NBA Playoffs 2011: 10 Reasons Dallas Mavericks Should Be Favored over East Champ
It's been about a day since the Dallas Mavericks mounted a ferocious comeback against the Oklahoma City Thunder, erasing a 15-point deficit over the final five minutes of the game.
OK, so they may have had some help as the Thunder seemingly snatched defeat from the jaws of victory, committing five fouls in the final five minutes, four of which were on players not attacking the basket.
Dallas won the game despite being out-rebounded by 22 boards (OKC had 15 more on the offensive glass), shooting worse and having seven fewer assists.
They had an off-night by all standards and still were able to grind out the game.
We could go back and rehash all the events of last night's game and figure out why Dallas won, but the past is the past, and with Dallas on the brink of another trip to the NBA Finals, I'd rather go ahead and argue for them to be the favorite in those finals, regardless of the Eastern Conference Champion.
10. Mark Cuban's Silence
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If there is one guy that has been a fixture in the news during Dallas' playoff runs it has been Mark Cuban.
He has always been there, every step of the way, criticizing officials, speaking his mind, racking up fines and just being in the public eye in general as much as possible.
As great as it is to have an owner who is so visible and genuinely effected by the outcome of each game, it tends to become a bit of a distraction with Cuban and the Mavericks when he does it as often as he has been known to in the past.
This year, Cuban has been the lite version of himself, still chiming in from time to time, but not nearly enough to become a distraction.
Sure, he still is one of the most insane people in the arena during the game, but afterward he is more reserved and quiet compared to 2006 Mark Cuban.
9. Ball Protection
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You don't get into the playoffs if you can't protect the ball, so every team that is left isn't exactly turning the ball over 25 times a game (although OKC did turn it over 26 times Monday night), but you get to the championship by being one of the best at protecting the ball.
Of the four teams left, Dallas has the highest assist to turnover ratio at 1.7 assists per turnover, while Chicago is at 1.5, Miami is at 1.2 and Oklahoma City is at 1.1.
What's more, Dallas averages just under 13 turnovers a game, the fewest of any team left, and forces just over 13 a game, the second most of any team left.
8. Control of the Game
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Something that can't really be measured in statistics is the ability of a team to adapt to the pace of the game, and even more their ability to control it.
Looking at the Mavericks' roster, you'll see that they have a variety of line-ups that they can run to play at a variety of paces.
Their starting line-up can be methodical and good in the half-court, with Shawn Marion, Jason Kidd and Tyson Chandler able to slow down the ball on both sides of the court.
Meanwhile, they have a second squad that can come in with JJ Barea and Jason Terry to pick up the pace and run a very good fast-break and transition offense, plus keep pace with an up-tempo offense on the other side of the ball.
Then you have Dirk Nowitzki, who is capable of doing almost anything on the court at this point in his career, as he is capable of being methodical with the ball, taking his time and picking apart the defense, or he can run on the fast break, as he still has the speed to keep pace with the young big men in the league.
7. Sinking the Free Ones
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I can't tell you how much it bothers me when I see a team do everything right on the court, and then end up losing down the stretch because of missed free throws. That is something you usually won't say about the Mavericks.
Here's a surprising stat for you: The four teams left make up the four best free throw shooting teams in these playoffs.
Dallas leads the pack at just under 82 percent, just ahead of the Thunder, who are a tenth of a percent behind Dallas. Miami is third at 80 percent and Chicago is fourth at 79.
They may not have much of a lead, but they do have the edge in this category.
6. Bench Play
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You can make the argument that Chicago has a good bench, and indeed they do, but it isn't nearly as good as Dallas' (I'm not even going to give Miami's bench any evaluation—they have Udonis Haslem and Mario Chalmers).
Chicago has Kyle Korver, Taj Gibson, Ronnie Brewer, C.J Watson and Omer Asik. They have an array of defensive specialists and a few shooters, which makes up a pretty good bench, but what Dallas has on their bench is special.
Dallas features Jason Terry, who can score 25 points on any given night, Peja Stojakovic, who could go shot-for-shot with Korver, a wildcard in JJ Barea and a defensive machine in Brendan Haywood.
5. Superior Team Play
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When you watch Chicago or Miami play, there are stretches where you know who is going to be shooting the ball.
For some reason or another, either LeBron James or Dwyane Wade will take a possession or two where they dribble out the shot clock and put up whatever shot the defense gives them (they usually make them though), or Derrick Rose will take four or five possessions where he is definitely putting up a shot.
