How the San Antonio Spurs Avoided the Post-Superstar Decline
SAN ANTONIO — Nearly a month into his first season in 20 years without Tim Duncan, Gregg Popovich still fields the same question whenever a team his San Antonio Spurs face for the first time shows up on the schedule.
“What’s it like walking into your locker room and not seeing Timmy?”
It happened again before Monday’s 96-91 win over the injury ravaged Dallas Mavericks, who played without all-time franchise great Dirk Nowitzki, as well as key players Deron Williams, Devin Harris, J.J. Barea and Andrew Bogut.
Popovich’s response always navigates the same theme: He and the eight players who remain from last season miss Duncan but life and the NBA move on.
“It's like a different group, in a sense,” he said before his team scored the aforementioned win over Dallas in what he later called a “pathetic” performance.
“Like, the leader of the pack is not there. It's interesting to watch the group and see how they re-organize themselves and realign themselves. Who is going to speak a little bit more? Do groups that usually hang together stay the same or shift? That kind of thing.
“It's fun to watch, but we all miss him. But it's a job. People move on. Guys are concerned with playing well and winning games and getting contracts. None of that ever changes, really.”
What hasn’t changed for the Spurs separates them from nearly every team that ever lost a superstar of Duncan’s magnitude: Somehow, they remain elite and must be included on any list of contenders for the 2017 NBA title.
The singularity of San Antonio’s seamless transition from the Duncan era is underscored by the experiences of other NBA champions who fell into the draft lottery pool when key players departed.
Most recently, LeBron James’ decision to bolt the Miami Heat for a return to the Cleveland Cavaliers—after the Spurs dominated the Heat in the 2014 NBA Finals—precipitated Miami’s slide out of the 2015 playoffs, even though franchise icon Dwyane Wade remained.
The L.A. Lakers’ slide into Western Conference oblivion began with Kobe Bryant’s injury woes that limited him to six games in 2013-14, when the Lakers went 27-55; and 35 games during 2014-15, when they were 21-61. Then, with a revamped roster built around lottery picks, they were a franchise-worst 17-65 in Bryant’s 2015-16 farewell season.
From 2001-02 through 2007-08, the Detroit Pistons made it to two NBA Finals, winning in 2004, and seven consecutive Eastern Conference Finals overall. But they were unable to sustain that elite level after the 2006 defection of Ben Wallace, and a trade that sent Chauncey Billups to the Denver Nuggets, for Allen Iverson, two games into the 2008-09 season. Detroit suffered a first-round ouster in 2009 and was out of the playoffs by 2010, not to return until last season, when the Pistons again were eliminated in the first round.
Better than most, Mavericks coach Rick Carlisle appreciates the rarity of what the Spurs have done over the past two decades, and into their first campaign without The Big Fundamental. His team has struggled this season without the future Hall of Famer Nowitzki, who remains on the roster but has played in only three games because of an injury to his right Achilles tendon.
“I don’t think anybody is shocked by it, by any stretch,” said Carlisle, the 2002 Coach of the Year, of the Spurs’ early success without Duncan. “They’ve done such a great job here of not only staying competitive, but staying in contention through all the transitions: out of David Robinson into the next wave; Tim Duncan, now, into the next wave.
“Non-basketball people very easily take for granted what they’ve done here. It’s really absolutely amazing what they’ve done, in terms of being able to maintain a contending team through all these transitions through, basically, a 20-year period. Very, very difficult to do, but I’m not surprised because they’ve been so good at doing so many different things, from the front office to the coaching side.”
General manager and president of sports franchises for Spurs Sports and Entertainment, R.C. Buford presides over a front office that managed to keep the team at, or near, the top of the NBA for two decades. His explanation for how the organization has managed this is simple and decidedly un-sexy.
“How do you navigate it?” Buford said. “By every day coming to work and pounding the rock and hoping that we don't skip steps and come together as a group; and that the group comes together as a selfless body that shares in the success of each other and takes responsibility in the areas we need to improve.”
Buford said planning for the eventual departures of Duncan, Manu Ginobili (now age 39) and Tony Parker (34) began when Duncan’s chronic knee pain began affecting his play somewhere after the team's 2007 NBA championship. This required a close watch of his playing time and number of games played.
“I don’t know that any of us anticipated that they would play until they were 40 years old,” Buford said. “So, there was never a date that said ‘2016 is when Tim retires.’ There were times when his health was a concern long before that point in time. So, you’re never prepared for that but you at least have to start having discussions that anticipate what would be next, many years before now.”
Advanced Spurs planning included an unsuccessful run at Pau Gasol when he became a free agent in the summer of 2014, followed by a successful pursuit of LaMarcus Aldridge when he hit the free agent market the following year.
Gasol finally signed on this past summer and has since replaced Duncan in the starting lineup.
Buford readily acknowledges the Spurs have been lucky, as well as prepared. Nobody anticipated that Kawhi Leonard would go from the 15th selection in the 2011 draft, acquired from the Indiana Pacers on draft night for guard George Hill, to become a top 10 player.
“Clearly, Kawhi’s development and the work he has invested in himself to get to this point has been very franchise impactful,” Buford said. “Were we lucky? Very much so. But this happened in 2000 when Tim decided not to leave in free agency. At that point in time, there was Sean (Elliott), David (Robinson) and Avery (Johnson), who were all going to be gone, and Tim didn’t know what was going to be next. But he trusted Pop and he trusted our group to continue his career.
“Manu and Tony had similar franchise-impact engagements with our group. So, we’ve been the beneficiary of those types of player development and improvement long before Kawhi. Kawhi is the latest example of one who is going to have a huge impact on our franchise.”
When Duncan finally made his retirement official, the depression inside the Spurs organization was lessened a bit by Ginobili’s decision to return for at least one more season.
“To have had to replace them both at the same time would have been even more impactful than when each one decides to leave as individuals,” Buford said. “I don't know how you judge that or gauge that other than that we know there is a transition approaching for our organization; and it will be better if it's a more managed transition than if it all happens at the same time.”
Popovich is not yet convinced these post-Duncan Spurs truly are championship contenders, especially after their narrow escape against the depleted Mavericks on Monday night.
“Early season records aren't anything we usually pay attention to,” Popovich said. “We try to look at how we are doing in certain areas, and we are pretty mediocre defensively overall. We started out pretty poorly, and we've gotten a little bit better. Rebounding has been below par compared to last year. Defense is below par. We are handling the ball well, but we have a lot to work on.”
In San Antonio, that is called pounding the rock.
Popovich makes certain the pounding never ends, and that explains the Spurs’ status as a title contender in the as-yet-brief post-Duncan era better than any single factor.
All quotes obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted. Stats are accurate as of November 22.
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