Biggest Early Surprises of the 2016-17 NBA Season
Did you predict that the Cleveland Cavaliers would storm out and post the league's best record through the first two weeks of the 2016-17 season?
Did you know LeBron James, Russell Westbrook and other superstars would throw up big numbers?
Were you prescient enough to realize the Philadelphia 76ers would struggle to win games even while Joel Embiid began to assert himself as a dominant force?
Of course you were on the money there. Those developments were easy to see coming, even if they weren't unanimously forecast.
But these 10 performances and trends? They fall into the category of surprises.
Anthony Davis Is Winless
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What more can Anthony Davis do?
Individually, he's having an otherworldly start to the season.
The big man is averaging 30.9 points, 11.5 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 2.1 steals and a league-leading 3.0 blocks while shooting 50.9 percent from the field and 80.9 percent from the charity stripe. His player efficiency rating is a career-best 32.0. According to NBA Math's total points added, he's already given 39.1 points to the New Orleans Pelicans in eight games; maintaining that pace would grant him the No. 6 score from 2015-16.
But Davis isn't getting any help. Terrence Jones and Tim Frazier are the only other positive contributors on the roster, and they're hardly the sidekicks you want on a competitive squad.
As such, the Pelicans are not competitive.
But it's downright shocking they haven't earned a single victory, even falling short when Davis dropped 50 points, 16 rebounds, five assists, seven steals and four blocks against the Denver Nuggets. No matter what he does, it never seems to be enough, thanks to the lackluster contributions of his lackluster teammates.
Maybe everything will magically get better when Jrue Holiday and Tyreke Evans are healthy. But the Pelicans have already dug themselves quite a hole, and it's hard to imagine them catching up with the rest of the Western Conference now that Davis' supporting cast has been so relentlessly exposed.
The Brooklyn Nets Are Both Competitive and Fun
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Well, "competitive" may be a bit of an overstatement.
The Brooklyn Nets have earned early-season victories over the Minnesota Timberwolves, Detroit Pistons and Indiana Pacers, but the underlying metrics aren't indicative of long-term success. Through seven games, the team still ranks No. 19 and No. 16 in offensive and defensive rating, respectively, and it's tough to keep winning when you're below average on both ends.
But this is still far better than even the most optimistic fans could've expected.
The 2016-17 campaign was supposed to be another hopeless year for the Nets, filled with losing and the prospect of handing away another high lottery selection to the Boston Celtics—Boston has the right to swap first-round picks for the 2017 NBA draft. They were supposed to be blown out nearly every night, struggling to remain competitive as their overmatched roster was torn apart by early- and midseason trades.
Instead, this team has coalesced around the diminished expectations—and exceeded all of them.
Brook Lopez has been playing fantastic offensive basketball while expanding his shooting range. Jeremy Lin has thrived while running pick-and-rolls, looking very much like a legitimate starting point guard. But it's been the bench that has made this team so entertaining, as plenty of young contributors light up the scoreboard:
- Sean Kilpatrick: 16.6 points, 4.3 rebounds and 2.1 assists while shooting 45.7 percent from the field, 38.7 percent from downtown and 88.2 percent at the line
- Joe Harris: 8.6 points, 2.4 rebounds and 1.3 assists while shooting 42.4 percent
- Justin Hamilton: 8.1 points and 5.7 rebounds while shooting 48.9 percent from the field and 38.5 percent on triples
And that's saying nothing of Isaiah Whitehead's impressive defense or Rondae Hollis-Jefferson's relentless intensity.
The Nets will have trouble maintaining their win percentage as the season progresses, but you shouldn't ignore them. This team is legitimately fun.
The Los Angeles Lakers Are Making Noise
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If the season ended before Wednesday night's games, the Los Angeles Lakers would squeeze by the Memphis Grizzlies and claim the Western Conference's final playoff spot. For a franchise that hasn't tasted the postseason since the failed superteam of Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol, Dwight Howard and Steve Nash led it there in 2013, that's a big deal.
Sure, the Lakers will struggle to maintain a .500 record throughout the season, even if they've survived a tough early schedule and toppled competitive teams such as the Golden State Warriors and Atlanta Hawks. But it's already easy to see distinct progress, particularly when it comes to the roster's many intriguing up-and-comers.
Brandon Ingram has struggled to find his shot as a rookie, but the same can't be said of the second- and third-year talents. Jordan Clarkson is scoring 15.1 points per game while shooting 49 percent from the field, and he's not even the team's most impressive presence.
That honor would belong to Julius Randle, who's averaged 14.5 points, 8.1 rebounds and 2.5 assists while shooting 58.8 percent from the field. Close behind are D'Angelo Russell (struggling with his two-point shot but thriving as a marksman and playmaker) and Larry Nance Jr. (quickly asserting himself as an all-around player and providing a "Dunk of the Year" candidate).
This year is about progress, and the amount of it has already been stunning. But as head coach Luke Walton explained to Tim Bontemps of the Washington Post, there could be more to come:
"Every film session there's a lot of good, and the good is getting more and more, but there's still too much bad. But as long as that ratio keeps going in the direction of ... every team, look at the best teams in the world, they're going to make mistakes. So as long as that ratio keeps going in the right direction, then we're good.
