Momentum Report for Every Power 5 CFB Team: Is Program Trending Up or Down?
College football's interminably long offseason has reached its dead period, in between spring practice and the start of preseason camp in the summer. Since the last games were played in December and January, we've seen players turn pro or graduate and others transfer to new programs, schools have had their next crop of recruits sign and every team has gone through spring workouts.
Now what? How about a status report?
With things slowing down for the time being, now is a perfect opportunity to take stock of every program at the power-conference level, along with top independents BYU and Notre Dame. Taking into account what's happened to each school since the 2015 season ended and also factoring in the direction they were headed last year, we've got a momentum update for all 66 power schools.Â
Alabama
1 of 66
Trending: Up
Alabama is the defending national champion, having won three titles in the last five seasons and four championships since Nick Saban arrived in 2007. The only way you could say the Crimson Tide are trending any direction but up is if you think they can't go any higher.
As long as Saban is at the helm, though, that seems unlikely.
Since winning it all in January, Alabama has signed another top-rated recruiting classâits fifth in a rowâand had seven more players taken in the NFL draft. It would have been more if standout juniors like defensive end Jonathan Allen and linebacker Tim Williams had not opted to return, thus strengthening what was already going to be a darn good 2016 team.
Expect 'Bama to again be in the hunt for a national title this fall, but even if it doesn't win that won't change the direction this program is heading.
Arizona
2 of 66
Trending: Up
Rich Rodriguez has taken Arizona to unprecedented heights in his four years at the helm, each ending with a bowl appearance. Before 2011, the Wildcats hadn't had more than three consecutive winning seasons since 1992-95.
This run has happened without a lot of top-tier talent, too. Arizona didn't have a player taken between when running back Ka'Deem Carey was taken in the fourth round of the 2014 NFL draft and when safety Will Parks went in the sixth round in April.
Rodriguez was courted by South Carolina this offseason, but ultimately turned down a chance to coach in the SEC. That's as clear as sign as any which way the Wildcats are trending.
Arizona State
3 of 66
Trending: Down
Todd Graham had developed a reputation as a nomadic coach before arriving at Arizona State in 2012, his fourth head coaching gig since 2006. He's still in Tempe after four years, longer than anywhere else he's been, and in that time he's gotten the Sun Devils into a bowl game each time.
But after back-to-back 10-win seasons in 2013 and 2014, ASU went 6-7 last year after losing the Cactus Bowl. That marked the program's first losing record since 2011, the year before Graham arrived, and what happens now will determine whether Graham can sustain success at one place.
A bounce-back year in 2016 could move ASU forward, but for now it probably still deserves the distinction that Fox Sports' Stewart Mandel gave it, of being the fourth-most underachieving program in college football. And that was before last season's performance.Â
Arkansas
4 of 66
Trending: Up
Bret Bielema and Arkansas have been a perfect fit, with the larger-than-life character breathing new air into a program that was foundering after Bobby Petrino's exodus.
After a 3-9 season in 2013 (that included a winless SEC mark) it's been all uphill for the Razorbacks. Seven wins in 2014 were followed by eight last seasonâfive coming in league play, including victories over LSU, Ole Miss and Tennessee.
Along the way, Bielema has embraced the Arkansas culture, referring to himself as "All Hog" when his name surfaced in 2014 for the vacant Nebraska job. His teams have reflected this mindset, and despite needing to replace most of its offense, the prognosis for this season is positive.
Auburn
5 of 66
Trending: Down
Gus Malzahn got Auburn into the national title game in his first season in 2013, far exceeding any realistic expectations for that year. But because of that hot start, we keep expecting the Tigers to remain in the championship hunt and that's made their gradual (but constant) dip the past two seasons more exaggerated.
And suddenly, a coach who was seconds away from winning a championship is entering his fourth season on the job with a warmed-up seat.
"Auburn is recruiting at a top-10 level but hasn't lived up to big-time hype recently in a cutthroat SEC West," Bleacher Report's Justin Ferguson wrote.
An innovative spread offense put up big numbers in 2013 but has lacked results since then. Combine that with underachieving defenses and Auburn is heading in the wrong direction.
Baylor
6 of 66
Trending: Up
From a strictly performance standpoint, Baylor football is as good as it's ever been and has maintained this level for a few years. Art Briles has paced the Bears to 50 wins over the past five seasons, earning at least a share of the Big 12 in 2013 and 2014 and, if not for a rash of quarterback injuries last year, a third conference crown might have been in the cards.
A high-octane offense that destroys scoreboards is drawing in better recruits on an annual basis, with Baylor now making the short list of many top prospects, when a decade ago the school rarely got a look. A new stadium that opened in 2014 has helped with this as well.
In a Big 12 that's wrestling with the issue of whether to expand or not, Baylor has done just fine with the current alignment. The only thing that could slow the Bears' progress is off-the-field issues, particularly if an investigation into how the school handles sexual assault allegations involving athletesâthe findings of which haven't been releasedâhas an impact on the football program.
Boston College
7 of 66
Trending: Down
Steve Addazio needs some "dudes" to get Boston College turned around, preferably ones that are capable of moving the ball and scoring points.
The Eagles were epically bad on offense in 2015, scoring 100 points against a pair of FCS schools and then 106 over the next 10 games. They lost a 3-0 game at home and failed to top 17 points against any FBS opponent, going through four quarterbacks in the process.
The QB position has been a patchwork job since Addazio took over BC in 2013, turning to transfers in 2014 (Florida's Tyler Murphy) and this season (Kentucky's Patrick Towles). Despite some strong defenses during Addazio's tenure, the Eagles have struggled to keep up in the ACC.
