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Biggest Flight Risks In 2026 NBA Free Agency
NBA teams are busy preparing for the draft, free agency and trade season. The heavy lifting over the next few weeks will shape the 2026-27 campaign, as several familiar faces may find new homes.
LeBron James, who appears unlikely to retire, may not return to the Los Angeles Lakers. Others will seek out deals via back channels before making option decisions, opting out if they only have a deal lined up to relocate or re-sign.
Many are true flight risks, unlikely to return to their current squads.
Let's break those down.
Austin Reaves
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The Los Angeles Lakers are a regular on this list, as you'll see as you keep reading.
With the bulk of the roster hitting free agency, Reaves is one of the best available players on the market, at No. 2 in B/R's Ranking of the top 70 potential free agents.
Reaves will opt out of his final year at $14.9 million to lock in as large a deal as he can.
Before injuries, Reaves was playing at an All-Star pace for the Lakers. He's a talented scorer and playmaker who could earn as much as the $41.3 million projected max this July.
The question is how high the Lakers will go, and whether one of the few teams with cap room, like the Brooklyn Nets or Chicago Bulls, will make him an offer.
Per The Athletic's Dan Woike, "Multiple front-office sources around the league... expect Reaves to have interest from the Brooklyn Nets, with a four-year, $178.5 million contract expected to be offered."
If so, the Lakers may choose not to go so high, letting him leave in free agency. Or the team can match or even exceed it, perhaps offering a lower annual number but a five-year deal starting at $35 million, for a total of $203 million.
Other suitors could get to cap room or try to entice the Lakers into a sign-and-trade, like the Detroit Pistons, Atlanta Hawks or Utah Jazz.
Andrew Wiggins
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The Miami Heat are a prime candidate for Giannis Antetokounmpo, whom the Milwaukee Bucks may trade before the upcoming draft. Wiggins can afford the Heat's flexibility by opting out of the final season of his $30.2 million deal to re-sign on a multi-year deal starting at a slightly lower salary, perhaps $25 million.
Or, he can look to move on entirely.
Technically, the decision to opt out must be made in June, before free-agent suitors can reach out to negotiate. Still, those rules are often ignored by teams, and Wiggins should have a clear sense of whether the Los Angeles Lakers are interested in adding him as a scoring wing who can defend alongside Luka Dončić.
The Brooklyn Nets and Chicago Bulls could also use help at that position. If Wiggins finds lucrative interest, his time in Miami may expire.
Rui Hachimura
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Hachimura was one of the top playoff performers as a dead-eye outside shooter. He's finishing his contract with the Los Angeles Lakers after earning $18.3 million for the 2025-26 season.
Hachimura would like a raise, closer to $30 million, though it's unclear how high L.A. is willing to go.
For teams above the cap, the most they'll have is the $15 million non-taxpayer mid-level exception. Hachimura will need the Brooklyn Nets or Chicago Bulls to covet his shooting and size on the wing.
He'd also be a strong fit with the Detroit Pistons, a team badly in need of floor spacing. Detroit can get to cap room by moving on from Duncan Robinson, whose $16 million for 2026-27 is only $2 million guaranteed, or trading other players like Isaiah Stewart II or Caris LeVert to open space for free agency.
Quentin Grimes
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The Philadelphia 76ers are challenging to read under new leadership following Daryl Morey's ousting. New hire Mike Gansey may have a different perspective coming in as president of basketball operations.
Fundamentally, the Sixers are already invested heavily in Tyrese Maxey, Joel Embiid and Paul George on a roster that was good enough to advance to the second round of the playoffs, but not a true contender.
Grimes is a talented guard, but he's not as important to the franchise as VJ Edgecombe and Maxey. The team can reinvest in Kelly Oubre Jr., Andre Drummond and Grimes to return essentially the same roster, but that doesn't leave room for any improvement. That's penciling in about $17 million apiece for Grimes and Oubre, plus $5 million for Drummond, which puts Philadelphia just below the projected second apron of $221.7 million.
Instead, Grimes could be targeted by teams like the Los Angeles Lakers or Portland Trail Blazers. The Lakers have enough to outspend Philadelphia, but the Blazers wouldn't be able to exceed the $15 million mid-level. That may be enough, as Philadelphia may prioritize elsewhere.
Kristaps Porziņģis
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The Golden State Warriors acquired Porziņģis ahead of the trade deadline from the Atlanta Hawks, but injuries ravaged the roster throughout. Porziņģis dealt with calf and health issues, limiting his contribution. Still, when near full strength, though lacking Jimmy Butler, the Warriors were fun to watch.
The Warriors could seek out LeBron James in free agency to play with Steph Curry, Draymond Green, Butler (when healthy) and Porziņģis, but the money gets tight under the first apron should James command the $15 million non-taxpayer mid-level exception.
That could limit Golden State's offer to Porziņģis to closer to $8 million. If so, he could return to the Hawks. Porziņģis could intrigue the Lakers with his scoring ability, or any number of teams with the full mid-level in need of scoring size.
