New York Giants: 4 Keys to Beating Dallas, Plus Week 17 ATS Picks

The playoffs are starting a week early for the top two teams in the NFC East, with the New York Giants hosting the Dallas Cowboys Sunday night at MetLife Stadium with stakes that couldn’t be much higher. The winner is crowned division champion and hosts the Detroit Lions or Atlanta Falcons in a wild-card playoff game next weekend. The loser is done for the season.

Both teams come in 8-7, with the Giants currently holding the tiebreaker advantage thanks to their 37-34 come-from-behind win at Arlington on Dec. 11.

“Obviously Dallas is coming in, we’re both playing for the same thing, for the same prize, so we know we’re going to get their best effort,” Giants quarterback Eli Manning said earlier this week to Stats LLC. “We have to match that and play better football.”

Both teams have injury questions. For the Giants, defensive end Osi Umenyiora was listed as limited but practiced on Wednesday and Thursday after missing the last four games with a high ankle sprain.

“It is a playoff game,” Umenyiora told ESPNNewYork.com.

“There is no question that I want to be out there and I would play if it is my decision but it is going to be up to them. We will just wait and see. Everything is going to be up to Coach (Tom) Coughlin, it is going to be all his decision. If they need me to play, if they want me to play, I feel like I might be able to.”

Dallas, meanwhile, has health concerns at the quarterback position, where Tony Romo has been bothered by a bruised hand that he suffered on the first Cowboys possession in their 20-7 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles last Saturday.

According to Stats LLC, the biggest concern for Dallas coach Jason Garrett is the swelling in Romo’s hand. But Romo said he was able to accomplish some things in practice that showed he was making progress.

“I was able to do some things with the ball that we weren’t sure about so it was a good start to the week,” Romo told Stats LLC on Wednesday. “We are going to keep working on it and get all the treatment and stuff. We should be good to go for this weekend.”

Romo has had a stellar season, with 29 touchdown passes to just nine interceptions for a career-best 102.2 passer rating—fourth-best in the league. But Romo was bypassed in this week’s Pro Bowl selections in favor of Manning.

Manning is also having a solid year, with a career-high and team-record 4,587 passing yards, fourth in the league, and has led the Giants to five fourth-quarter comeback victories, tied for the most in the league.

The last comeback Manning engineered was the one at Cowboys Stadium three weeks ago. Manning threw for 400 yards and led the Giants to two late scoring drives to rally the Giants from a 12-point deficit.

Also on the injury front for New York, Stats LLC reported wide receiver Hakeem Nicks didn’t practice Wednesday, but declared his sore hamstring would be good enough to play, and Mario Manningham could be back for the Cowboys after the receiver missed last week’s win over the New York Jets because of a balky knee.

Here are the four keys to a New York victory along with my Week 17 picks against the spread.

Use Both Backs

Ahmad Bradshaw has looked healthier the last two weeks and can be a difference-maker as a runner and as a receiver out of the backfield. Most importantly, though, is the work Bradshaw can do in pass protection.

Brandon Jacobs is a different type of runner than Bradshaw with his huge size (6'4", 264) and speed, making him an absolute load to bring down in the open field.

A running game can also help the Giants keep the ball out of Tony Romo’s hands—the Giants were dominated in time of possession against the Jets, but overcame that because of Mark Sanchez’s mistakes.

Win Up Front

The Giants offensive line doesn’t exactly conjure up the image of those solid units from the 1980s or even the group that played together so long just a few years ago. It’s not a particularly physical group, and the running game has struggled as a result.

However, the offensive line did well against Dallas the first time around, handling the Cowboys front seven well enough for Brandon Jacobs to run for more than 100 yards.

The Middle of the Field Is Where the Big Plays Are

The Cowboys have trouble defending the middle of the field. Outside of Sean Lee, their inside linebackers are weak in pass coverage and have limited range.

The safeties for Dallas are also very pedestrian as pass defenders. Even if tight end Jake Ballard can’t go, Eli Manning should be able to exploit the middle with Travis Beckum and slot receiver Victor Cruz.

Foil Felix

Dallas’ run defense wasn’t the only one that struggled in the teams’ first meeting. Big Blue had a tough time stopping the Cowboys on the ground, as Felix Jones ran for more than 100 yards after replacing injured DeMarco Murray early in the game.

But Jones is nursing a hamstring, and third-stringer Sammy Morris may be shouldering the load in the running game, a prospect that changes the Cowboy offense pretty dramatically because Morris has almost no ability to cut back or break a run off wide the way Jones can.

The Picks

There are two weeks in the regular season that scare the hell out of me as a prognosticator: Week 1 because I don’t know anything yet, and Week 17 because it can be so difficult to tell which teams are going to put a stamp on their game and mail it in. So with that in mind, here are the picks for Week 17 (gulp!), with home teams in CAPS.

VIKINGS (-1) over Bears: In much the same way we learned unequivocally how important Peyton Manning is to the Indianapolis Colts, the Bears are winless since Jay Cutler broke his thumb.

SAINTS (-8) over Panthers: New Orleans is 7-0 at home, and they average about 300 points a game in the Superdome (that figure is unofficial based on what it seems like).

PACKERS (+4) over Lions: Vegas thinks it’s onto something here, installing Detroit as the favorite at a place they haven’t won at in 20 years.

RAMS (+11) over 49ers: St. Louis was feisty in defeat against the Bengals last week, and this is a rivalry that goes back more than 60 years and three cities (Los Angeles, Anaheim and St. Louis).

TEXANS (+3) over Titans: I just don’t trust Tennessee.

Bills (+11) over PATRIOTS: New England will win, but their defense will keep it close.

Jets (+2) over DOLPHINS: Gang Green will win one for Rex and then hope the stars align for a third straight playoff appearance.

JAGUARS (-4) over Colts: Dan Orlovsky winning three games in a row might be the type of thing the Mayans were talking about for 2012.

EAGLES (-9) over Redskins: Too little, too late for Philadelphia, but the Eagles’ll at least get to .500.

Chargers (+3) over RAIDERS: Speaking of trust issues, is there any particular reason I should trust Carson Palmer at this point?

Chiefs (+4) over BRONCOS: Kansas City is trying to win one to keep Romeo. Denver looked so very awful in Buffalo that it’s hard to keep the faith.

CARDINALS (-3) over Seahawks: Winner gets a surprising .500 finish.

FALCONS (-12) over Buccaneers: Tampa Bay has been mailing ‘em in for about a month now.

Ravens (-3) over BENGALS: Baltimore gets its wish: home games in the playoffs.

BROWNS (+8) over Steelers: Call it a hunch.

GIANTS (-3) over Cowboys: Big Blue gets a home playoff game and, most likely, a whoopin’ from either the Lions or Falcons as a reward.

Last week: 8-7-1

Season: 130-96-12