BYU
8 of 66
Trending: Down
BYU made the bold decision in 2011 to become independent, hoping to use its far-reaching fanbase and consistent success to be a western version of Notre Dame. The Cougars have won at least eight games in each year of independence, going 9-4 in 2015, but with conferences holding so much power, this success hasn't enabled them to keep pace.
And it may have ultimately led to losing a strong coach in Bronco Mendenhall, who after 11 seasons left Provo for Virginia. Now first-time coach Kalani Sitakeânot the school's first choice, as Navy's Ken Niamatalolo turned down the jobâis taking over a team facing an insanely tough schedule this fall.
BYU has lofty aspirations for its program, the kind that would be more easily reached as part of a conference. But unless an invitation to join the Big 12 comes along, the Cougars will have to be satisfied with annual pre-arranged trips to the Miami Beach, Las Vegas or Poinsettia bowls.
California
9 of 66
Trending: Down
California broke through last year with eight wins and a bowl victory, completing Sonny Dykes' turnaround that began with a 1-11 record in 2013. That team produced the NFL's No. 1 overall draft pick, Jared Goff, who had the worst record of any player ever selected first.
This shouldn't have any bearing on Goff's pro career, but it does show that Cal rose from nowhere during his career, and now that he's gone it will take a lot to keep the Golden Bears from falling flat right away.
Goff was one of 12 starters to move on, not to mention offensive coordinator Tony Franklin. The Bears landed a big late addition in 5-star wide receiver Demetris Robertson and just got a commitment from Texas Tech grad transfer quarterback Davis Webb, but that's probably not enough to offset what's likely to be a down 2016.
How far Cal slides this season will determine which direction it heads in 2017 and beyond.
Clemson
10 of 66
Trending: Up
In the lead-up to January's national title game, some billed it as a battle of the old guard versus new blood. But Dabo Swinney has no intention of Clemson being a a flash in the pan, and the runner-up finish was just part of his long-term plan that's been in place for several years.
The Tigers have won 10 or more games for five straight seasons, including 14 last year, and in that span they've been dominant on both offense and defense and produced a slew of NFL draft picks. Clemson's recruiting and development are among the best in the country, and the 10th-ranked 2016 class should keep this trend going.
Dubbed "the most interesting coach in college football" by CNN's Jill Martin, Swinney has shown the drive and desire to want to make Clemson a fixture among the game's elite.
Colorado
11 of 66
Trending: Down
Colorado's four wins in 2015 were tied for its most in five years, which tells you all you need to know about the overall state of the Buffaloes' program. While that's an improvement over the 2-10 record of the season before, it's not enough progress to indicate Mike MacIntyre can get them to six wins or more anytime soon.
The Buffs last made a bowl game in 2007, and since moving from the Big 12 to the Pac-12 they've gone 5-40 with two of those victories coming in their debut season of 2011.
The Pac-12 is among the deepest leagues in the country, sending 10 of its 12 teams to bowls a year ago. That's not the best environment in which to rebuild, as Colorado has discovered. And its hopes for improvement in 2016 took a serious hit on Wednesday with news that Texas Tech transfer quarterback Davis Webb, who had previously pledged to be a Buffalo, is now going to league foe California.
Duke
12 of 66
Trending: Down
If not for David Cutcliffe, Duke may never have won another bowl game. While the Blue Devils achieved that goal in December, being able to do much more than that could prove difficult in the ACC.
Before Cutcliffe's arrival in 2008, Duke had won 22 games over the previous 13 seasons with four winless campaigns. Under his guidance, the Blue Devils have won 48 games in eight years, including 33 during four consecutive bowl seasonsâa run that included an ACC title game appearance in 2013 and last year's Pinstripe Bowl win over Indiana, its first bowl victory since 1961.
Look closer, though, and you'll see Duke's regular-season win total has dropped the last few years, from 10 in 2013 to seven last season. Getting to a respectable level of football has been a huge accomplishment at Duke, but that's also probably the ceiling.
Florida
13 of 66
Trending: Up
Don't let Florida's sluggish finish to 2015 distract from the bigger overall picture, which was that Jim McElwain worked wonders in his first season. He inherited plenty of talent but the kind that hadn't been guided, and he made the most of what he had, giving the Gators their first outright SEC East title since 2009.
While recent strong first years by other SEC coachesâcough, Gus Malzahn and Kevin Sumlin, coughâhaven't been followed up very well, what McElwain has done has a different feeling. Maybe it's because it wasn't flashyâand at times was downright ugly in terms of how Florida looked on offense after Will Grier was hit with an NCAA drug suspension.
McElwain acknowledged this in January, telling Scott Carter of FloridaGators.com, via Fox Sports Florida, that sustained success is "a long ways away," adding, "There are a lot of short cuts you can take to make it look prettier early, but if you don't have everything setâincluding everybody in the organizationâwhich we are still in the process of making sure we understand where we need to be as a total program."
Translation: wait a while to pass judgement, but enjoy what's happened to this point all the same.
Florida State
14 of 66
Trending: Up
When going 10-3 despite starting almost a completely new set of players is considered a âdown year,â your program is doing pretty well. Florida State had a minor dip in 2015 in the wake of its massive exodus of NFL talent the previous winter, but Jimbo Fisher's cupboard remains stocked thanks to a run of recruiting success.
The Seminoles'Â second-ranked class in 2016 marked their third straight in the Top Five, which has allowed them to withstand losses and maintain the wins. The 68 wins the past six years is better than any six-year span during the Bobby Bowden era.