"
Expect additional growing pains in the near future. But don't hesitate to marvel at the early returns from Walton's time holding the clipboard for this youthful roster.
James "Tiny" Harden
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During the 1972-73 season, Tiny Archibald led the NBA in both points and assists per game, averaging 34.0 and 11.4, respectively, for the Kansas City-Omaha Kings. He was the first and last player in league history to accomplish such a feat.
But James Harden's early-season pace gives him a legitimate chance.
The Houston Rockets trusted the bearded guard with even more responsibility in Mike D'Antoni's high-tempo offense, and the results have been fantastic. Harden has looked like one of the league's best point guards (yes, it sounds weird to us too), averaging 31.6 points and 12.7 assists while shooting 50 percent from the field, 41.7 percent from downtown and 84.9 percent at the stripe.
Though his defense has been predictably troublesome, his offense has been awesome—the immense production literally inspires awe. His offensive box plus/minus currently stands at a league-best 14.6, which would shatter the record-shattering mark earned by Stephen Curry last year (12.36).
There's no reason for the Rockets to lessen his load—not while he's playing at this level. And that means Harden has a legitimate chance to join Archibald in the ultra-exclusive club, so long as a few other high-scoring stalwarts slow down:
| 1 | DeMar DeRozan (33.7) | James Harden (12.7) |
| 2 | Damian Lillard (32.8) | Russell Westbrook (9.9) |
| 3 | James Harden (31.6) | LeBron James (9.9) |
| 4 | Anthony Davis (30.9) | Chris Paul (8.6) |
| 5 | Russell Westbrook (30.4) | Sergio Rodriguez (7.7) |
We're not saying Harden will finish atop the leaderboard in both categories, though his passing has been in a class of its own. Still, the very fact he's in the hunt is noteworthy and surprising.
Klay Thompson Is Playing Worse Than Harrison Barnes
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Which player has been having the better season, based on the following stats?
| Player X | 17.0 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 41.2 | 20.8 | 90.9 | 10.3 | Minus-2.0 | Minus-3.3 |
| Player Y | 22.3 | 5.9 | 0.9 | 50.8 | 34.6 | 92.0 | 19.2 | 0.3 | Minus-1.2 |
Based on the title of this slide, you've probably guessed that Harrison Barnes is Player Y, while the struggling Klay Thompson is Player X.
But no one could've seen this coming.
Thompson was supposed to excel in his role with the Golden State Warriors, knocking down plenty of open jumpers as defenses paid more attention to Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant. Instead, he's been unable to find the bottom of the net even when defenders are nowhere near him; NBA.com shows he's taken 3.4 triples per game with no opponent within six feet but connected at a meager 33.3 percent clip—a stark contrast from last year's mark of 45.5 percent.
Meanwhile, Barnes was supposed to struggle.
He couldn't shoot during the preseason (26.7 percent from the field, per RealGM) and was having trouble adjusting to his new role, leading to early questions about his exorbitant new contract with the Dallas Mavericks. But all of a sudden, he's catching fire when games count and becoming the team's leading source of offense.
If you feel like we're living in the Upside Down, it's probably because we are.
Dwyane Wade Is a Sharpshooter
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Last season, Dwyane Wade took 44 attempts from beyond the arc and connected on just seven of them. Things have been a little different in 2016-17:
| Oct. 27 vs. Celtics | 4 | 6 |
| Oct. 29 vs. Pacers | 0 | 0 |
| Oct. 31 at Nets | 1 | 3 |
| Nov. 2 at Celtics | 0 | 3 |
| Nov. 4 vs. Knicks | 5 | 7 |
| Nov. 5 at Pacers | 0 | 2 |
| Nov. 7 vs. Magic | 0 | 2 |
| Total | 10 | 23 |
Maybe Wade is due for a huge correction, as evidenced by the fact a majority of his outings have been plagued by inconsistent shooting. His overall numbers are indisputably boosted by his 4-of-6 outing against the Boston Celtics, as well as the 5-of-7 showing against the New York Knicks.
But the sum total is still staggering: The veteran 2-guard has already surpassed last season's total treys, and he's done so in efficient fashion. He looks the part of a legitimate marksman—something the Chicago Bulls sorely need while pairing him with Jimmy Butler and Rajon Rondo.
Head coach Fred Hoiberg told K.C. Johnson of the Chicago Tribune that Wade has been focusing on this area:
"He's working a lot on it. His routine at the shootaround in the mornings is taking a lot of three-point shots and then he repeats that with his pregame warmup. He is emphasizing it. We're working on his footwork and finishing his shot. It's all about confidence.
"
It's working.
DeMar DeRozan Is the New Michael Jordan
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Through six games, DeMar DeRozan is averaging 33.7 points for the Toronto Raptors. That alone puts him in exclusive territory, as only eight other players have managed to do that during the first half-dozen contests of a season:
- Shaquille O'Neal (1994-95)
- Damian Lillard (2016-17)
- Michael Jordan (1986-87, 1988-89, 1989-90, 1991-92)
- World B. Free (1979-80)
- Stephen Curry (2015-16)
- Kobe Bryant (2009-10)
- Rick Barry (1966-67)
- Tiny Archibald (1972-73)
That's a bevy of Hall of Famers past, present and future. World B. Free is the most nondescript name on the list, and even he was an All-Star guard during his prime.
