2011 NBA Playoff Predictions: Los Angeles Lakers vs. New Orleans Hornets
Finally.
We made it.
The NBA's long and grueling 82-game regular season came to a close last night, and it took all 48 minutes (plus an extra five minutes of overtime) of the 82nd game to finally determine the playoff seeds.
When all was said and done, the Lakers clinched the No. 2 seed in the West and will face the No. 7 seed New Orleans Hornets in the first round of the playoffs.
With 9 seconds remaining in what could possibly be the last game ever played in Arco Arena, the Lakers trailed by three, staring at a No. 3 seed and a date with the extremely dangerous Portland Trailblazers.
However, Kobe Bryant went into playoff mode a little early, knocking down the game-tying three with 4.8 seconds remaining, forcing overtime.
Despite blowing a 22-point lead with just over 9 minutes left in regulation, the Lakers pulled away thanks to an 11-0 run after trailing 103-102 early in the overtime period.
And after all the drama in Laker Land over the past 24 hours, from Bynum's knee injury to Kobe's homophobic slur, things are suddenly falling into place for the two-time defending champs.
First, we got word that both Bynum's and Barnes' MRI results revealed nothing serious and that both would be available for the first game of the playoffs.
Next, the Lakers pull out a wild win in Sacramento, clinching the No. 2 seed and securing home-court advantage in the second round against the winner of the Dallas/Portland series.
Finally, we find out the Memphis Grizzlies did everything in their power to avoid playing L.A. in the first round by losing to the Clippers last night at the Staples Center.
Now, the Lakers are matched against the New Orleans Hornets, a team they beat all four times during the regular season, a team missing it's leading scorer in David West and a team the Lakers have a huge size advantage against.
Clinching the No. 2 seed also afforded the Lakers an extra day of rest. They will play Game 1 on Sunday instead of playing in the 3/6 match-up on Saturday.
They won't play Game 2 until Wednesday, so the Lakers are essentially playing just one game over a week-long span, a much-needed breather for a banged up, veteran-laden team seeking to make it's fourth consecutive trip to the Finals.
After the past two wild nights where they were forced to expend every ounce of energy they had, the Lakers can collectively catch their breath and allow Bynum, Barnes and Steve Blake to get healthy for the first round.
If my predictions are accurate (and they usually are), the Lakers will have home-court advantage in the Western Conference Finals vs. Oklahoma City and again in a NBA Finals rematch with the Boston Celtics.
Things just always seem to fall into place for this team, don't they?
Now, let's take a look at why the Lakers will win their first round match-up against the New Orleans Hornets...
5. No David West
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David West suffered a season-ending knee injury on March 24th, leaving the Hornets without their leading scorer (18.9 points per game) and second-leading rebounder (7.6 rebounds per game).
This series already doesn't seem fair from the get-go.
Without West, the Hornets will struggle mightily to score points and keep pace with the Lakers.
New Orleans already struggled to score points with West in the lineup (94.9 points per game, 27th in the league), and you now have to wonder where they will get production from with him on the bench
It's going to have to come from West's replacement, Carl Landry, former Laker Trevor Ariza, backup point guard Jarrett Jack and streaky-shooting guard Marco Belinelli...not exactly murderer's row.
Jack did have 22 points last night against the Mavericks and Belinelli has averaged 15 points per game in his last three while shooting 17 for 31 from the field. However, they still managed to lose by 32 points in Dallas.
As you can see, matching up with the Hornets in the first round of the playoffs was a huge break for the Lakers, and this is one of the main reasons why.
4. Significant Advantage Inside
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The Hornets were small even when 6'9", 240 lb power forward David West was in the starting lineup.
Without him, they are borderline diminutive.
Look, no one matches up with the Lakers when they can trot out three All-Star caliber players with 7-foot wingspans (6'10" Lamar Odom has a 7'4" wingspan). Some teams can come close, but New Orleans isn't even on the same planet when it comes to interior size.
The comparison looks like this—6'10" Emeka Okafor, 6'9" Landry and 6'8" Ariza vs 7' Bynum, 7' Gasol and 6'10" Odom. The Hornets do bring 7' Aaron Gray off the bench for 13 minutes per game to get an extra three points and four rebounds if that interests you in any way.
Look for the Lakers to play inside-out, pounding the ball inside repeatedly and wearing down the Hornets' thin front line game after game.
3. Key Stat: Point Differential
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I'm a stat guy—plain and simple.
I love to analyze numbers and various stats when it comes to sports. One of the key stats I always look for is point differential. I find it to be much more important than a team's win-loss record because it digs a little deeper.
So, based on point differential, who are the top four teams in the NBA?
The Lakers have a point differential of 6.1 points per game, outscoring opponents by an average score of 101.5 to 95.4. Meanwhile, the Hornets have a point differential of 0.9 points, outscoring opponents by an average score of 94.9 to 94.
This is a pretty accurate indicator of what to expect in the upcoming series, where the Lakers should win every game fairly comfortably.
2. Bench Play
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If you watched the NBA Finals last year, it was crystal clear how important bench play was for both the Lakers and the Celtics.
In Game 4, Doc Rivers actually kept his starters on the bench in the fourth quarter as we watched Glen "Big Baby" Davis and Nate Robinson combine for 30 points, leading the Celtics to a 96-89 victory.
This year, the Lakers have the eventual sixth man of the year winner in Odom to go along with Barnes, Shannon Brown and Blake. It's no secret this second unit hasn't always played up to its potential this year, but when it does, it's the best bench in the league.
Odom should have been an All-Star this season while both Blake and Barnes were starters prior to arriving in L.A. Brown has probably been the Lakers most improved player this season and seems to be heating up at the right time after scoring 15 points last night, while hitting 6 of 11 shots from the field in 16 minutes off the bench.
Brown hasn't scored 15 points since February 22nd versus Atlanta, the first game after the All-Star Break.
Meanwhile, the Hornets bench leaves a lot to be desired. Now that Landry has been inserted into the starting lineup as a result of West's injury, backup point guard Jack and shooting guard Willie Green are the only real threats off the bench for New Orleans.
They can cancel out Brown and Blake, but they still don't have an answer for Odom and Barnes (if healthy).
1. Kobe vs. Ariza
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The Hornets will assign Ariza the unenviable task of guarding Kobe in their first-round match-up.
Having been a key component of the Lakers title run in 2009, Ariza definitely knows Bryant's tendencies on offense, which will give him an ever so slight edge over the average defender.
However, when all is said and done, no one in the world can truly slow down Bryant, and Ariza will have to expend so much energy on defense that he will likely become a liability on offense for a team that is already going to struggle mightily to score points.
Kobe will likely outscore Ariza by 20 points per game, giving the Lakers another huge advantage on their long list of reasons why they will not only win the series but sweep the series, just as they did in the regular season.
Final Prediction, Lakers sweep 4-0.
