Ranking Each Playoff Team's Chances of Making Next Year's Super Bowl
As the New York Giants, the New England Patriots and NFL fans gear up for Super Bowl Sunday, the 30 other NFL squads have a more distant goal they are starting to focus on: Super Bowl XLVII.
Of course, the teams that made the playoffs this year are the front-runners for next year's title, so this is a look at which teams should emerge supreme out of this already-talented pack.
On average, five playoff teams don't make the playoffs the following year, so I am picking the first five teams on this list for those slots.
The other seven, however, should all make noise next January.
Here are the twelve playoff teams from 2011-2012 in order of how likely they are to win Super Bowl XLVII (least likely to most likely).
I'm curious to know which non-playoff team you think has the best chance to win the Super Bowl next year and why, so please comment.
Denver Broncos
1 of 12There's no disputing that the Broncos had an epic season this year. After their 2-5 start, they won six straight games, putting them in position to make the playoffs even after losing their final three.
I'm of the persuasion that Tim Tebow got a lot more praise than he deserved, but that's a debate that's been trampled on again and again. The defense was phenomenal. When they were not, the Broncos struggled.
That said, the defense isn't getting any younger. Denver lost all four games that Brian Dawkins missed, and who knows how much longer he can be a factor. It's the same story with Champ Bailey, as the team lost three of the four games he missed.
I look for Denver to take an inside lineman or a cornerback early in the draft, because they will need their defense to be strong again with such a one-dimensional offense.
I pick the Broncos to go 8-8 again, but I don't think it will be good enough this time.
Cincinnati Bengals
2 of 12Andy Dalton is a nice young quarterback, and the defense had its moments this year, but the Bengals lost a lot of games in crunch-time this year.
You'd think that would have them higher on my list. They might be able to grab another few points here and there and boost their win total. Not so fast.
If Cincinnati doesn't re-sign Reggie Nelson, who performed well early and struggled late, they'll need someone else to fill that hole in the secondary. And although he didn't play due to injury, old man Bobbie Williams won't make much of an impact on the offensive line if he's re-signed. The Bengals have some serious problems to fix before they can contend in the AFC North.
It's always good to have two first-round picks in the draft, but I think it will take a while for them to have an impact. That said, I think they'll take a defensive back and something to help that rushing offense (either a running back or an offensive lineman).
Atlanta Falcons
3 of 12Their ho-hum 2011-2012 campaign was a disappointment to most fans, as the team looked poised to do damage in the NFC.
I think the Atlanta Falcons could be in some serious trouble this upcoming season.
Jason Snelling might not be back as support for Michael Turner. Center Todd McClure is still amazing, but he turns 35 in February, and that could spell injury or at least a little loss. Johnnie Abraham is no longer a force, and Kroy Biermann isn't doing much to help him. Curtis Lofton is going to be re-signed for a pretty penny, but Brent Grimes might be out of there.
Not only do I think the changes going on within the team may be detrimental to the Falcons' success, I'd be mighty scared of the young Carolina Panthers if I were them.
Pittsburgh Steelers
4 of 12Maybe I'm foolish, but I don't have the confidence in Big Ben that I used to.
His numbers are still quite good, although they have declined each of the last two years. My main concern is that his only full season was in 2008, and I don't trust him to stay healthy.
On top of that, the Steelers are going to need to find someone to replace Max Starks, who tore his ACL during the playoff game against Denver and probably won't recover quickly at his age.
The defense was phenomenal in 2011-2012, but I think this is the year age finally catches up with them.
In the draft I expect they'll take a linebacker or an offensive lineman early on.
Steelers fans are eternal optimists, as they should be following this team, so more power to them. I just don't see it happening this coming season.
New York Giants
5 of 12Maybe it's blasphemous to say the NFC Champions won't make the playoffs in 2012-2013.
Maybe it's not.
The Giants play in an absolutely brutal division where anything can happen. The NFC East has definitely been down, but I see the Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys really coming to play next year. That's the entire basis for my decision to put the Giants at this spot.
That and their running game is terrible. Thanks, Kareem McKenzie.
Maybe the return of Terrell Thomas will make a difference, but I'm guessing the difference will be minimal.
That said, I hope the Giants win the Super Bowl, and I even hope they prove me wrong next fall.
Look for them to take a linebacker or offensive lineman early in the draft.
Houston Texans
6 of 12What a fun team to follow in 2011-2012.
Quarterbacks were falling left and right, and yet they still somehow found a way.
In their division, I see them having no problem making the playoffs again next year.
The issues are going to be getting their free agent offensive linemen to stick around, keeping their quarterbacks safe and keeping Arian Foster rolling. Mario Williams is almost definitely leaving, which I think says more about the trust Houston has in their defense than about anything else.
