2011 NBA Playoff Predictions: The X-Factor for Each Playoff Team
The 2011 NBA Playoffs are just around the corner. In this year's playoffs, we see many returning teams, such as the Los Angeles Lakers and Boston Celtics, and then we see some less-common teams such as the Memphis Grizzlies and the Indiana Pacers.
Each team has their core players—the superstars that fans go to watch because of their remarkable play and unquestioned leadership. Then, there are the role players.
After the superstars, who are the X-factors on each team—that one player that can make the biggest difference whether putting up points or shutting down the opponents best scorer?
Let's find out.
Memphis Grizzlies
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The Memphis Grizzlies have had a great season, especially looking at how they performed after losing arguably their best player, Rudy Gay. Zach Randolph has had another very good season, averaging a double-double.
We all expected Randolph to have his usual season, but players like Tony Allen, Sam Young and Mike Conley have really picked up the slack after losing Gay.
In the playoffs, they say defense wins championships. The X-factor for the Grizzlies will be guard Tony Allen.
Allen is a terrific defender. We saw during his time with the Boston Celtics that he would be in for key defensive possessions because he is an annoyance to the opponent. He is athletic and persistent.
We'll see Tony Allen matched up against Manu Ginobili or Kobe Bryant depending on where the Grizzlies finish. And if they match up with Dallas, we'll probably see him on Jason Terry fairly often.
Tony Allen will have his biggest effect on the defensive side. Allen is not a great offensive player; however, we have seen his shooting percentage rise throughout his career. He is currently shooting 51 percent on the season.
New Orleans Hornets
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The New Orleans Hornets are missing their second-best player in David West. We all know Chris Paul is one of the top point guards in the league. So who is going to be the player who steps up in the playoffs to possibly help them get through the first round?
Emeka Okafor and Marco Belinelli have played significant roles throughout the entire season, but I see a newer face being the X-factor come Saturday.
Carl Landry—the power forward who was brought over when Marcus Thornton was dealt to the Sacramento Kings—will be filling the open forward spot with the absence of West. Landry can provide the energy on both sides of the ball that the Hornets will need.
If the Hornets match up with the Lakers, Landry will definitely have his hands full. He will be guarding Lamar Odom, as well as Pau Gasol if Andrew Bynum is healthy enough to play. The two seven-footers may give Landry some trouble with their size, but Landry has the quickness and athleticism to keep up.
Landry will play an even bigger role if they wind up facing the Dallas Mavericks in the first round because he will be assigned to guard their best player, power forward Dirk Nowitzki.
Portland Trail Blazers
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Gerald Wallace was brought over from the Charlotte Bobcats in the middle of the season. Brandon Roy, their one-time star, is still trying to find his groove and get back to his superstar ability.
LaMarcus Aldridge is having a better season than anyone expected. He has carried the team to the playoffs playing both the power forward and center positions.
Because Brandon Roy is still not himself yet, Gerald Wallace will be Portland's X-factor. He will be playing as the small forward or shooting guard in Roy's spot while Roy comes off the bench.
Wallace has transformed himself from a raw athlete to a very good player over the course of his career. Because of his athleticism and dynamic defending, he will be key for the Blazers.
The Blazers will be playing the Los Angeles Lakers or the Dallas Mavericks, so Wallace will see time guarding Kobe Bryant or Shawn Marion.
Wallace will also be important on the offensive end of the ball. Wallace crashes the boards, and in the process, throws down some scary putback slams. He averages just over 15 points nightly, and has improved his shooting over the years.
Denver Nuggets
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The Denver Nuggets have been a remarkable story this season. All of the Carmelo Anthony drama finally ended with the departure of the superstar and the arrival of some very good players.
It's difficult to pick out one X-factor for Denver because of all of the new faces. However, one player with a significant impact will be Wilson Chandler.
