Grading the Derrick Rose Trade for Both New York Knicks and Chicago Bulls
On Wednesday, Adrian Wojnarowski of The Vertical reported the Chicago Bulls and New York Knicks agreed to a trade that will send Derrick Rose, Justin Holiday and a 2017 second-round pick to the Big Apple for Robin Lopez, Jose Calderon and Jerian Grant.
For the Bulls, the trade marks a clear intention to put the Tom Thibodeau era behind them and look toward the future. For the Knicks, it indicates they are going to make every effort to get back into the playoffs, even if it means having little chance of advancing once they get there.
In assigning the grades for each team, we kept those intentions in mind.
Chicago Bulls: B+
Outgoing
After Rose won the 2010-11 MVP, one could make an argument that he was as popular in his hometown of Chicago as any athlete in America. That’s no longer the case.
After a protracted injury history, a plethora of verbal gaffes and a failure to recover his once magical splendor, a significant contingency in the fanbase soured on him.
Rose and “his camp” also seemed to have constant problems with the organization and some of his teammates. As the Chicago Sun-Times’ Joe Cowley reported:
"... Rose’s long-standing health concerns are no longer a Bulls problem. His camp’s inability to consistently have civil conversations with his hometown organization? His brother/manager, Reggie, spouting off? Rose’s questioned work ethic by Butler and others?
All of it, sent packing in a deal with the New York Knicks that now has Rose in the “Big Apple,’’ along with Justin Holiday and a 2017 second round pick.
"
The Bulls have moved on, and that’s a decision they had to make. Chicago is Jimmy Butler’s team now. There’s one thing worth noting about the timing of sending Rose, too, per Spotrac’s Scott Allen:
"Derrick Rose will earn $21,323,252 with the Knicks in 2016-17. He is in the last year of his 5 year $94.3 million and will be an Unrestricted Free Agent at the end this season. Rose does have a 15% Trade Kicker, but will not be triggered because he is already over the max for the 2015 season. If he would have been traded after July 1 then he would have earned an additional $3.2 million that Chicago would have paid.
"
So trading Rose now saves the Bulls $3.2 million in cap space for next season in spite of taking on $231,769 in extra salary.
Holiday had some nice moments for Chicago after it acquired him and a 2018 second-round pick for Kirk Hinrich at the trade deadline last season. That was capped off by his 29-point outburst against the Philadelphia 76ers in the season finale. He wasn’t going to be the wing of the future, though. Holiday is already 27 and has been in the league four years. His career player efficiency rating is 10.4, according to Basketball-Reference.com.
Incoming
Acquiring Lopez is a sign Joakim Noah is not coming back. It means the Bulls have found a solid rim protector and defensive presence to shore up their interior: Lopez is 28 and has a career average of 13.8 points and 8.8 rebounds per 36 minutes. He plays with the same kind of frenetic energy that Noah does, but he does it on younger and healthier knees.
The former Stanford Cardinal is nowhere near the passer, though, so the Bulls will miss that. He isn’t particularly agile, either, but he’s better in that regard than Pau Gasol.
Lopez is smart. He sets screens, orchestrates a defense and executes a lot of little things the Bulls were missing after Noah got hurt. He can also play alongside Nikola Mirotic and be a defensive presence to complement the emerging power forward.
He’s not perfect, but he’s as good as anyone the Bulls could hope to get in free agency.
Chicago also gets Calderon, who will be a better fit alongside Jimmy Butler than Rose was. Rose and Butler never worked well together because neither one is a great three-point shooter, and both are most comfortable running isolation.
Calderon shot 42.8 percent on catch-and-shoot threes last year, according to NBA.com. The 35-year-old won’t be the point guard of the present or future, but he should provide some help. And while his defense is substandard, it’s not much worse than Rose’s was last year.
Grant, who was taken with the No. 19 pick last season, is a promising young point guard who didn’t get enough time to show his stuff early in the year. Overall, his numbers aren’t impressive, including his 22.0 percent shooting from deep.
However, during the six games he started late in the season, he averaged 14.5 points, 3.7 rebounds and 3.7 assists on 49.3 percent from the field and 36.8 percent from deep. He’s a 6’4” guard with a 6’7 ½” wingspan, according to Draft Express. Coupled with good footwork, he’s already a decent defender with room to grow.
The Bulls needed a point guard for their future, and he could be it.
Conclusion
The deal indicates general manager Gar Forman and executive vice president John Paxson have finally acknowledged it’s time to move forward, and that alone earns them a passing grade.
For a team that is looking to the future, Lopez’s contract is decent in the bloated cap era. The Bulls also added two point guards (in addition to Spencer Dinwiddie, who they acquired from the Detroit Pistons on June 18 for Cameron Bairstow).
In essence, they filled their two biggest areas of need: a defensive presence at the 5 and a point guard for the future. Not to mention they still have the No. 14 pick and a shade over $25 million to spend in free agency.
Chicago is now primed to build a team that fits head coach Fred Hoiberg’s system, and depending on what it does the rest of the summer, could have an impressive offseason.
New York Knicks: D+
Outgoing
Dealing Lopez hurts the Knicks. He’s not an All-Star, but he is a quality role player and, as indicated by his plus-0.97 defensive real plus/minus, per ESPN.com, a plus defender. He also led the team in total rebounds with 602.
Now there’s a giant hole where Lopez used to be. For the time being, Kevin Seraphin is the top center on the depth chart because he’s the only other 5 the Knicks have. And that’s no way to win basketball games.
Giving up Calderon would have made sense if the Knicks weren’t giving up Grant, too—the best reason to give up the older point guard would be to give the younger one a chance to improve. Now they have neither.
Incoming
It’s hard to know what Knicks President of Basketball Operations Phil Jackson was thinking here. The trade, if it does make them better, has a one-year expiration date on it. Rose’s contract expires next summer, and if he plays well enough to seek out a massive payday, the Knicks have almost obligated themselves to give him one.
Rose can still drive the ball when he has the right mindset. But whether it was struggling to understand Hoiberg’s offense or leeriness about his knees, he was often reluctant to stay in attack mode last season.
With Kristaps Porzingis looking like he could be nature’s perfect stretch-4, a drive-and-kick point guard could be a great fit. And if we were talking about 2011 Rose, that combination would strike fear into the hearts of teams across the league.
Sadly, though, that is not what we’re talking about. At best, Rose’s ceiling now is an All-Star fill-in. He doesn't seem worth what the Knicks gave up, and Holiday doesn’t fill in the difference.
Conclusion
Since the trade was a wash regarding cap space, the Knicks do still have $30 million to spend. And, according to Ian Begley of ESPN.com, Dwight Howard would consider signing with the Knicks.
I’m not saying the Knicks will put fragile veterans Rose, Howard and Carmelo Anthony—all with bloated contracts—around Porzingis, but if they did, that would be the most Knicks thing ever.
If all goes perfectly, New York probably gets back to the playoffs in 2017. It might even get to the second round. But there’s also a chance the team gets clobbered by injuries and could have a horrible year with a lack of depth.
There’s a better chance that this is another case of the Knicks reaching for that brass ring too far, too soon.
