Cleveland Cavaliers: Bold Predictions for 2017-18 NBA Season
Can the Cleveland Cavaliers' upcoming campaign be anywhere near as entertaining as their offseason?
We're going to boldly say yes. And we're not even going to include that in our bold predictions for the 2017-18 Cavs, so enjoy the freebie.
Generosity aside, does anyone know what to expect from this team? The newcomers run the gamut from an injured All-Star and fading former greats to unproven prospects. Even the incumbents have a fresh feel thanks to role changes both subtle and dramatic.
There are too many unknowns for our crystal ball to process. But we're boldly pushing forward with our prognostications anyway and laying out our five favorites for this season's wine and gold.
Kevin Love Starts All-Star Game
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Cleveland was never going to get Minnesota Kevin Love, the electric scorer and relentless rebounder who made three All-Star appearances (including one start) in the loaded Western Conference. Having LeBron James alone meant the Cavs couldn't let Love monopolize offensive touches the way he had.
But each season Cleveland has gotten a better handle on how to utilize Love, and that process will be exaggerated now with Kyrie Irving gone and Isaiah Thomas out indefinitely.
"Kevin is going to have the best year that he's had here," Cavs coach Tyronn Lue told ESPN.com's Zach Lowe. "This year is going to be a big opportunity for him. We're going to play through him more."
Cleveland targeted him more last season, and he delivered his most points (19.0) and highest player efficiency rating (21.1) since joining the franchise.
But this is about more than increasing his volume. It's also about getting him back to his comfort zones. With Tristan Thompson moved to the second unit, Love should have more space for post-ups, a play he scored in the 83rd percentile during the 2015-16 campaign. He'll also find more elbow touches, which he had more of than anyone in 2013-14, when he averaged career highs in points (26.1) and assists (4.4).
Love's numbers should soar, and the timing couldn't be better. Four of last season's Eastern Conference All-Stars moved west over the offseason, leaving a path for the 29-year-old into the starting lineup.
Cavs Trade Nets' 2018 First-Round Pick
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If Cleveland needs to engineer a post-LeBron rebuild next summer—he has a player option for 2018-19—it's hard to imagine a better centerpiece than the Brooklyn Nets' 2018 first-rounder collected in the Irving-for-Thomas swap. The upcoming draft class appears to have multiple difference-makers, and grabbing one would at least give the reeling franchise a sense of direction.
But Cleveland might not want to wait that long. Since making the move, the Cavs have "fielded numerous calls already about a potential trade," per Cleveland.com's Joe Vardon.
There are two reasons to think a trade will happen. For starters, as long as James is on the roster, Cleveland is in the championship running. A 2018 draft pick can't help improve its odds, but a player acquired for it could exponentially. Bleacher Report's Dan Favale identified a handful of potential targets, and the list includes DeMarcus Cousins, Khris Middleton and Nicolas Batum.
Imagine the wealth of offensive firepower of a James-Thomas-Cousins-Love quartet. Or Cleveland going from lacking the defensive versatility to challenge Golden State to now putting Middleton or Batum alongside Jae Crowder and James.
Assuming nothing would convince James to stay more than another ring, shouldn't the Cavs be doing everything in their power to contend? Planning for a post-LeBron future is shrewd and all, but isn't extending his present in Cleveland the ultimate goal?
Besides, there's a chance the Nets aren't bad enough to deliver a franchise player. (Stop laughing; we're being serious.) They have improved their roster with the likes of D'Angelo Russell, Allen Crabbe, DeMarre Carroll and Jarrett Allen. And they have zero incentive to tank, which could be a popular strategy this season given the lottery changes coming the following year.
Bench Has Top-Three Efficiency
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While the Irving-Thomas trade deservedly dominated headlines, Cleveland used the bulk of its offseason to bolster the bench. The attention was not only necessary, it also appears time well spent.
The second unit's struggles were evident long before their Finals malfunction (minus-27 in 28 minutes without James). They finished the regular season ranked 28th in scoring (29.1) and 30th in assists (5.1). They were 14th in net efficiency (minus-1.3), and while that number doesn't sound terrible, it was the worst of a top-three seed in either conference.
Cleveland had some championship qualities, but a banner-raising bench wasn't one of them. The franchise's fate won't change unless that does, too.
"I think the second unit is going to have to be very good for this team to be as successful as it wants to be," Dwyane Wade said, per Vardon.
Once it gets to full strength, it could be elite.
