Early Corbin Burnes Trade Landing Spots After Brewers' Elimination in MLB Playoffs
Now that the Milwaukee Brewers' season is over, it's time to ramp up speculation about where Corbin Burnes might get traded this offseason.
Perhaps some skepticism is warranted here. Burnes has been at the center of trade speculation before, yet none of it ever went anywhere. It's as if the Brewers understand the value of keeping a Cy Young Award-winning hurler for themselves.
And yet, the two sides have long seemed headed for an inevitable breakup. Extension talks have been nonexistent and, much to the 28-year-old's chagrin, it was the Brewers who won a contentious arbitration hearing in February.
"Obviously, it's tough to hear. It's tough to take. They're trying to do what they can to win a hearing,'' Burnes told reporters at the time. "There's no denying that the relationship is definitely hurt from what [transpired] over the last couple weeks. There's really no way of getting around that."
If one can get on board with the notion this makes it fair game to ponder trade scenarios for Burnes, then let's get on with assessing his value and lining up potential suitors.
What Is Burnes' Trade Value?
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Remember when Burnes was one of the worst pitchers in Major League Baseball?
That was as recently as 2019, when he made 32 appearances and allowed 48 earned runs in 49 innings. But then he made some tweaks, including abandoning pitching from the windup and developing a cutter that would make Mariano Rivera blush.
Between Aug. 18, 2020 and the end of 2022, Burnes went a 68-start run in which he was perhaps the best pitcher in baseball by way of a 2.61 ERA and 5.5 times as many strikeouts as walks.
This version of Burnes wasn't always present in 2023, but he at least ended the season better than he started it. His final 16 outings yielded a more Burnes-like 2.72 ERA.
This plus the right-hander's track record will appeal to teams if the Brewers put him out there this winter, though a looming raise on his $10 million salary and date with free agency after 2024 would likely limit his suitors to teams with win-now windows.
It's likely to take one or more pieces of controllable talent—the Brewers especially need bats, but controllable arms are never a bad idea—to land Burnes in a trade, but some may find that preferable to doing a nine-figure deal with Blake Snell or Aaron Nola.
With all this in mind, let's run through 10 realistic possibilities for Burnes based on how bad they need him, what they have to offer and where their contention windows are. Trade proposals have been included for the top five.
Note: All starting pitching WAR courtesy of Baseball Reference.
10-6: Orioles/Reds, Yankees, Cardinals, Atlanta, Phillies
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10. Baltimore Orioles and Cincinnati Reds
2023 Records: 101-61 and 82-80
Starting Pitching WAR: 9.9 (T-13th) and 5.0 (26th)
The Orioles and Reds are worth lumping together because both have more young hitters than they need but are short on impact starting pitchers. But would either sell the farm for a guy who'd only be guaranteed to stick around for one year? It's a reach.
9. New York Yankees
2023 Record: 82-80
Starting Pitching WAR: 9.8 (15th)
Burnes and Gerrit Cole together in the same rotation? Sounds like fun, and the Yankees probably have a deep enough pool of young talent to make it happen. But if their focus this winter is anywhere other than on diversifying their offense, they'll be wasting their time.
8. St. Louis Cardinals
2023 Record: 71-91
Starting Pitching WAR: 4.1 (28th)
Maybe more so than any other team, the Cardinals have the biggest need for Burnes on paper. And like the Orioles and Reds, they have more young hitters than they need. The question is: Do they really want to send one or more of them to an NL Central rival?
7. Atlanta
2023 Record: 104-58
Starting Pitching WAR: 10.0 (T-11th)
This is probably an unexpected pick but, well, just look at the state of Atlanta's starting rotation right now. It's not good. If that results in an earlier than expected exit from the playoffs, a subsequent pursuit of Burnes would be them leaving nothing to chance for 2024.
6. Philadelphia Phillies
2023 Record: 90-72
Starting Pitching WAR: 13.6 (4th)
You know who loves to make big trades? Dave Dombrowski. And you know who's staring down an offseason in which his team could lose Aaron Nola? Also Dave Dombrowski. You know who also has prospects to deal? Also-also Dave Dombrowski.
5. San Francisco Giants
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2023 Record: 79-83
Starting Pitching WAR: 10.0 (11th)
The Giants technically got good starting pitching in 2023, but a fun game to play is trying to name how many different pitchers made starts for them throughout the year.
The answer is 13, and only Logan Webb and Alex Cobb were any kind of reliable. And that's only kinda-sorta true of Cobb, as the 35-year-old developed a hip impingement in June and ultimately posted a 4.85 ERA over his last 16 outings.
It's more likely that the chatter around the Giants this winter will concern how they can boost their offense, but any lineup additions they do make may prove fruitless if they don't also boost their rotation. And to this end, they might as well aim high.
Trade Proposal: San Francisco Giants get RHP Corbin Burnes; Milwaukee Brewers get LHP Kyle Harrison
At least from Milwaukee's perspective, this would be a convenient trade. Out would go a talented veteran pitcher, and in would come a much younger talented pitcher. Despite his control issues, B/R's Joel Reuter has Harrison ranked as the No. 21 prospect in baseball.
But from the Giants' perspective, wouldn't this be robbing Peter to pay Paul? Maybe they would do it if they're unconvinced that said control issues will ever go away, but it's a little premature to make that judgment. Harrison is only 22 years old.
