Why the New York Giants Will Still Win the NFC East

There is arguably no tighter divisional race in the NFL than the NFC East, and with six weeks left, the pressure on the New York Giants and the Dallas Cowboys has been turned up a notch.

I should probably mention the Philadelphia Eagles in that list too, with their season still alive by a thread, but I didn't because that thread will be cut by Brady and his boys this weekend. You might want to say that the AFC West is tighter and on paper, you're correct. It is tighter. But when all four teams pose no serious threat to the Superbowl or even Conference Champion, it's really not that tight.

Early front-runners in the division, the New York Giants have now been reeled in by the Dallas, who with a last-second win over Miami, now lead the division by a game and many believe they will not be caught by anyone in the run home.

I don't think it's that black and white. Not at all. Historically, the Giants' do go on their December slide and end up being another one of those teams that promised so much but delivered so little. I just wouldn't be so quick to write of Eli and his merry men just yet in the divisional race. And with a week-by-week analysis, here's why the New York Giants will still win the NFC East.

Week 12: @ New Orleans

After Dallas almost managed to blow a win against the Miami Dolphins, they move to 7-4 in the division, leaving the New York Giants needing to win against the Saints at home to stay level. I may be a dreamer, but I'm not Santa Claus, and the Giants will drop one here and move to 6-5.

Drew Brees is still on pace to take down Dan Marino's single-season yardage record, and will be licking his lips at a Giants team that gave up two touchdowns to Vince Young. The Saints' offensive line will be strong enough to hold New York's D-line, who were unable to gain enough presence when they lost to the Eagles. This is coming from the team that still leads the league in sacks; they'll be looking to do better in this one.

The reason why Eli will come up short in this one is the lack of a running game—i.e. the lack of an alternative to throwing the football. The 83.2 yards they're averaging a game will not be anywhere near enough against the Saints, a team that has shown its weakness in defending the run.

Eli Manning does not a bounce back game, but I don't think it will be here. He may well pull it off like he did against the Patriots; I just can't see him putting up enough points to match that of Brees and the explosive offense he has going with him.

Standings:

Dallas Cowboys (7-4)

New York Giants (6-5)

Week 13: Home to Green Bay

Yup, here's the big one. The Giants, coming off now three straight losses, have to face the undefeated Packer machine. Whilst daunting, many see this game as the only remaining obstacle to the Packers going 16-0 for the season, so there has to be some hope in this one for the Giants. However, the fact of the matter remains that the Packers are not the team you want to be playing when you need a win.

In the same way that the New Orleans Saints will expose the Giants' pass defense, Aaron Rodgers and the Packers will do the same. Rodgers is completing at a higher percentage for more touchdowns with less interceptions. The real problem will be their inability to stop the Packers completing their mid-range throws, with the Giants allowing 36 throws of 20-plus yards.

Manning will be able to put yards up on the defense, but won't be able to put up enough points. Which for me is OK. The Giants will go in to this game as the underdogs and won't be able to pull out a win here. Their fans need to know that with two games to come against Dallas though, that the season is not over. And they will be geared up more than ever for that.

For Dallas, I think they beat the Cardinals, though there may be an upset brewing. Dallas struggled at home against Miami, and Arizona in Arizona may be a tough obstacle to overcome. We've seen that the Cards can turn it on at times, such as the win over Philly. I still think Dallas gets through though, even if it does take another game-winning field goal, and go two games clear in the division race.

Standings:

Dallas Cowboys (8-4)

New York Giants (6-6)

Week 14: @ Dallas

The tough run continues for another week, now facing Dallas in a game that could potentially either make or break the momentum of either side. New York pulls a big game back on Dallas in this one and all the psychological momentum with it, and here's three reasons why they do it.

1. The Giants are coming off three straight losses.

I know this is an odd point to come off, but the Giants love to gear themselves up for games when they've been kicked in the dirt a little bit. Coughlin is a tough mentor and will be leaving no doubt in these guys minds what this game means. Now this may in turn have led to a win over New Orleans / Green Bay in the previous two weeks, though probably not, but it will be a shock for a Dallas side that looks lethargic in recent weeks.

2. Tony Romo has the tendency to be Tony Romo.

Whilst solid in recent weeks, Romo still has the ability to throw games away. Miami at home on Thanksgiving should have been a walkover, but they almost managed to blow it, thanks in part to Romo throwing two interceptions early in the game. Manning and the Giants better than the Dolphins and have the ability to score points if you keep giving the ball. Given enough hype—which this game has—and enough pass pressure, which the Giants have, Romo will be back to his old habits and it will hurt Dallas. 

