How New York Knicks Should Address Each Area of Need at the NBA Trade Deadline
The New York Knicks have the NBA's 11th-highest payroll and ninth-lowest net efficiency rating.
That should make them an active participant of the 2016-17 trade season, though it's tough to tell which role they'll play at the deadline.
If they're buying, their wish list will be extensive. Most of their needs revolve around their 25th-ranked defense, but they'd take better ball-movers and steady scorers if they could find them.
If New York sells, it could be one of the few clubs—if not the only one—offering a plug-and-play All-Star. If the front office has elevated Kristaps Porzingis atop the internal pecking order, it must consider demolishing today's core for better assets tomorrow, and that means moving Carmelo Anthony.
Only the Knicks know where they'll turn, so we've provided blueprints for both contingencies. With the Feb. 23 deadline looming just over the horizon, here's how the Knicks can work either a quick reshuffle or a long-term rebuild.
Adding Interior Offense
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Not to get all geometrical here, but New York's triangle offense has yet to take shape since Phil Jackson grabbed the reins in 2014.
Longtime Jackson confidant and former assistant Charley Rosen thinks he knows why.
"They need a center with a big butt to hold space," Rosen told the New York Post's Marc Berman in March 2015. "They didn't have anybody like that. It takes away a major portion of what you can do with the triangle because then it really becomes just a perimeter offense."
Neither the time that's passed since Rosen's quote nor Porzingis' dramatic climb has solved the problem. The Knicks are only in the 41st percentile on post-up plays (0.86 points per possession), and Porzingis has fared even worse (0.82 points per possession, 37.1 percentile).
Assuming New York wants to fill this void—post offense isn't a priority for most modern teams—the trade market might have a few options.
Greg Monroe, who was courted by the Knicks in 2015 free agency, has fit better with the Milwaukee Bucks of late but remains on the trade block, an executive told Gery Woelfel of Woelfel's Press Box. And throwback bruiser Jahlil Okafor has bounced around the rumor mill since shortly after the Philadelphia 76ers made him the third selection of the 2015 draft.
Both the Bucks and Sixers need a backcourt boost, so the Knicks could build their offers around Brandon Jennings. The 27-year-old has averaged 13.0 points, 7.6 assists and 1.7 threes per 36 minutes but could be expendable if the Knicks want to give rookie Ron Baker extended run.
Finding a Floor General
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Between Jennings and Derrick Rose, the Knicks have more than $26.3 million tied up in their two-deep point guard rotation. That type of investment should provide a better return than this—43.2 percent combined shooting (30.8 percent outside) and a pedestrian 2.13 assists per turnover (would rank 43rd).
Rose is a scorer first, which is problematic when he's only average in the role (16.0 player efficiency rating) and his aggressiveness doesn't help the bottom line (13.8 field-goal attempts during wins, 17.3 in losses). Jennings' shot selection has kept his career field-goal percentage south of 40 (39.0), and he's been a traffic cone on defense (75th among 85 point guards in defensive real plus-minus, via ESPN.com).
The Knicks have combustible scorers at each forward spot, but no one is setting the table for them to feast. With Rose and Jennings both slated for free agency at season's end, this is the time to start examining other options.
Passing specialists Ricky Rubio and Elfrid Payton presumably wouldn't break the bank. The Minnesota Timberwolves drafted Rubio's replacement last summer (Kris Dunn, No. 5 pick), while the Orlando Magic have shuffled Payton in and out of their starting lineup. Rubio nearly matches the nightly assist output of Rose and Jennings (7.9 to their combined 9.4) and Payton outpaces them individually (5.8).
If New York wants a bigger fish, it could pursue Goran Dragic. The Miami Heat are reportedly listening to offers for "literally every player," according to ESPN's Zach Lowe (via CBSSports.com's Matt Moore), and the 30-year-old Dragic could immediately contribute on a win-now roster. If that's how the Knicks see themselves, they'll at least want to hear Miami's price.
Procuring a Paint Protector
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The New York Knicks have both a former Defensive Player of the Year anchoring the middle and a problem protecting the interior.