I see the Texans taking anyone who will help their passing game in the early rounds of the draft.
I pick they go 10-6 and make the Divisional Round of the playoffs this time around.
Detroit Lions
7 of 12The Lions started the season unbelievably well, winning their first five games. After that they went 2-5 before rebounding to get to ten wins.
If Detroit can hold on to players like Stephen Tulloch and Cliff Avril, the defense is only going to get better.
The running game needs to improve vastly if the Lions want a better playoff outcome next year. They were ranked 29th in the league during the regular season and put up a league-worst 32 yards in their only playoff game against the Saints.
However, the passing game is good and getting better.
Detroit will be looking to take an offensive lineman or running back with their first pick of the draft.
I think they can win one more game than they did this past season, moving to 11-5 and becoming a threat in the NFC postseason. I don't see them taking over the Green Bay Packers' position in the division, but I do see them becoming more dangerous.
New Orleans Saints
8 of 12Drew Brees' contract is up, but everyone knows he's not going anywhere.
The man threw for 5,476 yards, shattering Dan Marino's record. On top of that, he threw for 46 touchdowns, had a passer rating of over 110 and led his team to 13 regular season wins.
My only concern about Brees is that the Saint might overwork him. He threw 63 times in the playoff game against the San Fransisco 49ers.
Aside from that, this team will have a lot of the pieces back that they need to make another good run in 2012-2013. Brees and Saints fans are hoping Marques Colston will choose to stick around instead of chasing money, but New Orleans will do everything they can to keep Carl Nicks. He is a fantastic run-blocker, and the Saints will want to keep improving their running game to protect Brees.
I don't see the Saints faring any better than they did this year, but they had a great year, so that's not a bad thing. I think they'll win their division with an 12-4 record.
New England Patriots
9 of 12The New England Patriots' organization is stellar, and it feels like the team has been and will be in Super Bowl contention forever.
I don't think it will be any different in 2012-2013, as Tom Brady and Bill Belichick don't seem to ever tire of winning. Even if they win the Super Bowl, I don't expect the team to lag next season.
Wes Welker should sign a nice contract for a few more years, but I'm concerned about New England re-signing a number of guys in their mid-30s. Although experience is great, this team is really getting up there with players like center Dan Koppen and defensive end Andre Carter.
The Patriots will look to infuse a little youth into the equation with two picks in the first round of the draft. I believe they may take two pass rushers.
Look for New England to have no problem taking their division again and making another good playoff scamper.
San Fransisco 49ers
10 of 12Is Jim Harbaugh a genius? What happened with this team?
The 49ers found something extremely sexy in 2011-2012, which was a 13-3 regular season record and their first division title since 2002.
And this is after a 6-10 season the year before.
What made the difference?
Alex Smith found his stride during a contract year, the run defense was by far the best in the league and they moved the ball well on the ground. Most importantly, they found ways to get it done in crunch time.
I look for San Fransisco to once again make it to the NFC Championship game.
If Ahmad Brooks stays, that will do wonders for the pass rush. Carlos Rogers is getting older but still has a few years left.
The Niners will probably take a defensive back with their first draft pick, since their main priority should be making the pass defense better.
Baltimore Ravens
11 of 12My pick to win the AFC in 2012-2013 is the Baltimore Ravens.
Ray Rice is going to get a big fat contract, and most of the offensive line should be back. Joe Flacco had a less-than-good year, yet the Ravens still did extreme damage. I can only imagine what could happen if he starts playing up to potential.
As far as the defensive side of the ball goes, Baltimore has to hang on to the likes of Lardarius Webb, Jarret Johnson and Cory Redding, because the experience of the defense could possibly show up as sluggishness sometime soon.
Really, the Ravens have so few holes that it is hard to pick something out for them to work on. I see them possibly taking an offensive lineman in the draft.
I pick the league's third-best defense to lead Baltimore to a division title with a 13-3 record and a spot in Super Bowl XLVII.
Green Bay Packers
12 of 12After a 15-1 regular season and an embarrassing playoff exit at the hands of the New York Giants, the Green Bay Packers will actually come into the 2012-2013 season with something to prove.
If they offer some good money to center Scott Wells (which they will do), they retain virtually every important piece of their team. Ryan Grant may not be re-signed, which won't make a huge difference for this pass-heavy offense.
I look for Green Bay to add a pass rusher or a defensive back early in the draft to help improve their league-worst pass defense.
Aaron Rodgers has solidified himself as an NFL superstar and should continue his success with a (hopefully) healthy WR Greg Jennings and a plethora of other offensive weapons.
In 2012, I expect this team to have a little less confidence coming out of the gate, but a much stronger finish. The Packers are my early pick to win Super Bowl XLVII.
Remember, comment with your opinion on which non-playoff team has the best chance to reach the Super Bowl next season.
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