Chicago Bulls: 10 Most Discussed Shooting Guards and the Likelihood They Sign

One thing is certain. Whether you are a fan of Keith Bogans or not, he sure earned his paycheck last year. Of course a big part of the reason for that is that it wasn't a very big paycheck. 

In the end though, no matter how well Bogans played defense, the inability of the Bulls to put a shooting guard on the court who could shoot and guard was their undoing. 

This offseason the Bulls main goal is to sign a shooting guard who can do just that and Bulls nation is pretty much talking itself hoarse trying to debate who that shooting guard might be. 

Since Billy Hunter and David Stern can't kiss and make up we're left to merely speculate...heck there aren't even good rumors to follow! 

What I've done is taken a hypothetical 100 percent chance that one of these 10 players will be the one the Bulls acquire and then divided that up into a percentage for each player. They are ranked in order of the likelihood that they will be acquired.  

Aaron Afflalo

Aaron Afflalo is said with an almost hushed whisper by some Bulls fans. They regard him as the single best hope of all shooting guards for the Bulls and the man most likely to put the Bulls over the top. 

Reality check. First, he's really not that good and second he's not that available either. 

Remember the thing is the Bulls are looking for a player who can score. Afflalo has 13 20-point games in his career. That's hardly an indication to me that he's going to start running up the score. Ronnie Brewer has 21. The Bulls would be better off just moving Brewer into the starting lineup as he's a better defender anyway.

It's a moot point anyway as the Nuggets have already in no uncertain terms made it clear they are going to match any offers. They are going to keep him regardless.

Barring a change in the collective bargaining agreement (CBA) which eliminates restricted free agency, a highly unlikely event, the Bulls won't be signing Afflalo.

Probability of Signing: 1 percent.  

Marcus Thornton

Marcus Thronton exploded after being traded to the Kings last season. Given a chance to start his scoring went from 7.8 points per game to 21.3.

He's a career 37 percent three point shooter, which isn't great, but it's good enough. He has the ability to attack the rim or score from outside.  He's not the best defender but he gets credit for effort. He is the type of defender who would perform well in the Bulls system as the number one attribute needed in Thibodeau's system is hustle.

Thornton would be another player who would fit in nicely and actually be a better player than some of the others whose names are more frequently mentioned. He's a high character guy with a full offensive repertoire and defensive hustle.

Unfortunately he's also a restricted free agent. Not only that, his new team just traded for him, so it's unlikely they are going to just up and let him go, especially after he played so well for them.

Chance of Signing: 2 percent.  

Nick Young

Nick Young definitely has some offensive skills, scoring 17.1 points per game last year in a breakout season. The Wizards are likely to sign him, but the acquisition and unexpected high performing Jordan Crawford gives the Wizards a little wiggle room there. 

Furthermore his defense is actually not that bad either. His opponent's points per play is only .94 points which is certainly respectable and his opponents PER is well above average at 12.7. Lest you want to credit his teammates for that bear in mind his numbers were the best on the team. 

And if you needed more reason to consider him, there's this. He's able to play the 1 the 2 or the 3.

Does he have weaknesses? Yes, but those weaknesses are well hidden in Chicago. His primary problems are rebounding and passing.  

If the Wizards let Young go he might be one of the best players the Bulls could hope to get. He's young (no pun intended) and improving. 

He'd make a nice fit with the Bulls, but as with Afflalo the Wizards are likely to match any offers. The one difference is the Wizards haven't made such an overt commitment to matching any offers.  

Probability of Signing: 2 percent

Michael Redd

Michael Redd to me is one of the more intriguing players available. The last two season have been lost due to his tearing, then re-tearing his ACL and MCL in his left knee. In those two seasons he played a total of 627 minutes. 

Prior to that though he was a good to exceptional shooting guard. At his best he scored 26.7 points per game. Now he's a 32 year old with a bum knee. The question with him is whether there is anything left.

