Predicting MLB's 10 Biggest Headlines of the 2023-24 Offseason
Major League Baseball's 2023-24 offseason is here, and you can rest assured that there will have been plenty of headlines by the time it's over.
For now, let's talk about 10 storylines that will loom especially large.
Normally, the best way to do this would be a ranked list that checked each storyline off in ascending order of intrigue. But since it's not exactly a secret which hot-stove story will dominate the winter, it makes sense to simply start with that one and go from there.
In any case, up for discussions and predictions are the fates of the market's most prominent free agents and those of the top players on the trade market, as well as a potential rule change that's been in the zeitgeist recently.
Shohei Ohtani Will Get a Record Contract, but from Whom?
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The Storyline
The 2023 season did not end well for Shohei Ohtani.
He hit the last of his 44 home runs on Aug. 23 and oblique and elbow injuries ended his season on Sep. 3. The latter required surgery that will keep the 29-year-old off the mound for the entire 2024 season.
Yet none of this is going to stop the two-way star and soon-to-be two-time MVP from making record money. The general thinking, including for B/R's Kerry Miller, is that Ohtani's contract will land in the $500 million range. The current mark for a free agent is $360 million.
According to Jon Heyman of the New York Post, the list of favorites for Ohtani begins with a three-way tie between the Los Angeles Dodgers, Texas Rangers and San Francisco Giants, with the New York Mets and Boston Red Sox rounding out the top five.
Prediction Time!
Goodness is it tempting to pick the Rangers to sign Ohtani. They were a finalist for him when he first came over from Japan in 2017, and it's precisely because of their big-spending ways that they're now the World Series champions.
But the Dodgers simply have to be the team, right? They seemed to spend last winter positioning themselves to sign Ohtani this winter, and they certainly need him after yet another disappointing playoff exit.
So, yes, the Dodgers will sign Ohtani. And the guess here is that it'll be for two nice, round numbers: 10 years, $500 million.
Will Yoshinobu Yamamoto Also Get a Record Contract?
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The Storyline
Stateside baseball fans might know Yoshinobu Yamamoto from the 2023 World Baseball Classic, wherein he struck out 12 batters in 7.1 innings for Japan. That level of dominance was the norm for Yamamoto in seven seasons with the Orix Buffaloes, who officially posted him for MLB teams on Sunday.
Yamamoto is undersized at 5'10", 176 pounds, but he's only 25 years old and, per Kyle Glaser of Baseball America, considered an even better pitching prospect than Kodai Senga.
He's destined to make bank, in other words. Heck, he might even shatter Masahiro Tanaka's seven-year, $155 million deal from 2014 as the top payout for an international player.
Prediction Time!
That record is going down, alright. Contract projections for Yamamoto tend to fall in the $200 million range, including for Miller and Jim Bowden of The Athletic.
It's seemingly not a question of which teams have scouted Yamamoto, but rather which ones haven't done so. According to Heyman, both New York clubs, the Giants and St. Louis Cardinals were but four of 10 teams that flocked to see Yamamoto in August.
Also according to Heyman, it's the Mets who seem keenest on the right-hander. Senga is even willing to help in the recruiting effort, so I'll try my luck with a prediction that the following offer will seal the deal: seven years, $210 million.
Will Juan Soto Be the Best Player Traded?
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The Storyline
The offseason trade market, meanwhile, seems likely to revolve around Juan Soto.
Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported in October that the San Diego Padres are "internally leaning towards" dealing the three-time All-Star, who's due for free agency after 2024. That would allow them to dodge his projected $33 million salary.
That's not an unfair rate for a 25-year-old who's generally good for a .400 OBP and 30 home runs, but the Friars want to cut payroll, and now we know courtesy of Evan Drellich, Ken Rosenthal and Dennis Lin of The Athletic that the team even had to take out a $50 million loan in September to meet its obligations.
Prediction Time!
That Soto will get traded this winter seems to be an easy call, but to who?
Though Chris Kirschner of The Athletic says no talks with the Padres have taken place yet, Yankees are the most obvious suitor for Soto. No team needs a left-handed bat like they do, and they could hypothetically afford to extend him beyond 2024.
Other speculative fits for Soto include the Mets, Giants, Toronto Blue Jays and Seattle Mariners, but to spend any more time on possibilities other than the Yankees frankly feels like a waste of time. Here's thinking it'll happen.
