2017 NBA Free Agency: An Early Primer on Next Year's Class
There are no premature NBA free-agency conversations, only people who hate fun.
A second salary-cap spike in 2017-18 promises to send the league for another whirl. Contract totals will once again beget sticker shock, and player movement should be high.
That demands we sprint ahead of the curve and ready ourselves for the lovable madness and mayhem awaiting us next summer. This primer aims to leave no stone unturned; it cycles through every household name and then some.
Players will appear under whichever umbrella best suits their situations. Potential free agents with player and team options are only included if we should expect them to be declined; those with early-termination options are up for consideration only when they're likely to be exercised.
From flight risks and redemption-seekers whose futures are on the line in 2016-17 to hidden gems and ring-chasers, this journey covers all the major talking points.
Salary-Cap Details
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Next summer's salary cap is slated to reach $102 million, which is $5 million lower than the league's initial estimate, according to Basketball Insiders' Eric Pincus.
No big deal, right? Wrong.
True, a $5 million dip still represents a roughly $8 million jump. But teams were, and probably still are, banking on a larger leap. This past summer's cap was supposed to hit $89 million. It ended up climbing over $94.1 million, gifting general managers more than $5 million in additional wiggle room.
Teams planning for a similar increase are, for now, working through a $10 million swing in the wrong direction. So the current projections, should they hold true, are problematic for any organization looking to own free agency—especially the Golden State Warriors.
ESPN.com's Brian Windhorst wrote: "Kevin Durant is signing a contract Thursday that will allow him to re-enter the market as a free agent next summer. Because the Warriors will not have his full rights at that time, they will have to create $33.5 million in cap space if Durant wants a new max contract."
Relax, Dubs Nation (and newly minted bandwagoners). The Warriors won't lose Durant over this roadblock. But it could impact how much they can offer supporting-cast members such as Andre Iguodala and Shaun Livingston, who are scheduled to explore the open market.
Capped-out franchises also have some food for thought now that the luxury-tax line is supposed to drop from a projected $127 million to $122 million. Certain expensive rosters (Cleveland) are bound to get even pricier without making any substantial additions.
Interest Is Futile: Restricted Free Agents Unlikely to Switch Teams
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Steven Adams, Oklahoma City Thunder
Steven Adams' case applies to almost everyone on this page—his market will be a max contract. The Oklahoma City Thunder can cut through that red tape and broker an extension before the October deadline, but letting him reach restricted free agency keeps his cap hold at $7.9 million until he signs a new deal. That frees up Oklahoma City to shop for other free agents, then exercise its Bird rights to go over the cap and re-sign him.
Though max deals are traditionally reserved for those who are featured offensive options, Adams is indispensable to the Thunder's defensive survival, especially following this offseason's Serge Ibaka trade to the Orlando Magic. And Durant's departure makes Adams the second-most important player on the roster.
There's virtually no chance Oklahoma City will let him walk.
Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks
The Bucks won't blink at shelling out nine figures for a perimeter cornerstone, even if he struggles to score outside the restricted area. Antetokounmpo, who will turn 22 in December, added more than twice as many points to Milwaukee's cause last season as any of his teammates, according to NBAMath.com.
More than that, 7(ish)-footers who can defend every position don't grow in technologically advanced underground labs with unlimited capital, let alone on trees.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Detroit Pistons
With the Detroit Pistons already trying to lock up Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, per the Detroit Free Press' Vince Ellis, it's likely he'll stay with the team. He sees more time on the opposing offense's best scorer than anyone else, and the Pistons aren't about to sever ties with him when they won't have the cap space to scoop up a comparable replacement.
Rudy Gobert, Utah Jazz
Among all players who logged at least 800 minutes last season, Rudy Gobert finished second in points saved at the rim per game, behind Hassan Whiteside, according to Nylon Calculus. He is the ultimate paint-policer, and the Utah Jazz's bright future remains tethered to their defensive integrity. He won't go anywhere.
