NBA Playoff Predictions 2011: 10 Reasons Why the Miami Heat Will Beat the 76ers
The 2011 postseason seedings have officially been set, and while the Miami Heat haven't achieved the No. 1 seed that they were hoping for at the beginning of the season, they still were rewarded with the second seed and home-court advantage against every team in the East aside from the Chicago Bulls. After a roller coaster ride of a season, Miami can now look towards their first-round opponent in the Philadelphia 76ers for the next two weeks.
The second seed is ideal for the Heat considering that they could have ended up with the third seed and having to face the streaking New York Knicks in the first round before potentially having to take on the Boston Celtics without home-court advantage. Instead, Miami takes on a Philadelphia 76ers squad that has been reeling as of late after having a successful three months following the All-Star break.
Miami has played very well against the Sixers this year, going 3-0 with their most recent win coming at the end of March. Their other two wins came early in the season when the Heat were struggling to establish chemistry, and the 76ers were limping out of the gate. Considering that Miami had started 9-8 and Philadelphia started at 3-13, these seedings are just about all these two teams could ask for. Philly has also exceeded expectations a season after missing the postseason.
Even though Philadelphia has played the Heat tough this year with all three of the games being decided in the fourth quarter, the Heat still hold advantages at just about every position in the starting lineup. Aside from taking on the eighth-seeded Indiana Pacers, this could be the most ideal matchup for the Heat this postseason. Philadelphia has played admirably all year and could be motivated entering their first postseason in two years, but the Heat still hold three key advantages: LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh.
Now begins the journey of what the NBA world has been waiting for—seeing just how well these three can play at the next level.
Offensive Firepower
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The Miami Heat and Philadelphia 76ers are only separated by three points per game in each team's respective offensive output with the Heat averaging 102 and the Sixers with 99 per contest. Miami gets over half of those points from three players, while the Sixers see a little more balance within their roster considering that they have six players currently averaging double figures. Even though the Sixers have a scoring balance, the Heat's Big Three contain just as much scoring prowess and then some.
The Heat hold one of the most significant advantages when it comes to offense having three players that can score at will at any given moment. There are only so many defensive matchups that you can throw at a team like Miami before something has to give and one of these players eventually finds a way to score. Philadelphia has been a terrific defensive club this year, but they're lacking the players with the offensive prowess to match up with Miami.
Andre Iguodala and Louis Williams are completely capable of taking a game over on offense, yet it's still no match for what Dwyane Wade, LeBron James or even Chris Bosh can do when they are streaking and hitting their shots. In the two teams' last meeting, it was clear that any member of the Big Three could go off at will after using a huge second quarter run to erase an early 16-point deficit.
Perimeter Defense
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Even though the Sixers are 22nd in three-pointers made and 15th in overall three-point percentage as a team, they still have the players capable of causing some havoc from beyond the arc. The two best shooters on the team in Jodie Meeks and Louis Williams have already torched the Heat a few times in the teams' three meetings. Meeks has hit eight three-pointers in only two games, while Williams recently lit up the Heat for 24 points in their latest meeting.
One problem that has seemed to show up at the most inopportune times for the Heat has been their perimeter defense, as it showed when they allowed Meeks to hit five three-pointers in one game and Williams to hit four in another. Determining the outcome of a game is easier when you notice just how well the Heat decide to play the perimeter. At times, they can appear lackadaisical and lazy, but other times, they can appear motivated and inspired and close out on every shot.
Against the 76ers, there aren't too many three-point shooters to worry about, but there are two that the Heat need to make an effort on to not allow either player to get into an offensive rhythm. When the team is hustling and closing out on every shot, they can easily be considered one of the best defensive teams. They'll need to pour out as much effort as possible to beat this Sixers squad and the clubs to come after.
Playoff Experience
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Aside from Elton Brand, the Philadelphia 76ers have one of the youngest starting lineups in the NBA. Andre Iguodala at 27 years old and Elton Brand at 32 are the only two players to be above 25 years old and actually receive significant playing time. The team's starting point guard Jrue Holiday is only 20 years old, starting center Spencer Hawes is 22 and starting shooting guard Jodie Meeks is only 23. The 76ers have the advantage over the Heat in youth which could help them out as far as endurance and stamina goes, but it's a disadvantage for them to go against a veteran laden team in Miami.
