NFL Playoff Picture: Why Home-Field Advantage Is Extremely Important

Will home-field advantage prove true during the NFL’s Wild Card Weekend?

Usually, I’m a big believer in simply going with the best team. But I’m a bigger believer in, well—in believing.

And from that point of view, I find the reality of home-field advantage to be more mental than physical. If you believe in it, it works. It’s the pigskin placebo.

On Sunday’s NFL GameDay Morning Mooch and Company (yes, Steve Mariucci has proven to be the head honcho here), opened up the perennial home-field can of worms. This debate confirmed my positional theory on home-field advantage.

Among players, I have observed that viewpoints vary by position. Quarterbacks tend to think that the game is in their hands and focus on tangible benefits. The rest of the team is more metaphysical when it comes to game location.

Warren Sapp is evidently a believer. His position that playing at home is a huge advantage is based on two factors:

No. 1: Crowd noise will rattle the opposing offensive line and every penalty helps.

No. 2: The joy of routine: Sleeping in your own bed, driving in your own car, being at your own locker.

I think he has a point, but I also think that his years of success in Tampa Bay spoiled him into viewing winning at home as normal. Yes, I know he played in Oakland for four years, but I honestly think that he has blocked it out.

Former WR Michael Irvin went with the long view: It’s not having home field in the Wild Card game that matters, it’s having home field advantage and the bye week. It doesn’t matter if you have home field and win in the first round.

What matters is that, no matter what, you have to then go on the road and face the next team on their turf. And you have one more critical week of wear and tear.

Not only do the first two seeds have home-field advantage in the divisional round, they have the treatment-room advantage. I’m positive that he’s right.

Then there was QB Kurt Warner. The central piece in the “greatest show on turf” admitted that dome teams have a harder time outside in the cold. If Warner is willing to go on record with that point of view, I believe him.

And we all know that means we are thinking about the New Orleans Saints having to travel to Green Bay for a rematch—in January.

But that isn’t this week, so I will cross that icy bridge when we come to it.

If you’re a cerebrally-inclined former coach (and quarterback) like Mariucci, this weekend will be all about what Mooch termed the “weak division winners.”

He means Denver and Houston. You know it, I know it, the Broncos and Texans know it.

Houston is actually favored in their Wild Card matchup—courtesy of a still-tough defense. But Denver is a huge home dog. Eight-and-a-half points worth of dog as of Tuesday. Wow.

Coaches, analysts and pundits endlessly debate the “deodorant” ability of home field. It can undoubtedly cover a multitude of team ills.

Can playing at home carry a hobbled Houston offense over Cincy’s hot young QB/WR combo? And can the thin Mile High air do the impossible and hold the Steelers down long enough for some Tim Tebow Magic?

The 2011 NFL Playoffs Wild Card Weekend really has few mysteries:

No. 1: How well can T.J. Yates play and will he be replaced by Jake Delhomme as Houston’s QB?

No. 2: Will the Detroit/Saints score go over 100?

No. 3: How is Ben Roethlisberger’s ankle?

No. 4: Can the Denver home crowd possibly lift this passing-challenged Broncos team over the Steel Curtain?

I don’t know.

Just when we thought it was all stacked towards the Patriots at home, along came the upstart Jets. When Brett Favre seemed destined to lead the Pack to another Super Bowl, along came Eli Manning, red-faced Tom Coughlin and the tough Giants’ pass rush.

Let’s face it: Nobody knows. But that doesn’t stop us from examining the issue from every possible angle: numerical, to sociological to evolutionary.

 

Warren Sapp’s Familiarity Theory

The old saying “familiarity breeds contempt” certainly applies to football. Divisional opponents like the Ravens and Steelers, the Cowboys and Redskins know that the competitive fire burns especially brightly in their matchups.

But apparently stadium familiarity breeds comfort and confidence. In physical skills based partly on repetition and practice, routine can be critical. Everything from the morning shower and shave to exactly how you wrap your ankles matters.

Not to mention jetlag.

To quote Eli Manning after the 2007 Super Bowl season: “I’m not superstitious, but I’m a little ‘stitious" (via Grantland). (I know that he didn’t make that up, but I like it and it’s my article, so I’m leaving it in.)  

I’m willing to bet that most players and coaches have their own game-day superstitions—whether they’ll admit it or not.  

Surprisingly, familiarity seems to work for the road team, too, according to Pro-Football Reference. Basically, if you’ve played in a stadium more than once before, your chances of victory increase.

In first visits to an enemy field, road winning percentage is an average of .453 (against the spread). That number rises to .492 in the second visit and to .564 in the third.

By this logic, the Pittsburgh Steelers are going to (probably) have a statistical advantage both in the number of times that they’ll have gone to Ravens’ Field (I know it’s really M&T Bank Stadium, but I refuse to call a football stadium by a bank name) and in that old adage that you can’t beat a team three times in one season.

Of course, the guy who wrote this column looks like Horshack from Welcome Back Kotter. I’m not kidding. He also wrote an article on home field and overall team efficiency. I read it. We will not go there.

Dude, get a life.

Home Field by the Numbers

Everyone who knows anything about football and this argument knows that the home team wins an average of 57 percent of the time (via Quora among other sources).

That number shows up a lot in articles from 2009, but held consistent in just about every study I found. I wonder if the fact that the Colts and Saints both won their conference championships at home that year had anything to do with the proliferation of home-field advantage research?