Otto Porter, Washington Wizards
Otto Porter is expected to reach restricted free agency without much of an extension pitch from the Washington Wizards, according to CSNMidAtlantic.com's J. Michael. That doesn't mean he will be up for grabs. His upside as a small-ball power forward is real, and Washington won't have someone else who can shimmy between guarding 2s, 3s and 4s unless Andrew Nicholson or Kelly Oubre is in store for a fairy-tale 2016-17.
Dennis Schroder, Atlanta Hawks
Did the Atlanta Hawks trade Jeff Teague, an All-Star in 2014-15, to the Indiana Pacers and hand the offensive reins to Dennis Schroder just so they could rip them away from him in one year's time?
No. No, they did not.
Cody Zeller, Charlotte Hornets
Cody Zeller might seem like an odd choice, but he's the Charlotte Hornets' best center on the heels of Al Jefferson's exit. He is a far better rim protector than Frank Kaminsky; Marvin Williams won't ever stick at the 5 full-time; and 2011-12 Roy Hibbert isn't walking through that door.
The Hornets could look to replace him on the open market, but the pool of pivot talent next summer is thin. Some of the best bigs (Adams, Gobert, Nerlens Noel) are restricted free agents like Zeller, leaving Charlotte short on options.
Get Your Checkbooks: Restricted Free Agents Who Could Leave
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Michael Carter-Williams, Milwaukee Bucks
Milwaukee's longstanding plan to use Giannis Antetokounmpo as the primary point guard says a lot about its commitment to Michael Carter-Williams. Unless he starts consistently finishing around the rim and/or hitting jump shots, odds are the Bucks will be no-shows to any scheduled bidding.
Gorgui Dieng, Minnesota Timberwolves
Gorgui Dieng is unlikely to leave the Minnesota Timberwolves, but Karl-Anthony Towns is the man, so we have to at least consider the former's departure.
The Dieng-Towns frontcourt marriage can get weird on offense. The Timberwolves navigated it last season by staggering minutes and relying on Towns' advanced outside touch. But they weren't good enough on defense with these two on the floor and might be reluctant to invest big-time money in a player who's better off playing their best player's position.
Nikola Mirotic, Chicago Bulls
Nikola Mirotic is a necessity for the spacing-starved Chicago Bulls—insofar as he provides shooting. He put down just 31.6 percent from three-point range as a rookie, and his 39.0 percent clip last year came courtesy of a scorching finish over his last 36 appearances. Chicago has a ton of other options up front with Cristiano Felicio (also a restricted free agent), Robin Lopez, Doug McDermott and Bobby Portis on the docket and could be willing to ditch Mirotic if the price isn't right.
Nerlens Noel, Philadelphia 76ers
Nerlens Noel would make for a great long-term defensive anchor with the Philadelphia 76ers if they weren't swimming in bigs. Joel Embiid, Jahlil Okafor, Dario Saric and Ben Simmons all limit how Noel can be used on offense, and Philly can't justify paying him tens of millions of dollars to spend even one-third of his minutes at power forward.
There's a possibility he won't finish next season in Philadelphia as a result.
Victor Oladipo, Oklahoma City Thunder
Oklahoma City has been reluctant in the past to pay top dollar for another backcourt ball-dominator. James Harden, Reggie Jackson and Dion Waiters were sent packing ahead of or during restricted free agency, and Victor Oladipo is angling for a max deal, according to ESPN.com's Zach Lowe.
While the Thunder should be more willing to pony up the cash for another ball-handler in the wake of Kevin Durant's exit, Oladipo's fit next to Russell Westbrook is a question mark if either doesn't thrive as a spot-up shooter. And even then, with Cameron Payne in tow, Oklahoma City could balk at Oladipo's asking price.
Kelly Olynyk, Boston Celtics
Kelly Olynyk's value to the Boston Celtics should be undeniable. He spaces the floor better than most 7-footers and offers enough rim protection to man the middle in five-out lineups. Boston's acquisition of Al Horford, though, complicates Olynyk's future. The two can play together and should make for a lethal duo up front; The Celtics just need to figure out whether they're willing to pay $40 million-plus per year to keep that one-two punch intact.
