2016-17 NBA Power Rankings: How Each Team Stacks Up in the Early Going
The trick to doing the first edition of in-season NBA power rankings is avoiding overreaction.
A handful of games won't make or break anybody's year, and we haven't even had enough time to make good judgments on strength of schedule. At the same time, these are supposed to reflect how good every NBA team is right now—not three months down the road.
That means looking at records and trends, but also being careful not to lean too hard on advanced metrics without really scrutinizing them. A winless team that can't stop anyone has to slip because this is a present measure of competence, but it's also fair to build in some leeway if we expect that team (I'll just say it: I'm talking about the Washington Wizards) to figure it out eventually.
Cautious as we're trying to be, this week will probably still feature some of the wildest swings of the year. From the looks of things, we were a little too critical (Chicago Bulls) or too generous (Orlando Magic) with our opinions in preseason rankings.
Now that we've seen everyone on the court, we can do some course correcting.
30. Philadelphia 76ers
1 of 30
←→ No Movement
There are a handful of reasons to watch the Philadelphia 76ers these days: Sergio Rodriguez can run an offense, Dario Saric features an intriguing mix of rugged effort and refined skill, and you never know when T.J. McConnell is going to tackle an opponent late in a close game.
But, of course, nothing compares to the excitement Joel Embiid brings.
The rookie (who is also sort of in his third NBA season) averaged 17.3 points and 6.3 rebounds in his first three contests despite only seeing the floor for 21 minutes per game.
He's had some costly turnovers, and there have been plenty of instances of him trying to do a little too much off the dribble. But this guy shows every sign—agility, length, touch, raw power—of becoming a dominant center. Injury will always be the worry with Embiid, but barring health issues, he's going to be a star.
So, although the Sixers are winless and surely ticketed for another high lottery pick, at least Embiid offers real hope.
29. New Orleans Pelicans
2 of 30
↓ 2 Spots
Anthony Davis is pushing a stalled school bus full of his New Orleans Pelicans teammates up a 60-degree incline while general manager Dell Demps sits in the driver's seat, keeping the parking brake engaged.
Or, put another way: He is the only guy in a sinking lifeboat bailing water while his franchise drills more holes in the hull.
Use whatever metaphor you want, but get one thing clear: Davis is back in the absolutely dominant form he showed two years ago, and New Orleans is royally screwing this up—wasting AD's prime with renewed and pitiable zeal. Despite his posting 31.6 points, 11.8 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 2.4 steals and three blocks per game, the Pels are winless and boast the league's second-worst offense.
There is no second star here to help Davis. Fringe NBA players—Tim Frazier and Dante Cunningham—have started games for New Orleans. Lance Stephenson, nearly out of the league, is now a key producer (relatively speaking).
Getting Jrue Holiday and Tyreke Evans healthy (eventually) may help, but New Orleans is right back where it was during its awful 1-11 start last year: totally bereft of postseason hope and watching Davis play brilliantly in meaningless games.
This is a basketball tragedy.
26. New York Knicks
3 of 30
↓ 3 Spots
It's hard to isolate the source of the New York Knicks' 1-3 record, but it might be good to start with a quote from head coach Jeff Hornacek, per Ian Begley of ESPN.com: "They've got to do a better job of getting [Kristaps Porzingis] the ball when he's got a mismatch."
Or, you know, just in general.
Derrick Rose has assisted on one Porzingis basket this season. And while it's encouraging to see flashes of Rose attacking the rim as acrobatically as he did five years ago, he's not helping the cause if he doesn't feed their other scorers.
Developing a rapport with Porzingis, in particular, would go a long way toward creating a functional pick-and-pop offense.
The schedule has been tough, so we can't plunge the Knicks down too far, even if their minus-12.5 net rating makes it tempting.
28. Phoenix Suns
4 of 30
↓ 2 Spots
First, the good: T.J. Warren looks like he might be ready to do a decent impression of Rodney Hood's breakthrough season with the Utah Jazz last year. The third-year wing leads the Phoenix Suns with 22.4 points per game, and he's done it efficiently, hitting 50.6 percent of his shots.
High conversion rates have always been a part of Warren's game; He's made more than half of his attempts since he entered the league in 2014-15. And the herky-jerky, in-between moves that produce those points seem like they'll keep opponents off balance for the foreseeable future.
