Projecting Celtics' 2022 NBA Playoff Ceiling

Look for most recaps of the Boston Celtics' 2021-22 NBA season to include some mention of how this was the best of times and the worst of times.

It has been a tale of two seasons for the Shamrocks—the first, a frustration-filled race to nowhere, and the second, a fiery-hot closing stretch doing everything in its power to erase doubts about this team.

So where do the Celtics reside? Are they the juggernauts they have appeared to be the past month or so or the pretenders they looked like before then?

We'll help answer that question by projecting Boston's playoff fate with best-case, worst-case and likely outcomes for the road ahead.

Best-Case Scenario

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The full range of possible outcomes includes a championship run.

The mere suggestion of such a thing would have gotten someone laughed out of a room several weeks back, like when Boston set a perfectly equal 25-25 at the 50-game mark. But the month-plus stretch that followed has reshaped the imaginations for what this club can do.

The Celtics are a mind-numbing 16-3 with a gargantuan plus-13.7 net rating ever since, per NBA.com. They have this stretch's best defense (by a mile) and its sixth-most efficient offense, giving Boston the two-way balance history has often demanded of its champions. With Jayson Tatum crashing the superstar ranks, Jaylen Brown shining as a high-end co-star and Derrick White fitting like a glove, the Shamrocks are checking every box as a full-fledged contender.

If the defense doesn't relent and Tatum maintains this type of production (28.8 points on 47.8/35.5/86.4 shooting), Boston could have everything it needs to take home its first title since 2008.

Worst-Case Scenario

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As great as the past month or so has been, that doesn't erase the 50 games prior to it.

The Celtics stuttered out of the gate—their first two outings were a double-overtime loss to the New York Knicks and a 32-point drubbing at the hands of the Toronto Raptors—and took months to start clearing up those frustrations. Their defense was disjointed early, and their offense hasn't always elicited a ton of confidence in the non-Tatum options.

If Brad Stevens has one regret from his first season in the front office, it might be not investing in a shooter at the deadline. Boston sometimes gets squeezed for spacing, and if its shooters can't keep opponents honest in the playoffs, that could prove a critical error in the construction of this club.

It's hard to see the Celtics skidding into the Play-In Tournament, but they easily could lose their first-round series. It will almost certainly come against a really good team—the Chicago Bulls as things stand—so if Tatum can't get it rolling, his supporting cast underwhelms or both, Boston's playoff run could be over soon after it starts.

Likeliest Outcome

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Given how bunched up things are atop the Eastern Conference, the likeliest outcome for most teams is probably a first-round exit. When there's only a seven-game gap between the Nos. 1 and 7 seeds—and the No. 8 seed is a Brooklyn Nets team that might be the best of the bunch at full strength—it's not a stretch to imagine anyone beating anyone else.

Having said all of that, the Celtics are in a good enough groove to think that one series win is more likely than not.

This depends on matchups, though, because Boston could have a hard time handling the Milwaukee Bucks, Philadelphia 76ers or Nets. But the Celtics probably should be favored against either the Bulls or Cleveland Cavaliers, and a matchup with the Miami Heat might be a coin-flip.

Boston might have dreamed bigger than the conference semis entering this season, but considering some of the campaign's rough patches, punctuating it by winning a playoff series and putting up a strong fight in another wouldn't be the worst outcome.