3. Other possibilities.

Say something has occurred in the previous two weeks other than what we've assumed. Suppose that Dallas loses to Arizona. You've now got a shaky quarterback, a fragile defense and this game decides who takes the lead in the division. Advantage Giants. Suppose also that the Giants manage to take down either the Saints or the Packers. Not only does this give Manning confidence, it gives the defense confidence in that it was able to restrict an offensive powerhouse. They will be itching for Tony Romo and his passing game then. Either way, advantage Giants.

Standings:

Dallas Cowboys (8-5)

New York Giants (7-6)

Week 15: Home to Washington

And the Giants finally get some well-deserved rest from their tough run with a home game to the Redskins. But I wouldn't be so quick to rule out the Skins in this one, and if the Giants slack off here, they'll throw out their chances at winning the game and probably throw out their divisional chances with it.

However, they only poor throwing that will occur in this game will be done by Rex Grossman, or whoever plays for the Redskins. The Giants running game will be improved in this one as Washington will struggle to contain the backfield. New York has still managed nine rushing touchdowns this year—the same as running powerhouses Chicago and San Francisco—and against a Washington side allowing ten runs of 20-plus yards, will be able to move the chain.

Aerially, it's Grossman against Eli Manning at home, fresh off a win over divisional threats. Need more be said on this?

Unfortunately for the Giants though, they won't be able to take back the divisional lead here as Dallas will win on the road against a Tampa Bay side that has had its struggles this year. The fact they just got beat on at home the week before will also be fresh in the mind of the Cowboys, and whilst he may have his issues, Romo angry is a dangerous thought.

Standings:

Dallas Cowboys (9-5)

New York Giants (8-6)

Week 16: @ New York Jets

You've got to love the New York rivalry and like most games down the stretch, this one has massive playoff implications. Should the Jets win, they keep their playoff hopes alive, albeit a wild-card entry and they end any hopes that the Giants have of winning the division.

Sanchez has been one of the most disappointing players of the year this year. Hear me out. The Jets have managed to win games off the back of his throws, but he manages to lose games they should win easily and throws bad throws at even worse occasions. Sanchez will need to deliver for his team here if the Jets are to snatch a wild-card and make the playoffs, and because his team needs him, Sanchez won't deliver.

Manning will be able to beat a strong Jets pass-defense in this one also. Allowing 200 yards per game is great, but seven throws of 40-plus yards? Not so great. That's the same as the Patriots and the Packers combined, who are ranked 31st and 32nd in pass defense. This is against Eli, who is second in the league (behind Rodgers) for throws of 40-plus yards. A couple of long touchdowns will hurt the Jets, and without the ability to come from behind, Sanchez will probably just throw a pick and throw the game to the Giants with it.

Here's the catch. Dallas are at home to Philly who, despite being out of the playoff race, will be still keen to impress and try and win back some of the credit that the "Dream Team" deserves. In the same way that the Eagles line pressured Manning, they will get to Romo, who will be unable to escape being sacked despite his best efforts. The Cowboys defensive line won't give much pressure to Vick, who will be looking to shine after being out for several weeks with injury.

The Giants will get one back here, and will draw level with the Cowboys in the division. They'll also have the edge after beating Dallas previously, and will sit atop the division once more.

Standings:

New York Giants (9-6)

Dallas Cowboys (9-6)

Week 17: Home to Dallas

It's incredible how well the NFL schedulers have done. Seriously. The atmosphere at MetLife Stadium will be phenomenal in this one, with it shaping as a winner-takes-all divisional matchup. The winner takes the division, the loser takes some boos from the crowd and may well take their playoff chances to the trash.

And so it all comes down to this. Winner takes the division. All the little things in this one seem to point to a win for the Giants. They've got the home crowd, who will no doubt be making life hell for Romo and his boys. They'll be on the end of a three game winning streak that has taken them back to the top of the division. They'll have the edge over Dallas after beating them in Dallas previously.

As for the Cowboys, they'll be facing a fired-up New York side that wants to throw Romo in to the ground over and over again. They'll have to recover from a humiliating and frustrating loss to the Eagles the weak before, and they'll have to do it on the arm of Tony Romo, who may be adding to the growing tally of interceptions the Giants' secondary is recording.

I think that all the momentum is with the Giants in this one, and will be more than ready to take it to their divisional rivals and send them packing. The win in this one is also significantly important because it will mean that they don't have to play the Packers until the championship final, should they make it that far.

MetLife Stadium will come alive that night, and I can't see Romo rising to the occasion; he's just not a rise to the occasion kind of guy. Eli Manning on the other hand, has shown this year that he is, and whilst Dallas are doing field-goal practice, Manning has been throwing touchdowns and will throw his team right into the playoffs in doing so.

Standings:

New York Giants (10-6)

Dallas Cowboys (9-7)