2011 NBA Playoff Predictions: Projecting Eastern Conference First Round Winners
The NBA has just concluded what many deem to be one of its most exciting and successful seasons ever. Of course, we won't know how the league fared economically until its numbers are released in July, but to call these playoffs highly anticipated would be a gross understatement.
After 82 games, 16 teams remain, and a plethora of questions will be answered.
Can Lebron James win a championship?
Are the Chicago Bulls for real?
Are the Boston Celtics done?
Can Carmelo Anthony carry the Knicks?
And of course:
Who is going to win the conference?
It's a long way away and a difficult question to answer, so let's focus on the series that we actually know are going to be played.
Chicago Bulls vs. Indiana Pacers
1 of 4
These Central Division foes will square off in what will probably be one of the most boring series in the 2011 NBA Playoffs. In short, in order for an eight seeded team to knock off the top seed, they have to have a distinct advantage somewhere.
The last time we saw this happen in 2007, it was because the Mavericks could not match the heart and passion of the Warriors. And of course, they had no match for Baron Davis. That's not the case here.
Indiana simply has no advantage anywhere on the court against Chicago. Danny Granger (Luol Deng), Darren Collison (Derrick Rose), and Roy Hibbert (Joakim Noah) will easily be overpowered by their counterparts.
Additionally, the Pacers really have no hope of containing Derrick Rose, so this one should be over quickly.
Prediction: Bulls in 4
How Indiana can win: Tyler Hansbrough would have to outplay Carlos Boozer and the Pacers would have to find a way to do something no other team has been able to do this season: Stop Derrick Rose.
Brandon Rush is a capable defender and pretty good 3-point shooter. If he catches fire and can stop Derrick Rose, then maybe it'll happen. But don't count on it. Roy Hibbert would also obviously have to outplay Joakim Noah and become the consistent 20/10 guy that has teased Pacers fans all season long.
Orlando Magic vs. Atlanta Hawks
2 of 4
Atlanta won the season series over the Orlando Magic, 3-1, but as we all know, the regular season means almost nothing once the playoffs begin.
These teams will meet for the second consecutive year in the playoffs. And while both teams have made some changes (Orlando's are far more significant), all it really means is that Atlanta will probably win a few games.
Neither team has been impressive; both teams have been inconsistent. In the end, Jason Richardson will probably match the production of Joe Johnson, and Al Horford and Josh Smith will do as well as anyone can at stopping Dwight Howard. Which isn't saying much.
The difference in this series will probably be Hedo Turkoglu. His height and playmaking ability will produce an obstacle for which Atlanta has no answer. Orlando's bench is deeper, and should ultimately help the Magic prevail over their Southwest Division "rival."
Prediction: Magic in 6
How the Hawks can win: Joe Johnson has to show up and Kirk Hinrich has to play the best basketball of his career. Coach Larry Drew also needs to be more creative with his offensive schemes.
The Magic may have lost their best perimeter defender in Michael Pietrus, but even Jason Richardson and Gilbert Arenas can scheme for and stop the Joe Johnson isolation sets that Atlanta notoriously and predictably runs.
Boston Celtics vs. New York Knicks
3 of 4
Knicks fans will be delighted to see basketball being played in their building in late April. They'll have more to cheer about, too; they'll have a good showing against the defending Eastern Conference Champions.
But that's about it.
The Celtics haven't been the same since trading Kendrick Perkins, but even without him, the Celtics have too many big bodies for the Knicks to contend with over the course of a 48 minute game, much less a (potential) 7 game series.
If Chauncey Billups can exploit his size and strength advantages against Rajon Rondo, the Knicks will have a chance to win. But ultimately, Doc Rivers and Boston's Big 4 will probably find a way to neutralize Carmelo Anthony's effectiveness and the Knicks 3-point shooting.
Knicks fans should be satisfied, at least this year, with taking two games against Boston in the first round.
Prediction: Celtics in 6
How the Knicks can win: The combination of Bill Walker and Landry Fields would have to morph into Bruce Bowen; shut down Ray Allen on the defensive end, while hitting 40 percent of the corner 3-pointers on the offensive end. Toney Douglas would also need to make a name for himself in the 2011 NBA Playoffs.
Long story short, for the Knicks to have any chance, they'd need to play consistent defense on the interior, outbound Boston, and shoot over 40 percent from distance. None of those three have a great chance of happening, and that's why you can't bet on them.
We should assume that Carmelo Anthony and Amar'e Stoudemire can match the offensive output of Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett, which explains why all four are mostly absent from this discussion.
Miami Heat vs. Philadelphia 76ers
4 of 4
Despite their ups and downs, Miami has to be one of the favorites heading into the playoffs. The reason why they are so intriguing is because we will find out if having enough talent can overcome deficiencies in rebounding, depth, chemistry, and teamwork. Are Lebron, Wade, and Bosh that good?
Probably not, but they are good enough to overcome Philadelphia.
Make no mistake, the Heat's defense has been suffocating all season long, and they do a great job of turning forced turnovers into easy baskets. It would be nice to see Eric Spoelsta do a better job of coaching offense, but Miami need not worry about getting upset by Philadelphia.
The cheese steaks' perimeter defense is decent, but nowhere near good enough to stop Lebron James and Dwyane Wade. And on the interior? Let's just say they're not the 2004 Detroit Pistons.
Prediction: Miami in 5
How the 76ers can win: Andre Iguodala would have to neutralize Lebron James by slowing him down on the defensive end and matching his production on the offensive end. Dre has shown the ability, but not the consistency. Additionally, the 76ers would have to continue to play 10 deep and play to their strength; their depth.
If the 76ers have at least three different players lead the team in scoring over the course of the series, I'd say they'd be in good shape. But overall, it's really difficult to see the 76ers winning this matchup without Dwight Howard (or the like) in the paint.