"T.J. has a unique game where his mid-range is kind of like Antawn Jamison in a sense that he has these quirky shots that he can score in unique ways in the middle of the paint and the free-throw line," Jared Dudley told Cody Cunningham of Suns.com.
Now, the bad: Warren won't ever be accused of overpassing, and the Suns offense has looked genuinely dysfunctional at times. Little so far has signaled head coach Earl Watson's odd lineup moves and unstructured attack last year were anomalies.
And if this ranking seems low for a team with a win on its ledger, keep in mind the Suns' lone victory came on an overtime buzzer-beater against a Portland Trail Blazers squad 24 hours removed from getting run off the floor by the Golden State Warriors.
27. Brooklyn Nets
5 of 30
↑ 1 Spot
We've been banging this drum for a while, people. The Brooklyn Nets aren't that bad.
They've won a pair of games so far, and new head coach Kenny Atkinson has somehow figured out a way to play at a top-10 pace while still heavily featuring the lumbering Brook Lopez. And in a true exhibition of how cagey the Nets can be, Lopez fired up a ridiculous eight triples against Andre Drummond and the Detroit Pistons on Wednesday.
Lopez hit four of them during the first half (he'd made four in his entire NBA career prior to that), drew Drummond out into space and opened up the rest of the offense in a surprising win.
The defense has been mostly terrible, and you could put together a good reel of how not to guard by taking any five-minute sequence from the Nets' 118-88 loss to the Chicago Bulls on Oct. 31.
But don't forget Brooklyn could be 3-2 if not for John Henson beating it at the buzzer two days before that.
If the Nets are looking for slogans this year, they ought to consider: "Inconsistent and overmatched, but not in a way that makes you violently ill."
24. Washington Wizards
6 of 30
↓ 6 Spots
Nobody would have blinked if you'd pegged the preseason Wizards as a playoff team, and it's still difficult to imagine them not reaching a win total in the high 30s—at least.
But holy smokes, have the Wizards been terrible.
They look like parking cones on defense…if parking cones looked back and forth at one another in confusion after giving up layups and open threes. That last part, the triples, might have been something we should have seen coming.
New head coach Scott Brooks favored an aggressive defense with the Oklahoma City Thunder, and even his good teams there surrendered a lot of clean looks from long distance because they'd sometimes get overeager to help and rotate themselves out of position.
The Wizards are doing that now. Opponents have hit a league-high 45.1 percent of their three-point attempts through three games, which has contributed to the Wizards' 30th-ranked defense. Ian Mahinmi's absence is a big deal, but he's not going to fix all that when he returns.
25. Orlando Magic
7 of 30
↓ 5 Spots
The Magic's big tumble has an unexpected source: defense.
Frank Vogel tends to get the most out of his teams' stopping power—often at the expense of success on the other end—but the Magic have dramatically underperformed expectations. Serge Ibaka looked immobile to start the year but has pepped up a bit recently. He's a real key to Orlando's dynamic play on both ends, so better play from him over the last week or so is a positive sign.
Unfortunately, Orlando continues to use Aaron Gordon at small forward, where he doesn't threaten defenders with an off-the-dribble shot but does cramp his team's spacing. He still dunks like a champ, though.
Less surprisingly, the Magic also aren't scoring. If the defense doesn't improve significantly, Orlando might stick around down here for a while.
And no, wins over the Sixers and Sacramento Kings don't inspire confidence after that 0-3 start.
22. Dallas Mavericks
8 of 30
↓ 5 Spots
Even in recent years when the Dallas Mavericks cobbled together plan-B rosters and struggled to play .500 ball, they had high-performing offenses to mitigate struggles on the other end. Sitting at 0-4 and scoring less than a point per 100 possessions, Dallas now looks like a team lacking that reliable, flaw-masking punch.
Dirk Nowitzki's mobility is more compromised than ever, Deron Williams can't get the ball into the lane, and Andrew Bogut hasn't fit, according to Josh Bowe of Mavs Moneyball: "So far, Bogut hasn't attempted one shot as the roll man in the pick-and-roll, and he hasn't been diving or setting any on-ball screens to help the Mavs' mediocre guards."
It appears Bogut's effectiveness as an offensive hub with the Warriors had at least a little bit to do with Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson flying around screens and cutting at warp speed. Plus, rolling to the cup was a lot easier when both Bogut's and Curry's defenders had to venture 30 feet from the hoop to trap Curry.