Mason Plumlee, Portland Trail Blazers
Only the Cleveland Cavaliers and Los Angeles Clippers have higher payrolls than the Portland Trail Blazers, so it's hard to count on them tying up even more dollar signs in the status quo. Plus, paying Mason Plumlee anything substantial becomes impossible to comprehend if Ed Davis, Festus Ezeli (non-guaranteed), Meyers Leonard and Noah Vonleh are all still in town.
Other Noteworthy Flight Risks: Cristiano Felicio (Chicago Bulls); Alex Len (Phoenix Suns); Ben McLemore (Sacramento Kings); Shabazz Muhammad (Minnesota Timberwolves); Andre Roberson (Oklahoma City Thunder)
Maybe Next Time: Unrestricted Free Agents Who Are Unlikely to Shop Around
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Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors
Sorry, folks. Stephen Curry won't trade in the chance to play with another MVP and chase a dynasty for whatever inferior opportunities await him outside Oakland.
Kevin Durant, Golden State Warriors (player option)
Scroll up.
Pau Gasol, San Antonio Spurs (player option)
Pau Gasol is the defensively inferior version of Tim Duncan. He was meant to play for the San Antonio Spurs. His brother, Marc Gasol, annointed him in black and silver even before last season ended, for crying out loud. Short of San Antonio winning a title and Gasol unexpectedly retiring, there is no fathomable way this marriage will dissolve after one year.
Andre Iguodala, Golden State Warriors
Iguodala will get better offers from other teams, and the Warriors may be more limited in what they can hand him thanks to low-end cap projections. But Iguodala was a part of the recruiting contingent that convinced Durant to leave Oklahoma City. It sure seems like he's settling in with Golden State for the long haul.
Kyle Lowry, Toronto Raptors
Kyle Lowry will be 31 when free agency rolls around. The Toronto Raptors could color him too expensive and thus expendable. Cory Joseph can start at point guard, DeMar DeRozan has evolved as a playmaker, and Delon Wright may turn into something yet.
Lowry, however, remains more important to the Raptors than anyone. He is one of their best two-way players and the face of their resurgence. General manager Masai Ujiri would sooner trade DeRozan before letting Lowry leave for nothing.
Dirk Nowitzki, Dallas Mavericks (team option)
Dirk Nowitzki will retire as a member of the Dallas Mavericks and, per ESPN.com's Marc Stein, he thinks playing for 20 years would "sound really, really great." Ergo, he won't call it quits after this season, his 19th. Double ergo, he won't leave Dallas. Triple ergo, even if the Mavericks decline his team option, he won't actually be a free agent.
Jeff Teague, Indiana Pacers
Jeff Teague was born in Indiana. He attended high school in Indiana. He said, "I would love to spend the rest of my career" with the Pacers, per the Indianapolis Star's Nate Jones. Team president Larry Bird traded for Teague with the intention of signing him to an extension, according to The Vertical's Adrian Wojnarowski.
Let's not overthink what's beyond simple. Teague's ride with the Pacers should be extensive.
Speculate Freely: Unrestricted Free Agents Who Should Be on the Prowl
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Danilo Gallinari, Denver Nuggets (player option)
Danilo Gallinari is a perfect fit for the Denver Nuggets' uptempo offense. He gets up and down the floor; can play the 3 and 4 slots; passes better than most realize; and gets to the line with absurd frequency. The problem? Denver's depth chart is packed to the brim at every position. If he decides to shop around, the Nuggets may opt for youth over his fringe star power.
Blake Griffin, Los Angeles Clippers (early-termination option)
According to Bleacher Report's Ric Bucher, Blake Griffin isn't "wed" to the Clippers. According to Steve Kyler of Basketball Insiders, the All-Star forward is "planning to re-sign in L.A." This tug of war, plus last season's batch of trade rumors, says all we need to know: Griffin will take calls next summer. And that makes sense. He has spent most of his career in Chris Paul's shadow, and the Clippers, even when perfectly healthy, aren't close to as good as the Warriors.
Gordon Hayward, Utah Jazz (player option)
There is no one reason why Gordon Hayward should want to leave the Jazz. They profile as a top-four Western Conference squad next season, and their rugged defense, coupled with a snail-paced offense, lends hope to their becoming one of Golden State's biggest obstacles.