Miami has the oldest team in the NBA with the average age of a player on the roster being 30 years old which plays out well for the Heat in what is set to be a lengthy postseason. The fact that nearly every player on this team has had some sort of playoff or even championship experience is a huge advantage against a team that has a roster compiled of players that haven't come close to a championship or even to a postseason.
LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Udonis Haslem, Eddie House, Zydrunas Ilgauskas and Erick Dampier have all been to an NBA Finals in their careers. Compare that to the 76ers roster who only has two players that have been to the final stage of the postseason. With most of Philadelphia's roster just making their first postseason appearance, it'll be interesting to see just how they react to playing at a bigger stage against a team that has been here many times before.
Chris Bosh vs. Elton Brand
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He might not be worth the $80 million that Philadelphia is paying him, but Elton Brand is finally making a positive impact on the team that he has now been on for three seasons. The 80 games is the most he has played since arriving in Philly and the 15 points on 52 percent shooting is the most he has averaged since he arrived there as well. He is also back to rebounding at an impressive rate at eight per game after only averaging a career-low six last year.
As nice as it has been to see Brand finally perform to the standard that the 76ers have been waiting for, his game still pales in comparison to that of Chris Bosh's. The former Toronto Raptor superstar has seen his numbers drop to career lows of 18 points and eight rebounds per game, but it doesn't diminish the work that he has put in all season long and more so over the past two months. Bosh has finally begun to look for more of his points from inside than out after struggling with his jump shot.
A large advantage that Bosh holds over Brand is his speed and agility. At 6'11", Chris has quality speed for a player of his size and stature. With Brand's age and injuries possibly affecting him this late into the season, it wouldn't come as a surprise if the 76ers have to use back up power forward Thaddeus Young to defend Bosh instead. For the Heat to thrive this postseason, they'll need all they can get from Bosh which means they are going to need him to drive the lane as much as possible.
Miami's Size...Wait What?
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Yeah, can you believe it? Miami actually has the advantage this time around when it comes to overall size. As difficult as it has been to watch the Heat attempt at out-rebounding opposing teams, they shouldn't find any problems in attempting to out-rebound a small Philadelphia 76ers team. In the teams' three meetings, the Sixers were able to out-rebound them by a combined two rebounds, but the Heat had a definitive lead in the third meeting with a 49-31 advantage.
Aside from just rebounding, Miami is surprisingly deep when it comes to size in the middle. They'll most likely start Erick Dampier at center but can come off the bench with a myriad of other big men that includes Zydrunas Ilgauskas or Jamaal Magloire. The team can also use Joel Anthony or Chris Bosh as a center due to the lack of size that the Sixers possess under the rim. Philadelphia's starting center in Hawes is hardly an answer to any defensive or rebounding troubles that they could have against the Heat.
Elton Brand, Thaddeus Young and Marreese Speights all bring rebounding and defense in the paint, but they still don't have the size to compete with the Heat's various seven-footers. In that third meeting where the Heat out-rebounded Philadelphia by 18, they had three different players with at least 10 rebounds. Those three players being each member of the Big Three.
Miami 3, Philadelphia 0
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When you face a team in the postseason for a seven-game series, a team usually wants to know just how they can beat their opponent. It was critical for the Miami Heat to defeat the Boston Celtics in that final meeting this past Sunday, so that not only could they clinch the second seed, but to be reassured that they do have what it takes to actually beat the Celtics. When a team has consistently beat you with ease, there needs to be some sort of breakthrough made.
The Philadelphia 76ers will unfortunately have to wait until the postseason if they want to make that breakthrough against the Miami Heat. Despite playing the Heat well in two of the three meetings, the 76ers were never able to break through and beat Miami. In the first meeting, they cut a 26-point fourth quarter deficit to single digits before eventually losing by 10. They had led throughout most of the last two meetings but were outscored significantly in the fourth quarter when the Heat picked up their defense and began to score at will on offense.
Philadelphia has definitely given Miami some steady competition in every game, but they have yet to prove to themselves that they are completely capable of beating the Heat. Their fourth quarter woes have hurt them as they allowed the Heat to outscore them by seven in the second meeting and 16 in the final. Philadelphia might be motivated to finally triumph over the Heat in the postseason for the first time this year, but they'll need a complete overall effort if they want to rise up and overcome.
Home-Court Advantage
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There's a reason why 80 percent of teams with home-court advantage win their series. A team's stadium in the postseason possesses the most raucous environments in the league with none better than that of the Miami Heat. While Miami's fanbase isn't always the most respected due to the city's laid-back approach, one thing is for sure—the fans love a winner. The Heat's fanbase is easily one of the best in a playoff atmosphere.