Wilson Chandler is one of the better defensive players in the NBA and can guard either forward position, and sometimes the shooting guard. Chandler's numbers and minutes have gone down since his arrival in Denver, but if the Nuggets face the Oklahoma City Thunder in the first round, he will be very important.
Chandler will have a tough assignment should they face OKC in the opening round, as he would spend a lot of time and energy defending Kevin Durant. Durant, as everyone knows, is an incredible scorer. He is long, quick and can score from anywhere on the court.
Chandler gives up a couple inches on Durant, but has the strength to defend Durant inside. Chandler's biggest difficulty will be running around all of the screens set for Durant. If Chandler can find away to stay attached to Durant, he can make quite an impact on the series.
Oklahoma City Thunder
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The Oklahoma City Thunder were everyone's favorite team last year. They were the young guys who were not afraid of anyone and gave the Los Angeles Lakers arguably their toughest series. This year, the Thunder may face off against the Denver Nuggets.
The Thunder guards don't get to catch a break this series. The Denver guards are very quick and versatile. Oklahoma City's X-factor will be from the guard position off the bench, specifically, Eric Maynor.
Thabo Sefolosha is a very good defender, and James Harden is a good all-around player. Maynor can make an incredible difference off the bench.
The two Denver point guards, Ty Lawson and Raymond Felton, will continue to push the ball. They know how to attack the basket and set up teammates. Russell Westbrook, who is having an great season, can not do it all himself.
Maynor will have to do a few things to be successful. For starters, he can not turn the ball over. If Felton or Lawson can take the ball from him and get into the open court, you're in trouble. Maynor will also have to commit himself on defense, because as stated earlier, Felton and Lawson know how to move the ball.
Lastly, Maynor will have to be patient with his offense. Felton and Lawson can be pests on defense, so it is important for Maynor to not make any unnecessary passes and to not force and shots.
Dallas Mavericks
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The Dallas Mavericks are the one team that always has a good regular season but can't seem to find much success in the playoffs. This season, they have a very good mix of youth and veteran leadership that might lead to success.
Dirk Nowitzki and Jason Kidd are going to be the same players they've always been. They know how to play in the playoffs, and they will find success. Same goes for Jason Terry.
The X-factor for the Dallas Mavericks will have to be the big man in their starting lineup, Tyson Chandler. Chandler has one job: anchor the defense. As long as Chandler stays out of foul trouble, he will be effective.
Chandler has a long body and gets his hands on a lot of shots, and if he does not block a shot, he will force opponents to alter them.
Chandler is an athletic big man with the ability to run the floor, which is very important for the Mavericks. When you have a point guard like Jason Kidd, you need big men to run the floor because Kidd will find them streaking.
Los Angeles Lakers
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Originally, my pick for the Los Angeles Lakers X-factor was Lamar Odom. I decided to switch it only because with Andrew Bynum's injury, Odom is an obvious factor, and was even before the injury.
The Lakers will be facing either the Memphis Grizzlies, New Orleans Hornets, or Portland Trail Blazers. Kobe Bryant will see the team's best defender, as always, in each series. No matter who guards Kobe, you know he's still going to get his numbers.
Kobe can't do it all on his own. He will have plenty of help from Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom offensively, but they also need a bench player to give him a rest and be effective at the same time.
The Lakers X-factor will be Matt Barnes. If Barnes can get healthy for the playoffs, he will bring the intensity that the Lakers need. He is a very good defender, attacks the basket, crashes the boards and can hit the outside jumper.
We saw Barnes' fire recently when the Lakers defeated the Dallas Mavericks. He knows how to get inside opponents' heads. In short, Matt Barnes is a pest.
Barnes' defense and intensity will be key for the Lakers, as long as he can stay healthy. If Barnes can't go, they will need Shannon Brown to play a bigger role off the bench.
San Antonio Spurs
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The San Antonio Spurs are one team that always puts together a winning season, with their veteran core leading the way. Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili and Tim Duncan have all led the Spurs to the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference.
