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Giants vs. Patriots: Three Over/Under Predictions for Super Bowl XLVI

Chris TrapassoJun 7, 2018

America loves the Super Bowl, and they certainly love to bet on it. With the New England Patriots and New York Giants as evenly matched as they've ever been, we should be in for an epic game. 

Las Vegas thinks so. 

The current line for Super Bowl XLVI is set at minus-3 for the Patriots. 

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Bleacher Report Featured Columnist John Rozum recently ran through four of his own over/under predictions. Today, I touch on three others as we near the biggest Sunday in professional football.

Over/Under 180 rushing yards

Due to their elite quarterbacks and talented group of pass-catchers, it makes sense that the Pats and Giants are both pass-first teams.

Although infrequently utilized, their running back committees are capable of putting their own imprint on this Super Bowl.

Ahmad Bradshaw has revitalized the Giants' 32nd-ranked rushing attack since returning from injury late in the year, and BenJarvus Green-Ellis ran 15 times for 68 yards and a touchdown in New England's victory over the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC title game. 

During the season, the Patriots average 110.3 yards on the ground and the Giants averaged a meager 89.2. 

With the way New York is expected to attack the Patriots' weak secondary, this seems like a plausible over/under for rushing yards. 

With Rob Gronkowski, at the very least, slowed by an ankle injury, New England should run more than usual. The Patriots also should run more to help slow down the Giants' tremendous pass rush.

Danny Woodhead and Green-Ellis are underrated factors in this one, however, don't expect Tom Brady to hand the ball off 30 times. 

We'll come close to this many total rushing yards. 

Prediction: Just under

Over/Under 46 Total First Downs 

I'm going strictly by regular-season numbers here. The Patriots recorded a remarkable 399 first downs during the 2011 season, good for a hair under 25 per game. The Giants weren't bad either, moving the chains 331 times during the regular season, which averages out to 20.6 per game. 

Against the NFC's most intimidating defense in the conference championship game, New York played to its average and had 20 first downs. 

Facing the mighty Baltimore Ravens defense, Tom Brady and Co. had 25 first downs. 

Kind of crazy how close they were to their regular-season averages. 

I'm sticking to my earlier prediction of a Super Bowl XLVI shootout, so I'm going with the over. Although the Giants defensive line poses quite the frightening threat, I expect Bill Belichick and Brady to have installed a game plan that features a variety of short throws to get the ball out quickly. 

For once, they'll be the team looking to control the clock in an attempt to keep the opposing offense on the sidelines. 

I don't see Eli Manning and his ultra-talented group of wideouts having any trouble moving the ball or scoring on the Patriots secondary. 

Prediction: Over 

Over/Under 7 sacks 

The Giants pass-rush has received much deserved attention during these playoffs and in the two weeks leading up to Super Bowl XLVI. 

They should get to Brady, but it won't be as often as we think. Belichick is smart enough to realize his quarterback cannot be a sitting duck in the pocket, waiting for long-developing routes. 

New England's defensive line isn't nearly as dominant, but they can get to the quarterback. 

They have eight sacks during the 2011 postseason, only one behind the Giants. Yes, five came against a flustered Tim Tebow, but the Denver Broncos have one of the better offensive lines in the AFC. 

This will be close, but I see the total number of sacks falling just short of seven. For a specific prediction, I say the Giants get to Brady four times and the Patriots take down Eli twice.  

Prediction: Under 

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