But playing in Utah hasn't helped gain him exposure—he has yet to make an All-Star appearance or play in five postseason contests. Anything less than a breakout year from the Jazz will make his foray into the open market interesting.
Jrue Holiday, New Orleans Pelicans
Despite struggling to stay healthy with the New Orleans Pelicans, Jrue Holiday continues to produce at an All-Star level. Just two players have matched the 18.2 points, 7.9 assists, 1.7 steals and 35.7 percent three-point shooting he's averaged per 36 minutes since 2013-14: Stephen Curry and Paul. Some team is going to pay him handsomely for those numbers. And given his unlucky injury history in New Orleans, it probably won't be the Pelicans.
Serge Ibaka, Orlando Magic
Serge Ibaka isn't off-limits because the Orlando Magic traded for him ahead of a contract year. The timing of the move, in addition to what he cost, suggests the team will be prepared to max him out. But after a year of sharing the frontcourt with Bismack Biyombo, Jeff Green and Nikola Vucevic, there's no guarantee he's enamored with the idea of staying in Orlando.
Chris Paul, Los Angeles Clippers
Downplay the importance of the Clippers' 2016-17 campaign if you must, but they are auditioning for Paul's affections. He will turn 32 in May and doesn't have the luxury of time. The smart money has him mapping out an escape plan if the Clippers don't stack up with the Warriors, Spurs or Lady Luck (see: Los Angeles' first-round exit/injury parade).
Dwyane Wade, Chicago Bulls (player option)
"I'm thankful to be here today," Dwyane Wade said during his first press conference as a member of the Bulls, per ESPN.com's Nick Friedell. "This is one of those moments that is a dream come true. Simply that. I'm a Chicago guy, a Chicago kid."
This guy? Leave the Bulls? After one year? When he's slated to make $23.8 million in 2017-18? That's crazy—just not as crazy as ruling out the possibility that Wade, at 35, will join forces with some combination of his banana-boat besties (Carmelo Anthony, LeBron James, Paul).
Other Noteworthy Flight Risks: Tony Allen (Memphis Grizzlies); Andrew Bogut (Dallas Mavericks); Tyreke Evans (New Orleans Pelicans); Taj Gibson (Chicago Bulls); Ersan Ilyasova (Oklahoma City Thunder); Shaun Livingston (Golden State Warriors); Amir Johnson (Boston Celtics); Patty Mills (San Antonio Spurs); Derrick Rose (New York Knicks); Tiago Splitter (Atlanta Hawks)
Fire Up the Trade Machine: Free Agents Most Likely to Be Dealt Next Season
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Rudy Gay, Sacramento Kings (player option)
Don't ask about the Sacramento Kings' big-picture intentions. (We're not sure the team knows what they are.) In the interim, Rudy Gay isn't a happy camper, and Sacramento is trying to move him, per Basketball Insiders' Steve Kyler.
Shipping him elsewhere won't be easy—certain teams won't want to acquire Gay and risk paying him $14.3 million next season should he exercise his player option. Other squads will be fearful of forking over anything or anyone of slight value in exchange for a rental.
Some happy medium probably exists. The Kings can't expect to get much for Gay, and since he's already displeased with the current state of affairs, they should be properly motivated to dump him and hand a lion's share of his minutes to Omri Casspi and Garrett Temple.
Paul Millsap, Atlanta Hawks
The Atlanta Hawks have assured Paul Millsap he won't be traded, according to Kyler, confirming his brief stint on the chopping block this summer was all about keeping Horford and nothing more.
Then again, the Hawks explored Horford's trade market last season because he was a flight risk. Who's to say they won't do the same with Millsap? He turns 32 in February, and Atlanta won't be foaming at the mouth to pay him near-max money unless it has emerged as a true threat to Cleveland's Eastern Conference reign—which, let's face it, isn't happening.
Greg Monroe, Milwaukee Bucks (player option)
The Bucks were still trying to trade Greg Monroe as of late July, according to ESPN.com's Marc Stein. Their stance isn't about to change. John Henson and Miles Plumlee are both locked up through 2019-20, and there is little hope for Milwaukee's interior defense as long as Monroe and Jabari Parker are playing together.