Come playoff time, everyone knows what to expect from the Spurs' big three, but what about the rest of the team? George Hill has matured in his time in San Antonio and will be an important factor, and we know what we'll get with Antonio McDyess and Richard Jefferson.
The Spurs have typically been a defensive-minded team in recent years. They switched gears a little this year and became one of the league's top offensive teams.
Gregg Popovich's new scheme allows for more scoring opportunities. Because of that, the Spurs X-factor will be the rookie, Gary Neal.
Gary Neal has played an important role on the Spurs roster all season. He has provided excellent outside shooting off the bench, shooting 42.1 percent on the season.
Neal will be given the green light to take shots throughout the playoffs, and he has the ability to hit them. If San Antonio can hit from long range, it makes it even tougher for opponents to catch up.
Indiana Pacers
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The Indiana Pacers have their star in Danny Granger and solid role players in Darren Collison and Tyler Hansbrough. In the series against the Chicago Bulls, Hansbrough, Collison and Granger will all be tied up with their own matchups.
The one player that can make a big time difference in this series can be Paul George. The 6'8" rookie forward has limitless potential and we've seen glimpses of what he can be throughout the season.
George has not put up staggering numbers this season, but the playoffs could be a time where he emerges. He'll be called on to be a versatile role player; he has the ability to defend, attack the basket and rebound the basketball.
If George sticks to his abilities and commits on defense, he can make a huge difference for Indiana and give them a chance to make this a series. George will have a chance to guard Luol Deng and Carlos Boozer at different times.
Philadelphia 76ers
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The Philadelphia 76ers have shown a lot of heart and resilience this season. After a 3-13 start, coach Doug Collins has been able to turn the team around.
The Sixers, who were in contention for the sixth seed for awhile, have a difficult matchup ahead of them against the Miami Heat. The Sixers lost all three games against the Heat this season.
The Sixers have had one of the best benches all season, and Lou Williams and Thaddeus Young are obviously important to the team; however, the X-factor of this series will be Evan Turner.
Evan Turner will be called upon mostly for defense off of the bench. Jodie Meeks—who was my honorable mention—will not be able to guard Dwyane Wade all night. The same goes for Andre Iguodala, one of the league's top perimeter defenders. Iguodala will also see a lot of time guarding LeBron James.
Turner will come in as a shooting guard and small forward at times, and will be assigned to guard Wade, James, Mike Miller and James Jones. Jones and Miller are both very good shooters and everyone knows how good Wade and James are, so Turner's defense is going to be extremely important.
Offensively, Turner won't be looked at to score a lot. He has a less-than-mediocre jumper, but can handle the ball and create when he attacks the basket. Wade and James are both very good defenders so the Sixers offense will most likely run through other options.
New York Knicks
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In the first round, the New York Knicks will face off against the Boston Celtics. The Celtics had a less-than-amazing end to their season after trading away center Kendrick Perkins, and lost hold of the No. 1 seed.
The Knicks landed superstar Carmelo Anthony, a move that looked like it was backfiring for awhile. The Knicks caught fire recently, winning seven of their last eight with only Boston left to play on Wednesday night.
The X-factor for the Knicks will be backup point guard, Toney Douglas.
Douglas had a solid season, averaging 10 points and three assists off the bench, but played very well when Chauncey Billups was out.
Douglas can defend and knock down the three. His quickness can have an effect on both sides of the ball, especially in transition. Douglas will see some time up against Rajon Rondo and Delonte West.
If Douglas is able to keep Rondo from penetrating and getting his teammates involved, the flow of the Celtics offense will be off. Rondo is the key to making the Celtics tick, and Douglas has the quickness to keep up with him.
Atlanta Hawks
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The Atlanta Hawks had a rough series last time they played the Orlando Magic. Joe Johnson, their star player, seemed to be invisible.
This season, the Magic have a different team but have still surrounded their big man, Dwight Howard, with a lot of talent. Howard, an MVP candidate, is a force in the paint defensively and improved his offense in the offseason to make him even more difficult for opponents.