It’s been quoted on every television show for two weeks. Seven percent surely doesn’t seem like much in the grand gridiron scheme of things, does it?

Standard NFL handicapping tradition spots a home team three points. But just because it’s standard, doesn’t mean that it’s true. Vegas is just as much about perception as the stock market, remember.

In fact, from 1999-2002 NFL home-field winning margins averaged only a touch over one point in the first two weeks of the year, but skyrocketed to over five points in the last two weeks of the season (via Two Minute Warning). 

As befitting statisticians, the article stops short of a proposed explanation.

I think it’s momentum and mindset. I don’t know about you, but I think that the New Orleans Saints have convinced themselves—and their fans—that they are unbeatable in 2011 in the Dome. So far, they’re right.

Home Field Psychology, Perception and Reality

NFL Films did one of their infamous Top Tens on the best home-field advantages in the NFL. I remember this one. The best part was the Seattle Qwest Field architect swearing that he didn’t intend to make the stadium particularly loud—just dry for the fans. Right.

And when it comes to weather, Lambeau Field in January is as daunting as Miami in September.

Plus, there are more people in the stadium than there are in the Wisconsin town. How’d you like to be the sheriff’s deputy that got the short straw for next week? Bummer. I mean, they do have someone on patrol, right?

I’m here to tell you that altitude matters.

I danced professionally at a venue over 5,000 feet up. Everyone in the company was completely gassed after one day of rehearsal.

So, the Denver Mile High myth—isn’t a myth.

That altitude has resulted in one significant physical advantage for the Broncos and Tim Tebow, particularly. Due to a medical condition, starting Steelers safety Ryan Clark cannot make the trip. That is the best news Tim Tebow has had since his first fourth-quarter comeback.

(The condition is not new and will not affect Clark’s playing ability should the Steelers advance.)

On the other side of the coin, I’ve been to Houston’s Reliant Stadium. The only mystique to which I can attest is that it is very fan-friendly, comfortable and there isn’t a bad seat in the house.

Other than that, I’m not really sure that the Houston arena has a character. Saturday would be a good time to find one.

Cincinnati is a tough Rust Belt team that plays in a place they call The Jungle. They have
an identity and they’ll bring it with them.

Perhaps it’s those stadiums with an identity that impart some of the advantage attributed to home field.

Who doesn’t think resurrection and hope when they see the Super Dome? How can you “hate” anyone in that building?

Unless, of course, you are a Falcon—they don’t seem to have a problem.

Who doesn’t see the ghost of Mean Joe Greene at Three Rivers? Yes, I know it’s a different place now and that Mr. Greene isn’t dead, but you know what I mean, right?

Then there’s the Meadowlands and the Big Apple. Now that place has an identity. It’s stocked with two sets of New York’s toughest fans. And that’s tough. Not to mention the wind chill and wind swirl.

If the Atlanta Falcons can come out of the Georgia Dome, fly up north to a field filled with cold wind and mean fans and pull off a win—they are a much tougher group than any of us think they are.

Remember what Kurt Warner said. I didn’t make this stuff up.

One final psychological note: There is some evidence that home field advantage extends to officiating.

It’s based on the fact that humans are social and referees don’t like to make the home crowd hate them.

See, I knew that those Dallas and Boston zebras were edging things their way!

Home Field and Evolution

Stay with me here: I’m talking about the evolutionary theory that all species are more aggressive on their own turf.

Frankly, I didn’t need a scientific report to tell me this, did you? Got a dog—or a boyfriend for that matter?

I ran across this idea that sports teams are perfect societal reflections of what scientists call the hawk-and-dove theory, according to Advanced NFL Stats.

Male hawks fight each other for access to female hawks.

Male doves apparently just wait each other out. Honest, the patient dove wins.

The conclusion has to do with the fact that neither approach works in all settings—kind of like differing game strategies in Home and Away settings to take advantage of the territorial instinct.

I’ll take the researchers word for it that this phenomenon results in humanity not wiping itself out because overly aggressive seizing of territory comes at too high a price in injury, and the aggressor frequently gets killed.

Hmm. Hear that, James Harrison?

Apparently, the male of the species actually produces more testosterone in a confrontation on their own home territory.

If this is physiologically true even to a tiny percentage, home field would indeed be something worth fighting for.

Home Field and Miracles

Statistically, home field plays the most significant role in a battle between two teams of even strength.

All of us who hope that simply playing at Washington's Fed Ex Field is going to reincarnate the 1990 Redskins are probably dreaming.

However, when two teams have a comparable number of strong and weak points, being on one's own home field has proven to be a much more dramatic factor in the NFL. When teams have similar win/loss records, that home winning balance shifts to 63 percent! (via Advanced NFL Stats)

Therefore, the Saints Super Dome crowd apparently has a real shot at giving New Orleans the winning edge and Big Blue’s nasty Meadowlands fans might just put a damper on Matt Ryan’s offense.

I continue to believe that invincibility is an attitude: New York and New Orleans have attitude to spare.

However, Houston Texans fans are going to need beer, hot dogs and a ton of enthusiasm to make sure that an essentially headless offense can win a playoff game with a really good running back.

Denver, you’re all going to have to clap your hands if you believe in Tebow. And yell really loudly. Maybe just bring megaphones.