Ranking Top 2017 NBA Free-Agency Destinations
Predicting how things will shake out in NBA free agency requires more than a crystal ball and some loose tea leaves.
For teams, it's relationships with agents, personality profiles and larger blueprints for the future that frequently factor into decisions just as much as cap space and roster needs do.
For players, it's family, lifestyle considerations, friendships and off-court business opportunities that are among a host of considerations that can sway a choice, especially when the money is so carefully circumscribed according to the league's collective bargaining agreement.
Neither side of any transaction will have a complete sense of who's going where and why for some time—at least until the draft, and possibly well after the Association officially reopens for business July 1.
Rather than try to play matchmaker with the open market, let's sort through this summer's top 10 free-agent suitors, based on a sliding scale of cap flexibility and championship potential, be it immediately or down the line.
10. New York Knicks
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There's a lot about the New York Knicks these days that could turn off big-name free agents.
There's team president Phil Jackson's persistent public effort to push out All-Star Carmelo Anthony. You could point to Kristaps Porzingis' going MIA from exit meetings. Don't forget about head coach Jeff Hornacek's unwitting attachment to the triangle offense, not to mention owner James Dolan's confrontations with fans and former players alike.
Any one of those factors, let alone all in combination, might dissuade more than a few players who could otherwise be keen on a basketball residence at Madison Square Garden.
For a certain subsection of the market—namely guards who can shoot and forwards who can post up and pass out of double-teams—playing under the Zen Master's purview in the Big Apple could be the opportunity of a lifetime. That, among other reasons, is why J.J. Redick's name has come up in Knicks rumors of late.
So long as Porzingis is around and continues to develop, New York will have more than a snowball's chance in Hell's Kitchen of building a contender on the court. Whichever blue-chip prospect the Knicks add with their lottery pick in this year's draft should help to accelerate that process.
Until that time comes, whoever signs can enjoy the life of luxury that multimillionaires in their 20s and 30s can access so easily in New York City.
The Knicks don't have a clear path to max-level cap space, but they should have enough flexibility to overpay a role player or two, not including whatever return they do (or don't) get in an Anthony-centric trade.
9. Los Angeles Lakers
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It's tough to put the Los Angeles Lakers even this high on the list, let alone higher up, despite their glorious history and all the spoils available in the City of Angels.
At present, the Lakers, while stocked up on young talent, don't have an obvious budding star in their midst.
Their new front office, led by president of basketball operations Magic Johnson and general manager Rob Pelinka, has almost no track record of which to speak in their current jobs. The reshuffling of other departments within the organization, as detailed by Bleacher Report's Eric Pincus, could add to the top-down uncertainty seen by prospective free agents.
Still, as Pincus previously put it, "the family drama between co-owners Jeanie Buss and Jim Buss has been resolved, and that represents a significant step forward."
There could be another leap or two to come in the weeks ahead. If the Lakers can package the No. 2 pick and some of their prospects in a trade for, say, Indiana Pacers All-Star and Southern California native Paul George, the front office will add at least one massive feather to its own competence cap while giving the franchise a cornerstone around whom it can build.
Combine that with the ability to clear close to $30 million in cap space, and the Purple and Gold could have something substantial to pitch to prospective free agents in terms of their on-court product.
The city will always sell itself. It's no secret why so many NBA players flock to L.A. in the offseason, right Kendrick?
But having a bona fide star and a strong supporting cast in place could make the Lakers more than merely intriguing to the best players in basketball again.
8. Chicago Bulls
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Where most teams might find themselves at a crossroads, the Chicago Bulls are stuck at an eight-way intersection.
The Bulls could bring back an iteration of the same squad that went up 2-0 on the Boston Celtics in the first round...and cap themselves out in the process.
Dwyane Wade has a $23.8 million option at his disposal. Rajon Rondo will be at the Bulls' mercy, with his $13.4 million take for 2017-18 only partially guaranteed. Nikola Mirotic, Cristiano Felicio, Michael Carter-Williams and Joffrey Lauvergne are all due raises in restricted free agency.
Should Wade opt out and Chicago wipe away the other aforementioned players, the team could clear close to $70 million cap space—almost enough for two max contracts—with which to build around Jimmy Butler.
That is, if the Bulls want to do that. According to the Chicago Tribune's K.C. Johnson, team executive John Paxson didn't leap at the opportunity to proclaim Butler a tentpole for the franchise's future at exit meetings in early May.
If Chicago goes all-in on Butler, it could have the scratch and the singular talent to attract multiple top-flight sidekicks.
A return from Wade would still leave enough room for one max-level player. Perhaps he could put in a good word with his Banana Boat buddy Chris Paul to replace one of the "Three Alphas" (i.e. Rondo).
A turn away from Butler, on the other hand, wouldn't just be odd, since the Bulls would ostensibly be rebuilding to acquire the caliber of player they already have; it would also tank whatever chances they might otherwise have with free agents this summer.
7. Philadelphia 76ers
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You don't have to squint so hard anymore to see what the Philadelphia 76ers are up to.
