Odds on Who'll Start at QB Next Season for Miami Dolphins

Since the season ended on Sunday, the Miami Dolphins have been busy attempting to remake their team for next season. 

Most of this has focused on who the next head coach will be. Since Monday the Dolphins have interviewed interim head coach Todd Bowles, Bears Special Teams coach Dave Toub and former Titans head coach Jeff Fisher. 

Another potential interview Miami might have lined up by the end of the weekend is with current Green Bay Packers offensive coordinator Joe Philbin; an interview which definitely has my seal of approval.

But amidst all of these interviews, one has to wonder: A.) Will the head coach matter if the Dolphins don't have a top flight quarterback and B.) who will be Miami's quarterback next season?

Those questions are as important, if not more important, than who is going to be their head coach. 

This matters because having a great quarterback can make your job that much easier. Look at Tom Coughlin with the Giants: if he didn't have Eli, would he even have a job this season, much less be in the postseason? That Giants team outside of Eli isn't what you would call "great" by any stretch.

The Colts are another great example: with Peyton Manning: nine straight seasons of 10 or more wins. Without Peyton: 2-14.

Getting a quarterback should be more important than finding a head coach. I have no doubt that had the Chad Henne-era somehow succeeded, Sparano would still be the Miami Dolphins head coach.

So who will be Miami's next quarterback? Who are the potential candidates, and what are the odds? Let's take a look.  

Andrew Luck: 1000 to 1 Odds

We'll start off with what many feel will be Miami's ideal situation. 

The Dolphins could theoretically trade up in the draft with Indianapolis for the No. 1 pick. However, Indianapolis has to make their move first: keep Peyton Manning (and pay him the $27 million they'd have to pay him if they do keep him) or let him go (and let him hit free agency and most importantly for Indianapolis, not pay him). 

We really have no idea where this is going, as Indianapolis has started to clean house. Bill Polian is out, and right now the highest ranking official is Jim Caldwell, who is likely to go as soon as a new general manager and president of football operations comes in. 

Colts owner Jim Irsay, however, does seem to be pro-Peyton, but even if they do keep Peyton, it will still take a lot for Indianapolis to give up the No. 1 pick. 

Will Miami pay the price asked for by Indianapolis? Or will they be a bit more conservative? Too many questions here, which makes Luck going to Miami as unlikely as it became on October 31st when they beat Kansas City to get their first of six victories this season. 

Matt Moore: Even Odds

Let us remember that Jeff Ireland is still general manager of the Miami Dolphins. Let's not get into the why's (which no one really knows other than Stephen Ross) or whether he should be or not (ask many Dolphins fans, such as myself, and we'll tell you very simply "no"), we just have to accept it as reality. 

With that in mind, there's a good chance that Matt Moore could be Miami's starting quarterback next season even if they trade up for Robert Griffin III or even Andrew Luck. 

Moore managed to finish the last nine games of the year with a 6-3 record as a starter, and in the 12 games where he started, Miami went 6-6. Moore's numbers were also very good: He completed 60.5 percent of his passes for 2,497 yards, 16 touchdowns and nine interceptions. He even showed good chemistry with Brandon Marshall at times and did a very good job of getting Charles Clay and Anthony Fasano further involved on offense. 

Those numbers, along with other glaring needs Miami must tackle during the draft (both safety positions and the right side of the offensive line), are reason enough to think that Miami might wait another season to draft a quarterback in the first round and give the whole 2012 season to Matt Moore in order to see what he can do in a full season. 

However, the reason against this is seen in 2010: Carolina attempted the same thing after Moore filled in well for Jake Delhomme in 2009. Moore's 2010 numbers: 1-4, completing 55.2 percent of his passes for 857 yards, five touchdowns and 10 interceptions. He was benched for Jimmy Claussen. 

Not exactly a ringing endorsement for Moore to be Miami's quarterback of the future. 

The other factor is that Miami might want to start off with Moore as their starter to at least begin 2012 even if they draft a quarterback, or he could even beat out a rookie for the starting job. Either way I'd set Moore's odds at even because it is likely he'll still be a Miami Dolphin come this July and might be seen as the best answer at starting quarterback in the short term. 

