Projecting the Price Tags for Top MLB Free Agents of 2023-2024 Class
At some point in the next few months of the Major League Baseball offseason, Shohei Ohtani is going to become an extremely rich young man.
How rich, though?
And who else in this year's class of free agents could be headed for a serious chunk of change?
For the 10 players most likely to sign megadeals this offseason, we've put together predictions for what those contracts will look like. (As well as one man's opinion on the likely landing spot for each of those soon to be well-paid commodities. Feel free to grade me on both halves when all is said and done.)
Players are presented in alphabetical order by last name.
Honorable Mentions
1 of 11
Clayton Kershaw, LHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
As far as career accolades are concerned, Kershaw is the only player in this year's free-agent class anywhere close to Shohei Ohtani, arguably even ahead of the two-way wonder in light of his three Cy Young awards.
But Kershaw might retire. Or if he does come back, it's only going to be on a one-year deal, likely around the same $20 million salary that he banked in 2023.
Sonny Gray, RHP, Minnesota Twins
Like Kershaw, there's a chance that Gray—who turns 34 next week—might retire. At any rate, he wasn't willing to rule out the possibility back in July.
If he does opt to return for at least one more year, getting Gray would arguably be a bigger deal than getting Eduardo Rodriguez, Lucas Giolito or even Jordan Montgomery, considering Gray just had a phenomenal season with a 2.79 ERA.
However, Gray is at least three years older than everyone in our top 10, each of whom is projected for at least a four-year contract. At best, he's probably looking at a three-year, $65 million deal.
Rhys Hoskins, 1B, Philadelphia Phillies
Hoskins missed the entire 2023 campaign after suffering a torn ACL late in spring training, but he is still probably the fourth-most coveted hitter in this year's class, behind only Ohtani, Cody Bellinger and Matt Chapman.
Among the 135 players with at least 2,500 plate appearances since the beginning of 2017, Hoskins' .846 OPS ranks 28th, just ahead of Xander Bogaerts and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.; just behind Austin Riley and Kris Bryant. But given the injury, he's probably the player most likely to accept the (estimated) $20.5 million qualifying offer this year, hoping to prove himself healthy in 2024 before striking it rich with a multi-year deal next offseason.
Marcus Stroman, RHP, Chicago Cubs
Like both Kershaw and Gray, Stroman (32.5 years young) is firmly rooted in the proverbial back nine of his career and highly unlikely to get any sort of long-term deal. And that would have been the case even if he hadn't fallen apart from both a production and a health point of view in the second half of 2023.
At this point, he might just accept the $21 player option to return to the Cubs in 2024. But if he does leave Wrigleyville, it'd hard to see him getting more than three years and/or $20 million per year in free agency.
Julio Urías, LHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
Two months ago, Urías would've rivaled Yoshinobu Yamamoto for top pitcher in this year's class. But that went out the window when Urías was arrested for alleged domestic violence in September—for the second time in his career. Even if the charges are dropped and he's allowed to return to MLB by Opening Day 2024, there's simply no chance the 27-year-old gets the type of lucrative, long-term deal that was previously expected.
Cody Bellinger, 1B/CF, Chicago Cubs
2 of 11
2023 Stats: .307/.356/.525, 26 HR, 97 RBI, 20 SB, 4.4 bWAR
2023 Salary: $17.5 million
Spotrac Market Value: Five years, $112.6 million
There has been a whole lot of talk in the past few weeks about the questionable nature of Cody Bellinger's batted-ball metrics. Based on his below-average exit velocity and hard-hit percentage, Baseball Savant suggests that Bellinger should have been a .270 hitter and a .437 slugger.
But how about the fact that he was at least hitting the damn ball again in 2023?
After whiffing in more than 27 percent of his plate appearances between 2021-22, Bellinger finished this season with a 15.6 percent strikeout rate much more in line with how well he was seeing the ball when he was named NL MVP in 2019 (16.4 K rate).
And, OK, let's temporarily accept that he should have hit .270 and slugged .437. Those are still 2023 Paul Goldschmidt (.268 and .447), Alec Bohm (.274 and .437) and Adley Rutschman (.277 and .435) numbers, and better than what the other noteworthy position player in this year's class accomplished—Matt Chapman hit .240 and slugged .424.
Why are people acting like Bellinger is destined to spend 2024 and beyond hitting as poorly as Trent Grisham and Javier Báez did this year?
Sure feels like a bit of an over-forced narrative by some team hoping to drive down the price of Bellinger to a point where they can afford him. But it's not going to work. After a bounce-back season for the ages, the 28-year-old is going to easily hit nine figures on this contract.