Finding genuine suitors is obviously an issue, otherwise a deal would have been done by now. But Monroe's combination of post scoring and passing can help the right team—one stocked with shooters and perimeter defenders. His value is low, not nonexistent. The Bucks should be able to suss out a taker for his services (Hornets!) before next February's trade deadline.
The Redemption-Seekers
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Terrence Jones, New Orleans Pelicans
Terrence Jones better hope his one-year gambit with the Pelicans pays dividends. At least one team was offering him more money, according to ESPN's Marc Stein, and he doesn't have the safety net of a multiyear contract.
Granted, Jones won't have trouble finding work even if he's awful in New Orleans. But he's running out of time to secure a lucrative long-term pact. He has missed 150 of a possible 328 regular-season contests since entering the NBA in 2012, and his three-point rate has hovered above the league average only once (2014-15).
There will come a point when his stretch forward-center appeal fades and teams start labeling him as damaged goods. This season could be his last chance to carve out an expensive niche.
Ty Lawson, Sacramento Kings
Ty Lawson is joining the Kings a year too late. His former coach, George Karl, was fired long before he agreed to a one-year deal with Sacramento, as reported by The Vertical's Adrian Wojnarowski. Newly instated head coach Dave Joerger champions a vastly different offensive approach, one that won't look to push the pace as avidly.
Those who are unemployed into late August, though, cannot be choosy. Lawson is lucky to have caught on with the Kings, (much less anyone at all). Darren Collison is the lone (real) point guard on the roster, so there will be minutes and touches available—enough for Lawson to show whether he's worth a longer-term flier in 2017.
Jared Sullinger, Toronto Raptors
This summer should have been Jared Sullinger's opportunity to cash in on four years of service. Instead, while many of his peers rented armored trucks, he was left to settle for a one-year deal with no guarantee of a lucrative long-term agreement.
That's not to say Sullinger's case is hopeless. The Raptors intend to start him at power forward, according to TSN Sports' Josh Lewenberg. He will once again have plenty of opportunities to contribute on an Eastern Conference contender. Yet, if he doesn't flash a consistent long-range jumper or develop into a reliable rim protector, he could be in the same situation next year.
Dion Waiters, Miami Heat
Shortly after signing with the Miami Heat, Waiters wrote on Instagram that he could have waited and received more money elsewhere. That may be true—Dwyane Wade's exit allows Miami to give Waiters more minutes and shots than most other squads, which he can, in theory, parlay into more money.
Still, after shooting 35.8 percent from three and connecting on 38.2 percent of his spot-up triples last season, Waiters is making less ($2.9 million) than he did as a rookie ($3.7 million). You cannot sell that as a win—especially not this side of an unprecedented salary-cap spike. He needs the upcoming season to be his springboard into greener pastures, lest he spend the rest of his prime jumping from team to team, never putting down NBA roots.
Hidden Gems to Watch
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Bojan Bogdanovic, Brooklyn Nets (restricted)
Scorers will always have a place in the NBA, and Bojan Bogdanovic has shown he can set the scoreboard ablaze. He averaged 15.1 points per 36 minutes last season on an adequate 43.3 percent shooting, including a 38.2 percent clip from three-point land.
He manufactured even more clout playing with Croatia in Rio de Janeiro at the Olympics. His 25.3 points per game led all scorers, and he swished 45.0 percent of his threes while making frequent trips to the foul line.
International production seldom translates to the NBA, but the Brooklyn Nets have shots to go around after dealing Thaddeus Young and whiffing on Allen Crabbe and Tyler Johnson in free agency. This time next year, Bogdanovic could be reaping the financial benefits that come with assuming a high-usage role for a cruddy basketball team during a contract season.
Joffrey Lauvergne, Oklahoma City Thunder (restricted)
Joffrey Lauvergne remains a diamond in the rough even after being traded to the Thunder, per Wojnarowski. (P.S. Yes, I majored in divination at college.) It's possible he could become collateral damage of Oklahoma City's frontcourt logjam, which now features himself, Adams, Nick Collison, Ersan Ilyasova, Enes Kanter, Mitch McGary and Domantas Sabonis.
