NFL Playoff Predictions: Top 5 Overachieving Teams Sure to Choke in the Playoffs

The NFL playoff picture is becoming much clearer as we enter the last three weeks of the regular season. The overall favorite is obviously the undefeated Green Bay Packers, but there are others that are getting Super Bowl talk.

The road to the Super Bowl on the AFC side is pretty much wide open with the normal favorite Indianapolis Colts being 0-13 right now. There’s not a clear-cut favorite with the rest of the teams due to all having very visible weaknesses.

The Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens are duking it out for the AFC North crown and the loser will most likely be getting the fifth seed.

The New England Patriots are getting lots of talk, but their defense is struggling so bad they may get ousted early.

The Houston Texans have clinched their first playoff berth in franchise history, but they’re going forward with a third string quarterback.

If you want to look on the NFC side of things, the New Orleans Saints seem to be the biggest threat to the Packers, but they struggle to play outdoors.

The two wild card spots will be won by teams backing their way into the playoffs instead of making headway and gaining momentum going into the playoffs.

This is really the first year in a long time that there’s really no clear cut Super Bowl matchup looming. This slideshow though is a list of the top five teams that really have no shot at the big game in Indianapolis.

Denver Broncos

If the NFL playoffs started today, the Denver Broncos would be the AFC West Champions and the fourth seed in the AFC side of the bracket. That’s remarkable compared to where they were around mid-season.

With Tim Tebow, the Broncos have only lost one game this season. I think they will continue the upward success and make the playoffs due to him and the strong defense.

Unfortunately, I do think the Broncos miracle run will end in the wild card round of the playoffs.

The playoffs are all about how well your team is playing and matchups. Due to the Broncos getting the fourth seed, they will play the fifth seed in the AFC which will most likely be the runner-up in the AFC North division, and that’s either going to be the Baltimore Ravens or the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Those two teams match up a lot better with the Broncos than the ones that they have beaten. The Ravens and Steelers both rank in the top five in total defense and will be able to stop the run up front and stay back in the secondary to thwart any attempt at the pass.

This will shut down the new offense the Broncos are running. The Broncos defense on the other hand has played great thus far, but I don’t think they will shut down the Ravens or the Steelers enough to pull out the win.

They can’t afford to play awful until the fourth quarter, and try and make a miracle comeback. Both teams defenses are far too strong, and they both have great running games to eat up the clock and put points on the board.

It’s been a great turnaround so far for the Broncos, but I do think it ends in the wild card round.

New England Patriots

This will be largely unpopular with the Patriots faithful, but I just don’t see how this team will win a playoff game. The Patriots' defense is far too weak to stop anyone, and the offense is very predictable and easily can be stopped by a team with a good defense.

Tom Brady is nearing the end of his career soon, and I’m not buying into him. I never have and I still won’t. If he’s blitzed and pressured a lot, he’s far too inaccurate. I think the knee injury he suffered a few seasons ago scares him. He’d rather take the quick drop than risk taking another hit.

That being said if you blitz him like crazy, you best have the secondary to stop the open receivers.

New England runs a lot of short out routes, or likes to hit guys in the middle of the field. Rarely will Brady go deep. He will hit open guys short and they make the plays to gain the yards.

If you blitz Brady like crazy and play tight coverage, those open receivers all the sudden aren’t so open.

The New York Giants and Pittsburgh Steelers proved this true this year and in the past, and I fully expect this to happen again.

New England is most likely going to get the No. 2 seed in the AFC playoffs, which gets them a first-round bye and a home Divisional playoff game. Looking at the matchups so far they most likely will get to play the Houston Texans in the second round.

The Texans match up great with the Patriots and I think they can beat them in Foxboro. Houston was built to stop another great passer and that’s Peyton Manning and the Colts. They’ve fared well the last few years due to being built this way.

The new 3-4 scheme that the Texans took on with new defensive coordinator Wade Phillips has improved this defense tremendously. They will bring tons of pressure, and have the personnel to stop New England’s receivers. It could be a long day for New England’s offense in this potential game.

On the other side of the ball the Patriots rank dead last in defense. They’ve given up over 400 yards to opposing teams almost every game including the last two against the miserable Washington Redskins and Indianapolis Colts.

They can’t stop the run, and are even worse against the pass. The Texans even with a third string quarterback will exploit this. Their run game is far too good for New England to stop, and this will set up big pass plays.

The Patriots have wide receivers playing in the secondary for crying out loud.