Fisher's success has drawn plenty of interest from the NFL, but to this point he's sticking to Tallahassee and his presence will keep FSU rising.
Georgia
15 of 66
Trending: Up
Kirby Smart was a key part of Alabama's four recent national titles as defensive coordinator, and his arrival at Georgia has breathed new life into a program that wins on a regular basis but has always seemed on the outside of the championship picture.
With Smart in the fold, the normally lofty expectations in Athens are somehow even higher.
Mark Richt won 145 games in 15 seasons with the Bulldogs, but doing more than that was a struggle. The coaching change has been a shot in the arm, as could Smart's likely use of true freshman Jacob Eason as his starting quarterback.
The SEC East is a wide-open division that's ripe for the taking; it's just up to Georgia to actually follow through.
Georgia Tech
16 of 66
Trending: Down
Paul Johnson will defend his triple-option running offense to the ends of the Earth, refusing to veer away from a style that has had big years (342.1 yards per game in 2014, en route to the ACC title game) but also some duds. And with Georgia Tech coming off its worst season in 21 years, now would be the time to mix things upâbut Johnson is sticking to his guns.
"Last year I'm hoping was an enigma," Johnson told Sports Illustrated's Zac Ellis. "And not the way it works."
The old-fashioned approach makes the Yellow Jackets unique in a college game so bent on innovation and advancement. But when it struggles it's noticeable.
Illinois
17 of 66
Trending: Up
Lovie Smith's last job at the collegiate level was as Ohio State's defensive backs coach in 1995, and since then he's been in the NFL. But his lack of familiarity with the ins and outs of college football has been cast aside in light of the boost he's bringing to a foundering program.
Just having Smith as a part of Illinois has revitalized a team that's lacked much sizzle for some time. Previous coach Tim Beckman went 12-25 before getting fired prior to the 2015 season, accused of player mistreatment, and interim coach Bill Cubit's 5-7 performance last year didn't do much to inspire confidence.
For now, though, it's all hope-based in Champaign. Smith still has to win, and it could be slow going at first as he re-adjusts to college, but any progress will be positive for the Fighting Illini.
Indiana
18 of 66
Trending: Up
Kevin Wilson managed to get Indiana into its first bowl game since 2007, doing so in a season in which the Hoosiers had a shot to beat Ohio State, Michigan State, Michigan and Iowa...but ended up losing every time.
Totaling six wins despite so many near-misses could be a sign Wilson has turned a corner in Bloomington, or that he's done all he can accomplish.
The 2015 season was somewhat of a crossroads for Indiana, but the team didn't really pick a route and thus is still standing at the fork.
The expectations aren't particularly high for this programânot when basketball is so important (and is coming off a Big Ten title-winning season). If Wilson can put together another winning season he could establish a new standard, even if it's not as high as it would be at other schools.
Iowa
19 of 66
Trending: Up
No, you didn't see Iowa's superb 2015 performance coming. No one did, and many are still unsure how it happened, but there's no denying that for much of last year the Hawkeyes' run of perfection couldn't be ignored.
To go 12-0 during the regular seasonâalbeit against a mediocre schedule that avoided most of the Big Ten's best opponentsâin Kirk Ferentz's 17th season on the job, is a testament to his continued dedication.
The Hawkeyes had wavered between four and eight wins over the previous five years, then suddenly burst through. And while it had the nation's top defensive back (Thorpe Award winner Desmond King), it wasn't a star-laden bunch that was doing the winning.
It will be hard for Iowa to replicate last season's performance this fall, but short of a losing record in 2016, the program should continue to move up.
Iowa State
20 of 66
Trending: Up
Coaching changes can signify upward or downward momentum, depending on the circumstances. In Iowa State's case, Matt Campbell and his youthful exuberance are lifting the Cyclones after several years of steady drops.
Iowa State was 3-9 in 2015, its third straight season with at least nine losses, and not since 2009 has it finished with a winning record. Campbell had no fewer than seven wins in each of his four seasons at Toledo and in that span picked off a handful of FBS opponents, including Iowa State last year. By hiring the 36-year-old away, the Cyclones essentially bought into the adage of âif you can't beat 'em, join 'em.â
Campbell's arrival doesn't mean ISU will suddenly be a lot better, but there's still a renewed sense of optimism in Ames that hadn't been there for a few years.
Kansas
21 of 66
Trending: Down
All you need to do to assess Kansas' momentum is read the headline of Bill Connelly's team preview for SB Nation. Nothing says scraping the bottom of the bucket like, "Kansas will probably win at least one football game in 2016!"
The Jayhawks have the FBS' longest active losing streak, at 15 games, and their last road win came in 2009. Over their last seven seasons their record in Big 12 play is 4-57.
Any progress Kansas makes this season will be massively positive, but when you're so far down to begin with it's hard to gain much satisfaction from the possibility of improving to 1-11 or 2-10.
Kansas State
22 of 66
Trending: Down
Bill Snyder is and will always be a beloved figure in college football, at 76 still going as strong as ever as he patiently paces the Kansas State sidelines in a windbreaker. It's been seven seasons since he came out of retirement to prop up the Wildcats, and in that time he's made a bowl game in all but season and in 2011-12 had back-to-back 10-win teams.
But the hill has been tilting downward for a few years, with last year's team needing to win its final three regular-season games to become bowl-eligible. If anyone other than an active Hall of Fame coach were in charge, a change likely would have already been made, but K-State owes so much to Snyder that it's letting him make the decision when to call it quits.
It took Frank Beamer a while to realize a change was needed at Virginia Tech, and that's a program with better resources than Kansas State.