Don't believe me? Then try and explain how the Florida Marlins average attendance in the regular season dances around 20,000 for most of the season and then explodes to over 70,000 in the postseason. The fans aren't exactly the most loyal when the team is losing, but that's obviously not the case this season as they have one of the most entertaining teams in the league today. The Miami community has been absolutely electric since the arrival of LeBron James and Chris Bosh and have always been huge supporters of Dwyane Wade since he was drafted in 2003.
As for the team at home, they haven't always been the best when on their home court. Their 27-13 road record nearly outshines their home record which is at 30-11. There really isn't an excuse or reason for some of the Heat's struggles at home, but it seems that this Heat team can play just as well on the road as it does in its own house. Miami shouldn't have too much to worry about against the 76ers at the American Airlines Arena considering that they are only 15-26 on the road.
Streaking Heat and Reeling Sixers
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For teams that aren't named the Boston Celtics, riding momentum into the postseason could be one of the most important aspects for a playoff team to possess. That's why it's easier to be scared of the Chicago Bulls who are currently riding an eight-game winning streak into the postseason than to be fearful of an Atlanta Hawks squad that has dropped six straight. In the case of the Heat and 76ers, Miami holds a definitive advantage over the past few weeks' worth of basketball.
Aside from the past two weeks, the Philadelphia 76ers were one of the NBA's hottest teams. They fully recovered from their dismal 3-13 start and have gone 38-28 since then with the majority of those wins coming after the All-Star break. Miami has been on a roller coaster ride of a season winning as much as 20 out of 21 games in one stretch and then losing five in a row the next. Lately though, they have been hot and have won 16 of their past 19 games.
With Philadelphia limping into the postseason, the Heat can continue to ride momentum and take advantage of the reeling 76ers. While it's completely true that the postseason and regular season are two different scenarios and every team practically starts at 0-0, when a team like Miami is hot and winning games with ease, they're going to be a tough to stop by a team like the Philadelphia 76ers.
LeBron James
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As I have stated and reiterated in my previous articles, there might be no NBA player more motivated to win an NBA title than LeBron James. After scorning the city of Cleveland over the summer, James has had to deal with the aftershocks of spurning pretty much an entire nations worth of NBA fans. From stadium to stadium, LeBron has heard boos, jeers and every name in the book from fans that once regarded him as an idol and a role model.
After going through a wild regular season, James has now reached a time where he can prove himself. After failing to advance to the NBA Finals last year, despite having the league's best record, James began to hear criticism of how he wasn't able to execute in the postseason. Even though he has a career average of 29 points, eight rebounds and seven assists in the postseason, LeBron has been looked at more for his inability to lead his team to a championship.
Against Philadelphia this year, LeBron has had up-and-down performances. Andre Iguodala has been the anchor to the 76ers defense this year and is one of the best wing defenders in the league. It shows from his ability to keep even the best small forwards in the league. However, James might have finally figured Iguodala's game out in the final meeting when he lit him up for 32 points and 10 rebounds.
In the postseason, a motivated LeBron James could be one of the most dangerous players to come across this year.
Dwyane Wade
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39 points, 11 rebounds, eight assists, five blocks and three steals...
That is the stat line Dwyane Wade posted in the final meeting between the Heat and 76ers. It was only the second stat line of its kind in the past 25 seasons with the only other player to do it being Shaquille O'Neal. This wasn't the only absurd stat line Wade posted against the 76ers as he scored 30 points in the first meeting and finished with 23 points, eight assists and six rebounds in the second meeting. Dwyane has been the only player on the Heat to consistently have quality outings against Philadelphia.
How does Dwyane thrive so well against the 76ers? It's pretty easy to say because the 76ers simply don't have a defender capable of keeping up with Dwyane. Starter Jodie Meeks doesn't contain the experience or strength to be able to defend Dwyane, and Louis Williams is far too undersized to keep up with Wade. The only option the 76ers would have would be to place Iguodala on Wade and take a risk by placing Andres Nocioni on LeBron James.
That's the beauty of having two of the top players in the game on the same team. There will usually be at least one or two players that has a clear-cut advantage over their defenders. It's completely possible for Iguodala to limit James, and Brand can even limit Bosh at some point over the series, but the Sixers still have no definitive answer of defending Wade. He'll be the one to lead Miami out of the first round and to an eventual second-round date with either the Boston Celtics or New York Knicks.