If there is, he could be a nice fit. He has a decent 3-point shot, hitting 38 percent on his career. At least in the past he's shown the ability to drive to the rim and create his own shots. He's a veteran who will likely sign for the minimum with whoever will give him a chance so money won't be an issue. 

What is an issue though is whether he can still play, and even if he can, whether he can take a full season of starters minutes without reaggravating his knee injury.  

Probability of Signing: 4 Percent

Jamal Crawford

Jamal Crawford has found a niche as the sixth man on the Atlanta Hawks. He's one of the veterans who get the most attention from Bulls fans. 

Crawford, simply put, is not a good fit. First, he's not nearly as good a scorer as some think he is. We're talking about a career .410  field goal percentage. He's a marginal at best 3-point shooter at 35 percent. He doesn't go to the rim. His offense is overrated and his defense is utterly lacking.

Then there's the fact that last year his scoring dropped four points per game in spite of the fact that his minutes dropped only only one per game. It wasn't just his scoring either, his numbers dropped across the board and his PER actually dropped even more, going from 18.4 to 14.2. 

On top of all that Crawford is going to come at a higher price than a lot of the younger guys that are going to be available.

Jamal Crawford is not the answer. I don't think that Thibodeau would even entertain the notion of signing an 11 year veteran who has never shown an interest in playing defense. Bulls management is going to be privy to his descending value.

Crawford is unlikely to be pursued by the Bulls. Between the return and the price he's just not worth it. There is a chance that he might want to come back to where he started his career and convince the Bulls he's ready to show effort on defense though. 

Probability of Signing: 5 percent

Rip Hamilton

There is a good chance that Rip Hamilton will be bought out of his contract with Detroit. If he is, he'll be looking at Chicago as a possibility. 

Hamilton brings a good skill set. He's a career 18 point per game scorer and a good defender. He's able to score both inside and out reasonably well, but not exceptionally well. His height is attractive and would give the Bulls some length in the backcourt. 

There's also the fact that he's a three time All-Star with an NBA Championship ring. 

He'd also likely be willing to not take a lot of money so he is an acquirable target.

There are good reasons to sign him but there are some reasons not sign him too. His run-ins with his coach last year were downright nauseating. If there's even the hint that he can bring that kind of poisonous attitude to Chicago, it could mean trouble, and a hard-line Thibs could be the type to bring out the worst in him.

If he gets bought out there's a chance he could end up with Chicago, but he'd have to convince management that he's not going to cause problems on the team.

Probability of Signing: 8 Percent 

OJ Mayo

With OJ Mayo it's not as much about signing him as trading for him, however the general chatter among Bulls fans is that he would be worth trading for. With Mayo, it's time to take a reality check. 

He's a good, not great scorer. He can get to the rim, but doesn't nearly often enough. He's a marginal defender who could improve in Thibodeau's system. If he were a high character guy, my take on him would be a lot different. 

The problems that Mayo has though are his character. He seems to have trouble playing well with others, squabbling with his teammates and the like. A big part of the Bulls success is team chemistry and there's the chance that adding Mayo could invite problems in that area. 

On top of that there's the whole steroid drug test that he failed. There's the history of marijuana possession as well. 

Some of these things might be the kind of things you'd overlook with some people, but when a team invests a high draft pick in a player and he keeps getting pushed further back, you have to wonder what's going on. Memphis wasn't trying to sabotage itself.

Trading for Mayo also involves another question in terms of cost. It wouldn't merely involve the cost of him as a player, but it would also involve the trade of other assets, most likely Ronnie Brewer and draft picks. This added cost, coupled with the potential other problems, makes me cautious that trading for Mayo might not even make the Bulls better.

Still we do know that the Bulls management pushed for a trade at the deadline and it's possible that after the lockout could entertain one again.

Probability of Trading: 8 Percent  

Shannon Brown

Shannon Brown started off the season like he had something to prove, and had Lakers fans talking about him being the sixth man of the year. He tapered off at the end of the year though, with his second half splits showing more than a two point drop in spite of only playing half a minute less. 