Kentucky
23 of 66
Trending: Down
Kentucky has opened 4-1 (2015) and 5-1 (2014) the past two seasons, starts that indicated the program might finally be breaking through under Mark Stoops. But then came six straight losses to end 2014 and a 1-6 finish to last year, and any momentum gained from the early results was quickly wiped away.
Not many people associated with the Wildcats expect them to be able to challenge for the top tier in the SEC, at least not anytime soon, but getting into the middle of the pack wasn't too lofty a goal. Stoops has made some progress in his three seasons, but not enough to warrant more time to produce real results.
Kyle Tucker of the Courier-Journal wrote that it's "bowl or bust" for Kentucky in 2016, meaning if Stoops can't get to six wins, a leadership change is possible. The Wildcats are the only team in the SEC not to go to a bowl in any of the past three seasons, their last appearance coming in 2010.
Louisville
24 of 66
Trending: Up
It could have been a disaster, hiring a coach who'd previously been in charge at Louisville but who bolted for a better gig. But so far, Bobby Petrino's second go-around with the Cardinals has been mostly successful and, timed with the program's move from the Big East/American to the ACC, there's forward momentum that looks to be sustainable.
Louisville was desperate to maintain the level that Charlie Strong had established (37-15) before going to Texas, and while Petrino's career path had dipped since leaving Louisville in 2006, his return was a mutually beneficial move. The 2015 team showed tremendous in-season growth, rebounding from an 0-3 start to win eight games.
An emerging star at quarterbackâsophomore Lamar Jacksonâonly adds to the positive vibes coming out of Louisville. The next step will be contending in the ACC's Atlantic Division, home of league powers Clemson and Florida State.
LSU
25 of 66
Trending: Up
Draw LSU's momentum over the years on a graph and it will be strikingly similar to a roller coaster: plenty of sustained rises followed by almost as many swift drops, the sign of a program that has been up and down for several seasons despite winning most of the time.
The Tigers are on another offseason climb, pegged as a Top 10 team by most major outlets. This is in spite of last year's late slide, which saw LSU fall from No. 1 in the initial College Football Playoff rankings to out of them altogether and nearly cost Les Miles his job.
LSU is on track to start out as a Top 15 team in the polls for a sixth straight season, though since 2012 its best finish in the Associated Press rankings is 14th. The coaster is climbing right now, but by the end of 2016 it could again be speeding down the hill.
Maryland
26 of 66
Trending: Down
Moving from the ACC to the Big Ten might end up being a boon for other sports at the school, but so far Maryland isn't seeing much of a reward for this switch in football. The Terrapins are 10-15 overall and 5-11 in conference play in their two seasons of B1G play.
New coach D.J. Durkin brings some optimism to the program, as does an experienced coaching staff stocked with several former college head coaches, but the personnel is still lacking. Maryland signed the seventh-best recruiting class in the conference in February, but that group's impact on 2016 figures to be minimal at best.
Durkin and the Terps will probably have to fall a little more before they can rise.
Miami (Florida)
27 of 66
Trending: Up
Georgia's loss is Miami's gain, as no other program in FBS benefited as much from the offseason coaching carousel as the Hurricanes.
Listless and without direction when it fired Al Golden midway through 2015, Miami suddenly discovered a fully stocked rescue boat when Mark Richt became available in November. It wasted little time snatching up the former 'Canes quarterback, a move that has brought a level of optimism to Coral Gables that hasn't existed in a decade.
"Richtâs work is far from done, but this is a team that could certainly challenge for the Coastal (Division) championship and, at long last, make a trip to the ACC title game," Bleacher Report's Greg Wallace wrote.
Another indicator of how quickly Richt has created positive momentum in Miami: Golden tried for years to get an indoor practice facility, as did Richt at Georgia, both to no avail. Richt was hired in November and already the school appears very close to making this dream a reality.
Michigan
28 of 66
Trending: Up
Michigan's program began to rise even before it officially hired Jim Harbaugh after the 2014 season, and since that initial news conference it's been a steady climb that seemingly has no end.
A breakthrough performance last fall was only part of the fuel to pace ascent, as Harbaugh's flashy recruiting style and relentless spotlight-grabbing has made the Wolverines as high-profile as ever.
This means that, with so much attention and exposure, any struggles would get amplified and could make for a more visible fall. But until that happens, there's nothing but optimism associated with Michigan, which has quickly gone from a punchline to a power in Harbaugh's short tenure.
The Wolverines could be headed for their first preseason Top Five ranking since 2007, a huge jump considering last year marked their first time finishing in the polls since 2012.
Michigan State
29 of 66
Trending: Up
Michigan State may never stop being the âlittle brotherâ to in-state rival Michigan from a perception standpoint, even if the Spartans continue their run of recent on-field superiority that has seen them win seven of the last eight meetings.
Coach Mark Dantonio has loftier goals for his program, which have materialized the last few years in the form of a pair of Big Ten titles and 2015's playoff run.
Long a stepping stone-type program, one that saw previous coaches such as Nick Saban cut their teeth in East Lansing and then move on to bigger things, Dantonio has made MSU a destination instead of a checkpoint. Its outgoing senior class won 36 games the previous three seasons, but what remains includes a solid nucleus of experience and talent that should enable the Spartans to maintain their level of success.
Being a perennial national title contender might not be feasible for MSU, but staying at or near the top of the rankings is.
Minnesota
30 of 66
Trending: Down
Tracy Claeys did yeoman's work to keep Minnesota from falling apart last year after Jerry Kill's health-related resignation. The school did right by making him Kill's permanent replacement, thus maintaining a level of consistency in leadership and approach.