Head coach Rick Carlisle has enough banked credit to prevent a total foreclosure on the Mavs being a respectable team this season, but whatever dim playoff hopes Dallas had look even dimmer now.
21. Minnesota Timberwolves
9 of 30
↓ 5 Spots
This is not how the Minnesota Timberwolves' leap was supposed to go.
With the season's lone win coming against a Memphis Grizzlies squad resting everybody, the Wolves have been one of the biggest disappointments in the league. Remarkably, their net rating is still well on the positive side because of that huge 36-point win over the D-League Grizz.
Minnesota coughed up an 18-point lead during a loss to the Kings two days after surrendering a double-digit edge to the Grizzlies (the first time they met, with Memphis at full strength). This penchant for backsliding can't sit well with head coach Tom Thibodeau, who also hasn't gotten anything close to the defensive production many expected.
Ricky Rubio's sprained elbow turns the offense over to Kris Dunn, which means the Timberwolves now have four starters under the age of 22.
Given that level of inexperience, it might be wise to expect the struggles to continue.
20. Indiana Pacers
10 of 30
↓ 5 Spots
Sitting at 2-3 and boasting one of the worst defenses in the league, the obvious question is: Gosh, who'd have seen that coming?
Everyone. The answer is everyone.
The Indiana Pacers have a future monster in Myles Turner, but he's just not ready to be an anchor in the middle yet. And as long as the backcourt is composed of Monta Ellis and Jeff Teague, every reasonably sized guard tandem is going to feast against them.
Indy surrendered 125 points in a loss to the Milwaukee Bucks Thursday, and its only wins have come against the Mavs and Lakers.
Paul George is a great enough talent to get the Pacers back into the ranks of the respectable, but with a defense this shoddy, he's got his work cut out for him. The stylistic shift from defense to offense has not worked so far.
19. Sacramento Kings
11 of 30
↑ 5 Spots
A tough road trip out East has tamped down optimism stemming from a solid start.
The Kings have generally been more competitive and defensively focused this year, symptoms of Dave Joerger's influence on the team.
Unfortunately, the Kings haven't had much luck closing out the close ones. Defensive slips and a tendency to rely on isolation offense have hurt Sacramento during losses to the Miami Heat and Magic.
DeMarcus Cousins has been fearsomely effective on offense, but his body language following teammates' mistakes may be one of the reasons this squad tends to let go of the rope late in close contests. It's hard to stay committed when the best player is outwardly grousing.
Still, there have been a lot of good signs, even in defeat. A .500 season isn't out of the question because these Kings are legitimately more organized and defensive-minded. Clear skill development from Ben McLemore, who can dribble now, also helps.
18. Milwaukee Bucks
12 of 30
↑ 7 Spots
The Bucks are getting what they hoped for from their $100 million investment in Giannis Antetokounmpo: He's played more minutes than any of his teammates so far, and his overall plus/minus of plus-30 points on the season is a team best.
More positives: Jabari Parker has shown himself capable of doing more with the ball in his hands, and the Bucks have gotten some great looks when Matthew Dellavedova sets screens in 1-3 pick-and-rolls for Antetokounmpo.
But as was the case last season, Milwaukee hasn't found its defensive footing. Through five games, it has allowed 105.2 points per 100 possessions, a middling rate. It's enough to make you wonder if that elite defensive performance of 2014-15, when the Bucks ranked second in the NBA on that end, ever really happened.
But hey, even if the wins have come against the Pacers, Pelicans and Nets, a 3-2 record is still a 3-2 record. Let's let them enjoy this.
17. Miami Heat
13 of 30
↑ 5 Spots
The Heat are doing what they can to work around Justise Winslow's shooting issues, and putting the ball in his hands more often has helped. Defenders can't ignore him so easily if he has the rock, and it's clear early on that he's improved as a dribbler.
Good thing, because his outside shot remains a massive liability.
Through the Heat's first four contests, Winslow is shooting 35.6 percent from the field and 18.8 percent from the three-point line. He's still only 20 years old, so there's time for him to develop as a perimeter threat. But he can only provide so much offensive value if he's simply incapable of scaring defenses when he doesn't have the ball.
