Chicago Cubs: 5 Fresh Trade Ideas to Finally Look Like Champs Again
After spending months waiting for the Chicago Cubs to turn the corner, it's time to wonder whether they will reach a higher gear this season.
When their young roster finally brought a championship to Wrigley Field, the conversation turned to their dynasty destiny. Anything can happen in MLB's unpredictable postseason, but getting there was as inevitable as another interpretation of Spider-Man. And not even Veep's Jonah Ryan could hit his head on the franchise's sky-high ceiling.
The midway mark nears, and last year's juggernaut has yet to resurface. A dominant lineup and rotation is suddenly just OK. As of Wednesday, they trail the supposedly rebuilding Milwaukee Brewers by a game at 40-39.
If Jason Heyward and Ben Zobrist return healthy and validate lineup spots, Ian Happ's emergence means they're unlikely to seek a big bat on the trade market. That could change if Kris Bryant needs to miss extended time after injuring his ankle Wednesday night. Yet they need at least one more starting pitcher—preferably one who can stick around beyond 2017—with or without an able Kyle Hendricks.
Last year, president Theo Epstein ransacked the farm system to obtain Aroldis Chapman. When the closer left during the offseason, he flipped Jorge Soler for Wade Davis. Let's lay the blueprint for how he can respond to this season's middling start with five trade scenarios.
Detroit Tigers
1 of 5
To Chicago Cubs: C/1B Alex Avila
To Tigers: RHPs Trevor Clifton and Pierce Johnson
The Cubs suddenly have a backup catcher vacancy after designating Miguel Montero for assignment. Despite his struggles combating the run game, his .805 OPS was far better than most teams receive from the spot.
No contender will make a big fuss about landing a second-string catcher. Willson Contreras is just fine handling the everyday role, but the Cubs could pursue Alex Avila if seeking offensive insurance.
Fox Sports' Jon Morosi floated the possibility, noting the veteran's success throwing out runners this season. More importantly, his .428 weighted on-base average comfortably leads all catchers. His next home run will set a new career high, and his outlandish 57.0 hard-hit percentage supports the offensive breakthrough.
Like most of the American League, the 35-43 Detroit Tigers still have a puncher's chance of hanging around the playoff picture. Yet general manager Al Avila should sell if they hold the AL's third-worst record near the deadline. His son, a 30-year-old catcher having the season of a lifetime during a walk year, is a perfect trade candidate.
Avila clobbers righties, and Contreras does his best hitting against southpaws. Chicago could form a super platoon or even give the young catcher some outfield reps to ride Avila's rollicking bat. It's worth exploring if the price is right.
The deserving All-Star should require at least one notable prospect, especially with his dad at the negotiating table. After focusing heavily on pitching during this year's draft, the Cubs can exchange Trevor Clifton, the organization's sixth-best prospect, according to MLB.com. Although the 22-year-old righty is posting an average 3.69 ERA in Double-A, he has bulked up in the minors while harnessing a hammering curveball.
They could throw in another power righty in Pierce Johnson, a 26-year-old who could find his footing in the bullpen. Adding Avila isn't necessary, but the opportunity cost likely won't offset his torrid production.
Kansas City Royals
2 of 5
To Cubs: SP Jason Vargas
To Royals: 3B/1B Jeimer Candelario and RHP Thomas Hatch
Let's hope everyone waiting for Jason Vargas to regress at least brought a book to pass the time.
Three months and 15 starts into 2017, the Kansas City Royals southpaw boasts an American League-best 2.29 ERA. The foundation began to decay in May, with 13 walks and 12 runs relinquished, but he bounced back to issue just five free passes and eight runs in June.
The 34-year-old won't sustain a Cy Young Award campaign, but his harshest skeptics can't question his usefulness in a contender's rotation. Vargas would round out Chicago's unit, and the Cubs defense could assist his continued success.
While the Royals have dwindled their American League Central deficit to 3.5 games behind the Cleveland Indians, a minus-39 run differential doesn't support their 38-39 record. Vargas is also one of many significant contributors on an expiring contract, and Kansas City doesn't have the means to keep them.
Restocking the farm system would be the prudent decision. If the Royals choose the wise path, the Cubs could offer a strong package of young talent led by Jeimer Candelario, a powerful corner infielder who would ease the blow of losing pending free agents Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas.
If Kansas City doesn't have the patience for a complete teardown, the 23-year-old Candelario would appeal to the 2015 champions as a major league ready bat who can join fellow Cubs farmhand Jorge Soler in the 2018 lineup.
Thomas Hatch isn't as close to the big leagues, but the 22-year-old pitcher has submitted 73 strikeouts in 71 High-A innings. The 2016 third-round pick has the look of a sturdy mid-rotation starter.
While waiting for Vargas to hit a rough patch could lessen the asking price, a strong July could force Epstein to pay even more.
Miami Marlins
3 of 5
To Cubs: SP Dan Straily and C A.J. Ellis
To Marlins: RHPs Dylan Cease and Duane Underwood, SS Aramis Ademan
In January, the Cincinnati Reds traded Dan Straily to the Miami Marlins for three prospects (pitchers Luis Castillo and Austin Brice and outfielder Isaiah White). It was a far greater return than the Houston Astros received when they sent him to the San Diego Padres for backup catcher Erik Kratz in March 2016.
Both pale in comparison to the package Miami could now net.