Now Claeys has to show he can build off what Kill had accomplished from 2011-15, or more specifically prevent the progress made from quickly dissipating. The Golden Gophers are a middle-tier Big Ten team at best, one that can slide backward much easier than rise to the next tier.
Mississippi State
31 of 66
Trending: Down
Mississippi State was (briefly) on top of the college football world in 2014, spending five weeks atop the national rankings before fizzling out down the stretch. Additional slippage occurred last year, with the Bulldogs falling from second to fifth in the SEC's West Division, and now they face the uncertain future that comes with no longer having arguably the best player in school history to lean on.
Quarterback Dak Prescott was key to MSU being able to rise, and how it performs after he's left will determine how much it will fall. The last few years might have been as high as the Bulldogs can go.
"I love that maybe people look past us, underestimate us, say they don't have much of a chance this year," Mullen told Bleacher Report's Christopher Walsh. "We kind of like that role, that fits us, how to play with a little bit of a chip on your shoulder and go out there and prove everybody wrong."
Enjoying that role and thriving in it are two different things, however.
Missouri
32 of 66
Trending: Down
Missouri's quick rise to the top of the SEC East was a major surprise in 2013, even more shocking a year later when it repeated as division champs. Reality set in last season, though, and a division that's caught up to the Tigers is ready to leave them in the dust.
Gary Pinkel worked wonders during his 15 seasons in Columbia, and the job he did to get Mizzou to compete in a new league was his masterpiece. Now that he's retired, it will take every ounce of effort from new coach Barry Odom to keep the program from going on a prolonged slide that began with 2015's offensively challenged 5-7 effort.
Mizzou ranked second to last in recruiting in the league in February, which puts a premium on Odom getting the most out of his returners this season.
Nebraska
33 of 66
Trending: Up
Nebraska's move from the Big 12 to the Big Ten took it away from the fertile Texas recruiting ground it had mined so well for so long. Mike Riley has discovered a way to counter that loss, tapping into his West Coast roots and a different talent base in his quest to keep the Cornhuskers relevant.
Dubbing it the "Calibraska movement" to KRVN-TV's Jayson Jorgensen (h/t Rivals.com), Riley continues to put his own stamp on a program that is coming off only its third losing season since 1962. His six wins, coming immediately after the school parted ways with a coach that won at least nine games for seven straight years, wasn't the best way for Riley to start, but he's countered that performance with the recruiting outreach.
Riley is selling recruits on the Nebraska community, not just the football team, and that's paying off. Now it just has to translate into more wins.
North Carolina
34 of 66
Trending: Up
The 2015 season was a major breakthrough for North Carolina, winning 11 consecutive games at one point and reaching the program's first ACC title game. Larry Fedora's fourth season with the Tar Heels brought the results that were hoped for when he was hired in 2012.
Building on this for more than one season is what takes UNC from a one-hit wonder to a school with a winning reputation. The Heels haven't had consecutive years of nine-plus wins since 1996-97, but bringing back 14 starters is a good foundation to build from.
North Carolina is a state that many outside programs enjoy dipping into for recruitsâthe top 13 players in the 2016 class signed with Alabama, Auburn, Clemson, Florida State, Notre Dame Ohio State or Tennesseeâand being able to keep that talent home is the next step. The Heels currently have commitments from five of the state's 10 best 2017 prospects.
North Carolina State
35 of 66
Trending: Down
Hiring a successful mid-major coach to run a power program is a risky proposition, one that occasionally produces results but more often fails to do so. North Carolina State saw some early returns from Dave Doeren, with eight wins in his second season, but his 2015 team underachieved and now could be in line for a backslide.
The Wolfpack are 6-18 in ACC play under Doeren, topping out at 3-5 the last two years with nothing better than a fourth-place showing in the Atlantic Division. Soft nonconference scheduling has enabled them to be bowl-eligible, but anything more than that will require in-league success, which to this point hasn't happened.
Doeren won 23 games in two years at Northern Illinois, a tally he might not get to by the end of his fourth season with NC State.
Northwestern
36 of 66
Trending: Up
Northwestern is coming off its second 10-win season in the last four years, but in between were a pair of 5-7 campaigns. We'll find out this fall if the Wildcats learned from their past or are destined to repeat it.
Pat Fitzgerald weathered that two-year storm to produce last year's breakout team, the nucleus of which is back for 2016. But that was also the case after the previous 10-3 campaign, and Northwestern started the following season 4-0 before falling apart.
We've gone with a âtrending upâ designation based on the ability of Northwestern to rebound from consecutive lackluster seasons. Getting to double digits again might not happen, but it's more likely than finishing below .500.
Notre Dame
37 of 66
Trending: Up
Notre Dame is a nationally renowned program with one of the most storied histories in college football. Yet the fact remains it hasn't won a national championship since 1988 and outside of the 2012 season a legitimate title shot hasn't been the norm.
But under Brian Kelly, the Fighting Irish are in the midst of their longest stretch of overall success since the early 1990s. After Lou Holtz stepped down after the 1996 season, no other coach has managed to avoid performance valleys until Kelly came along, and during his tenure Notre Dame has earned the attention it regularly gets.
Even with only nine starters back from a year ago, the depth and talent acquiredâand then developedâthrough recruiting has reduced the chances of year-over-year regression for the first time in nearly two decades.
Ohio State
38 of 66
Trending: Up
Here's the long and short of what Urban Meyer has accomplished in four years at Ohio State: Fifty wins against just four losses, five Top 10 recruiting classes (including the 2016 edition, which came in at fourth overall), a 32-2 record against Big Ten opponents and a national championship.