Fortunately, the rest of the Heat have shot the three well, and Miami is converting 38.4 percent of its triples through Thursday. Thanks to Goran Dragic's scorching start and a defense just good enough to compensate for a struggling attack, the Heat have broken even at 2-2.
15. Memphis Grizzlies
14 of 30
↓ 2 Spots
So, apparently Marc Gasol is a stretch 5 now?
After years of failing to find three-point-shooting wings to juice their offense, the Grizzlies are using Gasol to spread the floor. He's attempting a team-high 4.5 triples per game and hitting them at a 38.9 percent clip. With Mike Conley also chucking up four treys per contest and nailing them at a 56.3 percent rate, Memphis is playing some modern(ish) offense.
After ranking near the bottom of the league in three-point attempts last season, the Grizzlies have added about eight tries per game to their average, which puts them in the league's top half.
A 3-2 mark could have been 4-1, but the Grizz gave one away to the Timberwolves on Tuesday. All the big names rested, and the resulting 36-point loss destroyed Memphis' net rating.
There are concerns: Gasol is shooting 32.8 percent overall, Wade Baldwin's energy isn't quite enough to make anyone comfortable about the backup point guard spot, and the Grizz needed overtime to beat the winless Wizards and Pelicans.
Let's just be happy about the three-point shooting development and not think too hard about the red flags for now.
23. Los Angeles Lakers
15 of 30
↑ 6 Spots
It'd be a mistake to get too carried away with the Los Angeles Lakers' shocking 123-116 road win over the previously perfect Atlanta Hawks. This team may not have an average defender on the roster, and you'll have a hard time finding a guard who dies on more screens than D'Angelo Russell.
In their 113-96 win on Oct. 30, the Thunder got whatever they wanted when Steven Adams screened Russell to free Russell Westbrook. L.A.'s second-year point guard simply disintegrated on every pick.
But head coach Luke Walton has the Lakers scoring during a dramatically more fluid offense—one that helped them in that Hawks win and also opened the year with a shootout victory over the Houston Rockets. Russell's offensive leadership was key in both.
Julius Randle doesn't know he has a right hand, but he plays hard. And Jordan Clarkson has posted some wild single-quarter outbursts. Both have been featured in bold small-ball lineups that include four guards and Randle at the 5.
A shoddy defense and the looming incentive to lose (hey there, top-three-protected pick!) will keep Los Angeles from reaching the middle of the pack, but this is a significantly improved team.
16. Denver Nuggets
16 of 30
↑ 3 Spots
"As well as Nurkic played in the preseason and as much work as he put in during the summer, there's no way the team could have foreseen him becoming a guy they could feed all night long," Chris Dempsey of the Denver Post wrote of Jusuf Nurkic.
But that's exactly what the hulking big man has become.
That's only a problem because Nikola Jokic is also exceptionally skilled and is best utilized at center. Playing the two together compromises defensive mobility, but at least Jokic's passing and potential as a shooter could open the floor up on offense.
Basically, head coach Mike Malone has an enviable problem to solve.
Denver has used its bigs to post a respectable 2-2 start despite three of its first four games coming on the road. Its next three will be away from home as well, but there has been plenty to like about this group so far. If it comes back home in good shape in mid-November, watch out.
14. Detroit Pistons
17 of 30
←→ No Movement
We always associate Stan Van Gundy's teams with dominant defensive centers, a pick-and-roll offense and a great deal of exasperated, mustache-adorned complaining from the sidelines. But sometimes we overlook how he makes such great use of skilled combo forwards.
How soon we forget the likes of Rashard Lewis, Hedo Turkoglu and even a young Ryan Anderson.
This seems like a good time to mention Tobias Harris has been scorching to start the season, posting an effective field-goal percentage of 64.9 (best on the team and elite among wings) while pairing with similarly tweener-ish Marcus Morris in a strong forward tandem.
As Van Gundy told Keith Langlois of Pistons.com:
"It's not every night because some teams will obviously run some really good defensive people out there, but generally they'll each have an advantage somewhere in a matchup. Maybe one of them will have a guy they can take down in the post, the other guy will have a guy they can take out on the perimeter and do some things. We have them both handle in some pick and rolls, they're both the screener in some pick and rolls, they both post, they both isolate. So we can usually find something for each of them in each matchup.