All of which is great news for teams looking to poach a restricted free agent.
Lauvergne has potential as an everyday 5. His willingness to chuck threes helps space the floor by default, and he is averaging a double-double per 36 minutes for his career. His budding court vision, meanwhile, is a boon for his back-to-the-basket game. He shot 55.8 percent on post-ups last season—which, when complemented by more than 29 percent of his field-goal attempts coming outside 16 feet, makes him difficult to defend.
Hollis Thompson, Philadelphia 76ers
Anyone who shoots 39.1 percent from deep through three seasons with the Sixers deserves a medal. See: Hollis Thompson.
His field-goal percentage has dipped each year, and he's a below-average finisher around the rim. But he provides quality minutes at shooting guard, small forward and power forward—multi-position versatility that's becoming the foundation for effective defenses and, on an individual level, high-end wings.
Thompson doesn't need to develop into a much more efficient scorer; Most of his shot attempts last year came as spot-up treys. His role: orbit the arc and work his tail off on defense. And there's nothing wrong with that as long as he, unlike last year, makesmeasurable progress in this role.
Ring-Chasing Watch
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Vince Carter, Memphis Grizzlies
Vince Carter has taken himself off retirement watch. He made it clear in June that he wants to play another two years, per the New York Post's Fred Kerber. And with his 40th birthday on the horizon, in January, he's the perfect candidate to join a powerhouse.
Here's hoping for a Vince Carter-Richard Jefferson-Kenyon Martin reunion in Cleveland.
Kyle Korver, Atlanta Hawks
Kyle Korver was ice cold last season by his standards. He shot 39.8 percent from beyond the arc and didn't break his own record for the best shooting season from a non-center in league history. He will turn 36 in December and is on the decline, transitioning from an all-galactic flamethrower to a regular-old, all-world sniper.
Coming to terms with this regression has to sting. Latching on to, say, the Cavaliers, Spurs or Warriors at the veteran's minimum next summer would help ease the pain, a la Ray Allen linking up with the Heat in 2012.
Zach Randolph, Memphis Grizzlies
Zach Randolph loves Memphis, and the city loves him back. But the fit beyond next season is iffy. The number of power forwards he can defend plummets with each passing year, and the Marc Gasol-Randolph frontcourt binds the Grizzlies to a very specific, very slow offensive system.
At 36 years old, with a possible reserve role for a middle-rung Western Conference team staring him in the face, Randolph could decide to chase hardware over hundy sticks. And can't you see him replacing David West as a second-unit enforcer for the (could-be) reigning-champion Warriors?
Retirement Watch
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Manu Ginobili, San Antonio Spurs
This season could be Manu Ginobili's last—there is a sense of finality looming over San Antonio. Tim Duncan is off somewhere, probably sewing his own big-pocket jeans and charcoal-plaid wool shirts, and Ginobili's international playing career is already over.
It won't be long before his NBA tenure is, too.
Kevin Garnett, Minnesota Timberwolves
Forget next summer. It's not clear whether Kevin Garnett intends to play this season. As former Timberwolves head coach Sam Mitchell told SiriusXM NBA Radio (via CBS Sports' Zach Harper):
"Last time I talked to him, he hadn't made up his mind. I just think the way last year ended with the owner at the very last minute -- and people don't understand, we all felt pretty good about us. Myself, Milt Newton, and the coaching staff, we all felt pretty good about us coming back. We felt like we did a good enough job to at least earn us a couple of years, a year or two, to keep that thing rolling. And I just think KG was just so hurt by the way things happened.
"
Good luck convincing Garnett to play beyond 2016-17 if he does return. He is already a glorified coach in Minnesota and turns 41 in May, which means he's closer to owning the Timberwolves than he is to the front end of his prime.
David West, Golden State Warriors
David West seems like he could play another four years. But this is the same dude who left a ton of money on the table in Indiana to play for the Spurs, only to turn around and join the Warriors one season later. If he gets the ring he's so blatantly chasing, all bets on his career continuing into 2017-18 are off.
Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com unless otherwise cited.
Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter, @danfavale.
