Everything You Need to Know About Chicago Bulls' 2017 NBA Draft
The Chicago Bulls' 2016-17 NBA season was best described as "ordinary." They were entirely unentertaining.
They had neither the talent to contend for a title nor the up-and-coming player who could excite fans about the future.
While Jimmy Butler had his best season yet, accentuated by his first-time status as an All-NBA player and All-Star starter, there just wasn't much to cheer for.
Other than that, though, it was a dull season for the Chicago faithful, as the Bovines finished No. 8. After taking a 2-0 series lead over the Boston Celtics, starting point guard Rajon Rondo got injured, and the Celtics won the next four games.
Now the Bulls are a remarkably average team with a remarkably average draft pick. Can they use the latter to shake up the former?
ESPN's Marc Stein reported that Butler could be involved in a draft-day trade, but until it's official, we have to assume that the front office will be a bland as ever.
Let's review the Bulls' recent draft history, who they might take and who they probably will pick.
The Recent History
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Along with the average team and average pick, the Bulls have a recent history that's pretty average at best.
Butler was their last home run, but that was under former director of college scouting Matt Lloyd, who had a great history. He tabbed guys such as Joakim Noah, Derrick Rose, Taj Gibson, James Johnson (who finally panned out this year) and Butler.
Stephen Noh (now with The Athletic), writing as The Hungarian Jordan for BlogaBull, described the history in 2015 if you would like a good read on the subject.
Since Lloyd departed, here's what the Bulls have done in the draft, where they took each player and where he is ranked in his draft class in career win shares:
Player | Season | Drafted | Rank in Win Shares | Improvement |
Marquis Teague | 2012 | 29 | 54 | -25 |
Tony Snell | 2013 | 20 | 18 | 2 |
Erik Murphy | 2013 | 49 | 46 | 3 |
Doug McDermott | 2014 | 11 | 15 | -4 |
Cameron Bairstow | 2014 | 49 | 47 | 2 |
Bobby Portis | 2015 | 22 | 12 | 10 |
Denzel Valentine | 2016 | 14 | 18 | -4 |
Overall, the Bulls haven't been so much as bad in the draft as—you guessed it—average.
Maybe this year they can buck the trend?
Biggest Needs
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The Bulls' needs this year are what they seem to be every year: shooting, youth and athleticism.
As far as position goes, they have needs just about everywhere. The only place they're set for the foreseeable future is with Butler, who can play the 2 or 3. Ergo, the best player available is sound decision-making here.
That quagmire of futility underscores their biggest need of all—a reality check.
Any chance of winning big now is essentially impossible. The gap between the Bulls and the Celtics is large enough, but it's nothing compared to the gulf between them and the Cavaliers.
There's no "magic pick" that is going to vault the Bulls into contention for anything. It seems what they really need is a little "tortoise" mentality of the old "slow and steady wins the race" variety.
Brian Hamilton wrote for Seth's Draft House:
"The 41–41 record last season, that 16th pick it elicited…it's almost too on the nose, one signpost after another as the Bulls circle basketball purgatory, a journey to nowhere indeed. We don't know what name will follow "the Chicago Bulls select" on June 22. We do have a pretty good idea it won't matter."
The Bulls need to maximize the upside of this pick, not minimize the downside. Their recent history of going with "safe picks" hasn't panned out well anyway. So they might as well go with someone for the highest ceiling and think more freshman than senior.
On the court, the Bulls need to get a young player with dynamic potential; off it, their need is enough self-awareness from the front office of vice president of basketball operations John Paxson and general manager Gar Forman to recognize the needs on it.
The Dream Prospects
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Since the draft is so uncertain, I looked at mocks from DraftExpress.com, Chad Ford at ESPN.com and Bleacher Report's Chris Roling.
Vijay Vemu at Blogabull.com has a handy "workout tracker" detailing which draft hopefuls have worked out for Bulls. The list is entirely too long to put here, but if you want a thorough assessment of everyone, it's a good place to start.
Looking through all of this, I've separated my favorites into two groups: dreams and probables.
The "dreams" are in the hope that someone falls. A perfect mock is harder to come by than the perfect NCAA bracket. Everything gets so screwed up by the fifth pick that everything else after that is a crapshoot anyway.
"Dreams" are players who could fall out of the lottery into the middle of the draft and who the Bulls should snatch up in a heartbeat if they're available.
I have a separate slide for the "realistic" choices who should be around (and if they're not, it's probably because one of the "dream" picks fell).
Frank Ntilikina, PG, France
Ford has Frank Ntilikina going No. 8 to the Knicks, but DraftExpress.com has him dropping all the way to 14th. So why not dream?
If Ntilikina's there, the Bulls would be foolish to pass on the 18-year-old from France. He's a long-term point guard who is smart, plays both sides of the court and is a pure passer. He also has leadership qualities and championship mettle having played on high-level teams in big-time tournaments.
Landing Ntilikina is unlikely, but considering he's the ideal prospect for Chicago, dreaming a bit doesn't hurt.