"
Harris and Morris rank first and second on the Pistons in scoring, and their effectiveness has compensated nicely for Reggie Jackson's absence and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope's stubborn refusal to become a reliable shooter. Detroit's 3-2 start isn't spectacular, but the overall package (with Harris more prominently featured) looks promising.
13. Chicago Bulls
18 of 30
↑ 8 Spots
We should have known something was up when Dwyane Wade hit four threes in the Bulls' opener against the Boston Celtics.
An offense that wasn't supposed to work has been excellent so far, as Chicago's pace and ball movement (not to mention some truly out-of-character three-point shooting) is making point production easy. Sustainability is obviously a question, but it's encouraging that Jimmy Butler is still getting the most field-goal attempts on the team, and Rajon Rondo isn't stopping the ball as part of an assist hunt.
Through Chicago's first three contests, he tied for the league lead in secondary assists (the pass before the pass that leads to the bucket).
Fred Hoiberg has always been billed as an offensive coach, and maybe the Bulls' scoring surge is just a sign that his personnel last year couldn't execute the style he wanted.
The Bulls, 3-1 and scoring like mad, are easily one of the biggest early surprises. With a sample this small, though, they're a team to watch closely for signs of regression.
In fact, there's some skepticism priced into their current ranking. In a vacuum, they've been one of the half-dozen best teams so far.
12. Portland Trail Blazers
19 of 30
↓ 2 Spots
Instead of expecting C.J. McCollum to make a lower percentage of his long twos and anticipating defensive struggles, maybe we should have focused on opponents no longer overlooking the Blazers after last year's leap forward.
"We're not sneaking up on people this year," Meyers Leonard told Joe Freeman of the Oregonian after Eric Bledsoe's Thursday game-winner dropped the Trail Blazers to 2-3 on the year.
It was all found money for Portland during 2015-16; minimal expectations and the freedom that came with them kept the roster loose and foes off their guard. Things are harder now.
At the same time, Damian Lillard looks better than ever, particularly finishing at the rim. Through the Blazers' first five games, Lillard converted an incredible 73.2 percent of his shots within two feet of the basket—a major improvement over his career mark of 56.4 percent.
As long as he keeps beasting, McCollum keeps scoring and the ball keeps hopping like it always does in Portland, the Blazers will be fine.
They just need to remember they're a team that gets circled on the schedule now.
11. Houston Rockets
20 of 30
↓ 3 Spots
James Harden is the best offensive player in the world today. Entrusted by head coach Mike D'Antoni with primary (and secondary and tertiary…) ball-handling duties, he has already produced three games with at least 30 points and 15 assists.
According to ESPN Stats & Info, that happened three times in the entire NBA last year.
Soon, defenses will either trap Harden in the pick-and-roll or switch everything—what we've seen so far makes it clear conventional tactics are out of the question. How Houston adjusts will determine its ceiling, though as backup plans go, simply isolating Harden in a spread situation is a pretty good one.
More broadly, how the Rockets address Harden's truly mind-bending on-off split will be critical. With him on the floor, Houston outscores opponents by 11.6 points per 100 possessions. When he sits, the Rockets get destroyed: minus-29.3 per 100.
This is the downside to making one guy—profoundly skilled as he is—the alpha and omega of your offense.
Harden may make history with his numbers this year, but the Rockets need to figure out how to survive without him.
7. Boston Celtics
21 of 30
↓ 2 Spots
The Celtics' slip has nothing to do with their loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers on Thursday.
Playing the second leg of a back-to-back set and missing both Jae Crowder and Horford, the Celtics were hardly competing at full strength against the reigning champs.
The injuries are a concern, though. Deep as the Celtics are, we can't ignore Horford's concussion, Crowder's ankle and Avery Bradley's shoulder when gauging this team's present strength. And we haven't even mentioned Kelly Olynyk, who has yet to play.
Marcus Smart is back, and Jaylen Brown shows flashes every night. With those two, Isaiah Thomas, Amir Johnson and a lot of serviceable parts, the Celtics are still a good team. But until they have all hands on deck, they can't lay claim to the title of "East's Second Best."
For what it's worth, I think they'll get there eventually.
8. Atlanta Hawks
22 of 30
↑ 3 Spots
That home loss to the Lakers on Wednesday tempered what was otherwise going to be a huge jump for the Hawks, but this is still a team exceeding expectations.
