Miami Heat: Analyzing their Chances Against the Eastern Conference's Elite

Allow me to start off by saying—as I have been ever since this Heat team was schemed into existence—that nothing short of a catastrophic meltdown can stop them from ultimately seizing the entire league by its collective family jewels.

I should add that I have yet to be proven wrong.

Sure, they'll occasionally play below their talent level and blow a game* here and there as the regular season wears on, but all in all, I don't know one team out East that wouldn't be facing an uphill battle in a seven-game tilt with Miami.

This is a team that steamrolled the Conference Playoffs in their first year together, and only stands to get better and more impossible to beat with time. I feel it no bold prediction to say the Heat will have home-court advantage in every Playoff series they play for the next several years.

And yet, all predictions aside, the games must play out; freak occurrences (e.g. gross underachievement, once-in-a-lifetime performance by an opponent, etc.) could conspire to once again derail Miami's master plan.

Come late April, as many as three Eastern Conference teams will get a shot at doing just that.

Who, if anyone, stands even a chance at keeping Wade and co. from their second straight Finals appearance? Here are the East's top teams, ranked according to their odds of David-ing this Goliath.

*Because when you're this stacked, you don't lose games, you blow them.

5. Atlanta Hawks

The Hawks are kind of an enigma to this day.

They seem like a pretty complete squad, with All-Stars on the wing and in the middle, a solid point guard rotation, an explosive presence at both ends of the floor, and a decent bench anchored by a former Sixth Man of the Year.

These are the kinds of assets that should make the Hawks a legitimate threat. Unfortunately, as of this writing, one of their growing trademarks is a propensity to get passive offensively and hug the perimeter at the expense of their own versatility.

A rampaging monster like the Heat will eat them for lunch almost every time.  

For every jumper Josh Smith coughs up instead of attacking the rim, the Heat will make them pay. For every three-pointer Joe Johnson clanks off the dribble, the Heat will make them suffer. For every time Al Horford or even Zaza Pachulia fails to exploit Miami's bigs...well you get the point.

What I'm saying is, the Hawks are elite on paper, but when they hit the floor with the big boys, they find a way to be perennial bridesmaids.

In the four games where these teams have met so far, the Heat lost one in overtime, while winning the other three by an average of 14 points.

Atlanta also allowed Joel Anthony to average eight boards on them—versus less than four against everyone else—and out-muscle their All-Star center in the process.

Meanwhile, LeBron James scored more points, made more threes, at a better rate, and got to the free-throw line more often against Atlanta than literally every other team in the East.

On what moon of Jupiter could this possibly be good news for the Hawks?

A Playoff series between these two teams would likely see the Heat moving on in four or five games, as the Hawks have just enough uncertainty in their game to bring out Miami's inner Clubber Lang.

Odds of beating the Heat: 35/1, barring some major soul-searching.

4. New York Knicks

And now we come to the team that has most piously followed Miami's lead thus far in the field of superteam-building. With two of their supposedly indispensable big three in tow, all the speculation now concerns whom their All-Star point guard of the future will be.

From there, Knick fans are expecting their boys to massacre the competition precisely the way Miami has been doing. For now, however, this is a flawed roster playing sub-500 basketball since coming together.

Against Miami, New York's weaknesses are enhanced, and their strengths are all but nullified. The Heat are already notorious for their elite defense, which makes the perfect kryptonite for a team that lives and dies by its offense.

That wouldn't be such a fatal problem for the Knicks if both their head coach and their shiny new franchise player didn't think defense meant the removal of white pickets.

It would also help if Chris Bosh didn't score more against New York than anyone else on this list, or in the conference. And I ask you: Who on this team can keep a lid on D-Wade, LeBron and a spiking Bosh for seven games?

I know we all have this picture fresh in our minds of Amar'e Stoudemire's game-winning block on LeBron, but I don't need to tell you that was one play, compared to a season's worth of reputedly pedestrian stopping power as a group.

The Heat's best bet would be to lock the Knicks into a half-court game every time, while the Knicks' best bet would be to get trigger-happy and hope that between Melo, Amar'e, Chauncey and Toney, they find the bottom of the net more often.

Which of these seems like a sound strategy? The Heat do seem to fall victim to these random shooting barrages with unnatural frequency, but smart people don't count on those to happen.

Without the equalizer that is a reliable defense, the Knicks are nothing against Miami except owners of a highly unconvincing four-game split last season.

Odds of beating the Heat: 28/1

3. Orlando Magic

The Magic combine the Knicks's bombs-away offense with the Hawk's amorphous team personality, but at least they have a decently cohesive defense to balance things out. Of course, it all starts in the middle.

Dwight Howard will continue to worry Wade, James and whomever else is cavalier enough (no pun intended) to drive the lane, and he'll continue giving Joel Anthony, Erick Dampier et al. night terrors under the basket.