Sometimes it's just that they have the hot hand, other times it's because nobody else is making a move, or it may even be just because it's what they want to do, but it happens multiple times a game usually.
With Dallas, the only one who ever gets into this type of rut is Jason Terry, who will try to force things for himself if Dallas is down.
Otherwise, the rest of the team is pretty level-headed and knows to look for the extra pass before trying to push through the defense and jack up a shot.
Even Monday night, when Nowizki was blitzkrieging through the Thunder, he took his time to look for the open man, even dishing it out to Terry on one possession and Jason Kidd on another.
4. Past Failures
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Nothing teaches a guy how to win like losing, so the Mavericks should be the smartest winning team in the playoffs.
Dallas has an array of guys who have failed at the highest level, giving them the motivation to stay away from that failure again.
Dirk Nowitzki and Jason Terry were both a part of the 2006 Mavericks team that got sent packing by the Miami Heat and a few choice referees.
Jason Kidd made it to the NBA Finals twice in the early 2000s, losing to the Lakers and Spurs in consecutive years.
Peja Stojakovic was a part of one of the best teams never to make it to the finals with the 2002 Sacramento Kings, who won 61 games, but lost in seven games to the Lakers and Tim Donaghy.
Brendan Haywood and DeShawn Stevenson didn't make it as far as the other guys, but they were bounced from the playoffs with the Washington Wizards when they had a very strong team in the mid-00s.
What's more, Jason Kidd is 39, Peja Stojakovic is nearly 34 and Dirk Nowitzki is nearly 33, so their window for championships are closing rapidly, giving them even more motivation.
3. Sneaky Good Defense
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There has been a lot of talk in the past week that the Eastern Conference Finals is all about defense, while the Western Conference Finals is all about offense.
When you take a look at it, it's true as the average score for a team in the East Finals is 86.7 a game, while in the West it's been 104.5—a nearly 20 point swing.
However, when you take a look at what Dallas has done with what has been the highest scoring team in the playoffs (103 ppg), it looks a bit more impressive.
Dallas has held OKC under their playoff average, they have forced at least 13 turnovers in each game against the Thunder (26 in Monday's game) and they have held them to 3-for-30 from the three-point line in the past two games.
Dallas hasn't overwhelmed when it comes to bleals (blocks and steals) with just over 11 a game, but they are a pesky defense, and force teams to take outside shots.
2. Veteran Presence
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You could make an argument that LeBron James and Dwyane Wade make up a good veteran presence for Miami, as they are savvy players, but they have nowhere near the experience that Dirk Nowitzki and Jason Kidd have.
Jason Kidd has about five or six plays a game that remind you why he is still a starting point guard even though he is going on 39. He draws defenders off their feet, draws offensive fouls and just does things that get the opposing team frustrated.
Dirk Nowitzki does something that so few players in the NBA do these days. He doesn't dribble—right away at least.
Most players will use their dribble as soon as they get the ball (James and Wade are good at waiting, but they do get impatient at times), even if they don't have a plan.
Dirk will get the ball around the top of the key and just stand for four or five seconds. At first it looks like a waste of the shot clock, but after you see him do it a few times you realize he's like Peyton Manning using up all of the play clock before he calls for the ball.
Nowitzki can read the defense, subtly cue one of his teammates to cut to the basket or come back and help for the pick-and-roll, and then he will start his dribble, only after he knows exactly what he is doing.
Dallas has a veteran leadership that no other team can say they have right now.
1. Dirk Nowitzki
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If they gave out a playoff MVP award, Dirk Nowitzki would be the favorite to win it right now.
Let's skip all the talk about him being unstoppable, because he was obviously stoppable in Game 3. While we're at it, let's stop all the talk comparing him to Larry Bird, because he is definitely no Larry Bird.
However, what he is, is a guy that is starting to look impossible to guard with a non-physical defender (I'm talking to you Chris Bosh and Carlos Boozer) who can make any shot that he attempts.
Seriously, when is the last time you saw a guy taking fade-away one-footers and making them regularly.
On top of that, he has ratcheted up his offense in the playoffs, getting more physical and serious on the defensive end of the floor.
He is a man on a mission now that he can see another shot at a championship in his near future, especially after what he went through back in 2006.
2006 was about Dwyane Wade, Shaq, Mark Cuban vs. David Stern and the referees. This year he is trying to make it about Dirk Nowitzki, and succeeding.
I actually think Dallas will be better off if Miami beats Chicago, because it will give the media another thousand reasons to ignore Dirk, and that's something that he doesn't seem to like at this point in his career.
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