But above all that, here's the most telling indication that the Buckeyes are moving up on a seemingly endless track: Despite losing 15 starters, most of whom just got drafted, their 12-1 odds to win the national title (per Odds Shark) is tied with LSU for fourth-best overall.
OSU is officially in reload-not-rebuild territory, as true a sign as any the direction it's heading.
Oklahoma
39 of 66
Trending: Up
A great many in the media world predicted Oklahoma's impending demise at this point a year agoâcount yours truly among that groupâwhen another disappointing performance in 2014 was followed by some seemingly desperate changes. Bob Stoops overhauled his coaching staff and scrapped his offensive scheme, moves meant to spark some life in the Sooners' program.
Mission accomplished. Oklahoma won the Big 12, its revamped Air Raid attack producing strong numbers, and it reached the playoff. Just as integral: Stoops seemed re-energized, not someone who was on his way downward.
Oklahoma has struggled to meet expectations most years this decade, but after the way it came together in 2015 it's hard not to think some lessons have been learned.
Oklahoma State
40 of 66
Trending: Down
Oklahoma State was 10-0 in mid-November, right in the middle of the playoff hunt as well as the crowded race for the Big 12 title. That was followed by three consecutive losses, by a combined 73 points, each more humbling than the one before.
That's a tough burden to carry into the offseason, when hope and optimism are what tend to stand out. And it's why the Cowboys are in jeopardy of making the start of 2015 seem like the anomaly, since it came after a 7-6 season in 2014 when they finished seventh in the league.
OK State has won 10 or more games in four of the last six seasons, but the conference has gotten tougher at the top and it's going to be difficult to keep pace with the Baylors and TCUs in addition to rival Oklahoma.
Ole Miss
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Everything seems to be "coming up Milhouse" for Ole Miss, where even an ongoing NCAA investigation can't seem to stifle the Rebels' upward momentum.
Hugh Freeze has improved the team's win total every year he's been there, and the 2015 team was the first in 12 years to get to 10 wins. The Rebels capped their big season with their first Sugar Bowl appearance in 46 and followed that up with a recruiting class that ranked sixth nationally.
The Rebels have become a real player, both in the SEC and on a national scale, during Freeze's time in Oxford. It's been a long time since anyone else has done that.
Oregon
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Oregon was in the first ever title game produced through the College Football Playoff for the 2014 season. It had the Heisman Trophy winner Marcus Mariota at quarterback and was a mainstay atop the ultra-important fashion rankings, compliments of its never-ending supply of uniform combinations.
Less than two years later, only the last of those things remains. The Ducks still reign supreme with their threads, but how good they look isn't making up for how we'll they're playing.
It's only been one season of actual games, but 2015 showed cracks in the facade that have continued to grow. The Ducks lost four games last year, including twice at home, and went into the offseason with a sour feeling after blowing a 31-0 lead to TCU in the Alamo Bowl.
And now Dakota Prukop is in line to be the second FCS-level graduate transfer to start at QB, not something you'd expect to happen at a top-flight program.
Oregon State
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Gary Andersen had his reasons for leaving what seemed like a good thing at Wisconsin for Oregon State. So, too, did Mike Riley in walking away from what he'd built in Corvallis to try something different at Nebraska.
Riley is looking like the big winner in that part of the 2014-15 offseason coaching carousel, while Andersen has his hands full trying to build up a Beavers program that is plummeting.
Oregon State's 2-10 mark last year was its worst since going 1-10 in 1995, its Pac-12 losing streak at 11 games. Andersen had one of the least experienced teams in FBS in his first season, which explains some of the dip, but not all of it, since North Division rival Washington was even younger and went 7-6 with a bowl victory.
Penn State
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James Franklin is to be commended for navigating Penn State out of NCAA-sanctions purgatory, a scenario that could have just as easily crippled the program. But he's also had a fair amount of talent to work with, both that he inherited and has recruited, thus making consecutive 7-6 seasons not as impressive upon further review.
Unfortunately, the Nittany Lions just can't seem to move past the Joe Paterno era, specifically the scandal involving former assistant Jerry Sandusky. New allegations dating back to the early 1970s continue to place PSU under a dark cloud.
Franklin is doing his best to move the program away from its troubled past, and admirably so, though that's soon going to require more than just finishing in the middle of the Big Ten's East Division.
Pittsburgh
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When Pat Narduzzi coaches his first game in 2016, he'll already be the second-longest tenured coach at Pittsburgh this decade. Since Dave Wannstedt resigned in December 2010, the Panthers have had a steady string of leadership changes, with several interim coaches and none who stayed more than three seasons.
There's no guarantee Narduzzi won't go somewhere else eventually, but for now he's brought stability to a program that's been in desperate need of it. Winning eight games (and being ranked for the first time in five years) in 2015 also helped.
It may take a while still before Pitt becomes a real contender in the ACC, but the only way that will ever happen is if the coaching uncertainty dissipates.
Purdue
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For the last few years, SB Nation's Bill Connelly has championed the idea of establishing a relegation system in college football like what you see in European soccer. Though it will never happen, it's fun to see how conferences would change year to year based on the dropping of bad teams and promotion of good ones.
Unless you're one of those getting relegated, of which Purdue would have been every time.
While the rest of the Big Ten has been mostly on an upswing the last several seasons, the Boilermakers have held firm to their spot at the bottom of the league with no indication that will change anytime soon.