The Magic also have excellent perimeter shooters. Along with being able to spread the floor, Hedo Turkoglu and Howard run a very good pick-and-roll offense.
Turkoglu is very dangerous when handling the ball. He can shoot, pass and protect the ball. The Hawks X-factor will be Marvin Williams, who will be defending Turkoglu.
Hedo is not the most agile forward in the league, so he could have some difficulty defending Williams if Williams stays on the attack. Defensively, Williams can not allow Turkoglu to shoot open threes and he can not allow him easy passes, especially to Howard on the pick-and-roll.
Orlando Magic
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The Orlando Magic run through Dwight Howard. They have a variety of options other than Howard.
Howard only has one problem: He finds himself in foul trouble sometimes, which causes problems for the Magic—particularly on defense. Unlike last season, there is no Marcin Gortat to come off the bench as a true center.
The Magic X-factor will have to be Ryan Anderson. Anderson can play the power forward and center positions. Both positions require tough assignments on either Josh Smith or Al Horford.
Anderson has a good jump shot with range out to the three-point line. He is also a big body that can get in the paint and rebound the ball.
Anderson is not a pure center, but is still 6'10" and can mix it up in the paint.
Anderson will be called upon in relief for Brandon Bass and Dwight Howard throughout the game, but his most important minutes will come in relief of Howard, especially if Howard is in foul trouble.
Boston Celtics
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The Boston Celtics have their big four in Rajon Rondo, Ray Allen, Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett. The Celtics may have made a mistake during the season trading away Kendrick Perkins to the Oklahoma City Thunder.
The center position is not the same in Boston now. Glen Davis will probably see more minutes there than their other listed centers.
In the playoffs, we might see the Celtics play smaller—especially against the Knicks, as they don't have a true center.
The X-factor for the Boston Celtics will be forward Jeff Green. Green will be an important factor off the bench. Not only will he give Garnett a breather, but he will be key if Doc Rivers is forced to adjust his lineups.
If the Celtics decide to play small, they would move Garnett over to center and Green to the power forward spot. Green is also versatile enough to play the small forward position if the Celtics go with a bigger lineup, or just to give Pierce a rest.
Green will see time against Amar'e Stoudemire, Carmelo Anthony and Shawne Williams, so he will definitely be busy.
Miami Heat
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The Miami Heat made some of the biggest moves this past offseason. Their big three seem to be working so far, even after a few bumps on the way.
The Heat made a very significant move midway through the season. That move was signing their X-factor, Mike Bibby.
The Heat signed Bibby to bring consistency to their point guard position. Bibby isn't the best defender, but he can run an offense and protect the ball. Bibby also is a very good shooter.
The Philadelphia 76ers were very good at defending the three this season, so Bibby won't get a ton of open looks. He will be guarded by Jrue Holiday, who—in only his second year—is a very good defender.
Bibby will need to protect the ball this series. The Sixers are a very dangerous team in the open court. If Miami turns the ball over, it will just make it harder on themselves. Bibby is smart with the ball and will make good decisions.
Chicago Bulls
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The Chicago Bulls and MVP candidate Derrick Rose have had a great run in the regular season. The Bulls will be matched up against the Indiana Pacers. The Bulls won three of the four games in the season series.
The Bulls may have the best rebounding team in the playoffs with their two big men, Joakim Noah and Carlos Boozer.
The Bulls bench has also been very good this season after the acquisitions of Ronnie Brewer, C.J. Watson and Kyle Korver.
The X-factor for the Bulls will be Luol Deng. Deng will need to be as consistent as he's been all season. They will call on him to score and defend. Deng will match up with Danny Granger often in the first series. Granger is a proven scorer but Deng has the ability to contain Granger.
The Bulls cannot let Granger go off and score too many points because he can be deadly. Indiana also can not underestimate the ability of Deng's game. He can be a game-changer.