That old itch for a playmaker has been scratched twice by Wade and Derrick Rose, who averaged 36.3 points and 8.2 assists combined last season. Tristan Thompson's move to the bench provides a more traditional big when needed, while Channing Frye is still around when they need a flame-throwing stretch 5. Kyle Korver is a premier shooter, and a cool-headed Iman Shumpert could be a consistent two-way contributor.
This unit's stock is way up, and that's without knowing whether Jeff Green, Jose Calderon, Cedi Osman or Ante Zizic might prove a pleasant surprise.
Cleveland Reaches 60 Wins
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The Cavs have two 60-win seasons in their history, both requiring superhuman efforts from James. Adding a third would take something similar from the King, but this team has arguably never given him more help.
Because this is such a star-driven game, it's rare to have a positive summer when the best player who leaves is better than the best one brought on board. But this club could be the exception provided several things break in its favor, as the Ringer's Kevin O'Connor opined:
"If Thomas is the same guy who scored 28.9 points per game on a ludicrously efficient 54.6 effective field goal percentage for the Celtics last season, or at least something close to him, then Cleveland will have enough scoring diversity to beat any opponent. Love would gain confidence and renewed comfortability until Thomas returns, while LeBron would be his same old dominant self. They'd finally have their 3-and-D player in Jae Crowder. Who knows—maybe Jeff Green contributes and Rose, reinvigorated in a new environment, finds a second wind to his career."
That's quite a few ifs, but none that are too outlandish.
There are also good odds of J.R. Smith bouncing back after a season slowed by a contract holdout and a fractured thumb. His 34.6 field-goal percentage was more than seven percentage points shy of his career average (42.0), and his 35.1 three-point mark was his worst since 2011-12. Just having him be more reliable will be a huge help, considering he was fifth on the club in minutes per game last year (29.0).
Plus, the East isn't what it was last season (and it wasn't great then). Cleveland's 22nd-ranked defense won't be the same either, except that's a good thing. If Irving's absence costs the Cavs anything on offense (not a given), they could get it back and then some with a stingier defense and deeper roster.
LeBron Wins Fifth MVP
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It's been four full seasons since James last collected the Maurice Podoloff Trophy, despite the fact he has occupied the best-player-on-the-planet throne throughout that time. If his four MVP wins in five years burned voters out, fatigue should no longer be a factor.
In fact, league executives like his chances better than anyone's, according to NBA.com's annual general manager survey. Half of the respondents tabbed James as their MVP pick; no one else collected even 30 percent of the vote.
"Like every year, especially this year, how he looks, how he feels I think he definitely has a great shot," Love said, per Vardon. "But that's not groundbreaking. He's going to come out and be LeBron James."
Without Irving or—for the time being—Thomas, James' scoring and distributing responsibilities could be the heaviest they've been since his return. That could skyrocket his counting categories while Russell Westbrook and James Harden lose some of theirs to their new superstar teammates.
Plus, James is sitting atop a mountain of motivation. Between Irving's trade request, Wade's arrival and his own impending free agency, he can refuel on any flavor of inspiration he chooses. Not to mention, a fifth piece of hardware would give him as many as that Windy City ghost.
Between narratives and numbers, success and significance, James will present the most compelling MVP case by season's end.
Cavs Lose Third Finals in Four Years
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Does a fourth consecutive championship-round meeting with the Golden State Warriors feel inevitable for the Cavs? They seem to think so.
"I can tell by schemes we've been putting in, it's all in place for that matchup, what those guys bring because they're very dynamic in how they play on the offensive end," Crowder said, per ESPN.com's Dave McMenamin.
This almost feels insanely early for matchup-specific prep work. Yet, because it's the Warriors and because LeBron hasn't been tripped up by an Eastern Conference obstacle in seven years, this seems strangely appropriate.
It's still not enough to help Cleveland even the score, though.
The Cavs lack the two-way prowess and in-prime star power to keep pace with the Warriors. Crowder only fills one defensive hole—the Dubs will simply exploit the rest. Thomas has shot below 35 percent or below in three of his last four tilts with Golden State. Love hit 38.8 percent in the Finals and 31.6 percent against the Warriors in the regular season.
For all of the roster adjustments, the end result remains the same. James can carry his club into the Finals, but he doesn't have the necessary help to conquer that round.
Unless otherwise indicated, all stats from Basketball Reference or NBA.com.
Zach Buckley covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter: @ZachBuckleyNBA.
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