Breaking Down How Evan Turner Fits After Signing with Portland Trail Blazers
The first day of NBA free agency often brings with it large contracts. Teams armed with cap space find themselves enamored with one player, and it results in deals that seem unexplainable.
2016 is likely to bring more of those types of deals than ever before with the salary cap expected to jump from $70 million to $94 million, per the most recent projections. Salary numbers will be inflated from what we're used to seeing because of the jump, and since teams have so much money to spend, they'll be boosted even more.
Case in point—Evan Turner. The former Boston Celtics swingman agreed to a four-year, $70 million contract with the Portland Trail Blazers on July 1, according to a report from The Vertical's Adrian Wojnarowski.
The shock reactions to Turner's new salary were swift:
The Blazers surprised people around the league this season by making a run to the second round of the playoffs and putting a mild scare into the then-defending champion Golden State Warriors. After losing LaMarcus Aldridge, Wesley Matthews, Nicolas Batum and Robin Lopez last offseason, many expected Portland to finish toward the bottom of the Western Conference standings.
ESPN's Summer Forecast panel projected the Blazers would win 31 games, and their Las Vegas over/under was just 26.5 victories. Instead, star guards Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum led Portland to 44 wins and the No. 5 seed in the West. Armed with plenty of cap room, the team set its sights on finding a way to push even higher.
Storylines
There were multiple teams reportedly interested in Turner's services. He had been connected to the New York Knicks, as reported by ESPN.com's Ian Begley, and Sean Deveney of Sporting News reported on Thursday that the Chicago Bulls, New Orleans Pelicans, Dallas Mavericks, Los Angeles Lakers and Memphis Grizzlies would be in the mix as well.
A former No. 2 overall pick, Turner's greatest strength is his versatility. He can swing between the shooting guard and small forward spots depending on who else is on the court, and because of his ball-handling skills, he can man the point in a pinch, though that is not ideal.
Celtics head coach Brad Stevens was able to bring the best out of Turner over the last two seasons, during which he averaged 10.0 points, 5.0 rebounds and 5.0 assists per game. There are only nine other players who matched or exceeded those figures during that time, per Basketball-Reference.com.
Despite that versatility, Turner was still pegged as a negative offensive contributor by measurements like box plus/minus (-0.7 in 2015-16) and ESPN's real plus/minus (-1.84). That can be attributed to his inability to shoot with range (30.5 percent from three for his career) and his high turnover rate (18.3 percent over the last two years in Boston, per Basketball-Reference.com), which undermined a skill set that allows him to contribute in a variety of other ways.
X's and O's
Mark Murphy of the Boston Herald reported in the wake of Friday's signing that the Blazers will start Turner at small forward next to Lillard and McCollum. That news, even more so than Turner signing with Portland in the first place, is a shocker.
Turner does his best work with the ball in his hands. He's a good passer when he's not turning it over, and he can get to his spots off the drive. But if Turner has the ball, that means Lillard and McCollum don't; and they do their best work with the ball in their hands, too.
Portland head coach Terry Stotts' flow offense is heavy on ball and player movement, and it's likely he can rejigger the offense to make things work, but the Blazers should want Lillard and McCollum controlling the action most of the time.
When they do, that means Turner will be off the ball. And being off the ball is where Turner's offensive weaknesses come into play. His lack of shooting ability causes defenses to sag off him on the perimeter when he doesn't have the rock, choking off space that would normally be available to his teammates. Lillard and McCollum have endless range, so that may matter less to them. But for players like Al-Farouq Aminu, Allen Crabbe and Moe Harkless (if they're retained), as well as Portland's centers, it matters quite a bit.
Defensively, Turner is at his best when tasked with guarding bigger wings. His size (6'7"), strength (220 pounds) and relative lack of foot speed make that the safest option for him. Much like on offense, he has shown the ability to occasionally play other positions, but ideally, you don't want him to.
Fit and Finish
It's tough to say Turner made the wrong move leaving Boston when he got paid as well as he did. Get your money, E.T. Some might say he made the wrong move leaving Stevens, who coaxed Turner's best out of him over the last couple of years, but Stotts is an excellent coach who has proved himself capable of doing the same.
However, it's tough to figure exactly how Turner will shine in Portland because of his fit with the other players on the roster.
It's not clear when there will be opportunities for Turner to handle the ball when he shares the court with Lillard and McCollum. And again, taking the ball out of his hands limits his effectiveness. He's an odd fit if the Blazers stick with their starting lineup configuration from late last season, which saw Aminu periodically starting at power forward. He and Turner together at the forward spots would mean a more cramped floor than the Blazers got used to playing with last season.
In that respect, Turner would make a more sense as a "captain of the bench unit" for Portland. The Blazers often had to play McCollum alongside the second unit last season because they didn't have a lead ball-handler for that crew. Turner could slide into that role, and it would minimize the impact of his shooting deficiencies. Pairing him with Crabbe, who shoots well but doesn't have much in the way of an off-the-bounce game, would be a nice fit.
Then there's Turner's contract. Four years at $17.5 million per year is a lot of money, and this summer looks like it could be Portland's only chance to add significant talent for the foreseeable future, especially if it retains Crabbe and Harkless with its right to match any contract in restricted free agency. McCollum and Mason Plumlee are up for raises next year, and Lillard already got his.
Considering the makeup of their core and the money they'll all be due, it's tough to figure out how the Blazers are going to improve enough defensively to become a serious contender over the next few seasons, barring a trade of some kind. In that sense, this money was probably better off being earmarked for a defensive-minded wing or a rim-protecting big.
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