The 10 Biggest NBA Draft Steals Since 2000
NBA teams have shown time and again that it's possible to hit the jackpot in the draft even when you don't win the lottery.
Dating back to 2000, many players drafted 15th or later—much later in some cases—have developed into All-NBA talents, providing their respective franchises with incredible return on investment.
Second-round picks Draymond Green and DeAndre Jordan became multimillionaires, but neither had a seven-figure salary until their fourth season. Even first-round picks, like Giannis Antetokounmpo (selected 15th overall) and Rudy Gobert (27th overall), often don't make the big bucks until they cement themselves as stars.
Rankings for our top 10 NBA draft steals since 2000 are based on a combination of value added and where in the draft each player was selected. Even though a player drafted 16th may be better than one drafted 45th, the latter player may be ranked higher because he was more of a diamond in the rough.
Honorable Mentions
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Chris Paul (No. 4 in 2005)
It's hard to argue that the fourth pick in a draft was a steal, as none of our top 10 players were lottery picks. But Paul (171.5 win shares) is one more healthy season away from bypassing Kobe Bryant (172.7), Reggie Miller (174.4), Charles Barkley (177.2) and David Robinson (178.7) on the NBA's career win shares leaderboard. The nine-time All-Star and eight-time All-NBA selection almost has as many win shares as the combined total of the three players selected ahead of him in the 2005 draft—Andrew Bogut, Marvin Williams and Deron Williams (who are at 190.6).
Stephen Curry (No. 7 in 2009)
Similar to Paul, Curry was left out of our top 10 because he was drafted in the lottery. Although, when you consider that Hasheem Thabeet, Tyreke Evans, Ricky Rubio and Jonny Flynn were all drafted ahead of Curry, there's a strong case to be made that the Warriors committed highway robbery by getting this two-time MVP at seventh overall.
Paul Millsap (No. 47 in 2006)
Excluding those two lottery picks, Millsap was the toughest omission. It wasn't until his fifth season that he hit his stride, but the four-time All-Star has been rock-solid throughout his 13-year (and counting) run in the NBA. No other player drafted 25th or later in 2006 has more than 30 win shares, but Millsap is sitting at 88.2.
Kyle Lowry (No. 24 in 2006)
Like Millsap, it took a few years for Lowry to carve out a significant role in the NBA. He only started 30 games in his first four seasons. But by year five, he had become an indispensable starting point guard, especially over the past seven seasons with Toronto. Lowry has been named an All-Star in each of the last five seasons. Had he been an early second-round pick instead of a late first-rounder, he probably would have made the cut.
Carlos Boozer (No. 35 in 2002)
The Booze Cruise was a more-than-serviceable big man for more than a decade. At his peak in 2006-07 and 2007-08, he averaged at least 20 points and 10 rebounds per game in back-to-back All-Star seasons. On his career, he averaged 16.2 points and 9.5 rebounds per game. He only spent two sub-.500 seasons with the team that drafted him (Cleveland), and then the Utah Jazz more than got their money's worth out of him for the next six seasons.
Gilbert Arenas (No. 35 in 2001)
Knee injuries and the handguns-in-the-locker-room incident limited Agent Zero to just six full, healthy seasons, but he was incredible at his peak. Arenas earned All-Star and All-NBA honors in three straight seasons, averaging 27.7 points, 5.7 assists and 1.9 steals per game during that stretch. The only other players from that draft to earn All-NBA honors multiple times were Pau Gasol and Tony Parker.
Michael Redd (No. 43 in 2000)
Like Arenas, Redd's career was cut short by knee injuries. But from the beginning of the 2002-03 season through the first torn ACL in January 2009, Redd averaged 22.0 points per game and shot better than 38 percent from three-point range. Had the Bucks provided him with any sort of supporting cast while he was healthy, perhaps he would have a more memorable legacy among fans outside of Milwaukee.
