Bleacher Report Staff NBA Playoff Predictions
This is why the NBA plays the regular-season games.
So that Bleacher Report's merry band of round-ball soothsayers have an adequate sample off which to base playoff predictions.
Which team will take home the championship? Who will be the NBA Finals MVP? Is Russell Westbrook's triple-double onslaught playoff-proof? What up-and-comer will be an indelible household name by postseason's end?
All this, and more, will be answered in our primer for this spring's big dance—complete and total accuracy guaranteed.*
*Guarantee not valid in Alaska, Hawaii, the contiguous United States, the rest of the universe, alternate realities or parallel dimensions.
The Rockets-Thunder Series Will Go the Distance
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This isn't as much of a prediction as a wish. What other first-round matchup holds as much potential drama as a series pitting dual MVP candidates and former teammates, James Harden and Russell Westbrook, against one another?
We are going to look back at those old Thunder teams with more sorrow as time wears on. They featured three MVP-caliber players and unraveled before claiming a title. But it’s been enjoyable watching Westbrook, Harden and Kevin Durant in their individual pursuits, and we can hopefully strap in for a first-round classic with this matchup.
Rudy Gobert's Superstar Stock Will Settle into a Living Room Near You
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There are three kinds of people in this world: Folks who already consider Rudy Gobert a star; those who don't think he's there yet; and pessimists who feel as if he'll never be more than a defensive specialist.
For anyone already aboard Gobert's hype train, you're free to bounce. Or you can stay for fun.
Everyone else, pay attention. You need the crash course in All-Star criteria that Gobert is about to spend the next five to 13 games teaching.
There is so much more to Gobzilla than his defense. To be certain: He's still a black hole on the less glamorous end. He challenges more shots at the rim than everyone, and swallows them as well as anyone. He will place no lower than second on 90 percent of Defensive Player of the Year ballots.
But the 7'1" skyscraper has taken his game to a new level by expanding his offensive horizons. There might be—might be—one or two more effective screeners alive. (We see you, Cody Zeller.) And Gobert is a devastating finisher when rolling or exploding off those picks. He will never be used as a high-volume option, but his passing, scoring and general decision-making inside the post have improved.
Gobert is the Jazz's most valuable player—a more telling barometer for their success than either Gordon Hayward or pre-March George Hill. His one-way, non-refundable march into the national conscience begins now.
Russell Westbrook Will Average a Triple-Double
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No matter how you look at it, smart money—not that we're encouraging gambling—should be on Russell Westbrook continuing his triple-double stylings during a first-round matchup with the Houston Rockets that will likely result in a (relatively) quick playoff exit for the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Westbrook has traditionally played more minutes in the postseason than he does during the first 82 games, and his career averages improved by 3.0 points and 0.6 rebounds heading into this campaign. Shorter rotations should counteract any change in pace, and his physicality makes him nearly impervious to restrained whistles.
Plus, you can expect a bit of extra motivation after the first four tilts against his MVP rival resulted in "only" 36.3 points, 9.0 rebounds and 9.3 assists per game, as well just a pair of regular-season trip-dubs.
This is the season of statistical achievements, and Westbrook shouldn't/can't/won't stop now.
Draymond Green Will Be NBA Playoffs' Most Dominant Defensive Player
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With Kevin Durant and Steph Curry back in the fold, those oh-so-vital last-second shots in the playoffs are covered for the Warriors. They know who to turn to for last-second stops as well, but there’s no division of labor here: Whether it’s Russ Westbrook, Kawhi Leonard, James Harden or Damian Lillard, Draymond Green will get the assignment.
There’s no reason to believe he won’t be as effective in that role in the postseason as he was during the regular season—helping the Warriors lead in just about every defensive statistical category—especially now with KD’s shot-blocking presence back at his side.
Manu Ginobili Will Play Last Game with the Spurs
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Manu Ginobili said it was easier to come back this year than it was when he mulled retirement following the 2014-15 season, and it's possible the certainty of Kawhi Leonard's superstardom makes this summer's call the easiest yet.