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Will Corbin Burnes Be the Best Pitcher Traded?
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The Storyline
While Soto may be the best player traded this winter, potential options for the best pitcher traded include Shane Bieber and Dylan Cease. Yet the big prize figures to be 2021 National League Cy Young Award winner Corbin Burnes.
His relationship with the Milwaukee Brewers soured during the arbitration process last year, and the next one is projected to raise his salary from $10 million to $15.1 million. He'll then be due for free agency after 2024.
Yet just when a Burnes trade seemed inevitable, Brandon Woodruff had a shoulder operation that could knock him out for all of 2024. Do the Brewers dare trade Burnes now and render their starting rotation without not one, but two aces?
Prediction Time!
That last question is a good one, alright. But since the Brewers are the kind of team that must be pragmatic with its payroll, it may come down to what they can get for Burnes.
He should still have real value even after an up-and-down season, and the potential suitors for him out there are many. To name a couple, the Mets have the David Stearns connection, and the Red Sox have young hitters who could appeal to Milwaukee.
Then there's the Dodgers, who Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times says are expected to pursue Burnes. It's a great fit on paper now, and it would be perhaps the best possible deal to pair with an Ohtani signing.
Will Pete Alonso Be Traded at All?
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The Storyline
Ah, but what about Pete Alonso? The slugging first baseman has graced the Mets with a league-high 192 home runs since 2019, but the Mets don't seem to be in an all-in mood ahead of 2024, and Scott Boras is hinting at a huge price tag for extending his client.
Hence all the smoke concerning a possible trade, with most of it coming from the North Side of Chicago. The Cubs reportedly want Alonso bad, and it's possible the feeling is mutual.
To hear it straight from David Stearns, however, the plan is to open 2024 with Alonso still in a Mets uniform:
The Prediction!
This one feels like it could go either way...but I'll go out on a limb and guess that Alonso stays put.
Even if the Mets don't seem all-in on 2024, they have too much talent to treat it as a rebuilding year or even as a wait-and-see year. Especially if they do land Yamamoto, they're going to go into next season as contenders.
If it doesn't work out, maybe they'll trade Alonso ahead of next year's deadline. But if they decide they want to extend him for the long haul, that also works. Steve Cohen can afford it.
How Much Will Scott Boras Get for Cody Bellinger?
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The Storyline
Cody Bellinger's attempt to rehabilitate his value in 2023 was a success. After back-to-back injury-marred seasons with the Dodgers, he looked more like his former Rookie of the Year- and MVP-winning self in putting up an .881 OPS, 26 homers, 20 stolen bases and 4.4 rWAR.
Because Ohtani is only a designated hitter, Bellinger is the best true position player on this winter's free-agent market. His agent, Scott Boras, hinted in August that he expects demand to be "very, very high."
Yet as good as Bellinger's results were this year, his under-the-hood numbers raise doubts about whether he did it in sustainable fashion. That could be an issue in negotiations.
Prediction Time!
Even if he's no longer the slugger he was in 2017 and 2019, Bellinger is basically as if Brandon Nimmo could play first base in addition to center field.
The eight-year, $162 million deal that Nimmo got last year thus seems like a fair target for Bellinger, even if he only aims for the guarantee and not the years.
The Yankees are the best pure fit for Bellinger, but not as much if they instead land Soto in a trade. A return to the Cubs is otherwise in play, yet maybe the most intriguing spot for him is in San Francisco. The Giants badly need an impact hitter, and it so happens that Bellinger and president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi crossed paths in Los Angeles.
What Will Clayton Kershaw Do Now?
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The Storyline
As to other Dodgers luminaries, Clayton Kershaw's last turn on the mound was a joyous moment only for the Arizona Diamondbacks. They scored six runs on him while he got just one out in Game 1 of the National League Division Series.
He wasn't sure what would come next in the aftermath of the Dodgers' defeat, and his immediate concern now is his recovery after underdoing surgery on his left shoulder, which was a less-than-secret problem at the end of 2023.
Kershaw is "hopeful to return to play at some point next summer," which would seem to rule out retirement for the future first-ballot Hall of Famer. But even if that's the case, when he'll sign and with whom remain good questions.
Prediction Time!