Jarrett Allen (No. 22 in 2017)
Mitchell Robinson (No. 36 in 2018)
It's too early to stack these young guys up against great players who have been in the league for more than a decade. However, early returns suggest Allen and Robinson were egregiously underrated by draft scouts around the nation.
In terms of career win shares, Allen (11.9) is No. 2 from the 2017 draft class, trailing only Jayson Tatum (12.0) by a decimal point. And Robinson (6.1) led all rookies in that category this past season, despite playing more than 800 fewer minutes than both Deandre Ayton (5.8) and Luka Doncic (4.9).
10. Isaiah Thomas
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Draft: No. 60 in 2011
Career Stats: 18.6 PPG, 5.1 APG, 36.0% 3PT, 20.3 PER, .152 WS/48, 2x All-Star, 2017 All-NBA
This list would be incomplete without 2011's Mr. Irrelevant.
Far more often than not, the last pick of the NBA draft doesn't amount to anything. Since the 1989 switch to the current two-round format, the only final picks to accumulate at least 2.5 career win shares are Zeljko Rebraca (8.3 win shares; drafted last in 1994), Don Reid (13.7 win shares; drafted last in 1995) and Isaiah Thomas. Five of the last 10 players selected 60th overall have yet to even appear in a game.
Thomas is quite the exception.
A hip injury has limited his availability for the past two seasons, but Thomas averaged more than 1,400 points in his first six years in the league. He was immediately good with the Sacramento Kings, and his time with the Boston Celtics was when he became a star. The pint-sized scorer averaged 24.7 points and 6.0 assists during those two-plus regular seasons, and he was a phenom during their run to the 2017 Eastern Conference Finals.
Not only are the numbers impressive, but Thomas has a flair for the dramatic. He has been nicknamed the "King of the Fourth" because of how often he took in the clutch for the Celtics.
9. DeAndre Jordan
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Draft: No. 35 in 2008
Career Stats: 9.6 PPG, 10.9 RPG, 1.6 BPG, 18.5 PER, .173 WS/48, 3x All-NBA, 2x All-Defense, 1x All-Star
If free throws hadn't been such a liability throughout DeAndre Jordan's entire decade with the Los Angeles Clippers, he would've been a strong candidate for No. 1 on this list.
During an era in which the NBA gravitated toward big men with at least some range on a jumper, Jordan continued to thrive as a "traditional" center.
While nowhere near the overpowering force of nature that Shaquille O'Neal was, DJ and Diesel are kindred spirits in their refusal to develop any sort of presence outside the restricted area. But when you make 67 percent of your two-point attempts and average nearly 11 rebounds per game, why even bother trying to expand your game?
In 2013-14 and 2014-15, Jordan led the NBA in rebounds. He finished second behind Andre Drummond in each of the subsequent three seasons. And, though he never ranked No. 1 in blocked shots in a year, he and Serge Ibaka were the only players to accumulate at least 1,000 rejections between 2010-11 and 2016-17.
Through it all, he shot just 1-of-11 from three-point range and, despite hitting an improved 70.5 percent of his free-throw attempts this past season, he is 46.6 percent from the line on his career. Still, the No. 35 pick in the 2008 NBA Draft has more career win shares (83.4) than everyone else drafted that year, except for Russell Westbrook (96.9).
8. Draymond Green
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Draft: No. 35 in 2012
Career Stats: 9.1 PPG, 6.9 RPG, 4.9 APG, 1.4 SPG, 1.1 BPG, 15.3 PER, .139 WS/48, 3x All-Star, 2x All-NBA, 4x All-Defense, 3x NBA Champ, 2017 Defensive POY
It's always hard to know where to rank Draymond Green because his per-game numbers are nothing special.
Day-Day has 22 regular-season triple-doubles over the past six years, trailing only Russell Westbrook, LeBron James, James Harden and Nikola Jokic. But Green is a defensive-minded, jack-of-all-trades, master-of-none type of player. With the exception of steals per game and defensive box plus/minus in 2016-17, Green has never led the NBA in any category for a season.
