Realistic Expectations for the NY Knicks' 2016-17 Starting Lineup

Never underestimate the power of fun. It apparently played a role in Kevin Durant's decision to sign with the Golden State Warriors. Judging by the happy interviews and shirtless group workout videos, the New York Knicks' squad of comeback kids appears to be having a blast together.

Will Derrick Rose, Courtney Lee, Carmelo Anthony, Kristaps Porzingis and Joakim Noah continue to be so jubilant once October rolls around? 

Well-Cast Ensemble

Unless head coach Jeff Hornacek has some truly outlandish strategies in mind, these five men will be able to play in their comfort zones instead of being shoehorned into roles that don't suit them. That will do wonders both for team chemistry and individual performances.

Rose will have command of the backcourt again, with a strong wingman who is at his side but not breathing down his neck.

Carmelo can remain at small forward. Plus, he can be a leader, but he won't need to always be the leader. Melo finally embraced his leadership role last year, but now when he's tired, cranky or hurt, there are other stars and veterans to provide support.

The Charlotte Hornets mostly parked Lee downtown to shoot threes. But in New York, he may have an opportunity to show off more of his diverse skill set, like he did when playing for the Memphis Grizzlies. The Grizz tightly integrated him into an offense in which he made plenty of the quick cuts and passes he'll need in the triangle and no shortage of fast-break buckets. 

Noah was sidelined by Chicago head coach Fred Hoiberg's score-happy strategy that significantly downgraded the importance of defense. And he never quite jelled with Pau Gasol, who joined the Bulls frontcourt the year prior.

Gasol is slow and a mediocre defender, both of which caused spacing issues that Noah tried to solve by giving way to Gasol—and hurting his own game in the process. Porzingis, on the other hand, is both exceptionally nimble and a strong defender. They should be a dynamic duo. 

Porzingis will continue to be his awesome self, and some of the pressure will be taken off his young shoulders. KP does struggle to create shots for himself, and his low-post game is wobbly; the additions of a drive-and-dish point guard and a sweet-passing 5 could provide him with more scoring opportunities close to the bucket that he doesn't have to fight for on his own.   

X's and O's

If Hornacek runs more uptempo, transition offense, there will be a period of adjustment for most of the starting five. Noah and Rose had the most success playing for former Bulls head coach Tom Thibodeau, who ran a mostly slow-paced half-court offense; Porzingis and Anthony didn't see much fast-break action in New York, either.

There's no reason to predict they'll fail at it, though, assuming they get cooperation from their medically adventurous joints. None of them lack for speed or agility, and they're all great rebounders. 

Assuming the Knicks do continue running some semblance of the triangle, they could ask for no better center than Noah, who is perhaps the best passing big in the NBA. Lee will slide in nicely because of his darting cuts and quick release on his jumper. In Rose, New York now has a point guard who can drive to the hoop and dish out.  

Oh, you don't think he can? You think those days are over? Well, Rose still scored more points per game off drives than nearly anybody in the league last season (more than Kyrie Irving and just shy of Russell Westbrook).

Have a look at his highlight reel from last year. He may not have been the MVP, but there's plenty of gas in the tank. His per-game averages of 16.4 points, 4.7 assists and 3.4 rebounds are nothing to be ashamed of.

New York's backcourt production will be vastly improved compared to last season. Rose has a locked-in mid-range shot, but a mediocre three-pointer (29.3%). Lee has a stronger three-ball (37.8%) that he can let fly and drill with a lightning-quick release.  

Even though Porzingis, Rose and Anthony are fundamentally scorers, this should be a strong defensive unit. In 2015-16, the Knicks began with exemplary defense, led by a growling, snarling Anthony. However, when Melo's intensity on D wavered, the rest of the team slacked off.

Fortunately, Noah is a mythical creature, borne from the peaks of the Mystic Mountains of Defense. His intensity never wavers.

There's reason for optimism.

But Can They Stay Healthy?

Jason DeCrow/Associated Press

Yes, the new Knicks are lugging around old injuries.

Believe it or don't: Many teams' starting lineups didn't suit up together for even half of the 2015-16 regular-season games, much less all 82. The Atlanta Hawks had the best luck and only made it to 70; the Knicks were quite fortunate with 50.    

So it's not outrageous to suggest Rose-Lee-Anthony-Porzingis-Noah will be announced as New York's starting lineup only 35 to 40 times throughout the regular season. Extra days of rest here or there will add up, even without any major injuries. (Rose played 66 games last season and Melo appeared in 72, so they weren't exactly feeble.) 

Those 35 to 40 games may not be as many as fans would like, but they'll be worth the wait.

Per-Game Stat Predictions for Starting Five

Points: 70.1

Rebounds: 35.4

Assists: 16.2

Field-goal percentage: 45.3%

Three-point percentage: 35.9%

All stats from NBA.com.