Red Sox Trade: Trading for Mark Melancon to Be Closer Will Backfire

The Red Sox have acquired Astros closer Mark Melancon to replace the departed Jonathan Papelbon as the team's closer this coming year.

The Red Sox sent infielder Jed Lowrie and pitching prospect Kyle Weiland to Houston in the deal.

In his first season closing games, Melancon appeared in 71 games, converting 20-of-25 save opportunities while posting a 2.78 ERA and 8.0 K/9 mark.

Melancon was originally a member of the Yankees organization and was acquired at the deadline in 2010 as part of the Lance Berkman deal.

While he enjoyed a breakout season last year, there is more than a little cause for concern in the Red Sox's decision, as they have passed on the likes of Ryan Madson, Francisco Rodriguez and trade target Andrew Bailey of the Oakland A's to go with a far more unproven commodity in Melancon.

His numbers look good on the surface, but looking a bit deeper throws up more than a couple red flags.

For one, he had a terrible 8.64 ERA against the American League, albeit in just 8.1 innings of work, as he seemed overmatched in interleague play.

The more troubling stat, though, was his 4.68 ERA and 1.81 WHIP against teams with a winning record, as he was little more than an average middle reliever who happened to be pitching in the ninth inning when teams over .500 came to town.

When it comes to the AL East, there could be four teams over .500 this season with the Blue Jays getting better by the year. Throw in the Angels, Rangers and Tigers as three more teams certain to be over .500, and the likes of the Indians and Twins who could be right in the thick of things too, and more nights than not Melancon will be closing out games against teams with winning records.

With Daniel Bard moving to the rotation, there is one less option to step in should Melancon flop, which could be a positive since he won't have someone breathing down his neck, but also on a bigger scale is a huge cause for concern.

If he proves unable to close, Bobby Jenks, Felix Doubront and perhaps Michael Bowden could get a look, and no one in that group screams out lock-down closer.

There is no question that Melancon comes cheaper than the big names still on the market, as he will earn the league minimum in 2012 and is not arbitration eligible until 2014. However, he is also already 27 years old, and he is likely as good as he is going to get, so having him under team control doesn't mean as much as if he were a young prospect.

Giving up Lowrie to acquire him doesn't hurt too much, as he will get a chance to start in Houston but profiled more as a utility infielder in Boston.

The bigger loss is Weiland, a third-round pick in the 2008 draft, as he was one of the organization's top starting pitching prospects and one of the first in line to join the rotation should injury strike. He's not a front-line starter down the line, but he is a solid bottom-end guy, and losing him hurts the team's starting pitching depth, an area that was already thin.

In the end, this could simply be a matter of the Red Sox looking to fill out the back end of their bullpen, and the team could still have their sights set on signing Madson or dealing for Bailey. But as of now, Melancon looks like the man heading into the 2012 season, and that should leave more than a few Red Sox fans uneasy.