Straily is enjoying a breakout season, with a 3.44 ERA and 90 strikeouts in 89 innings. The Marlins hold all the negotiating power for the 28-year-old righty, who will enter arbitration this offseason.
Jake Arrieta can walk after this winter, and the 38-year-old John Lackey probably just allowed another home run. The Cubs may need a starter for 2018 even more than they do right now. Straily is young, cheap and effective, and thus won't be cheap if the Marlins shop their de facto ace.
He could also be attainable without offering mega prospect Eloy Jimenez, which might be tougher for Chicago to pull off when chasing Sonny Gray and Jose Quintana. They will instead, however, part ways with top pitching prospect Dylan Cease.
MLB.com's No. 64 prospect has tallied 65 strikeouts in 42.1 Single-A innings with a heater that occasionally touches triple digits. Opponents are hitting .195 against the 21-year-old righty, who also wields a thunderous curveball.
Since Cease has a higher ceiling than Straily, Miami won't snag another top-flight prospect. They could instead gamble on Duane Underwood Jr., whose tumbling stock could spur a transition to the bullpen. After trading Adeiny Hechavarria to the Tampa Bay Rays, they also nab shortstop Aramis Ademan, an 18-year-old with an advanced hit tool and plate presence for his age.
Rather than paying for Avila, the Cubs pick up A.J. Ellis as a defensive-minded reserve who could manage the pitching staff and replace David Ross as the young clubhouse's sage mentor.
Oakland Athletics
4 of 5
To Cubs: SP Sonny Gray
To Athletics: OF Kyle Schwarber and RHP Thomas Hatch
According to Yahoo Sports' Jeff Passan, the Cubs join the New York Yankees, Houston Astros and Boston Red Sox in pursuit of Sonny Gray. The Yankees and Astros especially can raid a deep reserve of minor league talent to land the Oakland Athletics starter.
Epstein at least needs to try to trade with the Athletics, who sent them Addison Russell in an uncharacteristic win-now deal three years ago. While he's not all the way back from the ace who accrued a 2.88 ERA from 2013 to 2015, Gray has shown enough life to earn everyone's attention before the trade deadline. After years of outperforming his peripherals, he has a 3.60 fielding independent pitching (FIP) behind a 4.45 ERA.
While Epstein (and Cubs fans) are probably hesitant to give up on Kyle Schwarber, consider this a compromise to keep Jimenez. If any team would buy the struggling slugger at near market value, it's Oakland. A big bat who gets on base and pummels the ball, he's a Moneyball prototype in an era when that skill set is no longer scarce or undervalued.
The AL squad will have the designated-hitter slot as a fallback plan, but it may be more willing than others to see whether he can stick at first base or a corner-infield spot.
A .193 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) partially explains Schwarber's putrid .171 batting average, so the Cubs could probably still trade him without selling low. Even if he were fulfilling expectations in the middle of their lineup, it still would make sense for a National League squad to trade a glorified DH for a cost-controlled starting pitcher.
Schwarber alone shouldn't get the job done. A's general manager David Forst needs some young pitching back, and Hatch fits the bill as a projectable prospect.
Trading Gray with two more seasons of arbitration eligibility only makes sense if receiving a proper return. A bidding war may force the winner to overpay, but Schwarber is a bona fide major leaguer with a longer countdown to free agency. The change of scenery would help both players flourish.
Chicago White Sox
5 of 5
To Cubs: SP Jose Quintana
To White Sox: OF Eloy Jimenez
The same teams gunning for Gray will also likely seek Jose Quintana. Since 2013, he's seventh among all starters in FanGraphs' WAR in front of Madison Bumgarner, Zack Greinke and Stephen Strasburg. Including club options any team would exercise, barring a severe injury, he's on the books for an extremely affordable $29.35 million over the next three seasons.
So he won't be cheap.
Ian Happ would have made sense during offseason negotiations, but he has made himself too indelible to the Cubs' 2017 squad. Moving Javier Baez still doesn't seem feasible, and Schwarber isn't a good fit for their crosstown rivals.
When drafted in the opening round last year, Zack Collins drew many Schwarber comparisons as a left-handed catcher with power and plate discipline in spades presented alongside concerns of handling the position. He has yet to merit the juxtaposition, but he may one day assume the designated-hitter slot. Unless it's still occupied by Matt Davidson, a 26-year-old who has already belted 17 home runs this season.
Epstein could offer a shopping cart full of other prospects. Or he could deal the best one.
Jimenez has superstar potential. MLB.com referenced Giancarlo Stanton when examining its No. 8 prospect's power potential. The only thing worse than trading a future star would be watching that traded star blossom on another team in the same city.
But Quintana is an ace. Whether the casual fan recognizes him as much, the White Sox and suitors will view him as a highly valuable commodity despite his 4.37 ERA. That's especially the case after he rebounded with a 1.78 ERA in June.
This laptop GM isn't necessarily recommending the Cubs trade Jimenez for Quintana. Yet it would help them to achieve their short-term goals, and their lineup would remain loaded with young, versatile position players. Happ's huge start in the infield may make the loss palatable.
The White Sox will need a convincing reason to trade him in July. Giving them a potential middle-of-the-order mainstay qualifies.
Note: All advanced stats courtesy of FanGraphs. Salary info obtained from Cot's Baseball Contracts.
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