While he's always been a bench player, there's a chance that he could really be a bona fide starter. When he started for the Lakers in 2010 when Kobe Bryant was hurt he did well enough, averaging 15.3 points per game. That's enough for what the Bulls are looking for.

Brown is a good defensive player as well. He's explosive as all get out and has hops that are crazy out of the gym. If he's on the Bulls you could definitely expect to see some dynamic backcourt play between he and Rose. Not many backourts offer two guards with 40-plus inch verticals.

So yeah, I think that's a tandem that could put the alley in your oop.

The catch with Brown is that he's on record as saying he wants to stay with the Lakers. Of course there's some things that could change that. The new CBA may make it hard for LA to keep  him. They'll have enough of a problem trimming payroll as it is. 

He also might be reconsidering his stance after the Lakers were swept out of the playoffs last year. He might be thinking that he'd rather be the starter on a team on the rise than a bench player on team headed in the other direction. His opting out of the final year of his contract certainly indicates that line of thinking.

Brown's price tag would be about right as well, although it's possible he's thinking he's worth more than he is. From the Bulls standpoint Brown would fit in, though it might render the Bulls backcourt a bit undersized. The appeal of playing in his hometown probably wouldn't be lost on him either. Shannon Brown is a real possibility.

Probability of Signing: 10 Percent 

JR Smith

In terms of sheer offensive explosiveness and the ability to create his own offense, JR Smith is the best shooting guard available. His highlight ability just flat out exceeds everyone else's.

There's some problems with him though. His commitment to defense is no better than Tiger Woods' commitment to marriage. He's had consistent run-ins with coaching. The attitude issues are what raise red flags, not the potential. 

Smith showed some promise after Anthony was dealt and was fitting into a "team" concept better than he had historically. It's possible that change of heart can continue. Smith may very well be at the point in his career where he's willing to grow up.

Ray Allen, who also played under George Karl, had similar issues until he was traded to Boston, where under the tutelage of defensive assistant Tom Thibodeau he had a turnaround. Could Thibs have the same effect on Smith? It's not impossible.

There's something about the difference in Smith after the trade that really strikes me. Maybe it was the inconsistent message that Karl was sending. Smith was getting ridden about lack of effort on defense while Carmelo gave the same lack of effort without consequence.

In Chicago Derrick Rose and Carlos Boozer both were told to grab some pine and sit out the fourth quarter in tight games for not playing defense on separate occasions. Thibs will bench you if you're not playing D' but it's across the board.

Smith may be more responsive if he doesn't feel like he's being singled out. He may fit better into a team atmosphere that is tight knit, appreciative and mutually encouraging. With Smith it may really be that all he needs is a change of scenery. 

This may just come down to an interview. Talking to Smith could tell the Bulls whether they'd get pre-trade Smith or post-trade Smith. Which one they get might determine whether they extend an offer.

Probability of Signing: 25 Percent 

Jason Richardson

Jason Richardson has emerged as the potential favorite for the new starting shooting guard in Chicago, and rightly so. Last year he made 14 million but he's indicated that he's willing to take a sizable pay cut, and that he wants to play for a contender. 

In short, winning matters more to Richardson at this point than money. He's a career 18-point scorer who has shot 40 percent from behind the arc for the last four years. He is an excellent catch and shoot player. He plays well off the ball and decent with the ball.

Another plus is he's an excellent post up player, particularly against smaller guards.  His career average against Dwyane Wade is 20.3. That's a bit more than what Bogans and Brewer combined for last year in the playoffs. 

He's not the greatest defender in the world, but he is underrated and he's another player that would fit into Thibs system where it's more about team defense and help defense than it is about individual defense.

In terms of character and personality Richardson doesn't bring problems, but as a 30 year old seasoned veteran would bring leadership. He would lend height to the backcourt.

There's a reason he's become the top goal, because he's probably the best choice. He wants to win a ring and he might see Chicago as the best place to do it. This could very easily be a mutual love affair and a short courting process.

Probability of Signing: 35 Percent