Deandre Ayton
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Staying with size, Ayton could be one of the best available centers on the market, should he choose to forgo his $8.1 million option for 2026-27 with the Los Angeles Lakers.
Similar to Andrew Wiggins, Ayton should be able to quietly gauge interest before making the decision. If there's no offer above $8.1 million coming, he can safely opt in to another year in L.A., though the team could choose to trade him.
Another possibility is opting out and re-signing with the Lakers for up to $9.7 million via his rights, or at a higher figure with cap room or an available exception, depending on how the team approaches the summer.
Still, several teams need a starting center. The Atlanta Hawks like Onyeka Okongwu, but may prefer him in a bench role. The Chicago Bulls have significant cap room and no centers under contract.
Robert Williams III
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The Portland Trail Blazers didn't last long against the San Antonio Spurs in the first round of the playoffs, but just making the postseason was a significant step forward for the franchise.
Williams, who has struggled to stay healthy for most of the last few years, stepped into an important defensive role, living up to his status as a veteran with playoff experience.
Depending on his medicals, Williams could be set to earn another deal above $10 million, though probably no more than 1-2 years in length. He could fit with several teams with playoff aspirations, presumably in a managed-minute role off the bench. Teams that could threaten to steal him from the Blazers include the San Antonio Spurs, the Los Angeles Lakers, the Atlanta Hawks, and the Chicago Bulls. While Chicago may not be postseason-ready, they have a glaring need for center depth and defensive acumen.
Dean Wade
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Players who defend as their primary skill are often overlooked in free agency. Still, with the importance of players like Alex Caruso on the Oklahoma City Thunder, Wade is one of the best available versatile wing defenders.
At 6'9", he's switchable onto bigs and has been a vital part of the Cleveland Cavaliers' runs throughout his career. And after seven years in Cleveland, Wade may move on with the franchise facing apron penalties.
He's seeking the $15 million non-taxpayer mid-level exception, which could come from teams like the Philadelphia 76ers, San Antonio Spurs, Portland Trail Blazers, or Los Angeles Lakers (via cap room).
Anfernee Simons
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Given Nikola Vučević wasn't as impactful as the Boston Celtics had hoped, does the franchise regret sending Simons to the Chicago Bulls before the trade deadline?
Simons proved to be a steady contributor in Boston off the bench, averaging 14.2 points in 49 games, shooting 39.5 percent from three-point range on high volume (6.7 attempts). The Celtics fell to the Philadelphia 76ers in the first round; Simons only played six games with the lottery-bound Bulls.
Now, he's one of the best available combo guards. The Bulls have the means to keep him, and might, since the franchise has as much potential cap room as anyone this summer. Chicago recently changed leadership, with Bryson Graham hired as executive vice president; it's unclear how he views Simons.
Alternative destinations include the Detroit Pistons or Utah Jazz, among others. Teams that need an experienced scoring punch in the backcourt for near non-taxpayer mid-level exception money ($15 million).
LeBron James
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The Lakers have the means to pay James a max salary should they choose, and if the franchise stumbles to achieve its aims of building a younger, competitive roster around Luka Dončić via free agency or trade, James could return.
That said, the momentum appears to be a new home for one of the NBA's legendary figures.
James could join Steph Curry and the Golden State Warriors for the $15 million non-taxpayer mid-level exception, or even sign anywhere he chooses at the minimum, near $3.9 million. The latter appears unlikely, though James is presumably looking at a significant pay cut from his $52.6 million in 2025-26.
A bolder idea would be a sign-and-trade from the Lakers to the Cleveland Cavaliers, allowing him to finish his career where it started. The Cavaliers would need to keep their 2026-27 payroll below the first apron, which would mean several players would have to go, presumably starting with Jarrett Allen.
James would also need to sign a three-year contract, though that could include an agreement with the Cavaliers that he plays only 1-2 seasons. A $60 million deal for three would pay $30 million a season if he retires with pay after two.
It's not as wild a thought as it may initially seem.
Honorable Mention
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The 10 above are far from complete.
Others, like Kelly Oubre Jr., Mitchell Robinson, Marcus Smart, Nikola Vučević, Keon Ellis, Sandro Mamukelashvili, John Collins, Jose Alvarado and many more, face contract decisions.
The Boston Celtics may be the most likely to move on from Vučević, while the surging New York Knicks would love to bring back Robinson and Alvarado as important pieces on a championship roster.
Restricted free agency is also difficult to judge, as the flight risk depends entirely on the teams holding the right of first refusal. Some of the more prominent restricted players include Bennedict Mathurin, Jalen Duren, Peyton Watson, Walker Kessler, Tari Eason, and Mark Williams.
A large offer sheet from the Lakers, Bulls, or Nets could lead to difficult decisions.
Otherwise, the original teams have the leverage.
Email Eric Pincus at eric.pincus@gmail.com and follow him on X @EricPincus and Bluesky.
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