4. Boston Red Sox
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2023 Record: 78-84
Starting Pitching WAR: 10.4 (10th)
The Red Sox's starting rotation may have snuck into the top 10 of MLB for WAR this year, but that's to be taken with a veritable mountain of salt.
Boston's starters finished in the bottom 10 of the league with a 4.68 ERA, with June serving as the only month in which their monthly ERA so much as slipped under 4.48. Only Brayan Bello had a good year, and even he was only seven percent better than average.
To be sure, probably nothing can happen until the Red Sox hire a new front office leader after firing Chaim Bloom. But whoever that is should see both the club's need for a No. 1 starter and its excess of controllable hitters and put two and two together.
Trade Proposal: Boston Red Sox get RHP Corbin Burnes; Milwaukee Brewers get CF Jarren Duran and 2B Nick Yorke
The Brewers finished second-to-last in the National League in slugging even before they managed just five runs in a sweep at the hands of the Arizona Diamondbacks in the Wild Card Series, so they clearly need bats.
They'd get two solid ones in this trade, as the speedy Duran is fresh off a breaking out in 2023 and Yorke is a former first-rounder who Reuter rates as the No. 90 prospect in MLB. But if the question is whether Milwaukee can do better, the answer is yes.
3. San Diego Padres
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2023 Record: 82-80
Starting Pitching WAR: 12.3 (5th)
Starting pitching was indeed something the Padres generally didn't have to worry about this year, but the primary reason for that could soon be out of the picture.
That, of course, is Blake Snell. Despite his MLB-leading 99 walks, he's the front-runner for the NL Cy Young Award after also leading the league with a 2.25 ERA. He's likely to command a huge contract in free agency, and doing one of those doesn't square with San Diego's reported goal to cut payroll.
Yet if the Padres would rather not have Snell go un-replaced, a trade for Burnes would be right up general manager A.J. Preller's alley. And since 2024 could conceivably be the end of the line for him, Bob Melvin and Juan Soto in San Diego, why not go all-in?
Trade Proposal: San Diego Padres get RHP Corbin Burnes; Milwaukee Brewers get LHP Robby Snelling, OF Samuel Zavala and 1B Nathan Martorella
It's doubtful that the Brewers would be able to get at Ethan Salas' (MLB's No. 6 prospect) or Jackson Merrill (No. 13), but they'd hardly be settling with this deal. Snelling (No. 31) and Zavala (No. 93) are both top-100 types and Martorella could be the long-term first base solution the Brewers badly need.
The catch for Milwaukee is that none of the three is necessarily major league-ready just yet. Even if they do trade Burnes this winter, one assumes the goal would still be to put a winning team on the field in 2024.
2. Los Angeles Dodgers
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2023 Record: 100-62
Starting Pitching WAR: 6.9 (23rd)
It was quite the fall for the Dodgers' starting pitching from 2022 to 2023. Whereas they ranked first in ERA for the former, they slipped to 20th in the latter.
The good news is that Walker Buehler should be fully recovered from Tommy John surgery come Opening Day of 2024, but that alone shouldn't clear the Dodgers from looking for starting pitching this winter. Especially, that is, if Clayton Kershaw decides to hang 'em up.
For his part, Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman isn't above taking big swings on the trade market. And if there's any lesson to be learned from the Mookie Betts trade, it's that a deal for a pending free agent need not be a one-year commitment.
Trade Proposal: Los Angeles Dodgers get RHP Corbin Burnes; Milwaukee Brewers get C/1B Dalton Rushing and RHP Nick Frasso
The Dodgers' farm system ended 2023 in a worse spot than the one it started in, but Rushing (No. 54) and Frasso (No. 71) both check in among the top 100 prospects in baseball. The former has a mighty stick and the latter has a plus-plus fastball.
It sounds good up until you consider that, just as he's blocked by Will Smith with the Dodgers, Rushing would be blocked by William Contreras with the Brewers. Moving him to first base full time would be a way around that, but it would also lessen his long-term value.
1. New York Mets
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2023 Record: 75-87
Starting Pitching WAR: 12.0 (6th)
The Mets are only a few months removed from trading Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer and others in a full-on detonation of their $350 million roster, so it's not exactly a given that they'll be in a trying mood this winter.
Then again, they've already hired David Stearns and everyone and their uncle is expecting Craig Counsell to also come from Milwaukee to take Buck Showalter's place as the Mets' manager. And even if this year didn't work out, the Mets have too much talent to rebuild.
If the Mets go for it and endeavor to seek support for Kodai Senga in their rotation, one can easily imagine Stearns working his Milwaukee connection to bring Burnes aboard. And this time there would be no need to get cheap on Burnes, as Mets owner Steve Cohen is a fair bit wealthier than Brewers owner Mark Attanasio.
Trade Proposal: New York Mets get RHP Corbin Burnes; Milwaukee Brewers get SS/2B Ronny Mauricio and OF Ryan Clifford
If this trade sounds familiar, it's because it also appeared in a round-up of trade proposals that appeared in this space earlier this week. As they say, there's no need to fix what ain't broken.
In Mauricio, the Brewers would get a powerful and speedy offensive threat who they could plug in right away. Clifford is probably two years away, but he showed in hitting 24 home runs in 115 games this year that he's plenty powerful in his own right.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
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