Robert Griffin III: 50 to 1 Odds

Andrew Luck is more of a "sure thing" which is why he'll go No. 1 in the draft. 

But when it comes to upside, Robert Griffin III has much more of it. 

This season in Carolina, Cam Newton showed that dual threat quarterbacks could not only survive in the NFL, but thrive. Tim Tebow in Denver even proved that a one-dimensional quarterback with nothing more than intangibles can somehow make the playoffs with a team with a very good (but not great) defense and a has-been at running back. 

Miami is a better team talent wise than both Denver and Carolina outside of the position of quarterback. Already they have offensive weapons in Brandon Marshall, Reggie Bush and Daniel Thomas, and already they have one of the league's better defenses. 

Miami would be the best place for Robert Griffin III, however due to their position in the draft, Miami would also have to trade up to get him, and if they trade anything other than future draft picks, it would likely be Jake Long or Brandon Marshall. 

But Griffin could be had for a lower price than Luck. St. Louis is more than willing to shop their draft pick around, but even if they don't, Minnesota picks third, and they feel safe with Christian Ponder as their quarterback of the future and it wouldn't cost as much to get the third pick as it would to get the second pick. 

Trading up for Griffin is more than worth it and won't destroy the Miami Dolphins (trading up for Andrew Luck would, by the way) but would instead energize the team, contrary to what this very well-written article might say. 

But will Jeff Ireland do it, or play it safe? Time will tell. 

Tony Romo: 400 to 1

This one has to do with Peyton Manning, but involves so many factors that it's not talked about. However, might as well bring about a theory I've had. 

The Dallas Cowboys main problem isn't at quarterback, it's on defense. However, Tony Romo has long been a scapegoat for their woes. To top it off, their head coach, Jason Garrett, doesn't seem to trust Romo too much, nor do many Cowboys fans. 

Jerry Jones does, but how long does that last if Peyton Manning is released by the Colts and becomes a free agent? If you're Jerry Jones, why wouldn't you go after Peyton Manning? Why wouldn't you want the chance to see a quarterback wearing that star on his helmet break all-time records? Why wouldn't he re-energize a team that might need it after missing the postseason in two consecutive seasons? 

Also why wouldn't the TV networks push for it themselves? Right there with Peyton going to Dallas, we have the first Sunday night game of the year in Giants versus Cowboys (or even first Thursday night game of the year if the Giants somehow can win the Super Bowl). This seems like a win-win, right?

Except Romo is under contract, meaning Dallas has to do something about him. One of the people who scouted him in Dallas? One Jeff Ireland. Odds are Romo wouldn't net a first-rounder, but two second-rounders would likely be in his price range. The Dolphins would also give him a raise, too. 

Right there everyone (except Dolphins fans who would be infuriated by the idea) would be happy. Dallas would get draft picks for Romo, Ireland would get a quarterback he scouted and will likely trust, Stephen Ross would get a perceived superstar to help sell tickets and Miami Dolphins fans get a brand new punching bag. 

Here's the funny thing: I'd actually like that deal from the Dolphins end of it. They'd still keep their first-round pick to use elsewhere, they'd get a quarterback who's tough as nails and was better this season than he's received any credit for and he'd have a huge chip on his shoulder. Automatically the Dolphins would have the second-best quarterback in the AFC East and would actually be a playoff contender. 

It could happen, but again, it depends on Peyton Manning and the Colts, especially if we enter the Peyton Manning sweepstakes, which as you'll see...

Peyton Manning: 100 to 1

...is a very likely possibility. 

Take everything I mentioned in the Andrew Luck slide and remember this: It will be unlikely for the Colts to get fair value on that pick. It's too much of a gamble to trade the No. 1 pick. 

If the pick is traded and Luck succeeds elsewhere, doubt will hover around the Colts organization for quite a long time. Jim Irsay knows this, and whoever takes over for Polian will know this, too. Even if Luck is a bust, thanks to the new rookie wage scale, it won't be a huge cap hit for the Colts and it will be something they can recover from. But, if they trade Luck and he thrives wherever he's traded, while Manning stumbles in his last couple of seasons with the Colts, then they might be set back at least five seasons. Manning's cap number won't help matters much either. 