However, he is clearly one of the most indispensable players for a franchise that has been impeccable since drafting him.
After going 23-43 during the strike-shortened 2011-12 season, the Warriors took Green early in the second round with their third pick of the draft. Since then, they are 420-154 (73.2 percent) during the regular season with three NBA championships. They improved immediately during the first two seasons of getting his feet wet, but they have been almost unstoppable since he started logging at least 30 minutes per game as a starter over the last five seasons.
Yes, Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Kevin Durant, Andre Iguodala and others have had a lot to do with that success, but Green's defensive versatility and playmaking are what paved the way for this team to become a juggernaut. It would not be hard to argue that he belongs even higher in this ranking, even though his career PER and Win Shares marks are substantially worse than everyone in the top five.
7. Tony Parker
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Draft: No. 28 in 2001
Career Stats: 15.5 PPG, 5.6 APG, 18.2 PER, .140 WS/48, 6x All-Star, 4x All-NBA, 4x NBA Champ
Two years after getting Manu Ginobili with the next-to-last pick of the 1999 NBA Draft, the San Antonio Spurs struck oil once again with the last pick of 2001's first round. Tony Parker was the Spurs starting point guard just one week into his NBA career, and it took 16 years for him to relinquish that role.
Like a fine wine, Parker is the type of player who we came to appreciate more and more with age.
Aside from briefly becoming a more assertive scorer during the 2008-09 season while Ginobili was injured, Parker has always been more of a facilitator than a dominator. But that should be read as a compliment, because he was the leader of a team that was consistently a threat to win the title.
He just wasn't going to blow anyone away with his statistics, as he never led the league in any category for a season.
And yet, because of his durability, consistency and longevity, Parker is one of just five players in NBA history with at least 19,000 points and 7,000 assists. The other four are LeBron James, John Stockton, Oscar Robertson and Gary Payton. Russell Westbrook is right on the verge of joining that club, too, but those are some legendary names in the company of a guard who wasn't drafted until Kirk Haston, Joe Forte, Jeryl Sasser and Brandon Armstrong all came off the board.
6. Marc Gasol
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Draft: No. 48 in 2007
Career Stats: 15.0 PPG, 7.7 RPG, 3.4 APG, 1.5 BPG, 18.5 PER, .144 WS/48, 3x All-Star, 2x All-NBA, 2013 Defensive POY
Marc Gasol's entire career has been overshadowed by what his big brother (Pau) was able to achieve.
Pau was great from Day One, winning Rookie of the Year in 2001-02 before making six All-Star teams, four All-NBA teams and playing for two NBA champions. He averaged at least 17 points per game in 13 of his first 14 seasons. Pau is one of the best big men in the past two decades.
Marc understandably has been unable to live up to those lofty standards and has been underappreciated as a result. But when comparing the younger Gasol to an average NBA frontcourt player instead of comparing him to the older Gasol, there's no question that Memphis pulled off quite the heist by getting him at No. 48 in the 2007 draft.
Marc Gasol was rock-solid throughout his 11 seasons with the Grizzlies. He never averaged 20 points, 10 rebounds or two blocks in a season, but he finished above 11 points, six rebounds and one block every year. So, even though he never put up league-leading numbers, he has consistently been much more valuable than a replacement-level player.
Gasol even re-branded himself as a perimeter threat at the age of 32, making 104 three-pointers (at a 38.8 percent clip) in the 2016-17 season after shooting just 12-of-66 from downtown in his first eight years.
5. Kawhi Leonard
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Draft: No. 15 in 2011
Career Stats: 17.7 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 1.8 SPG, 38.3% 3PT, 22.6 PER, .219 WS/48, 4x All-Defense, 3x All-Star, 2x Defensive POY, 2x All-NBA, 1x NBA Champ, 2014 Finals MVP
Like Rudy Gobert, part of the reason Kawhi Leonard feels like such a steal is because he was traded on draft night. In this case, the Indiana Pacers took Leonard at No. 15 before dealing him and the rights to two international prospects to the Spurs for George Hill. At least Hill worked out better for Indiana than Erick Green did for the Denver Nuggets, but that's a move the franchise regrets.