This will be true for any team New England plays in the playoffs even if it’s not the Texans.

As of today, technically, the Patriots would be the three seed and Houston would be the top seed, but with New England’s favorable schedule and the strength of Baltimore and Pittsburgh, I think Baltimore will get the one and New England the two seeds.

If New England ends up in the three seed and they play the Jets for the third time this year, I think the Jets will end up winning.

It’s tough to beat a team three times in a season. The Jets knocked out New England last year, and I expect them to use the same scheme.

New York I think will do a better job of stopping the pass and they seem to be getting the offense rolling again. This will be a tough matchup for New England.

New Orleans Saints

This is hard for anyone to imagine with how well the Saints are playing, but I do feel they will choke in the playoffs. You look no further than last year to see that they can choke.

New Orleans got upset in the wild card round last year to a bad Seattle Seahwaks team. This year, though, I do think New Orleans advances to the second round, but I also think they will get beat.

As of now, New Orleans is in the three spot in the NFC and would face the Detroit Lions in the wild card round at home. This will be a rematch of the Sunday Night game a few weeks ago. I think it will be the same kind of game in the playoffs. Detroit is far too inexperienced, and the Superdome will be rocking.

If you advance New Orleans to the next round, they play at San Francisco. This one will be tough.

New Orleans struggles away from home, and they aren’t built for an outdoor game. They lost last year on the west coast in Seattle outdoors, and I expect the same this year against the 49ers.

New Orleans is only 3-2 outdoors this year, and they look totally different outside. The offense is great indoors when weather and playing conditions isn’t a factor, but get them outside and they struggle.

San Francisco on the other hand is great at home. They have a great defense which ranks first in points scored, and hasn’t allowed a rushing touchdown all season. They also have their offense working great and don’t turn the ball over much.

New Orleans may have the topped ranked offense, but they rank 27^th on defense. This team struggles in the secondary and they don’t force many turnovers. They also rank 30^th out of 32 teams against the pass, and that could be trouble.

All of those reasons will be why San Francisco should have no trouble with New Orleans in the divisional round.

If the matchups change, they will have a shot with three of the six teams playing indoors counting themselves, but I don’t see it happening

Detroit Lions

As stated in the slide prior, the Lions would have a rematch with the Saints in the Superdome if the playoffs started today. The fact the Lions are even considered for this list has to make Lions fans somewhat happy. Any playoff talk and the Lions is good for the Detroit fans.

This year is a far cry from the NFL record 0-16 season a few years ago. The Lions were picked to do good this year, and despite a recent bumpy road, they’re still in good shape.

This team is up and coming, and wanting to prove they’re not a fluke. Unfortunately, this year’s team will be a one and done in the playoffs.

The Lions are tough and physical, but they just don’t have the experience it will take to win against any of the NFC playoff teams especially the Saints.

The Saints proved a couple of weeks ago against the Lions they’re hard to stop. If this game was played in Ford Field in Detroit, I’d say the Lions definitely have a shot.

To win in the playoffs, you must get defensive stops, and have a solid run game. The Lions have a great defense, but struggle to hold their cool, and their run game currently ranks 24^th.

That’s not going to get it done against a statistically bad Saints defense.

The Lions do have some young talent to build around, and with the playoff run and another solid year in the draft, I think the Lions will be a force next year. This year though they will most likely choke.

 

Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons were considered to be a Super Bowl favorite out of the NFC coming into this year. They had the best record in the NFC last year, and with everyone returning to the team and even adding wide receiver Julio Jones in last April’s draft, it only added more attention to them.

This year, though, they've been way too inconsistent for all the talent that they have.

The offense  has struggled at times, and the defensive pass rush has been horrid. The pass defense ranks 22nd in the league. This can be a problem since a first round road matchup with division rival New Orleans Saints or the New York Giants loom.

Both teams have great passing games and the Falcons won't be able to slow them.

Once strength on the defense is the stopping the run. The Falcons rank fifth in the league against the run which could be key if they advance past the wild card round, but a matchup against the Saints or Giants in the first round will be tough.

The offense starting it's stride around midseason, but it's still too up and down.

Teams are getting to Matt Ryan too easily, and that's causing turnovers. The run game is also down compared to last year, and they rank 18th in the league.

It's been stated many times, but in playoff games you have to gain a ton of stops on defense, and be able to run the ball effectively on offense to advance. This Falcons team has done none of the above, and if defense continue to get to Ryan, it could be bad.