Now nearly four years removed from former general manager Sam Hinkie's roster detonation at the 2013 draft, the Sixers are stacked with promising young players (Joel Embiid, Ben Simmons, Dario Saric, Robert Covington, Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot, Richaun Holmes), juicy picks—including the No. 3 selection in this year's draft—and enough cap space (as much as $75 million) to swallow another roster wholesale.
As a result, Philly could now appeal to more experienced players who are eager to lead a young team through the ranks of the Eastern Conference and into title contention.
That's why the Philadelphia Inquirer's Keith Pompey threw his support behind the Sixers' pursuing North Philly native Kyle Lowry, as recent rumors have indicated:
"He'll provide instant credibility and will recruit other A-list free agents to the Sixers. Let's face it, the Sixers need a player of his stature to bring relevance. Although he might not be there for a title run, he could get them to the next level.
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Such is the risk of moving to the City of Brotherly Love. The Process has progressed apace, but it could still be years away from peaking.
It's a gamble for the ring-obsessed like Lowry. But he, like so many stars in the Eastern Conference, understands all too well what it means to compete within LeBron James' domain and how long it may be before he cedes his throne.
When that time comes, the Sixers could be poised to pounce, no matter if they sign a big-time free agent this summer who's well over the hill by then.
6. Denver Nuggets
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Don't sleep on the Denver Nuggets as a destination for players among the upper crust of 2017 free agency.
Last summer, they jumped into the Dwyane Wade sweepstakes, in part because they had the cap space to do it but also to leave a strong impression with one of the NBA's most respected veterans. That presentation could pay dividends this summer with plenty of free agents potentially in their range and even more to sell.
The Nuggets will have max-level cap room once Danilo Gallinari (presumably) opts out of his contract. With that kind of flexibility, Denver could chase after any of this year's available point guards—from Chris Paul and Kyle Lowry to George Hill, Jrue Holiday and on down the line—should their patience run thin with former lottery pick Emmanuel Mudiay.
The team's pitch to those stars has the potential to exceed the one they made to Wade in 2016. Now, the Nuggets can pump up Nikola Jokic as a franchise cornerstone with a season of proof, point to Jamal Murray and Gary Harris as pivotal parts of their perimeter rotation, and assure that Wilson Chandler and Will Barton can pick up the scoring slack if Gallinari goes elsewhere.
If general manager Tim Connelly had his druthers, he would bring back Gallo, re-sign Mason Plumlee in restricted free agency and extend Harris, per Chris Dempsey of Altitude Sports.
Should he succeed, the Nuggets won't have any money left over to throw at mid-tier role players, let alone names that could occupy a marquee in the Mile High City.
5. Los Angeles Clippers
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The Los Angeles Clippers may be more snakebitten than Lemony Snicket, especially when it comes to postseason play, but there's no denying how far this franchise—once the laughingstock of North American professional sports—has come since the last lockout.
They're one of two teams, along with the San Antonio Spurs, to have won at least 50 games per season over the past five.
Blake Griffin's rise to rookie stardom got the ball rolling in the right direction. Chris Paul's arrival gave it a serious push. Doc Rivers has since seized that momentum, with owner Steve Ballmer's blessing, to bring all aspects of the organization—including the establishment of a D-League team in Ontario, California, this fall—up to the modern industry standard.
"We made that commitment to no longer be what that team was years ago," Rivers said at his end-of-season press conference.
His updating of L.A.'s basketball operations could help to keep Griffin and Paul in town for the foreseeable future.
If one leaves, the Clippers will still have a dynamic duo of some sort to draw role players into their orbit. If both go, they'll have the organizational culture and infrastructure, along with sufficient cap space, to pitch to prospective free agents, if not the actual talent to attract newcomers.
For now, all that legwork is most important insofar as the weight it carries with Griffin, Paul and the rest of L.A.'s prospective free agents.
At the very least—and most importantly—the Clippers, once notorious for the frequency with which their own players walked away, have made themselves a viable place for their stars to stay.
4. Miami Heat
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How many franchises would (or could) have so deftly handled the challenges recently faced by the Miami Heat and recounted by The Ringer's Bill Simmons?
"LeBron's 2014 betrayal and Chris Bosh's health issues derail just about any other franchise, but the Heat (smartly) avoided paying Dwyane Wade for past performance, renovated Waiters Island, rejuvenated [Goran] Dragic's career, struck oil with Hassan Whiteside, turned Skinny James Johnson into one of the 12 greatest players of all time (give or take 500), made an emotional run at a playoff spot (I still think they could have beaten the Celtics or come close), and left themselves with a lottery pick and enough cap space for marquee free agents in 2017–18."
Much of that cap space—potentially upward of $60 million—comes courtesy of Bosh's contract.
According to the Miami Herald's Barry Jackson, if the Heat can't trade him before July, the team will apply to have the $76 million remaining on his contract removed from its cap sheet. That ruling would hinge on the opinion of a doctor, chosen by the league and the players' union, after considering the severity and potential risk posed by Bosh's recurring blood clots.
Wipe away the last remains of Miami's former Big 3, and the Heat will be left with a gaping hole at power forward next to the pick-and-roll combo of Dragic and Whiteside.