We knew Atlanta would be different with Dennis Schroder taking over for Teague and Dwight Howard slotting in for Al Horford, but until we saw things take shape on the floor, it was hard to be sure whether different meant better or worse.
Behind Howard, who's averaging 12 rebounds per game, the Hawks have grabbed a vastly improved 53.3 percent of available boards. Last year with Horford, they secured just 47.5 percent, third-worst in the league.
Kyle Korver's shot is back, Paul Millsap is still an All-Star and it looks like Tim Hardaway Jr. will be the latest wing to resurrect his career in Atlanta. He scored a dozen in the fourth quarter of the Hawks' opener and put up 14 during the first period against the Lakers.
Of all the teams featured so far, the Hawks look the most well-rounded. That's enough to get them into the top 10, but a comically soft schedule prevents anything more than that.
10. Oklahoma City Thunder
23 of 30
↑ 2 Spots
The Thunder got fat on the Sixers, Suns and Lakers, which made it hard to trust their undefeated start. But then they also beat the Los Angeles Clippers and gave us something to think about.
Could the Thunder still be among the league's elite?
The Warriors answered that question definitively, hammering OKC by a final of 122-96 on Thursday.
On the positive side, Oklahoma City's defense feels real. There's a lot of length, athleticism and size here, and we saw the Thunder crank it up on that end during last year's playoffs. Currently sitting among the league's elite on D, it won't be a surprise if the Thunder finish top-five.
The other end is the issue. Can an offense led by one guy, Westbrook, using well over 40 percent of possessions really get it done?
According to The Ringer's Kevin O'Connor, probably not: "Only 18 times in NBA history has a qualifying player finished a season with a usage percentage of 35 or greater. Only a few of those players led their teams deep into the playoffs: Seven teams missed the cut, five lost in the opening round and only one went to the Finals."
The Thunder have been impressive, and Westbrook's foreseeable takeover effort hasn't disappointed. But slotting them higher is betting big on an offense that functions (and dysfunctions) because of one man, and that's not a smart bet.
9. Charlotte Hornets
24 of 30
←→ No Movement
One great way to keep your head above NBA water is to never, ever waste possessions. And just as they were last year, the Charlotte Hornets are the league's best in ball security.
Thanks to a turnover ratio of just 10.8, the Hornets are getting good returns from an offense that has its flaws.
As expected, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist's return has cramped spacing a bit. But Kemba Walker remains adept at working for shots inside the arc, while both Frank Kaminsky and new addition Marco Belinelli have kept defenses honest from the perimeter.
Assists on nearly two-thirds of all team buckets haven't hurt, either.
The other predictable change with MKG coming back has been an improved defense. Charlotte is allowing just 95.4 points per 100 possessions.
Reliable stops and an allergy to turnovers make the Hornets feel far steadier than the teams immediately beneath them—even if the ceiling may not be quite as high.
6. Utah Jazz
25 of 30
←→ No Movement
George Hill is proving he can lead a team as a pick-and-roll attacker, which has been vital with Gordon Hayward out. Assuming the Jazz ever get back to full strength, Hill will eventually see his usage decline and his spot-up game come more into focus. But it's highly encouraging to see him flash the expanded skills he kept mostly hidden with the Pacers.
Here's Gordon Monson of the Salt Lake Tribune: "He's nobody's superstar. But did you watch what he did against the Lakers, the Spurs, the Mavericks? He grabbed those games by the throat and held on tight, not just by way of his own numbers—23, 22, 25 points—and his defense, but by the effect he had on everyone else."
Utah has seen Derrick Favors limited as he plays his way into shape, Boris Diaw has missed games, and now Alec Burks is out indefinitely after yet another surgery on his ankle.
Much of the optimism surrounding this team stemmed from its depth. And while a core of Hill, Favors, Rudy Gobert, Rodney Hood and (eventually) Hayward is excellent, it's difficult to slot the Jazz any higher because health is already such a looming issue.
An impressive road win over the San Antonio Spurs on Tuesday keeps Utah on firm footing, but a return to the top five will depend on how well the roster heals up.
4. Toronto Raptors
26 of 30
↑ 3 Spots
Regression to the mean is taking a real beating at the hands of the Toronto Raptors.
DeMar DeRozan's iso-heavy, high-volume work in the mid-range area was supposed to yield far worse results than it did last year, Kyle Lowry was a lock to slip after a career season, and an overachieving team was bound to come back to earth.