Under Darrell Hazell, Purdue is 6-30 overall and 2-22 in the Big Ten. He somehow survived last year's major overhaul of head coachesâperhaps benefiting from the fact four other Big Ten schools made changesâbut figures to be one of the first to fall during or after the 2016 season unless big improvement happens.
Rutgers
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Rutgers was an attractive addition to the Big Ten because of its television market, but ideally the conference would like to see that program also have some success on the field. So far the Scarlet Knights have had to take some steps back before they can begin to move forward.
New coach Chris Ash provides a fresh start after last year's chaotic season, one that saw numerous players get arrested and/or dismissed and previous coach Kyle Flood suspended for meddling with a player's grades. That change isn't likely to translate into on-field improvements anytime soon, though.
Aside from the ratings they bring, the Scarlet Knights have also provided another benefit since joining the league in 2014: that being an opportunity for their home league opponents to reach New Jersey's solid recruiting turf. That's great for the rest of the Big Tenânot as much for Rutgers.
South Carolina
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The Steve Spurrier era was arguably the high point in South Carolina football history, but it didn't end well. The Gamecocks were trending down toward the end and then the bottom fell out in 2015, even before losing to FCS school The Citadel.
Now South Carolina turns to Will Muschamp, whom Bleacher Report's Barrett Sallee called a "risky hire" in the winter. It could fail royally, but so far the results have been positive.
Muschamp scrambled to bring in a Top 25 recruiting class, bolstered by some promising passing prospects. This bodes well for South Carolina's future, though not immediately.
Stanford
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It's been quite a run at Stanford, one that Jim Harbaugh started from nothing and which David Shaw has taken to new levels. It's also one that becomes more and more difficult to maintainâespecially when a team has to replace half its starters including the winningest quarterback in program history.
As great an individual all-around player as Christian McCaffrey is, he can't do it all, but that's the direction the Cardinal are heading in 2016.
Jon Wilner of the San Jose Mercury News has Stanford eighth in the Pac-12 on his list of "quarterback comfort levels," and they're starting over on defense as well.
Shaw has done great work at Stanford, making three Rose Bowls and winning at least 11 games in four of the last five years. But unless a slew of unproven players come through, the Cardinal are heading for a bit of a slide.
Syracuse
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To put it plainly, Dino Babers has won the offseason. That won't mean much in a few months if it doesn't translate into wins, but for now he's doing everything right as far as drawing interest in and bringing excitement to Syracuse football.
Currently on a barnstorming tour of upstate New York, Babers on Wednesday expressed his desire, via Matthew Fairburn of Syracuse.com, to stop facing Notre Dame in New Jerseyâ"Next time we're playing them at the damn Dome!"âand motivated current and future Orange players to strive to wear the program's famed No. 44 jersey. This has continued a trend since he was hired in December in which he's getting the fanbase fired up.
Babers has won at his previous two stops, Eastern Illinois and Bowling Green, and is now making his biggest leap yet. It makes sense to take this approach, and without any results to contradict him it's working.
TCU
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TCU has had some down years under Gary Patterson, but by and large his time in charge has seen mostly positive gains. The first gains helped get the Horned Frogs into the Big 12 and the latest surge has made them a player in that league.
Don't expect Patterson to become complacent, not now. And thus don't expect TCU to slack off just when it's gotten to the top.
The injury-plagued 2015 season could have been one where the Frogs packed it in and allowed a built-in excuse to define them. Instead, they fought through the struggles and made that 11-2 team look almost as good as the Big 12 co-champions from the year before.
Tennessee
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Poll a room about Tennessee football and you're apt to get as many assessments of "underrated" as you will "overhyped." The truth falls somewhere in the middle, in that the Volunteers are right where coach Butch Jones hoped they'd be at this point in his tenure.
Tennessee hasn't had a player drafted in the past two years yet have gone from 5-7 in 2013 to 9-4 this past season. The slow starts to the last two fallsâfollowed each time by late surgesâare exactly how a team that's growing in talent and experience should perform, and are indicative of one in line for its true breakthrough in 2016.
Not surprisingly, ESPN's Travis Haney has Tennessee sixth on his list of college teams with the most 2017 draft talent.
Texas
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Momentum can come in various forms as well as increments, not just through wins and big leaps or falls. Texas is playing the slow game, despite the impatience of its fanbase, improving the culture and the talent base first and hoping that produces victories later on.
In this day of instant gratification, though, that's going to mean something tangible has to occur in 2016 or Charlie Strong might not be able to see his plan through. Strong has won 11 games in his two seasons, the fewest Texas has recorded in a two-year span since the early 1990sâat the start of the short-lived John Mackovic era. His three recruiting classes have all been in the top 16 nationally, though, and those prospects now make up the vast majority of the roster.
Right now it takes a magnifying glass to observe the Longhorns' slow rise, but not for much longer if it's going to happen under Strong.
Texas A&M
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If Texas A&M's time in the SEC were a network television program, it would be Who Wants to Be a Millionaire. It debuted to absurdly high ratings and was the talk of the town but couldn't keep that pace, slipping further and further each year.
The Aggies aren't in jeopardy of being downgraded to syndication, but their numbers also aren't heading in the right direction. And continued off-the-field distractions are making a turnaround that much harder to accomplish.
From 11-2 in 2012 to 8-5 the past two seasons, it's been a steady drop for A&M. Top recruits have transferred and now future prospects are decommitting, some as the result of ill-advised assistant coach Twitter rants.
Texas Tech
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Texas Tech is fun to watch, at least when it's on offense, something that Kliff Kingsbury has carried over from his days playing quarterback for the Red Raiders under Mike Leach. Its defense, on the other hand...
