Even Without LeBron in the Way, Warriors' Title Run Has More Hurdles Than Ever
Less than an hour after winning his third championship in four years last June, Golden State Warriors head coach Steve Kerr was asked in the postgame press conference if his team would play in its fifth straight Finals next summer in Boston or Cleveland.
The Warriors' spot in the 2019 Finals seemed inevitable even a year in advance, given their talent, chemistry and star players locked into contracts. Toronto, fresh off a second-round sweep at the hands of the Cavaliers, wasn't even listed as an option.
Much has changed in a year.
The Raptors and Kawhi Leonard are now kings of the East and pose a legitimate threat to the Warriors' throne. Having already defeated the 51-win Philadelphia 76ers and NBA-best 60-win Milwaukee Bucks, Toronto is a worthy Finals opponent.
The Warriors' biggest problem, however, may come from within.
While there's no denying Golden State should be the favorites against Toronto, this may be the toughest Finals they've played in. This isn't to say the Raptors are better or worse than any of the previous Cavs teams, including the version that took down Golden State in 2016.
Instead, these Warriors will face an entirely new set of challenges.
In that same postgame interview last June, Kerr said that winning title No. 3 was the most difficult, due primarily to the cumulative fatigue.
"Yeah, it was definitely the toughest from the standpoint that it's the fourth year in a row that we've attempted to get back to the Finals," Kerr said. "I remember sitting in this room three years ago; it seemed like a dream. This feels more like reality."
That grind has only continued, fueled by free-agency rumors and recent injuries circling some of the most prominent Warriors.
The most glaring question now becomes: Has Kevin Durant played his final game in Golden State?
Durant, averaging an NBA-high 34.2 points per game this postseason, has already been ruled out for Game 1 following a calf injury suffered May 8. There's a chance he won't play at all in the Finals before he hits unrestricted free agency this summer.
It's not that the Warriors can't win without Durant. Losing just one of their last 32 games when KD sits and Stephen Curry plays ensures they can, but having Durant to both defend and draw attention from Leonard would open things up for the rest of the Warriors.
The issue will be if Durant's calf heals halfway through the Finals. The same goes for DeMarcus Cousins (listed as questionable for Game 1) and his potential return from a torn quad muscle.
The return of one (or both) will mean making a big adjustment to the rotation and changing the way the Warriors play.
Curry thrived with an increased role (36.5 points, 7.3 assists on a 34.6 percent usage rate) during the Durant and Cousins-less Western Conference Finals sweep of the Portland Trail Blazers. This is a major jump from his 27.3 points, 5.2 assists and 30.4 percent usage of the regular season when he shared the spotlight with Durant.
Adding Cousins only takes the ball out of Curry's hands more and forces Kerr to shake up his rotation once again. The Warriors played at a pace of 98.0 possessions per game with Cousins on the floor this season, compared to 102.7 for Curry. If Golden State goes up 2-0 or 3-1 in the series with Curry and Klay Thompson playing at a high level, how much will Kerr really want to force Durant and Cousins into his starting lineup if both are still nicked up?
Unlike the previous four Finals, the Warriors won't have the added comfort of home-court advantage, either. Winning 57 games in the regular season compared to Toronto's 58 may sting, especially given the Raptors' elevated play at home (32-9 versus 26-15 on the road).
For the first time during that span, Golden State will be forced to win a Finals game outside Oracle Arena.
They put this advantage over Cleveland to good use, going a combined 7-1 during Games 1 and 2 over the past four years before even having to get on a plane. By the time the Cavs could catch their breath and play a contest on their home floor, they were in a 0-2 hole each of the past three years. The only time they came back to Cleveland tied 1-1 was in 2015 when Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving were already lost for the season.
Toronto has a chance to flip the script.
If the Raptors win one or both games above the border and put pressure on the Warriors, it could lead to a snowball of problems for the defending champs.
Is Kevin going to leave if we lose?
Would Klay even consider skipping out?
We have to get DeMarcus more touches!
What if Draymond and Kevin start to go at it again?
Never before has Golden State faced so many potential off-the-court issues. It was always just about basketball, being able to focus on the opponent at hand and not having to worry about where the guy beside you in the locker room may sign that summer.
The Warriors were the league's most joy-filled team, often going 10 to 12 men deep for years before Durant arrived and destroying opponents with never-ending depth, playmaking and outside shooting.
That joy and depth, at least for long stretches this season, have gone missing.
Now, the Warriors could toss all these issues to the side and play their classic "we have more talent than you card" and win their fourth Finals in five years.
For the first time, however, cracks in Golden State's foundation are showing.
Their spot in next year's Finals? No longer a guarantee.
Greg Swartz covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter. All stats via Basketball Reference or NBA.com unless otherwise noted.
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