Miami Heat: Breaking Down the Potential Conference Finals Matchups
Now that the Miami Heat have pummeled the once-mighty Celtics, they get to rest and wait as Chicago and Atlanta slug it out for the right to face them.
What would a Bulls victory mean for the Heat in the conference finals? What if the Hawks pull off the upset instead?
Read on for a look at how the Heat match up with both of their potential foes in the next round.
Heat vs. Bulls: Offense
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Miami has a decided edge over the Bulls when it comes to putting points on the board. As good as a MVP Derrick Rose is, the Bulls have had chronic problems finding a second scoring option behind him.
Miami, meanwhile, has two of the league’s best scorers in LeBron James and Dwyane Wade. Forward Chris Bosh, when he’s on, can become a third All-Star-caliber scoring threat.
Advantage: Heat
Heat vs. Hawks: Offense
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The Heat tandem of LeBron James and Dwyane Wade gives them a chance to outscore any opponent. Stopping either, let alone both, is a challenge the Hawks may not be up to.
Atlanta has thrived on a balanced offense in the postseason, with the emergence of aggressive point guard Jeff Teague adding to the weapons Atlanta had already established in the regular season.
While Joe Johnson, Jamal Crawford and Al Horford are all capable of big scoring nights, none of them (nor Teague, come to that) can dominate with the consistency of James or Wade.
Advantage: Heat
Heat vs. Bulls: Defense
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Miami’s defense has gotten a boost in the postseason from the improved play of center Joel Anthony. Adding his shot-blocking ability to the athleticism of LeBron James and Dwyane Wade has made Miami that much tougher to score on.
Chicago is playing the best team defense in basketball for the season (especially with the Kendrick Perkins trade having thrown the Celtics into disarray). Coach of the Year Tom Thibodeau has everyone (even former non-defenders like Kyle Korver) buying in and battling on the defensive end.
Advantage: Bulls
Heat vs. Hawks: Defense
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Miami has spent much of the season playing defense from the outside in, relying on great individual plays from LeBron James and Dwyane Wade. As Kevin Garnett’s disappearance in the Eastern semis (11 ppg in Boston’s four losses) proves, they’ve gotten more dangerous against post scorers, too.
Atlanta doesn’t have any defensive stoppers (with apologies to shot-blocking Josh Smith), but they’ve used solid game planning to stop Orlando and hang tough with Chicago. By forcing each team to play one (Dwight Howard or Derrick Rose) vs. five, they’ve outmaneuvered superior talents.
Advantage: Heat
Heat vs. Bulls: Rebounding
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LeBron James’ big body and athleticism routinely give Miami an edge on the glass at one position, but Chris Bosh is unreliable as a rebounder at the 4 spot. Similarly, Dwyane Wade is an outstanding rebounder for a guard, but PG Mike Bibby is nothing special.
Chicago has dominated on the glass in the postseason, and C Joakim Noah is one of the best pure rebounders in basketball. Luol Deng and Derrick Rose are both big and athletic for their positions, giving the Bulls a further boost.
Advantage: Bulls
Heat vs. Hawks: Rebounding
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Joel Anthony’s rebounding ability has helped keep him in the league despite his lack of a scoring punch. Unfortunately for the Heat, they don’t have a lot of other high-level rebounders, and Chris Bosh disappears far too often considering his 6’11” frame.
The Hawks ranked an appalling 28th in the NBA in rebounds in the regular season. Al Horford and Josh Smith are both big and athletic, but don’t have enough help around them.
Advantage: Heat
Heat vs. Bulls: Intangibles
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Miami comes in brimming with confidence after a decisive victory over the Celtics. The Heat’s reputation for folding against elite teams looks to be behind them.
Chicago finished the regular season looking invincible, but both Indiana and Atlanta have proven more challenging than they looked on paper. The Bulls’ ability to stand up to a top-tier opponent at this point seems very much in doubt.
Advantage: Heat
Heat vs. Hawks: Intangibles
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Miami’s biggest weakness in the regular season was finishing in close games. They’ve rolled over their first two playoff foes with little opposition, but it’s hard to predict how they’ll fare if they wind up in a close game.
Atlanta could have been the biggest surprise of the postseason if it hadn’t been for Memphis’ sudden emergence. If they get past Chicago, they’ll be flying high and won’t be under any pressure against a Heat team that will likely be heavily favored.
Advantage: Hawks
Verdict: Bulls over Heat
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Even as well as the Heat are playing, they haven’t faced a defense that can touch Chicago’s. James and Wade will get their points, but likely not in the quantity Miami will need.
Derrick Rose will be a matchup nightmare for Miami, and he’ll give the Bulls enough offensive firepower to eke out a home-court fueled win in seven games.
Verdict: Heat over Hawks
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The Hawks have outperformed any expectations, but don’t have the talent level to trade punches with Miami. They’ve won in the playoffs by focusing their defense on one player, and against the Heat that won’t be an option.
Either James or Wade, or both, is likely to blow up in this matchup, and with home court advantage on their side, Atlanta will be doing well to stretch the series to six games.