How can that be possible? Because this Joakim Noah is nothing like the award-winner from his past. This version—31 years old and ravaged by injury—is less an impediment than an invitation for opponents to attack. Noah is yielding an atrocious 55.9 percent shooting at the rim, the ninth-worst mark among high-volume bigs.
"He's not impacting the game, doesn't have the ability or energy to move laterally or go vertical," TNT's Brent Barry said, per Berman. "He's never been a good shot-blocker but a position defender and that's a huge damaging impact on the backline of a very porous defense."
One player won't fix New York's disastrous defense, but an intimidating presence near the rim could help hide weaknesses. The trade market just so happens to have a few of them available.
The most coveted option is Sixers center Nerlens Noel, who called Philadelphia's crowded frontcourt "silly" in September and said "it's just not going to work to anybody's advantage having that on the same team," per Keith Pompey of the Philadelphia Inquirer. Noel has softened his stance since, but he's still a former top-10 pick getting just 14.9 minutes per game in a contract year.
Then, there's Andrew Bogut, anchor of a championship defense just two seasons back. But now he's wasting away for the directionless Dallas Mavericks, and he understands as an impending free agent his time with the Mavs may not be long.
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Plugging the Leaky Wings
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New York's defensive woes aren't all tied to the interior. The Knicks can equally bleed from the perimeter, causing their maligned frontcourt to look even worse.
None of their rotation wings sport a defensive rating south of 105, and the two closest to that mark are part-time players—rookie Mindaugas Kuzminskas and journeyman Justin Holiday. Courtney Lee has the best defensive reputation of the perimeter starters, but opponents are shooting better against him than they do on average.
So, the need for wing-stoppers is great. Fortunately, the supply could be, too.
If New York swings for the fences, it could pursue five-time All-Defensive selection Tony Allen or former 'Bocker Wilson Chandler. The Memphis Grizzlies reportedly listened to overtures on the Grindfather in December, sources told Ronald Tillery of the Commercial Appeal. Chandler is one of several veterans that the Denver Nuggets have shopped, per ESPN.com's Marc Stein.
If the Knicks would accept a lower return for a discounted deal, the second-tier could be well stocked.
The Atlanta Hawks have fielded calls regarding Thabo Sefolosha, per Stein and Brian Windhorst. If the always-active Houston Rockets make a move, K.J. McDaniels is "the most likely" to go, Stein reports. And some Knicks executives have eyed Phoenix Suns swingman P.J. Tucker as a potential target, sources told ESPN.com's Ian Begley.
New York doesn't have the upside to part with a first-round pick, so it might have to opt for Plan B, but this weakness is great enough that a seemingly small investment might return a big profit.
(Near) Nuclear Rebuild
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With the right amount of soul-searching, the Knicks could easily convince themselves to hold a liquidation sale. They have the third-worst winning percentage since Dec. 13, which has shredded their nonsensical (and self-appointed) superteam label.
Why not approach the deadline as if everything but the unicorn must go?
The ball is in Carmelo Anthony's court. The 32-year-old All-Star has a no-trade clause in his contract, so he'd have to sign off on a ticket out of the Big Apple. But that might not be a deal breaker. Following Sunday's 116-101 loss to the Toronto Raptors, Anthony said if the Knicks no longer want him, "that's a conversation we should have," per Frank Isola of the New York Daily News.
If Anthony—the Knicks leader in points, shots and usage percentage—goes, who else could follow? Presumably, everyone but Porzingis would be expendable by that point.
If the Knicks can snag picks for Anthony, Rose, Jennings, Lee or Kyle O'Quinn or somehow free themselves from Noah's burdensome contract, those are all rebuilding avenues worth exploring.
"Whatever the Knicks do, they need to keep an eye on building a team around Kristaps Porzingis that's ready to compete once LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers and Stephen Curry and the Warriors start to slow down," Begley wrote. "That will be their best chance to end their 40-plus season title drought."
With Porzingis' star rising as Anthony's fades, the long game looks like the Knicks' optimal play. But patience has rarely been the organization's strong suit, so its deadline identity could be unknown until its first deal.
All statistics accurate through games played Sunday, Jan. 15, and used courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com, unless otherwise noted.
Zach Buckley covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter @ZachBuckleyNBA.
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