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How Isaiah Thomas' Impending Return Impacts Cavaliers

Greg SwartzNov 29, 2017

That slow grind is almost over.

Isaiah Thomas is nearing his return from a hip injury, ready to take the reins as the starting point guard of the Cleveland Cavaliers. While the Cavs originally gave him an estimated return date after the new year, all signs are pointing to a December debut for the All-Star floor general.

"I'm almost there," Thomas told Joe Vardon of Cleveland.com, adding he's not yet 100 percent.

"If I could average 30 points a night, I'd be out there already," he said. "I can't right now, so I'm not out there yet."

Thomas has been practicing with the team and has started contract drills.

When the point guard does return, the Cavs will be adding the league's third-leading scorer from 2016-17 and a player who should comfortably be their best outside of four-time NBA MVP LeBron James. While he will undoubtedly provide a major boost for Cleveland, some issues will also arise.

Load off LeBron

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After leading the NBA in minutes per game last season at 37.8, LeBron James is once again at the top of the league in his 15th campaign.

His 37.0 minutes per night rank third, behind only Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton of the Milwaukee Bucks. No other player in his 30s falls in the top 15 in average court time.

James' minutes have been a concern as he's grown older and accumulated nearly a decade of NBA Finals trips, but he's always seemed to brush it off. Until now.

Golden State Warriors forward Draymond Green told Sam Amick of USA Today that he thought the Cavs were playing James too much, and the soon-to-be 33-year-old agreed.

"Draymond's right," he told Joe Vardon of Cleveland.com after the comments were relayed to him. "We want to get those minutes down for sure. But as of right now, we've had two point guards out, and we've had some different lineup changes. So, I've had to play more minutes than I would like and more minutes than my teammates would like me to have."

James' relief is nearly here.

While his minutes should fall slightly, the amount of work he puts into those minutes is the real story. James has started two games at point guard this season and unofficially plays the position on a regular basis with both Thomas and Derrick Rose sidelined with injury.

James is one of only 17 players with a usage rating of 30 percent or higher. Having a dynamic point guard has lowered his workload in the past, as evidenced by his rating when Kyrie Irving played in Cleveland.

When James took the court without Irving, his usage rating soared to 34.2. When the two stars shared the floor, James' usage fell back to 27.9 percent.

Pairing Thomas with James should have a similar effect.

Rotation Changes

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The Cavs have used eight different starting lineups this season, including four different point guards.

A backcourt that once started Derrick Rose and Dwyane Wadeand failed miserably—should stabilize with Thomas and JR Smith. James and Kevin Love will make up the front court in some fashion, leaving head coach Tyronn Lue to decide between Tristan Thompson and Jae Crowder as his fifth starter.

This means a permanent move to the bench for Rose, who is away from the team with an ankle injury. According to ESPN.com's Adrian Wojnarowski, the 29-year-old guard is even contemplating retirement because of his constant need to rehab from various injuries.

Should Rose return, his spot in the rotation is not a guarantee.

Lue has said he won't push his rotation to more than 10 players, per Chris Fedor of Cleveland.com. Thomas, James, Love, Smith, Crowder and Thompson are all guarantees to receive minutes. Dwyane Wade, Kyle Korver and Jeff Green have played well enough to earn spots as well.

This leaves Rose to compete with Iman Shumpert and Channing Frye for leftover minutes after Thomas returns.

Offensive Boost

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Despite his size limitations at 5'9", Thomas can carry an offense with his variety of moves. 

He can hit the three ball (37.9 percent last season, 42.5 percent from the corners), dribble-drive by guys and use his body to create contact and finish at the rim.

Despite losing Irving and his 25.2 points per game in 2016-17, the Cavaliers offense has kept humming. It's fourth in the NBA without Thomas, scoring 109.8 points per 100 possessions. That's nearly as efficient as the 110.9 offensive rating Cleveland posted a season ago.

One of the big drop-offs the Cavs get from Irving to Rose is the lack of floor spacing and outside shooting. Last season, Cleveland routinely blitzed teams with its second-ranked three-point attack, averaging 13.0 threes per game on 38.4 percent shooting. And Irving led the team with 177 total treys. 

This season, the Cavs sit at 11.6 makes per game and 36.3 percent, down to sixth and 14th overall. Thomas made more threes than Irving last season (3.2 to 2.5 per game), and he should help push Cleveland up the rankings.

While not a traditional pass-first point guard, Thomas brings stability to the position and has proved he can create for others. 

While the Cavs possess the fourth-best offense in the NBA, they've struggled in point guard categories. Cleveland is only assisting on 55.9 percent of its baskets, 21st in the league. It also turns the ball over 14.9 percent of the time, tied for 14th overall.

Thomas will help everything run more smoothy, taking the ball out of the hands of Rose—assuming he returns—and Shumpert and increasing an already high-powered attack.

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Defensive Concerns

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Thomas' stature will always hold him back defensively, no matter how good of an effort he exerts.

While he helped improve the Boston Celtics by 14.4 points per 100 possessions offensively last season, the team gave back 9.7 points defensively when he was on the floor. That was also on a good hip.

Lue already has to be planning ways to hide Thomas as much as possible. JR Smith will likely draw the toughest backcourt assignment, provided the opponent's shooting guard doesn't (completely) tower over Thomas.

The Eastern Conference is loaded with star point guards likely licking their chops with the thought of facing Thomas on his recovering hip. In the playoffs, Cleveland could run into John Wall of the Washington Wizards, Kyle Lowry of the Toronto Raptors and Kyrie Irving before a potential meeting with Stephen Curry and the Golden State Warriors in the Finals. That's scary.

Thomas' saving grace has been his ability to outscore those who are picking him apart. We may see Lue use a defensive lineup of James, Crowder, Smith and Thompson more often to help cover for Thomas and the inevitable man who blows by him.

The (kind of) good news? Despite their recent strong play, the Cavaliers are 25th in defensive rating this season (107.7 points allowed per 100 possessions). So, would playing Thomas over Rose make them any worse?

We'll soon find out.

Future Implications

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It's no secret that both Thomas and James will be unrestricted free agents this summer. Their futures look tied to one another.

For James to agree to stay in Cleveland, he needs star power around him. Any star does, really, to compete with Golden State.

When Cleveland traded Irving, it closed the championship window a little bit more. Irving's rise to superstardom was expected to make it difficult for James to leave, since his supporting cast would be young and only getting better.

Thomas isn't as good as Irving in most areas, and he's three years older. Right now, however, he's the closest thing to a superstar James has to play with. 

If Thomas doesn't return to his near All-NBA playing style of last year or if his hip continues to hamper him throughout the postseason, the Cavs would be hard-pressed to sell James on a return to Cleveland. Kevin Love, Crowder, Wade and Company make for a fine supporting cast, but only Thomas gives them that Irving-esque star to compete for a championship with.

The Cavaliers need the Thomas experiment to work. The point guard needs it to work as well, given his desire for a major payday and the opportunity to win.

If all goes well, both Thomas and James could be back in Cleveland for years to come. If not, their potential dynamic partnership will be short-lived.

Greg Swartz is the Cleveland Cavaliers lead writer for Bleacher Report. Stats provided by NBA.com and Basketball Reference unless otherwise noted.

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