Beyond him, however, questions abound. Those questions only grow louder when facing a team like Miami that demands the best out of every last man in the rotation.

As I've already mentioned, the Heat seem particularly susceptible to bouts of red-hot shooting from opponents, and if there's one thing the Magic can do, it's go on a hot streak (as evidenced by the immortal postgame image of CB4 on the verge of tears.)

Again, reliance on hot shooting is not a wise strategy unless you plan to steal a quick W and run.

The very same quick trigger that helped them to that 24-point comeback in March would likely result in enough wasted possessions to bury any chance the Magic might have of competing for seven games.

And you'll notice that the odds of Gilbert Arenas, Hedo Turkoglu or Jason Richardson (should he re-sign) being mistaken for Carmelo Anthony are slim to none.A stuffy defense like Miami's is designed to pressure these guys into taking bad shots, which they most likely will.

Anyone up against the almighty Heat can ill afford to throw away possessions, unless they can answer with some stops of their own, preferably on the perimeter. D12 can't stop them all...

LeBron James, for his part, averaged only 30 points on 60 percent shooting in four games against the Magic last season, so that shows you how effective they are in stopping him. They had a little more success keeping Wade in check (21 ppg, 42 percent,) but they're still miles from neutralizing him.

Miami's abundance of offensive options, combined with Orlando's erratic play on both ends of the floor, would spell defeat for the Magic on most nights, particularly in the Playoffs.

Unless of course they become the first team ever to win four of seven on post defense and Hail Mary luck...

Odds of beating the Heat: 18/1

2. Boston Celtics

By sweeping their first three games against Miami’s vaunted new uber-team last season, the Celtics had managed to take the cocksure bunch down a number of pegs. It seemed they had Miami’s number anytime they collided, which didn’t bode well for LeWade and friends come Playoff time. 

Of course that all changed following the Kendrick Perkins trade, as Miami went on to win five of their next six games against their chief rivals, including a playoff drubbing that completely sucked the swagger out of Beantown.

Should there be an NBA season this year, the Celtics will still prove to be one of Miami’s toughest foes. Age will continue to be a concern, of course, but Boston has consistently shown that they are much more than the sum of their creaky parts.

Rajon Rondo will continue to be their biggest pest, Ray Allen will still stretch the defense from outside, and their bench will continue to own Miami's. I also expect Jeff Green to start giving them problems as his role continues to solidify.

Also in Boston's favor is the mere fact that it took a combination of uncharacteristic turnovers and an unusually hot LeBron for their last Playoff series to end as quickly as it did. This should give the Celts  confidence that they can still hang with Miami for six or seven games.

That said, Miami will likely still come out on top when it’s all said and done. There is simply no escaping the fact that, more than anything, the Celtics’ initial stranglehold on this rivalry was driven by the bruising presence of Perkins under the basket.

Once upon a time, if you somehow got by KG, Jermaine or whomever was down low, you were rewarded by running right into Perk, a.k.a. the scariest backup defender in the NBA.

That was the Celtics' ace in the hole versus a slashing team like the Heat; expect them to continue missing it should the two meet again in the Playoffs.

Odds of beating the Heat: 8/1 (10/1 if they have to wait until 2013).

1. Chicago Bulls

Besides the Celtics, the Bulls were the only other Eastern squad to give Miami something to be afraid of come Playoff time last year. They had swept the regular season series, and like Boston, they were oh-so well equipped at the two positions where Miami was thinnest.

Of course, we all know the Playoffs told a different story.

This season, the key to the Bulls' success against Miami will be how well Taj Gibson develops, and whether they can produce a reliable second option on offense.

I don't see Carlos Boozer turning into that consistent secondary threat when it matters most, so the Bulls should be looking for something else out of the power forward position. That something is toughness and intimidation, and this is where Gibson comes in.

When facing Miami, especially when matched up with a Chris Bosh (whose shooting touch is almost as feathery as his loafers) I'll take a bully over a technician any day.

While I don't expect Gibson to supplant Boozer in the starting lineup, I think he will do more to determine the Bulls' fate against the Heat.

Still, all that means nothing if the offense hangs Derrick Rose out to dry like we saw in May. As awesome a scoring talent as Rose is, and as many strides as he's made with his range, it seems he still possesses an off switch, albeit one that requires no less than LBJ to flick.

Barring some major acquisition, Chicago will have to get the help they need from Luol Deng. This is largely because LeBron will have his hands full with Rose, which should free Deng up to force the action more consistently (something I wouldn't recommend just anybody do).

Finally, I don't think I need to go into great detail as to why Joakim Noah can never ever duplicate his shooting performance in the East Finals if he expects to take down Team Hollywood.

All told, I believe the Bulls are more likely than anyone in the East to resolve their issues and truly challenge the Heat in the postseason, as their last series gave them plenty of learning material.

They're also a young team with no good reason to regress, so perhaps a little time is what the doctor ordered.

Odds of beating the Heat: 4/1