Derrick Rose or LeBron James: Who Was Better at 22?

In the light of the MVP race, there are those who were apoplectic at the notion that Derrick Rose would be considered a better player than LeBron James. Typically, the argument wasn't actually that Rose was better so much as he was more valuable.

While the notion of value can be argue—and has been, ad nauseam—I got to wondering, who was better at 22?

There's no argument really that right now James is better, but is it really so far fetched to put Rose on the same level as James at the same age? After all, it seems unreasonable to compare a third-year pro (and the James crowd gives an emphatic yes to this, albeit for other reasons) to a eight-year veteran with two MVPs.  

First let's look at some basic stats from each player's age-22 season, adjusted for per-36-minute rates:

Player	FG%	3P%	FT%	BLK	STL	TRB	ASS	PTS	TO
Derrick Rose	.445	.332	.858	0.6	1.0	3.9	7.4	24.1	3.3
LeBron James	.476	.319	.698	0.6	1.4	5.9	5.3	24.1	2.8

The total stats are close enough that you could make an argument for either player. At the very least you can say based on the overall stats that the players were on the same level. In terms of significant advantages, there are really only a few. James has a much better field-goal percentage and has two more rebounds per game. 

While in terms of steals and turnovers he has relatively significant advantages in terms, in the sense of the impact on the overall game they are relatively minor, i.e. combined they impact about one play per 36 minutes of play. 

Rose offsets James' advantages with a far better free-throw percentage and assist totals. His slight advantage in three-point percentage offsets the turnover and steal advantage James has.

In these comparisons it should be stated too that both players have advantages where their positions might dictate they should.  

However, sometimes just looking at the whole numbers doesn't give the whole picture. Let's look at some of the advanced stats to see how the players compare.

Player	TS%	TRB%	AST%	STL%	BLK%	TO%	USG%	ORTG	DRTG	WS/48	APER*
Derrick Rose	.550	6.4	38.7	1.5	1.3	13.1	32.2	113	103	0.208	26.26
LeBron James	.552	9.6	29.1	2.1	1.3	11.5	31.0	112	100	0.206	26.03

Here James has the advantage in more categories, but Rose has the slight advantage in the overall metrics, suggesting that the areas where he does gain an advantage, either the areas are more important or else that the advantage is more pronounced. 

Bear in mind, though, that these overall metrics, however advertised, are still just opinions disguised as numbers. They weight different variables and the weight given to each variable is based on opinions of the worth of the individual variables. There may be a logic to support the opinion, but it's still an opinion. 

Statistically, there's really not much separation one way or the other. There are doubtless fans of both players who will say emphatically, "How can you say!?!?!?!" and then point to the advantages enjoyed by their preferred player, but really, it's pretty even. 

If you go to team success, there's really not much more to distinguish them. While James led his team to the NBA Finals, he did so in a decisively weaker Eastern Conference. Only two teams in the conference, the Cavaliers and the Detroit Pistons, broke the 50-win barrier, and Detroit was the No. 1 seed with a mere 53 wins. 

By comparison, this year, Chicago was the top overall seed and in a much tougher Eastern Conference which boasted four teams over 50 games, and three with more than the '07 Pistons. It's not determined yet how far they will advance in the playoffs, so we can't compare the postseason yet, but it's probably fair to equate the NBA's best overall record with winning a weak Eastern Conference and getting swept in the Finals. 

Finally, while Derrick Rose won an MVP when he was just 22 years old, it should be pointed out that while James only finished fifth at 22, he did finish a close second to Steve Nash at 21. 

Is a 22-year-old Derrick Rose better than the 26-year-old LeBron James? No. However the 22-year-old Derrick Rose versus the 22-year-old LeBron James is certainly a fair comparison, and that portends well for the future of Derrick Rose, particularly considering his track record of improving year to year. 

* For those who don't know, APER is a tweak on PER that includes actual shots created and charges rather than estimates

Some are going to argue that I just chose APER over PER because it benefits Rose. I chose it because I think that using actual numbers over estimated numbers makes more sense, particularly when the estimates can be so misleading.

The reason it favors Rose is that creating shots is the single most dominant aspect of Rose's game. A metric which discounts that shouldn't take precedence over one that accounts for it. Having said that, bear in mind that James is also very good at creating shots for himself, so his APER is higher than his PER as well.  APER does eliminate the big man bias found in many metrics though.