NBA Draft 2011: 5 Reasons the Utah Jazz Won't Draft Jimmer Fredette
In the simple words of one of the greatest rock bands of all time, Van Halen:
"Dream another dream, this dream is over"
This quick message goes out to all the BYU Cougars fans and Jimmermaniacs who hope the Utah Jazz draft Jimmer Fredette in the upcoming NBA Draft.
No matter how much you want the Jazz to add him, how good of a fit Jimmer would be, or where he can score from on the court, it is not going to happen.
Now before you pull out all of his offensive stats, tell me that Kevin Durant thinks he is "the best scorer in the world," or bring out the draft combine results to try to convince me that he will be a superstar in the league, let me explain.
There are hundreds of articles that point out the numbers and outline why he should or should not be drafted by the Jazz.
If that is the type of article that you are looking for, and you want to get into the statistical debate, you are in the wrong place.
Rather than discussing whether the Utah Jazz should or should not draft Fredette, the following slides will discuss the reasons why the Utah Jazz won't select him on draft night.
Unless the Jazz pick him up in a few years, Jimmer won't be playing for the team any time soon.
5. Jazz Fans' Expectations Will Be Too High
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At the beginning of the last college basketball season, BYU fans had no idea what was going to happen.
Sure, they knew that Jimmer was going to be a good player, but they could not have predicted how much hype he would bring and how much attention that he brought to the school.
Jimmer fans do not want this to end.
The expectations in Utah to transform the Jazz as he did BYU will be very high. But fans will become quickly frustrated when they realize that Jimmer won't do the same in the NBA.
No matter how good of a scorer Jimmer was in college, he will not re-create it at the next level. If anyone thinks he is going to be a 28-points-per-game player, he would be most coveted player in the draft.
As a rookie he will not get the kind of playing time needed to be a star. He will also be playing against much better defenses, and he will have to learn to share the ball. Like most rookies, his level of production will drop significantly from where it was at BYU.
Jimmer will no doubt experience normal rookie problems, and fans will quickly jump off of the bandwagon as they see him struggle.
The last thing that a rebuilding Jazz team needs is a large part of its fanbase there only to see one player. They already went through that on a small scale when they traded away Deron Williams.
The expectations that many fans will place on Jimmer to "save the franchise" will be too much for him or the Utah Jazz to have to deal with.
He will not experience this as much with another NBA team and will get a more realistic chance to develop than he will if he is in Utah.
4. History Suggests That the Jazz Don't Draft Locally
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A quick question:
Who was the last player that the Jazz drafted from a college in Utah?
While they have had several players who played college basketball in Utah, none of them were picked up via the NBA draft.
This includes players such as Ronnie Price, Rafael Araujo, Andy Toolson, Tom Chambers and Ruben Nembhard.
In fairness, over the years there have been a lot of local talent that the Jazz would have taken had they had a better draft position.
I am sure they would have selected Keith Van Horn, Andrew Bogut, Araujo, Andre Miller or Michael Doleac had they drafted sooner.
Keep in mind though that the Jazz did not do much to try to pick up the second-tier players such as Travis Hansen, Britton Johnson or Jaycee Carroll in the second round.
Not since the 1982 draft when the Jazz picked Steve Trumbo from BYU one round before selecting Mark Eaton, have the Jazz taken a local guy. Trumbo never played for the Jazz and left to play in Europe following the draft.
History is not on Jimmer's side as the Utah Jazz do not select local players in the NBA draft.
3. Jimmer's Presence in Utah Will Be Too Much of a Distraction
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As a rebuilding team in a small market, the Utah Jazz cannot afford to focus on anything except for fundamentals, basketball and winning.
If Fredette becomes a member of the Jazz, they will have an instant distraction. Fans and media across the state will quickly forget that there are other players on the team.
Fredette will become an instant celebrity and have to deal with much more than developing and fitting into the NBA.
I do not blame him for any of this, because he himself will not create it. Fans and the media will take care of that for him.
As a team, the Jazz do not need the distraction that the Jimmer circus will bring if he is in Utah.
The distractions and expectations that will come are not fair to Fredette and would not be fair to Jazz teammates or the organization. The Jazz are too respectable of a franchise to be defined by one player who has not yet proven himself on the court.
What kind of message would the Jazz be sending the player selected at the third pick by picking up Fredette at the 12th?
What is the message sent to the other players if an unproven rookie takes over as the fan favorite?
The Jazz simply don't need the distraction as it would set them back in the rebuilding process.
2. The Jazz Can't Afford to Split Their Fan Base
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While I would imagine that this is not at the top of the list of concerns for the Jazz, and it cannot be the sole reason for drafting a player, if Fredette is selected by the Jazz, there will be a split in the fan base.
As a small market team who has just experienced more frustration in one season than they have in the last 15 years combined, they cannot afford to have a further division in where fan loyalty lies.
After trading away Williams and watching the team sputter to the finish, many fans have already lost interest.
While the addition of Jimmer would bring some fans back to the team, it would also push more away.
There is not a more polarizing player in this year's draft. One only needs to read the hundreds of articles and arguments for and against selecting Jimmer. It seems like he is either loved or is hated. There is not much middle ground.
Many are sold on his abilities and convinced that he will be a star; and many think he will be a total bust. Fans on both sides will watch Jimmer's career with interest for very different reasons.
Additionally, it seems that while most fans come together to support the Jazz, fan loyalties in Utah often go back to which college teams fans root for. Another division will be created by the fans of different schools.
Many BYU fans will think Jimmer on the Jazz is the greatest thing that could happen; while fans of the University of Utah, or Utah State will not want to see a Cougar play on the NBA team that they love.
After all of the turmoil of last season, the Jazz need to pick up players that the majority of the fan base can rally around and support, not one that will split up the interest and possibly drive away fans.
1. He Won't Be Available by the 12th Spot
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The Utah Jazz will not use the third pick in this year's NBA Draft on Jimmer Fredette.
If the Jazz are interested in selecting Fredette, they are either going to have to trade up in the draft or hope that he is available at the 12-spot.
With many other good players that could be available to the Jazz, it is unlikely that they will make a trade.
It is also unlikely that Jimmer will still be on the board when the Jazz select 12th.
With his workouts changing the minds of several NBA teams and the positive results he has had in his interviews, he will be picked up by a team that needs a player who can create his own shot and score the way that Fredette can.
Teams such as the Cavaliers, Pistons, Bobcats, Warriors, Raptors, and Kings all draft in between the Jazz picks and will all be interested in Fredette's abilities.
The Pacers, Knicks, Rockets, and Suns all select after the Jazz, but may work to trade up in the draft and select Fredette.
One of these teams will take Jimmer off the board before the Jazz have another turn.
Like other local players, maybe the match made in heaven between Jimmer and the Jazz will happen sometime in the next few years. I could see him being a better fit after he is established and there is a better idea of what type on NBA player he turns out to be.
Until then it is time to put away the blue-and-white No. 32 jersey and stop trying to pre-order a Fredette Utah Jazz jersey at the NBA store.
Jimmer to the Jazz is not going to happen.
Chris Johstoneaux is a contributor to Bleacher Report that usually covers the NBA, and Major League Soccer. If you liked this article, please take a moment to leave me a comment and follow me on Twitter at @JazzRSLExaminer.
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