Assuming he doesn't ultimately choose to retire, Kershaw's options will come down to re-upping with the Dodgers or returning home to Dallas to play for the Rangers.
"It's no secret," the 35-year-old lefty said last December. "There's only two teams that I would ever play for going forward. There's not a lot of leverage in that, obviously."
That the Rangers are now World Series champions adds a whole new layer of intrigue to Kershaw's choice, but it's one he doesn't necessarily need to rush. Since he won't be ready to pitch until next summer no matter what, here's thinking he pulls a Roger Clemens and signs in the middle of next season.
Will Snell, Nola or Montgomery Get the Biggest Contract?
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The Storyline
Even with Kershaw pretty much out of the mix for now, the free-agent market is still going to be stacked with top-end starting pitchers.
There could even be a two-time Cy Young Award winner among the bunch. Albeit for the first time in the National League, Blake Snell figures to win the award again after ripping off a league-best 2.25 ERA and allowing only 115 hits in 180 innings.
However, it's not a given that Snell will be the most coveted free-agent starter. Some favor Aaron Nola, while others favor Jordan Montgomery. Per Miller's projections, all three figure to be in the market for Robbie Ray-esque deals that guarantee five years and somewhere north of $100 million. But who will get what?
Prediction Time!
Even if Montgomery is a top-six pitcher by RA-9 WAR since the Yankees traded him last year, Snell is at the top of that list and Nola is sixth overall for the past six seasons.
It's therefore hard to see Montgomery scoring the biggest contract of the three, whereas Nola vs. Snell seems like a "take your pick" kind of thing. So, here goes nothing:
- Jordan Montgomery: 5 years, $100 million
- Blake Snell: 5 years, $125 million
- Aaron Nola: 5 years, $135 million
Fit-wise, the Cardinals seem like a shoo-in for Nola, and here's thinking the Rangers will want to keep Montgomery if they can't score Ohtani. As for Snell, well, just sayin': the Red Sox badly need a starter, and they know Snell can hack it in the American League East.
Will Josh Hader Make Edwin Díaz Money?
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The Storyline
The free-agent market isn't especially robust with relief pitching, but that only means that the biggest name looms especially large: Josh Hader.
The 29-year-old lefty has been an All-Star five times in seven seasons, racking up a 2.50 ERA and 15.0 strikeouts per nine innings along the way. His 11.7 rWAR in this span leads all relievers, including Edwin Díaz.
Could this mean that Hader will join Díaz in becoming only the second reliever to score a nine-figure contract? It's not an unreasonable proposition, especially considering that there are several deep-pocketed contenders that could use Hader.
Prediction Time!
Hader will get Díaz money, but maybe not in the way one would think.
Even if one buys that Hader is a proper peer for Díaz in terms of dominance, he's coming off his age-29 season whereas Díaz scored his five-year, $102 million deal with the Mets last winter off his age-28 season. It's a fair expectation that the market will shave a year off the guarantee but keep the average annual value, resulting in four years and $80-ish million.
As to the contenders who could use Hader, the Rangers and Yankees are possibilities but it's really the Phillies who come to mind. Were it not for Craig Kimbrel's late-inning misadventures in the NLCS, they likely would have advanced to the World Series.
The ABS Is Coming...But in 2024?
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The Storyline
Umpires are actually very good at calling balls and strikes, so it's unfortunate that their work behind the plate is only noticeable when it's bad.
Take Game 3 of the World Series, for example. Alfonso Marquez's strike zone was so wonky that it made headlines, and not undeservedly so given that it tipped the scales in favor of the Rangers to an egregious degree:
There isn't much doubt at this point that the automated ball-strike system (ABS for short) will have a hand in calling balls and strikes in the future. And with other new rules having proved to be such a huge success in 2023, maybe the time is now.
The Prediction!
Don't count on it, though.
The demand for the ABS seems to be there among MLB fans, but commissioner Rob Manfred has been pretty consistent with his stance that the system won't be ready for The Show in 2024. It still has kinks, which is to say nothing of the bigger question of whether it should make all the calls or if there should be a challenge system.
Manfred gets a lot of flack, many of it well deserved. But on his reluctance to force the ABS into the majors, he's in the right. Just as the pitch timer, the bigger bases and the shift ban weren't rolled out until there was ample evidence that they worked, that must also be the case with the ABS.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
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