So the safe thing for the Colts to do, and the likely thing, is Manning will be let go and allowed to start off fresh elsewhere. 

Three weeks ago in a slideshow I wrote about potential Manning destinations, I listed the Dolphins as "a very promising situation for Peyton Manning to enter into." I still hold that to be true.

Except the Dolphins will likely be competing with the Jets and Cowboys for Manning's services. Both teams have deep pockets and will be willing to spend the money on Manning, while the Dolphins can claim the same, the question is will they, especially with some of the other options available.

If the Cowboys get Manning than the scenario I provided in the previous slide will likely be in play, but if the Jets or any other team get Manning, here's an option for Miami to consider... 

Matt Flynn: 15 to 1

Of the free-agent quarterbacks, Flynn is the one Miami will most likely pursue. 

There will be questions as to whether or not he's just another Matt Cassel or Scott Mitchell (filling in on a good team for a better quarterback and striking it rich that way), but Green Bay doesn't seem to produce those kinds of quarterbacks. 

Look at the Packers' history of Brett Favre backups: Mark Brunell (starter on some good Jaguars teams that made two trips to the AFC Championship Game) and Matt Hasselbeck (Super Bowl appearance). 

That's pretty decent company to find yourself in. Because of that, I have a bit more trust in Flynn living up to those standards than sinking to Scott Mitchell levels. 

Miami will likely make a run at him, especially if they do hire Packers offensive coordinator Joe Philbin as their next head coach. He likely won't come cheap (there will be a bidding war between the Dolphins and possibly Redskins and Jets) but he would be just a tad safer than RG3 or Luck because he's been in the NFL for a while now and we've already seen what he could do (in only two games, but that's actually two more games than Brunell and Hasselbeck had with the Packers prior to joining their respective teams). 

That's why I gave Flynn decent odds: He's a tad safer, and more likely, but he's not the only free agent quarterback out there for the Dolphins. Just the best. If they do lose out on him, though, well the drop off in free agents is steep. 

Jason Campbell: 30 to 1

Jason Campbell started off the season as the Raiders starting quarterback. However, through no real fault of his own, he won't have the same job at the start of next season after suffering a season-ending injury caused the Raiders to trade for Carson Palmer. 

Campbell is going to be on the market and will likely go somewhere where he has the chance to fight for a starting job. Yes, Miami would be one of the places. 

Is that a bad thing? No, the Raiders did well with Campbell under center the last two years even though there were no playoff appearances. But is it the ideal? 

Absolutely not, but it's better than the rest of the options I'll name. 

Kyle Orton: 70 to 1

Let us reflect on the fact that most Dolphins fans called for Kyle Orton. Think about the cost (two draft picks) as well as the money he wanted, and realize that we dodged a major bullet. 

Why would Denver release him the way he did if he was as good as many Dolphins fans made him out to be last offseason? 

So of course it only makes sense that his name will be brought up in many discussions over who should be Miami's starting quarterback next season. 

My answer now is the same as then: Orton will be no different from what we have. If anything, he'd be a downgrade from Matt Moore (feel free to look up who had the better numbers this season). 

Still want Kyle Orton, Dolphins fans? Now's our chance to get another placeholder quarterback who's guaranteed to lead us to 7-9!

Chad Pennington: 800 to 1

This is still a possibility. A small possibility, but one none the less. 

Pennington wants to return this season. He had taken this season off after hurting his shoulder last season and then tearing his ACL during the offseason. 

But he's going to want to return, and Miami might make a play to get him back. 

Too many question marks there, why would they even consider it for reasons other than familiarity? 

I can't think of one either. I'd love to have him as an offensive coordinator, but as a starting quarterback or even backup? No thank you. 

He's still the better of two Chads though...

Chad Henne: 900 to 1

Chad Henne would like to return to Miami. In a normal season with less available quarterbacks, I would say it would happen. 

But not this season, not with how he started the year before getting hurt, not with the potential for what Miami can get. 

Simply put, while Henne might want to wear the aqua and orange next year, the aqua and orange faithful aren't too interested in seeing Henne back with Miami. 

In other words, please God, no!

But knowing the way that the Jeff Ireland-era Dolphins run things, we might have to brace for this possibility. 

So until then, um, let's go Heat!

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