The Golden State Warriors' Ultimate Test Is Here
With four consecutive NBA Finals trips and three world titles, the Golden State Warriors have settled the debate of whether it's better being lucky or good.
It's best to be both.
Golden State's talent base has been the Association's strongest since Steve Kerr grabbed the coaching reins in 2014 and unleashed an egalitarian offense that unlocked this team's full potential. The gap between the Warriors and everyone else only widened as players like Kevin Durant and DeMarcus Cousins shifted this collection from stacked to you've-gotta-be-kidding-me.
That's the good (great, really) side of things. The luck stems from the favorable treatment this squad has seemingly received from the basketball gods.
Remember that initial championship run in 2015? The one where Doc Rivers said the Dubs were fortunate to duck both his Los Angeles Clippers and the San Antonio Spurs? Maybe that take was off-base, but Golden State caught breaks in every round, as Jrue Holiday, Mike Conley, Patrick Beverley, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love were all either slowed or sidelined by injury.
In 2017, Kawhi Leonard's ankle injury might have been a series-shifter. A year later, Chris Paul's hamstring strain felt the same.
That's not to diminish anything the Dubs have done. Golden State's greatness has always been the biggest factor in its championship banner-raising years.
The Dubs have, however, largely avoided the worst kind of playoff sweats. Because of this dominant-plus-fortunate combination, they've had just as many sweeps as series of six-plus games in this stretch (five each).
That could change this year. There are internal and external reasons to believe the Warriors will get challenged like never before.
It's commonplace to label them their own biggest threat, mostly a reminder of their absurd star power. The team rarely shifted into top speed this season (the Death Lineup logged just 178 minutes together), but it knows no one else's speedometer goes as high.
"There is no reason to believe the Warriors can't flip the switch and march to the finals, just like they did last year," Benjamin Hoffman wrote for the New York Times. "The only potential obstacles seem to be a significant injury ... or a boredom with domination so deep that they loaf their way to a shocking upset."
Health risks obviously loom over every team, but the Warriors have a few pressing concerns on that front. Although they might swear they aren't concerned with Stephen Curry's sprained ankle, there's never a comfortable conversation about Curry's ankle, especially this time of year. Plus, Cousins is still just 30 games into his return from a ruptured Achilles.
But the red flags go beyond injury issues.
Chemistry has been a concern since Durant and Draymond Green's public feud in November and, while that's been dubbed water under the bridge, the team had a what's-wrong-with-the-chemistry emergency meeting just last month. Something (joy? anger?) has been missing for much of this season, and who's to say the start of the playoffs will ensure its return?
Four straight appearances in the championship round would exhaust anyone, and what happens when you get tired? You become more easily frustrated. It takes a special kind of togetherness to fight that off, and maybe there's too much future uncertainty to form it.
Durant isn't expected to stick around past this summer. With Green's contract up in 2020, he might not be long for the Warriors, either. This could be Cousins' last chance for a fat contract, which Golden State can't afford. Shaun Livingston sounds ready to retire. Klay Thompson is a free agent, and while he's likely to stay, his next deal will restrict an already tight budget.
Even general manager Bob Myers might consider moving on.
"This could be the last time this iteration of the Warriors—one of the best teams in history—will play as a unit," Haley O'Shaughnessy wrote for The Ringer.
The pressure to perform, then, is massive, and that's before getting into the historical significance of a three-peat, which only the Kobe Bryant-Shaquille O'Neal Los Angeles Lakers and Michael Jordan-Scottie Pippen Chicago Bulls have pulled off in the three-point era.
No one has more to lose than the Warriors, and it's not close.
Golden State's external challenges start with a plucky first-round overachiever, then perhaps run through three straight rounds of legitimate challengers.
The first opponent, the Los Angeles Clippers, might have zero chance at an upset, but they'll make the Warriors work, especially on defense. Lou Williams, Danilo Gallinari and Montrezl Harrell all average more than 16 points, and Landry Shamet feels like he hasn't missed a triple since relocating to L.A. at the deadline.
L.A. might also have some extra insight on Golden State with former Warriors consultant Jerry West now a part of its front office.
"It's a good basketball team," Green said, per NBC Sports Bay Area's Logan Murdock. "They play well together all year. Even with the team trading Tobias [Harris], they've continued to keep it together. They know their roles and they play their roles well."
Take care of business, and the Warriors either draw the Houston Rockets or the Utah Jazz in the conference semis.
Houston was arguably an ill-timed injury to Chris Paul away from dethroning the champs last season, and while it has lost some depth since, it also uncovered a new layer of offensive production from MVP candidate James Harden. The bearded baller averaged a whopping 36.1 points per game this season, the most since Michael Jordan in 1986-87.
"His production is incredible," Thompson told reporters earlier this season. "... Playing a guy who averages such high numbers, you're settling for 25 or 30 if he scores that many, instead of 40."
Golden State allowed 108.5 points per 100 possessions this season (11th overall), easily the worst mark during Kerr's tenure. Harden could push this defense to the brink, especially if Paul rediscovers his All-Star form.
The other second-round possibility are the Jazz, who trailed only the Warriors and Milwaukee Bucks in net efficiency once the calendar flipped. Utah could wear out the Warriors with length, relentlessness and punctual rotations. And Donovan Mitchell's second-half surge shows how much of a problem he could be (26.7 points on 46.1/45.1/82.7 shooting after the All-Star break).
Escape that round, and four potential opponents are looming.
The 55-win Denver Nuggets have a one-of-a-kind offensive fulcrum in Nikola Jokic and their own ranged assassin at point guard in Jamal Murray. The Portland Trail Blazers' perimeter tandem of Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum defines the term "tough cover." The Oklahoma City Thunder have Russell Westbrook and Paul George ('nuff said). The San Antonio Spurs have Gregg Popovich (ditto).
Win that round, and it's back to the NBA Finals, for the first time against someone other than LeBron James—and potentially a more threatening matchup than even the King had been the last couple of years.
The Philadelphia 76ers might have the best non-Death Lineup quintet in the NBA with Joel Embiid, Jimmy Butler, Ben Simmons, Tobias Harris and JJ Redick. The Boston Celtics always defend the Warriors well with Brad Stevens calling the shots, and Kyrie Irving has gone toe-to-toe with this team before. The Milwaukee Bucks have the MVP frontrunner in Giannis Antetokounmpo, plus defenders versatile enough to keep up with the Dubs.
And finally, there's the Toronto Raptors, the only team to sweep Golden State this season. They have Kawhi Leonard to bother Durant, Kyle Lowry and Danny Green to blanket the Splash Brothers, OG Anunoby to spell any of the three and a center for any situation. Marc Gasol can bang with Cousins, while both Serge Ibaka and Pascal Siakam can chase around Draymond Green (or sag off Andre Iguodala).
"[Toronto] is a team that matches up well with Golden State—they are long and switchable on defense, they know how to get buckets and they now have a clear closer," NBC Sports' Kurt Helin wrote. "... The Warriors would and should still be favorites in this potential Finals matchup, but the Raptors are poised to make it work."
Championship runs are ever easy, it's just that the Warriors sometimes make them appear that way.
If they do that again this year—with this kind of pressure, turmoil and no shortage of worthy challengers—we might as well crown this core the greatest to ever share the court.
J.A. Adande joins Howard Beck on the Full 48 podcast to discuss Magic Johnson's sudden resignation as president of the Los Angeles Lakers.
Statistics courtesy of Basketball Reference and NBA.com.
Zach Buckley covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter: @ZachBuckleyNBA.