Zach Collins, C, Gonzaga
B/R's Dan Favale compares Collins to Myles Turner:
"Collins has more hop and walls off the rim better than any of the many, many stretch bigs in this draft class. He can be foul-prone—6.2 personals per 40 minutes—but he has the slanted strides to rotate from ball-handlers to cutting bigs and can end drives to the basket from behind the play."
A lot of the talk about head coach Fred Hoiberg's offense centers around the three-point shooting, but all of that is to set up rolling and cutting rim-runners.
Collins would be a great fit, but he's probably one in the early teens. He's another "if by some miracle he falls…" selection.
Luke Kennard, SG, Duke
Luke Kennard is the only player on the "dream" list who has actually worked out for the Bulls. Jonathan Givony and Mike Schmitz broke him down for Draft Express.
What Kennard lacks in measurables he makes up for with tremendous skill, savvy and productivity.
The 21-year-old played the game at a different speed to almost anyone at the college level this season, using polished footwork, body control and feel to get to different spots on the floor and compensate for his decent tools.
He came up big time after time in clutch moments in some of the most important games he competed in, showing a level of swagger and confidence that will have grown on NBA decision-makers over time.
The Realistic Prospects
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Justin Jackson, SF, North Carolina
Justin Jackson, who many have projected to go to the Bulls, has a familiar refrain to him, as noted by Michael Whitlow of PippenAintEasy.com:
As many have documented already, Jackson fits the mold of the "experienced and successful college player" the Bulls have looked to draft in recent years with guys such as Doug McDermott, Bobby Portis and Denzel Valentine.
Jackson is a solid, two-way player with good instincts. But he has all the feel of another guy who stuck around in college because he didn't have the ceiling to come out earlier.
John Collins, PF, Wake Forrest
John Collins is no relation to Zach, but he would be a good fit for the same reasons as his namesake.
Daniel O'Brien of FanRagSports.com has him going to Chicago.
"He's a top-rung athlete who erupted for 19.2 points and 9.8 points in just 26.6 minutes per game last season. Most of Collins' NBA production will come from offensive boards, pick-and-rolls and catch-and-finish opportunities. He has developed solid footwork and body control around the rim, and he also owns a good-looking mid-range jumper."
As an athletic big with good size and solid two-way capabilities (three-point shooting aside), Collins would offer Chicago more upside than Portis. He's projected to go in the mid-first round of most mocks, and the Bulls could realistically be the ones to snatch him up.
Jarrett Allen, C, Texas
Chicago could really use help defending the rim. Jarrett Allen, at 6'10" with a 7'5" wingspan, not only helps in that category but is versatile enough to get up and down the court to defend in transition.
Although Allen has the ability to roll to the basket, his offensive game needs a lot of polish. That said, he believes he could get the job done on that end, according to K.C. Johson of the Chicago Tribune:
"I think I showed them that my shot has come a long way since the season. My free throws have improved. I think my athletic ability translates to the next level, my ability to go get rebounds, block shots and guard guards. I need to get stronger and improve my offensive game."
Prediction: Justin Jackson
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This feels like such a certainty that we should dub Jackson "the InevitaBull."
Jackson is the perfect "GarPax" pick. K.C. Johnson of the Chicago Tribune noted that even the 22-year-old has that sense:
"Jackson, currently listed as the Bulls' pick in Draft Express' latest mock draft, shot 36.8 percent from the shorter 3-point line while averaging 18.4 points for the Tar Heels. He fits the preferred draft profile of this management team as a three-year player from a blue-chip program.
"'I've definitely seen that trend,' Jackson said. 'I didn't have a conversation with them about it. But I'd love to play for Chicago. The organization is built on greatness.'"
Bulls fans will likely groan, but Jay Boozell from FanRag Sports suggested Jackson should not be written off too quickly:
"And if Chicago takes Jackson, expect Bulls fans to make him out to be the next McDermott or Valentine.
"And that wouldn't be fair to Jackson. Though he might seem to fall in line with the Bulls' head-scratching recent draft history, Jackson doesn't have much in common with McDermott or Valentine other than being a high-profile college player who wasn't a one-and-done."
The main reason for that is simple. Where Jackson separates himself is he's more of a conventional three-and-D player in the mold of Trevor Ariza.
He would actually fit. And his three-point shooting has made real improvement, per Boozell:
"Jackson made the most threes of any projected draft pick, and the degree of difficulty on those looks was extremely high. This wasn't like Josh Jackson, who made 38 percent of his threes on less than half the attempts—the majority of which were wide open. Justin Jackson took tough shots and made a ton. If he were a standstill shooter, he probably would have made over 40 percent of his threes."
Last year, the Bulls were at their best offensively when Butler had shooters like Doug McDermott and Nikola Mirotic around him hitting threes, stretching the court and letting Butler use his complement of driving passing abilities.
The problem was that neither of those guys is a very good (or, in McDermott's case, even competent) defensive player.
In a perfect world, Jackson has a defined role: get stops and hit open shots. If he does that, he can be a legitimate starter in the NBA, a la Danny Green or Trevor Ariza. That would be enough to vindicate him. If you take all the history out of it, this could, ironically, be the right pick.
Still, you'll forgive Bulls fans if they hold off believing until they've seen it.
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