Ranking Cody Bellinger's Top 10 Landing Spots Ahead of MLB Free Agency
The contract that Cody Bellinger signed with the Chicago Cubs did what it was meant to do, and now it won't be long before he benefits accordingly.
It was after the Los Angeles Dodgers non-tendered the erstwhile Rookie of the Year and MVP that the Cubs came calling with a one-year deal worth $17.5 million. It was a risk, as Bellinger hadn't even been a replacement-level player after struggling with various health issues across 2021 and 2022.
Mercifully, the 28-year-old was that and a whole lot more in 2023. He hit a career-high .307 with 26 home runs and 20 stolen bases, all while splitting his time between center field and first base.
Bellinger does have a $25 million for mutual option for 2024, but that's as good as declined. While speaking with Bob Nightengale of USA Today in August, his agent, Scott Boras, made no secret of the fact that he has high hopes for the player's latest foray into free agency.
"Demand is often created by rarity," Boras said. "When you have the rarity of age, the skill level, a five-tool player, a Gold Glove center fielder and first baseman who can run, throw, hit, and hit for power, that's a rare commodity in baseball.
"And the demand for that is very, very high."
With this in mind, let's discuss Bellinger's potential value in free agency and then speculate on 10 possible landing spots.
What Is Cody Bellinger's Value in Free Agency?
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There are two strings attached to Bellinger as he prepares to reenter the open market, including the fact that he's not the superstar he once was.
He debuted with what was then a National League rookie record 39 home runs in 2017, and he then blasted 47 two years later in his epic MVP-winning season. He was truly one of the top sluggers in Major League Baseball.
He's not that guy anymore, and maybe even more so than his results from 2023 indicate. His batted-ball metrics weren't just questionable, they were downright bad. His exit velocity was in the 22nd percentile and his hard-hit rate was in the 10th.
Still, all this would be a bigger concern if power was his only selling point. Boras is correct in his assessment that Bellinger has other skills to offer, such as his versatile defense, his athleticism and arm strength and a greatly improved bat-to-ball skill.
It'll be a surprise if Bellinger scores a long-term mega-contract worthy of Aaron Judge, Trea Turner and Xander Bogaerts. On top of the performance-related concerns, he's also eligible for a qualifying offer that will tie him to draft-pick compensation once he rejects it.
But at the least, it seems a fair expectation that Bellinger will replicate or even surpass the eight-year, $162 million deal that fellow center field fixture Brandon Nimmo signed with the New York Mets last year.
As for which teams could do something like that, let's ponder five long-shot possibilities and then five more-realistic landing spots.
Note: All wins above replacement ranks courtesy of Baseball Reference.
10-6: Twins, Astros, Marlins, Phillies, Cubs
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10. Minnesota Twins
Center Field WAR: 2.4 (T-17th)
First Base WAR: 1.4 (14th)
The plan, for now, is to have Byron Buxton back in center field in 2024 after persistent knee issues limited him to designated hitter duty throughout 2023. But if the Twins lose faith in that idea, they might just have the payroll flexibility to mount a pursuit of Bellinger.
9. Houston Astros
Center Field WAR: 3.3 (9th)
First Base WAR: 0.0 (27th)
This is, of course, assuming Bellinger doesn't still have hard feelings over 2017. But with 2024 looking like a potential "Last Dance" year for the Astros, it wouldn't be the biggest surprise if they signed him to solidify center field as part of an all-in effort for next season.
8. Miami Marlins
Center Field WAR: 1.3 (T-25th)
First Base WAR: 0.3 (26th)
There's no denying how well Bellinger matches with the Marlins from a roster-building perspective. He plays positions where they were weak in 2023, and he could only upgrade what was the NL's lowest-scoring offense. The question is whether they can afford him.
7. Philadelphia Phillies
Center Field WAR: 4.6 (4th)
First Base WAR: 0.8 (18th)
Though center field was ostensibly a strength for the Phillies this season, you don't let Brandon Marsh and Johan Rojas stand in the way of potential upgrades. Besides, Dave Dombrowski loves his stars, and one can imagine him wanting one more after the Phillies fell short of the World Series.
6. Chicago Cubs
Center Field WAR: 4.1 (5th)
First Base WAR: 0.4 (T-24th)
Jed Hoyer, the Cubs' president of baseball operations, says he would love to have Bellinger back. But with Pete Crow-Armstrong ready to take over in center and Pete Alonso reportedly on the club's trade wish list, re-signing Bellinger doesn't quite seem like a must for the North Siders.
5. Boston Red Sox
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Center Field WAR: 2.4 (T-17th)
First Base WAR: 2.5 (T-9th)
Between Masataka Yoshida, Jarren Duran and Alex Verdugo, the Red Sox already have three left-handed-hitting outfielders lined up in left, center and right.