For his first few years in the NBA, Leonard was primarily known for his defensive prowess. He led the league in steals per game in 2014-15, won the Defensive Player of the Year award, and earned it again the following season—joining just eight other players to win the award more than once.
It wasn't until Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili started reaching the end of the line that Leonard began to assert himself on offense.
Once he did, he immediately became one of the most valuable players in the Association. He finished second in the MVP vote in 2015-16 and came third in 2016-17 prior to sitting out most of the 2017-18 campaign. He didn't get rusty during that time off, either, as he set career highs in both points (26.6) and rebounds (7.3) per game in his first year with the Toronto Raptors.
Prior to a statistical dig, Leonard would seemingly be one of the top candidates for our No. 1 spot. However, the No. 30 pick in his draft (Jimmy Butler) has more career win shares, and the No. 15 pick in the 2013 draft (Giannis Antetokounmpo) is already a bigger star. Still, top five is nothing to sneeze at.
4. Rudy Gobert
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Draft: No. 27 in 2013
Career Stats: 11.1 PPG, 10.5 RPG, 2.2 BPG, 21.5 PER, .218 WS/48, 2x All-Defense, 2018 Defensive POY, 2017 All-NBA
Rudy Gobert is the only player in our top 10 who has not yet been named an All-Star, but what in the world is it going to take for voters to realize that he is one of the best in the business?
The Stifle Tower has blocked 854 shots over the past five seasons, which is the most for any player during that half-decade. And that's despite missing 49 games. The only players within 200 blocks of Gobert were Anthony Davis (820) and Hassan Whiteside (783). Gobert was named the Defensive POY in 2018, but he legitimately could have won in each of the last five seasons.
Gobert is also one of only three players with at least 4,000 rebounds over the past five seasons, joining Andre Drummond and DeAndre Jordan in that club.
And while he doesn't shoot all that often, he sure is efficient when he does. Gobert posted a league-leading 68.1 true shooting percentage in 2016-17 and 68.2 in 2018-19. The only other players during that three-year window to have a season with at least 60 games and a TS% of at least 68 were Dwight Powell and Mitchell Robinson this past season.
So I ask again, how is it possible that Gobert has not been selected as an All-Star yet?
(The real steal here is that the Utah Jazz traded a second-round pick and cash considerations to the Denver Nuggets for Gobert on draft night. Denver then took Erick Green with that second-rounder, who amassed a grand total of 0.1 win shares in his NBA career. How wild could Denver be right now if it had just held onto Gobert, considering it also drafted Nikola Jokic the following year?)
3. Jimmy Butler
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Draft: No. 30 in 2011
Career Stats: 16.7 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 3.5 APG, 1.6 SPG, 20.0 PER, .184 WS/48, 4x All-Star, 4x All-Defense, 2x All-NBA
The 30th pick in the draft usually doesn't amount to much. In most cases, that's where the team with the previous season's best record makes its first-round selection. And because those teams are typically loaded with talent, they either draft for depth or take a flyer on a guy who might blossom one day. However, over the past 13 years, it hasn't often worked out.
In the five years before the Chicago Bulls took Jimmy Butler with the 30th pick, the players taken in that spot were: Joel Freeland, Petteri Koponen, J.R. Giddens, Christian Eyenga and Lazar Hayward. If you don't recognize any of those names, you're forgiven. Those players averaged 62.4 games played and 0.6 win shares for their careers.
Kyle Anderson, Kevon Looney and Josh Hart have fared better than that in recent years, but among 30th picks dating back to 2006, Butler (66.1) is the only one with at least 16 career win shares.