Our Projection: Six years, $138 million with a $25 million club option for 2030
Likely Landing Spot: New York Yankees
Matt Chapman, 3B, Toronto Blue Jays
3 of 11
2023 Stats: .240/.330/.424, 17 HR, 54 RBI, 4 SB, 4.4 bWAR
2023 Salary: $12.5 million
Spotrac Market Value: Six years, $103.4 million
With three Gold Gloves and consistently some of the best defensive metrics in the business, Matt Chapman will be coveted for what he provides on that side of the ball.
And with 155 home runs since his career began in 2017, there's no question that Chapman also has some power that you hope will pay dividends in the middle of the lineup. (In the same seven-year window, Houston's Alex Bregman has just two more home runs than Chapman despite nearly 400 more plate appearances.)
The problem is the batting average, the strikeout rate and the streaky nature of his power.
Counting March/April as one month and September/October as one month, there have been 18 months of regular-season baseball in the past three years. And in 10 of those months—more than half—Chapman hit .202 or worse with four or fewer home runs.
It's fun when he's hot, but woof when he's not.
Chapman also turns 31 in April, so you have to at least wonder with a long-term deal when his defense starts to slip. Not for nothing, Nolan Arenado turned 32 this past April and wasn't even named a Gold Glove finalist this year after winning 10 straight.
All that said, quality third basemen don't come cheap.
Manny Machado, Rafael Devers, Nolan Arenado and Anthony Rendon are signed to contracts worth a combined $1.1685 billion at a rate of $32.46 million per season. Even with the batting average concerns, Chapman has been at least two-thirds or three-quarters as valuable as each of those hot-corner peers and deserves to be paid accordingly.
Our Projection: Five years, $115 million
Likely Landing Spot: Los Angeles Dodgers
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Lucas Giolito, RHP, Cleveland Guardians
4 of 11
2023 Stats: 184.1 IP, 4.88 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 10.0 K/9, 1.6 bWAR
2023 Salary: $10.4 million
Spotrac Market Value: Four years, $47.5 million
Four years, $47.5 million??
Oh, how the mighty have fallen.
Heading into 2023—and even at the All-Star break—Lucas Giolito seemed destined for a nine-figure contract. But immediately after turning 29 in mid-July, his season went downhill in a New York minute, allowing 24 home runs in his final 72 innings pitched with a 7.13 ERA; some of it with the White Sox, some with the Angels and some with the Guardians.
After receiving Cy Young votes in each of 2019, 2020 and 2021 with cumulative marks of 3.47 ERA and 1.08 WHIP, Giolito has plummeted to 4.89 and 1.37, respectively, over the past two seasons combined.
Had he hit free agency last offseason, he would have made a ton of money, considering it had only been one rough season and considering the only pitchers to fetch at least $87 million last winter were Jacob deGrom and Carlos Rodón.
But now—after back-to-back disappointing years and in a free agent cycle with quite a few ace-caliber pitchers available—his market may have drastically changed.
If Spotrac's estimation is correct and Giolito wouldn't even get $12 million per year on a four-year contract, I don't think there's any chance he takes that deal. He would be better suited betting on himself on a one-year, $15 million type of deal (maybe something with a player option for a second year) rather than locking in at a not-great rate through his age-33 season.
However, I suspect he gets considerably more than $12 million per year. (The latter few years of the deal might be club options, though, just in case.)
Our Projection: Three years at $19 million per year, plus $21.5 million club options (with $3 million buyouts) for each of 2027 and 2028, making this a three-year, $60 million contract that could be worth up to five years, $100 million.
Likely Landing Spot: Texas Rangers, assuming they are unable to re-sign Jordan Montgomery and assuming they lose Andrew Heaney, who figures to decline his $13 million player option
Josh Hader, LHP, San Diego Padres
5 of 11
2023 Stats: 56.1 IP, 1.28 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 13.6 K/9, 2.4 bWAR
2023 Salary: $14.1 million
Spotrac Market Value: Five years, $87.8 million
Last offseason, the Mets and Edwin Díaz made history with that record-setting five-year, $102 million contract. It was both the largest total contract ever given to a reliever (previous record was $86 million to Aroldis Chapman in 2016) and the largest annual salary ever given to a reliever (previous record was Liam Hendriks at $18 million per season on a three-year deal.)
But considering Josh Hader has been more dominant throughout his career than Díaz, considering the absolutely massive role closers have played this postseason and considering the next-best closer on this year's market is, I guess, Craig Kimbrel, Hader is probably headed for an even bigger contract.
The southpaw with a career ERA of 2.50, WHIP of 0.94 and K/9 of 15.0 did have a two-month-long rough patch in the middle of 2022, but he bounced back in a big way this season.