If an opening is going to materialize, though, it could happen via a trade of Verdugo. The Red Sox were listening on him ahead of this summer's trade deadline, and his iffy relationship with manager Alex Cora may be an excuse for them to do so again this winter.
As much as the Red Sox could use Bellinger's bat, what they really need is his glove. Their minus-51 Outs Above Average was by far the worst such mark of 2023, so having a defender who could greatly improve not one but two positions would be huge.
If there's one problem with this idea, it's that Fenway Park favors lefty hitters with opposite-field power. That's just not Bellinger's jam, as he has all of three oppo homers in his career.
If there's another problem, it's that the Red Sox need arms even more than they need gloves. Especially in their starting rotation, wherein Brayan Bello and Chris Sale need better support than the likes of Nick Pivetta, Kutter Crawford and Tanner Houck.
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4. Toronto Blue Jays
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Center Field WAR: 5.0 (2nd)
First Base WAR: 2.3 (11th)
Center field wasn't a weakness for the Blue Jays this year, but that was largely thanks to a guy who's about to join Bellinger in free agency: Kevin Kiermaier.
Even Bellinger isn't as good of a center fielder as Kiermaier—nobody is, really—but he would ensure the Jays wouldn't lose too much on defense if they were to sign him. His offense, meanwhile, would be a step up on what Kiermaier had to offer from the left side of the plate.
That would be especially beneficial, as more from the left side is precisely what Toronto needs. This season saw it rank third from the bottom of MLB in exposure for lefty hitters, as well as 23rd from total production from lefty hitters.
Ah, but would the Jays be better off committing their money elsewhere?
Daulton Varsho is an in-house lefty who can play center field, and he's fresh off ending 2023 on an upswing with a .790 OPS over his last 50 games. What Toronto doesn't have in house is a ready-made replacement at third base for Matt Chapman, who's also a free agent.
3. San Diego Padres
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Center Field WAR: 1.9 (22nd)
First Base WAR: 0.5 (23rd)
This is where we get into "no need for speculation" territory, as Nightengale reported in September that the Padres are expected to be an "aggressive" suitor for Bellinger.
If there are reasons not to take this as gospel, one is that San Diego is reportedly looking to cut payroll and that, also according to Nightengale, it could even trade Juan Soto in order to make it happen.
Then there's what Bellinger may think of the Padres. Between recent reports of clubhouse and organizational dysfunction and manager Bob Melvin's departure for San Francisco, things aren't exactly all happiness and sunshine in San Diego right now.
But the fit, at least, is sound.
The Padres would have the option of starting Bellinger in center field over Trent Grisham or at first base over Jake Cronenworth, either of whom could move into a reserve role. And even if Soto does get traded, his bat would fit nicely alongside those of Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts and Fernando Tatis Jr.
2. San Francisco Giants
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Center Field WAR: 0.7 (29th)
First Base WAR: 3.0 (5th)
Like Bob Melvin, we're going right from San Diego to San Francisco.
The Giants are another team that's expected to be an "aggressive" suitor for Bellinger, according to Nightengale. That tracks, if for no other reason than the Giants pursuing top free agents has become an annual hot-stove rite of passage.
Though they failed in pursuing Giancarlo Stanton, Bryce Harper, Aaron Judge and (though not for lack of trying) Carlos Correa, it could help that their front office is run by a guy who has some familiarity with Bellinger. Farhan Zaidi, San Francisco's president of baseball operations, worked for the Dodgers when the two-time All-Star first came up.
One downside for Bellinger is that Oracle Park is a lousy place for left-handed hitters, and especially those with power. Over the last two years, only 13 percent of fly balls from lefty batters have left the yard there.
On the plus side, Bellinger seems like the type who could wear out Triples Alley in right-center field. And with so much ground to cover out in center, his defense would be more valuable in San Francisco than it would be most anywhere else.
1. New York Yankees
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Center Field WAR: 1.7 (23rd)
First Base WAR: 0.7 (T-19th)
A Bellinger on the Yankees? Why does that sound familiar? Oh, right.
Speaking more seriously, the Yankees are yet another team cited by Nightengale as a potentially "aggressive" suitor for Clay's kid. And to say that the fit is good would be putting it mildly.
Center field and left field were especially sore spots, but the entire Yankees outfield was so inept in 2023 that it ranked dead-last in WAR. Bellinger can help, and he'd also be an insurance policy at first base for Anthony Rizzo after a concussion ruined his 2023 season.
Just as crucial for the Yankees is the fact that Bellinger swings from the left side with a stroke geared for pull power. He would balance a lineup that skewed right this season, and Yankee Stadium's short porch could only help protect his power from what otherwise seems like inevitable regression.
Honestly, the hard part is thinking of anything so much as resembling a good reason for the Yankees to pass on Bellinger. Of all the moves they can make to move past this year's near-miss at a losing season, this is the most obvious.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
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