Initially, it looked like he was going to be just another end-of-the-first-rounder for the scrap heap. In his rookie season, Butler barely saw the court and averaged 2.6 points per game. By year four, though, he was one of the more valuable players in the league. During each of his four All-Star seasons (2015-18), Butler averaged at least 20 points per game and had a PER of 21.3 or higher.
His legacy will perhaps always be tainted by his less-than-amicable exits from both Chicago and Minnesota. But, for as long as he's able to continue playing at a high level, playoff contenders will be willing to overlook his prima donna attitude.
2. Giannis Antetokounmpo
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Draft: No. 15 in 2013
Career Stats: 18.8 PPG, 8.3 RPG, 4.1 APG, 1.3 BPG, 1.2 SPG, 21.9 PER, .168 WS/48, 3x All-Star, 2x All-NBA
A big part of what makes Giannis Antetokounmpo such a steal at No. 15 is how bad the rest of that 2013 draft class was.
No. 1 overall pick Anthony Bennett is already out of the NBA. Same goes for both players selected directly before and after Giannis (Shabazz Muhammad and Lucas Nogueira, respectively). After six years, the only 2013 draft picks to earn an All-Star nod are Giannis and No. 2 overall pick Victor Oladipo—and it wasn't until Oladipo's fifth season that he started to play like a guy worthy of a lottery pick.
If we could go back in time and redo that draft knowing what we know now, the only player other than Antetokounmpo even remotely worth considering at No. 1 is the aforementioned Rudy Gobert (No. 27).
But even if the Greek Freak had gone 15th in the 2003 draft class that featured LeBron James, Carmelo Anthony, Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade in its top five, he'd still be one of the biggest steals of the 2000s.
At first, he seemed like a bust. Antetokounmpo shot 41.4 percent from the field and averaged 6.8 points and 4.4 rebounds with a 10.8 PER as a rookie. Since then, however, he has improved in each of those four categories, culminating with marks of 57.8 percent from the field, 27.7 points, 12.5 rebounds and a 30.9 PER this season.
Not only was that PER high enough to lead the NBA, it was only the 13th time in NBA history that a player finished a season at 30.8 or higher. The others to do it were Michael Jordan (four times), LeBron James (three times), Wilt Chamberlain (three times), Stephen Curry and Anthony Davis.
It took a few years for Antetokounmpo to get his sea legs, so to speak, but the things that this man can do on a basketball court just don't seem physically possible. He wasn't quite deemed good enough to be a lottery pick, and that looks foolish in hindsight.
1. Nikola Jokic
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Draft: No. 41 in 2014
Career Stats: 16.3 PPG, 9.6 RPG, 5.1 APG, 1.1 SPG, 24.8 PER, .214 WS/48, 1x All-Star
It took four seasons and an incredible postseason performance against the San Antonio Spurs, but the Joe Average basketball fan is finally starting to realize just how incredible Nikola Jokic is.
The seven-footer from Serbia averaged 23.1 points, 12.1 rebounds and 9.1 assists in the seven-game series in the first round of the 2019 playoffs. He had two triple-doubles (building on his 12 during the regular season), a 43-point game and 10 made three-pointers.
In just his fourth season, Jokic has quickly emerged as one of the most unguardable players in the world.
Just look at the efficiency numbers if you don't believe it. He is one of only 10 players with at least 1,500 minutes played and a PER of at least 25.0 dating back to the beginning of the 2016-17 season. The other 10 are James Harden, Anthony Davis, Giannis Antetokounmpo, LeBron James, Kawhi Leonard, Kevin Durant, Stephen Curry, Russell Westbrook and Karl-Anthony Towns.
That's one hell of a list of names. And with the exception of Towns—who was the No. 1 overall draft pick in 2015—"Joker" is the only member of that group who hasn't been in the league for at least six seasons. He was also taken at least 26 picks later in the draft than each of those other nine players, which makes him one of the greatest steals in NBA draft history.
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