His adamant refusal to pitch multiple innings was a major talking point toward the end of the 2023 campaign, but that's nothing new. Hader has pitched multiple innings just once in the past three calendar years, getting a rare four-out save in Game 2 of last year's NLDS against the Dodgers.
But as long as you're good with never wanting to use him as a "break in case of emergency" option in the eighth inning, there's really no one better in the game today.
Our Projection: Five years, $105 million with a $20 million club option for 2029
Likely Landing Spot: Los Angeles Dodgers
Jordan Montgomery, LHP, Texas Rangers
6 of 11
2023 Stats: 188.2 IP, 3.20 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 7.9 K/9, 4.1 bWAR
2023 Salary: $10 million
Spotrac Market Value: Six years, $110.4 million
The final chapter of Jordan Montgomery's 2023 season has not yet been written. He could still end up being the hero of the game that secures the first World Series title in Texas Rangers history. Should that happen, both his legend and his value on the open market would grow even more.
But here's what we do know thus far: Montgomery has logged at least 150 innings pitched with a sub-3.70 FIP in each of the past three regular seasons. Here's the full list of pitchers in that club: Gerrit Cole, Kevin Gausman, Zack Wheeler and Montgomery.
Pretty decent quartet there.
Montgomery also entered the World Series with a career postseason ERA of 1.99 in 31.2 innings pitched. That's admittedly a small sample size, but he has shown this October that he can thrive when the lights are brightest.
But until he pitched those seven shutout innings in Texas' first game of this postseason run, Montgomery was on track to become maybe the biggest bargain in free agency, woefully underappreciated at a national level as he just kept churning out solid starts for the Yankees, Cardinals and Rangers.
It's probably going to cost at least $20 million per year to get him at this point, up from more like a $15 million rough estimate a month or two ago. But if Montgomery gets an AAV below those of Eduardo Rodriguez and Lucas Giolito, it's still a serious bargain.
Our Projection: Five years, $105 million
Likely Landing Spot: Chicago Cubs
Aaron Nola, Philadelphia Phillies
7 of 11
2023 Stats: 193.2 IP, 4.46 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 9.4 K/9, 2.1 bWAR
2023 Salary: $16 million
Spotrac Market Value: Six years, $147.1 million
Two big things you have to assume you're getting with Aaron Nola are good health and a great K/BB ratio.
Since the beginning of 2021, only Gerrit Cole and Sandy Alcantara have logged more innings pitched than Nola's 579.1. And among the 57 pitchers with at least 400 innings of work in that timeframe, Nola rules the roost with a 5.84 K/BB ratio.
His ERA (4.09) wasn't stellar in those three seasons, but that can largely be attributed to a combination of Philadelphia's woeful corner outfield defense and an unusually poor strand rate. Nola's peripherals have always been quite good, though, only once in his nine-year career (2019) posting an xERA or an xFIP of 3.80 or worse.
And after a rough start to this season in which it looked like he had lost his strikeout touch, he started pitching much better in early June—not coincidentally, right when the Phillies began to turn their season around.
With the possible exception of Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Nola should be the highest-paid pitcher in this free agency cycle. He probably won't get a seven-year deal even with his long track record of never missing a turn through the rotation, but he will be well compensated on a five-year or six-year contract.
Our Projection: Five years, $140 million
Likely Landing Spot: New York Yankees
Shohei Ohtani, DH/RHP, Los Angeles Angels
8 of 11
2023 Stats: .304/.412/.654, 44 HR, 95 RBI, 20 SB; 132.0 IP, 3.14 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 11.4 K/9, 10.0 bWAR
2023 Salary: $30 million
Spotrac Market Value: N/A
It's kind of funny that Spotrac's algorithms won't even venture a guess at what Shohei Ohtani is going to get in free agency, but that's just a testament to the uncharted waters we're in with the two-way superstar likely headed for at least half a billion dollars.
Unless you've been living under a rock for the past few months, you already know that Ohtani's two-way nature will be a one-way street in 2024. He won't be pitching at all this coming season after undergoing surgery on his elbow. But the expectation is that he'll be able to hit with no restrictions before hopefully returning to the mound in 2025.
At any rate, that's what teams are going to need to bet on when putting together their best possible offers to Ohtani.
It could end up being an incentive-laden deal where he gets something like $350 million guaranteed for 10 years, plus $100,000 for every inning pitched over the duration of the contract. Pitch enough to qualify for an ERA title, and that's at least an extra $16 million for that season. Don't pitch at all and, well, he'd still be one of the highest-paid hitters in the sport.
It would be a unique deal to say the least, but it's a unique situation.
For our projection, though, we're just going to assume it's an entirely guaranteed contract, because the Dodgers certainly aren't going to shy away from offering him a ton of cash.