But let's make the criteria even more stringent: How many have averaged no fewer than 33.7 points while shooting at least 50 percent from the field and relying so little on the three-point arc that they've made fewer than one trey per contest? DeRozan is one, and these two join him:
- Shaquille O'Neal (1994-95)
- Michael Jordan (1988-89, 1989-90, 1991-92)
And that's why DeRozan is in Jordan territory.
He's thriving from mid-range and showing no compunction dominating from the sport's most inefficient territory. Except for him, he's been efficient. Whether curling around screens and thriving as a catch-and-shoot scorer or working off the bounce, he's often seemed unable to miss.
Crazy as it may sound, we legitimately haven't seen a mid-range start like this since Jordan's pre-championship prime.
The Boston Celtics Are 1 of the League's Worst Defenses
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Under head coach Brad Stevens, the Boston Celtics were supposed to serve as the primary check to the Cleveland Cavaliers' unparalleled Eastern Conference dominance. Boosted by the additions of Al Horford and Jaylen Brown, as well as the growth of myriad young contributors scattered throughout the roster, they certainly weren't going to get worse.
But thus far, the C's haven't been able to stop nosebleeds, let alone high-powered offenses. They've given up a 24-point first quarter to Emmanuel Mudiay, a 30-point, 12-dime game to LeBron James and plenty more against less talented opponents.
All in all, Boston is allowing 114 points per 100 possessions, which leaves it ahead of only the New York Knicks. That would be a disappointing finish for any squad—but especially for a presumptive contender that finished No. 4 in defensive rating for 2015-16.
To be fair, there is an important caveat here.
A concussion has limited Horford to just three appearances in his team's first six affairs, and the defensive rating has improved by 16 points per 100 possessions when he's on the floor. Marcus Smart, who spent last season serving as a physical defensive presence in the backcourt, has played in the same number of contests. Then there's the versatile Jae Crowder, who played in only four games before succumbing to an ankle sprain.
At full strength, Boston should still be a defensive juggernaut.
But that doesn't prevent the team's early-season failures from sticking out like a sore thumb.
George Hill Is an Offensive Deity
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It's not LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Stephen Curry, James Harden, Russell Westbrook or any other MVP candidate leading the NBA in offensive rating. That honor is reserved for George Hill, who has fit in rather nicely for the Utah Jazz.
The point guard has picked up the slack—and then some—while Gordon Hayward regains his health, averaging 20.4 points and 5.0 assists while shooting 54.1 percent from the field, 43.2 percent from downtown and 87.5 percent from the charity stripe.
Hill looks perfectly comfortable operating away from the primary action and waiting for a spot-up opportunity. He looks even better when handling the rock and probing for a shooting opportunity, which he couldn't often do while previously working with Paul George and Monta Ellis on the Indiana Pacers.
The result? Sheer, unadulterated offensive excellence.
Utah is scoring 100.7 points per 100 possessions when Hill is watching from the bench, and that would tie the Dallas Mavericks for the league's No. 25 mark. But the offensive rating skyrockets to 113.8 when he's playing, which falls behind only the Cleveland Cavaliers.
Hill's offense isn't wholly sustainable, and the Jazz as a whole might regress as his percentages fall back to more typical levels. But he's already proved just how valuable an offseason acquisition he was, especially with the Pacers' Jeff Teague struggling mightily in the role he used to fill.
Charlotte Hornets Are Still Thriving
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The Charlotte Hornets finished No. 9 on the offensive-rating leaderboard during 2015-16, bolstered by the All-Star-caliber seasons of Kemba Walker and Nicolas Batum. It seemed as if nearly everyone on the roster experienced a career year.
So a decline seemed almost guaranteed this offseason.
Surely, Walker and Batum would regress. It was almost certain Marvin Williams would trend in the wrong direction. The losses of Jeremy Lin, Courtney Lee, Al Jefferson and Troy Daniels had to harm the squad on the scoring end, if for no other reason than diminished continuity. Working Michael Kidd-Gilchrist back into the lineup was sure to be a painful process for the offense.
Except, none of that has happened.
While Charlotte does rank just outside the top half of the league in offensive rating, it's making things up with defensive excellence. Only the Los Angeles Clippers and Oklahoma City Thunder have posted stronger defensive ratings, and that's the biggest reason behind the team's 5-1 start.
And the news gets better. This is neither a fluke created by a cakewalk of lesser opponents, nor just eking out victories on final possessions.
According to simple rating system, which looks solely at margin of victory and strength of schedule, Charlotte has been the NBA's No. 3 outfit, trailing only the Clippers and San Antonio Spurs. There's no shame in that, especially given the diminished expectations that took hold over the offseason.
Adam Fromal covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter @fromal09.
Unless otherwise indicated, all stats are from Basketball-Reference.com, NBA.com or NBA Math and are current heading into games on Nov. 9.
