Why the Detroit Pistons Will Be Lucky to Win Twenty Games This Year

After watching the highlights—or should I say lowlights—from the latest Detroit Pistons losing effort, I found myself daydreaming about the preseason. 

You know, the days of rampant optimism, when anything seemed possible. When one writer, I won't name names, predicted the Pistons could be a surprise playoff contender.

I also said that Terrico White could be a potential All-Star.

See what I mean, rampant optimism.

Delusions of grandeur caused myself, and many other fans, to overestimate the growth of this young team. 

The reality is this: the Pistons will struggle every night to be competitive with almost every NBA team. They simply lack the talent to do so.

In an article on Freep.com by Vince Ellis, Lawrence Frank admits that they are evaluating the Pistons' talent, but this takes time. As Frank says, "You can't make judgments after five, seven or 10 games, but over the course of a significant stretch you kind of figure out what you're going to get from each guy."

Translation: This is a year to find out who they will keep and who will get dumped. Contracts have already been given out to key players. Everyone else is being evaluated.

Do we really need in-depth evaluation to know that the Pistons are a bad team?

During their recent five-game losing streak against playoff-caliber teams, the Pistons looked like the Washington Generals taking on the Harlem Globetrotters. They never stood a chance.

The reason for this: they cannot consistently score and their defense is not good enough to make up for their offensive deficits.

The Pistons' potential for success does not project out well when you look at the rest of their schedule.

They will be lucky to win fifteen games the rest of the year. No, I am not channeling the spirit of Nostradamus. I am simply looking at their schedule and applying reality where I once applied fantasy.

Here is my unscientific method of predicting their final record.

The Pistons play six teams during the regular season that are in the same losing boat as they are. Milwaukee, Golden State and Houston are all 2-6 and they play Detroit six times combined.

Let's say that Detroit splits the series with all three teams and comes out of it with three wins.

Charlotte is 2-7 and the Pistons face them four times. Do you think Detroit can win three out of four? No, chalk up another two wins.

New Jersey is 2-8 and Washington is 0-8. Detroit faces each of them three times. I'm going to be generous and say Detroit can win two games apiece. So there are four more wins.

So those are nine wins against what you might consider all the bad teams on their schedule.

Now come the middle of the road teams; Sacramento, Cleveland, Toronto, Utah, Denver, Minnesota and New Orleans.

The Pistons play them a combined 13 times. They've already lost to Cleveland once—convincingly. I'm going to say the Pistons win five of those games. Again, I think I'm being generous.

That brings the Pistons' win total to 14.

The remaining 27 games are against playoff contenders from last year and teams that will likely contend this year. Should we expect the Pistons to win six more games against the elite teams in the NBA? The Miami Heats of the world?

 The Pistons already had one fluke win against Orlando. How many more of those should we expect?

Not very many when you consider their performance in three games against Chicago and New York. They lost by an average 21 points.

No, I think the Pistons have a 16 to19 win ceiling this year. That will make the season about as painful to watch as this.

It's all part of the growth process. That is what Frank and others will tell you. That might be true, but it doesn't make losing any easier.

Despite the shortened schedule, for Pistons fans this might be the season that can't end fast enough.