Our Projection: 10 years, $520 million
Likely Landing Spot: Los Angeles Dodgers
Eduardo Rodriguez, LHP, Detroit Tigers
9 of 11
2023 Stats: 152.2 IP, 3.30 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 8.4 K/9, 3.5 bWAR
2023 Salary: $15 million
Spotrac Market Value: Five years, $102.5 million
Officially, we still don't know if Eduardo Rodriguez will reach free agency. He has a player option to return to Detroit for three more years and a total of $49 million.
But considering Spotrac projects he could get a nine-figure contract this offseason, we almost have to assume he will decline that player option and cash in on what was arguably his best season yet.
For most of his career, Rodriguez looked like a solid No. 3, maybe a low-end No. 2 starter in a rotation. He consistently posted an ERA in the 3.80-4.80 range and a WHIP in the 1.28-1.39 range.
However, he went at least seven scoreless innings on six different occasions in 2023, putting up borderline ace numbers in spite of a finger injury that cause him to miss all of June. Had he stayed healthy, he might have started the All-Star Game for the American League.
It bears mentioning that Martín Pérez was in a similar boat heading into last offseason. His career norms were a bit worse than Rodriguez's before his out-of-nowhere incredible year, but Pérez reverted to normal this year, even losing his spot in Texas' starting rotation after the trade deadline.
That's something Rodriguez's prospective buyers will need to consider, but it definitely won't stop him from getting more money than he would by staying on his current contract with Detroit.
Our Projection: Four years, $76 million, plus a $20 million club option (with a $4 million buyout) for 2028
Likely Landing Spot: Baltimore Orioles (career 2.48 ERA in 12 starts at Camden Yards)
Blake Snell, LHP, San Diego Padres
10 of 11
2023 Stats: 180.0 IP, 2.25 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 11.7 K/9, 6.0 bWAR
2023 Salary: $16.6 million
Spotrac Market Value: Five years, $117.5 million
After winning his first Cy Young award in 2018, Blake Snell signed a pre-arbitration, five-year, $50 million extension with Tampa Bay.
And after presumably winning his second Cy Young award here in a few weeks, Snell should be headed for a five-year deal worth more than twice that amount.
Durability is a bit of a concern, though. 2018 and 2023 were the only years Snell logged at least 130 innings, both because of injury/illness and because he rarely lasts into the seventh inning of a start, on account of the sheer volume of pitches it takes to average roughly four walks and 11 strikeouts per 9 IP.
Because of that, teams who already have an expensive pitcher who can't seem to ever stay healthy—Dodgers (Kershaw), Yankees (Rodón), Red Sox (Sale), etc.—might be a little reluctant to offer top dollar for Snell when the much more durable Aaron Nola is available.
If the Mets are willing to spend a lot of money again this offseason, Snell would be a good fit in Queens alongside Kodai Senga.
But our guess is he stays in the NL West with the Giants, who are still trying to make up for whiffing on Aaron Judge and passing on Carlos Correa last offseason. At any rate, Logan Webb's rubber arm can help offset Snell potentially taxing the bullpen.
Our Projection: Five years, $115 million
Likely Landing Spot: San Francisco Giants
Yoshinobu Yamamoto, RHP, Orix Buffaloes
11 of 11
2023 Stats: 171.0 IP, 1.16 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 9.3 K/9
2023 Salary: N/A
Spotrac Market Value: N/A
Assuming Yoshinobu Yamamoto gets posted by the Orix Buffaloes, this just might be the most intriguing bidding war of them all.
By no means is that a suggestion that Yamamoto could get paid as much as Shohei Ohtani. He won't even get half as much money as his World Baseball Classic teammate.
But he might/should get the largest contract in the non-Ohtani tier of free agents.
That's partially because he's so absurdly talented. No matter what professional league you're playing in, a 1.16 ERA in 171 innings pitched is unreal. And it wasn't even that unusual for Yamamoto, who now has a career 1.72 ERA in a little under 1,000 innings over the past seven years.
It's also partially because he's so darn young. Every other noteworthy free agent is at least 28 years old, but Yamamoto just turned 25 in August. He represents the exceedingly rare opportunity to sign a free agent to a seven-year deal without a reasonable amount of fear that he'll be completely washed up by the end of that contract.
As mentioned in other articles over the past couple of months, Yamamoto's situation is almost identical to that of Masahiro Tanaka from a decade ago. Then just 25, Tanaka got a seven-year, $155 million deal with the Yankees—which equates to more like $220 million after factoring in the past decade of MLB inflation.
Our Projection: Seven years, $210 million
Likely Landing Spot: New York Mets
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