Because if you're considering an age-40 season, you're going to want assuredness of meaningful games. Leonard's ascent means San Antonio will be top-tier competitive for the foreseeable future.
At the same time: 40.
Ginobili was still a useful contributor who played meaningful minutes on the league's best bench, but 2016-17 was also his least productive season. He posted career lows in true shooting percentage and points per game.
To be clear: I want nothing more than another Ginobili season. And then another. And another. And more until the sun burns out and the galaxy succumbs to heat death. I want the last act of life in the universe to be a right-to-left Eurostep capped with a high-arcing finger roll.
But all good things come to an end.
Kevin Durant Will Cede Some of the Spotlight
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When healthy, Durant has been a dominant force for the Warriors. But with Golden State fresh off a 14-game winning streak—mostly done while the former MVP rehabbing from a sprained knee ligament—head coach Steve Kerr can't feel inclined to upset his team's offensive chemistry too much as the playoffs beckon.
Good thing Durant has years of experience adapting to ball-dominant point guards. By working off-ball to set up more opportunities for Stephen Curry—while still exploiting defensive mismatches and clear-outs when the play does call for him—Durant may appear to step back a bit in his role, but it'll be to his (and the Warriors') benefit.
Coach Pop Will Tip the Balance of an Entire Series
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Having Gregg Popovich, the NBA's most experienced active coach, on their side will help the San Antonio Spurs in their opening series against the Memphis Grizzlies and David Fizdale, who's in his first year as a head coach at any level.
But the Spurs should have the goods to dispatch a patchwork Grizzlies squad in Round 1 without too much voodoo from their sideline enologist. Where Pop's magic touch could be crucial is in the Western Conference semifinals.
If the Oklahoma City Thunder spring an upset on the Houston Rockets, the Spurs may need Popovich to pull every trick out of his sleeve to subdue a Russell Westbrook-led team that, even without Kevin Durant, still has much of the same length and athleticism that gave San Antonio fits during last year's playoffs.
And if James Harden's Rockets prevail in a seven-game MVP debate...well, peep Pop's record against Mike D'Antoni's Seven Seconds or Less Phoenix Suns (3-0 in playoff series) and imagine what he might do against Pringles in Space City.
Stephen Curry Will Win NBA Finals MVP
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Stephen Curry made a clear point to assert himself with both force and flair in the final games before Kevin Durant returned from his knee injury, and that is the momentum Curry expects to carry into the playoffs. He has made sure to be fresher mentally and physically for this playoff run, which sets him up perfectly for the coming weeks.
What allows him to knock it out of the park this postseason will be how much less defensive attention he'll get with Durant lurking nearby. There will be no happy-to-be-there sentiment from Curry this time after the devastation of last year. His whole mandate for this season was to be at his best this time at the end.
LeBron James Becomes All-Time Playoff Scoring Leader
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Only Michael Jordan, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and Kobe Bryant have scored more points in NBA postseason history than LeBron James. By July, that will have changed.
James sits just 415 points off Jordan's total of 5,987, a mark he should top around the conference finals. A career 28 points-per-night playoff scorer, that same pace would mean only 15 games separates James from history.
With the Cavaliers set up for another long playoff run, expect James to capture this esteemed scoring crown.
The Warriors Will Be Crowned Champions
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The Warriors were my pick in October, and they're an even more obvious choice now.
Kevin Durant has blended in seamlessly. Concerns about chemistry, or a lack of depth, or size, or defense, never materialized. The Warriors posted the NBA's top offensive rating, the second-best defensive rating and were on a 69-win pace before Durant injured his knee. They ripped off 14 straight wins without him. Their only concern was whether Durant would be himself when he returned, and he's looked fine.
The Spurs don't have the firepower to beat them, and the Rockets don't have the defense to contain them. The Cavaliers are a mess heading into the postseason. The stage is set for the Warriors to win their second title in three years.
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