Throw in the likes of Tyler Johnson, Josh Richardson, Justise Winslow and Rodney McGruder—all promising perimeter players in one way or another—and you would have the makings of another potential contender rising out of South Florida in a flash.
That is, assuming Pat Riley can convince another big name or two to take his bait. Between Miami's base of talent, the lifestyle afforded to the town's rich and famous, and Florida's lack of state income tax, the Heat president shouldn't have to twist anyone's arm too hard to accept his offer.
3. San Antonio Spurs
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The San Antonio Spurs have pretty much everything a prospective ring-chaser could ask for.
A tradition of championship contention? Check.
A rock-solid corporate culture? Check.
An organization that lives on basketball's cutting edge? Check.
An all-time basketball puppeteer in Gregg Popovich? Check.
A superstar (Kawhi Leonard) with a gifted sidekick (LaMarcus Aldridge) and a stacked supporting cast? Check, check and check.
The Spurs also have a former Finals MVP-sized hole to fill at point guard now that Tony Parker, on the cusp of his 35th birthday, is recovering from a ruptured tendon in his left quadriceps.
In pure basketball terms, San Antonio would be an ideal landing spot for an established floor general like Chris Paul or Kyle Lowry. Fitting either into the team's cap sheet, though, could be a challenge.
Even if Pau Gasol, Dewayne Dedmon and David Lee decline their player options and the team passes on bringing back Jonathon Simmons and Bryn Forbes, the Spurs won't have enough spare cash to afford a full max without dumping some other salary.
Not that such a crunch would preclude San Antonio from adding an impact player, even at the highest possible number.
If a star says he wants to play in the Alamo City, you can bet Popovich and general manager R.C. Buford will move heaven, earth and whichever contracts necessary—using draft picks and young players as sweeteners if they must—to afford the requisite red carpet.
2. Boston Celtics
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If beauty is in the eye of the beholder, the Boston Celtics must look good to free agents of every age and outlook.
Seasoned veterans seeking immediate title contention will salivate over the play of 28-year-old Isaiah Thomas and 30-year-old Al Horford in leading the C's to the East's No. 1 seed and a spot in the conference finals.
Younger bucks will appreciate all the up-and-comers—from Avery Bradley and Marcus Smart to Jae Crowder, Terry Rozier and rookie Jaylen Brown—along with whoever comes from this year's No. 1 pick and next year's selection from the Brooklyn Nets...not to mention two promising players (Guerschon Yabusele, Ante Zizic) they've stashed overseas.
Those in between (i.e. Gordon Hayward, Blake Griffin) can only imagine what other top-shelf talent general manager Danny Ainge could bring in by sending out some combination of promising prospects, cap-friendly contracts and potent draft picks.
Boston won't need to sacrifice any of its incumbent assets to afford a game-changing addition. The C's can clear enough room to afford a star player who's not yet eligible for the absolute max just by cutting Tyler Zeller's non-guaranteed $8 million for 2017-18.
If Boston plays its cards right, it could essentially win forever, whatever that means in today's NBA. With Trader Danny at the controls, the odds that the C's put those pieces together in a championship-caliber arrangement seem high—and should catch the eye of anyone aiming to contend in the league's weaker bracket.
1. Golden State Warriors
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Technically, the Golden State Warriors will be major players in this year's game of free-agent musical chairs.
They will head into the summer with two All-Stars (Klay Thompson, Draymond Green) and three youngsters (Kevon Looney, Damian Jones, Patrick McCaw) under contract for next season and upward of $60 million in cap space.
The way the Warriors have been on the come-up in recent years, with two trips to the Finals just behind them and a move to a new building in San Francisco ahead, who wouldn't want to play for Golden State?
Chances are, the only big names who will hear that full pitch are ones still wearing Warriors jerseys in this year's playoffs.
According to the San Jose Mercury News' Tim Kawakami, the Warriors brass might not even have to waste that much breath to bring back their top free agents:
"Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, Andre Iguodala and Klay Thompson journeyed to Kevin Durant's Hamptons free-agent hideout as personal representatives of the Warriors' plan for all seasons—or at least for four or five potentially triumphant seasons, starting with this one.
"So it's no surprise that the Warriors' three highest-profile pending 2017 free agents—Curry, Iguodala and Durant (who signed a two-year deal with the Warriors last July with an opt-out this July)—all recently suggested to me that they plan to re-sign with the franchise this July."
And why wouldn't that be the case? By then, this cast could be coming off one of the more dominant championship runs in NBA history, on the heels of a 67-win regular season, with nothing but smooth sailing ahead as the franchise eyes a move from Oakland to San Francisco.
If you look at this list from a more traditional standpoint, Golden State doesn't belong since its only real foray into free agency figures to focus on minimum-salary types to fill out the roster (not to mention its own stars).
But by the letter of the law, the Warriors are right up there when measured according to the money they'll have to burn and the opportunity they'll have to win.
All stats via NBA.com and Basketball Reference unless otherwise noted. All quotes obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted.
Josh Martin covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter, Instagram and Facebook and listen to his Hollywood Hoops podcast with B/R Lakers lead writer Eric Pincus.