Nope. Not so far, anyway.
DeRozan has pumped in at least 30 points in all four games he's played, and if anything, he's better at those analytically frowned-upon pull-ups. (Check the accuracy rates: DeRozan's at 57.7 percent from 10-15 feet and 59.4 percent from 16-22.)
Now, those percentages will definitely fall. They have to. But when they do, DeRozan can sustain some efficiency by getting to the foul line—something he's doing at a higher rate than ever this year.
DeRozan and Lowry and pretty much everyone else on the roster look capable of reprising what they did a year ago. At 3-1, with the lone loss coming in a close 94-91 contest against the Cavaliers, Toronto looks as tough as ever.
3. Golden State Warriors
27 of 30
↓ 2 Spots
Two seemingly conflicting statements can be true about the Warriors.
1. They have shown real vulnerability this year.
2. They will still wind up being the league's best team.
If we erred in evaluating this group, it was in expecting them to reach that top-line status right away.
We underrated the importance of the details: chemistry, rim protection and integrating a superstar. For most teams, those aren't secondary concerns. But for the Warriors, the focus was on the simple truth that they had an overwhelming amount of talent, which meant they were essentially invincible.
They still can be. They still probably will be.
But Zaza Pachulia's inability to challenge shots is a concern. So is the slight athletic decline of Andre Iguodala. So is the lack of a clear backup center behind Pachulia.
Eventually, the Dubs will overcome all that stuff. They're too talented not to. But the Spurs served an opening-night reminder that this will take a little time.
5. Los Angeles Clippers
28 of 30
↓ 1 Spot
The Clippers have a pair of solid in-conference wins after beating the Jazz and Blazers, and Blake Griffin has mostly assuaged concerns about waning effectiveness coming off a half-missed season. But what's odd about L.A.'s start is the disparity between the first and second units.
The Clips' starters always rank among the league's best, which is not a surprise with Griffin, Chris Paul and DeAndre Jordan basically guaranteeing great offense and respectable D.
That group has, shockingly, barely broken even so far.
Even weirder: The Clippers' all-bench unit of Raymond Felton, Jamal Crawford, Austin Rivers, Wesley Johnson and Marreese Speights has defended well and posted a net rating of plus-26.9 in 33 minutes. Who saw that coming?
The Clippers can expect those figures to reverse eventually. For now, L.A. loses a spot because the team ahead of it looks like the conference finalist it was a year ago.
For Clippers fans who've only ever heard about them, the conference finals are a series that comes after you advance past the second round.
2. San Antonio Spurs
29 of 30
↑ 1 Spot
If not for a 106-91 home loss to the Jazz on Tuesday, the Spurs would have had the top spot sewn up.
An opening-night throttling of the snoozy Warriors set the early tone, and Kawhi Leonard's unfathomably continuing growth put him right back in the MVP conversation he joined last season.
Try to digest the significance of Leonard, the league's best defensive player, now featuring an unstoppable isolation game and a conspicuously improved handle: The word unfair comes to mind.
San Antonio isn't perfect. It must figure out how to mask Pau Gasol's defensive shortcomings if it ever wants him on the floor to close games. It's early to be citing numbers like this, but when Gasol sits, the Spurs allow just 91.3 points per 100 possessions. When he plays, that figure rises to 106.6, a split that reflects his decreasing mobility at age 36.
Also: Tony Parker's burst is all but gone.
Still, on balance, this version of the Spurs has looked strikingly similar to the one that notched 67 wins and the league's highest net rating (yes, higher than the Warriors) last year.
1. Cleveland Cavaliers
30 of 30
↑ 1 Spot
Continuity matters, man.
The Cavaliers made it easy for us, winding up as the only undefeated member of last edition's top three. As such, they wrangle the spot that maybe should have belonged to them in the first place as defending champs.
After all, they didn't make any major chemistry-challenging additions like the Warriors. And they didn't lose any iconic leaders like the Spurs.
Worry all you want about that void at backup point guard, but just remember that LeBron James, the best point guard on the team when it comes down to it, means Cleveland's playmaking needs aren't exactly pressing.
The Cavs are steady, unbeaten and mostly without weakness.
That's good enough for No. 1.
Stats courtesy of NBA.com and Basketball-Reference.com and are accurate through games played Nov. 3.