College football is an offense-driven game, there's no question of that, but sustained success requires at least some semblance of defensive ability. Texas Tech allowed 43.6 points per game in 2015 and is one of three FBS schools (along with Eastern Michigan and SMU) to allow 40-plus per game for consecutive seasons.
Programs like California, North Carolina and Washington had strong years last fall thanks in part to improvements on defense without compromising their offensive ability. Texas Tech would be wise to follow this blueprint.
UCLA
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It may have lost to crosstown rival USC last year, ending a three-game win streak in the series, but one game doesn't change the direction UCLA has been heading under Jim Mora. Since 2012 the Bruins have won 37 games, their best four-year run since 1985-88, and though this has only resulted in one division title, it's still a major upgrade from previous regimes.
UCLA's rise has come at the perfect time, capitalizing on USC's near-constant turmoil to first catch up to, and in many ways pass, the Trojans. Mora has improved the recruiting profile as well as the on-field product, and with Los Angeles now becoming a three-team market (thanks to the NFL's return this fall), UCLA is poised to remain relevant.
The next step is being able to push through and win on a national level, but that first required the groundwork.
USC
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Say what you will about soap operas; there's a reason they continue to be made year after year. They hook you in and make it hard to turn away no matter how unrealistic the storyline, because you've become invested.
So it has become for USC football, which is fitting for a program that resides not far from Hollywood. Despite a seemingly never-ending supply of talent, the Trojans somehow can't stop being interesting for things other than their games.
USC is hoping Clay Helton can finally mark the end of its recent coaching uncertainty, that his strong work as the interim coach last season will continue as the permanent guy. Losing his first two games after the interim tag was lifted didn't help, though neither does opening the Trojans' first full year under Helton against defending national champion Alabama.
From a strictly talent standpoint, USC is as good as ever. Recruiting has never been the problem, being able to convert that into recent results has.
Utah
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Utah reached new heights in 2015, its best season since moving to the Pac-12. It's a great year to build off, though preferably with a better group of returning talent. The Utes bring back 13 starters but that doesn't include four-year starting quarterback Travis Wilson or workhorse rusher Devontae Booker, among others.
Kyle Whittingham made slow but steady improvement during Utah's first few years of Pac-12 play but faces possibly his biggest season yet. It's one thing to get to where the Utes were a year ago; it's another to stay at that level.
Whittingham is tied for the fourth-longest active run at an FBS school, so he's got some leeway to go through a minor rebuild this season. He's earned it after getting Utah to this point.
Vanderbilt
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Even the best leagues have to have some bottom-feeders, and Vanderbilt has firmly held this spot in the SEC for the last two years. The Commodores won two league games last year after going 0-8 in Derek Mason's first season, but by and large 2014 and 2015 were mirror images
And not in a good way.
The struggles Vandy has had the last two years only enhance what previous coach James Franklin accomplished in Nashville.
Virginia
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Virginia has been on a near-constant downswing for a decade, with just two winning seasons in the last 11, and something had to change. That usually starts with the head coach, and the Cavaliers made a huge move in that area by luring Bronco Mendenhall away from BYU.
That was the easy part. Now comes finding out if Mendenhall can do for the Wahoos what he did for the Cougars, where he won 99 games from 2005-15.
Virginia Tech
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It's never easy replacing a legend, something Florida State's Jimbo Fisher and many others can attest to. Justin Fuente is in the same boat as he succeeds Frank Beamer at Virginia Tech, though he's coming on at the right time.
The Hokies have been slowly sliding for several years, last posting double-digit wins in 2011, and in three of the past four seasons they needed to win their regular-season finale just to be bowl-eligible. This recent dip helps lessen the initial expectations Fuente is facing and also makes any improvements more noticeable.
"This is the best hire of the coaching carousel for 2015-16," Athlon Sports' Steven Lassan wrote in February.
Fuente doesn't have to rebuild at Virginia Tech, like he did in turning Memphis from a 2-10 team in 2011 to one that won 19 combined games in 2014-15, but that ability to win quickly was a main reason the Hokies sought him out.
Wake Forest
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Wake Forest played in the 2006 ACC title game and it's been almost all downhill since then. Last year's second straight 3-9 record ran the streak to seven consecutive losing seasons.
The Demon Deacons are the smallest school, in terms of enrollment, among power-conference teams, though this shouldn't impact play on the field. Its effect comes in the lack of fan support, as only Duke had a lower attendance among power schools in 2015.
This is one of the hardest places to win among the power leagues, as Dave Clawson has learned since coming over from Bowling Green before the 2014 season.
Washington
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Strong hype and high expectations lumped on 7-6 teams are normally reserved for those from the SEC, but Washington is joining that group for 2015. The Huskies came on strong last year with a very young roster and, combined with coach Chris Petersen's track record, they've become a trendy pick in the Pac-12 and maybe a dark-horse playoff contender.
"I've been bullish on the Huskies for awhile," wrote Fox Sports' Bruce Feldman, who has Washington 13th in his latest preseason rankings. "I like the young talent Chris Petersen has assembled."
The Pac-12's North is wide open with Oregon and Stanford no longer as dominant as in past years. Now we get to see if Washington can capitalize.
Washington State
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Arguably the most isolated power-conference program in the country, Washington State is able to toil in relative anonymity (at least outside the Pac-12) when it struggles. When the Cougars excel it's almost as under-the-radar, though less so with eccentric coach Mike Leach in charge.
Leach has yo-yoed during his first four seasons with WSU, winning three games apiece in 2012 and 2014 with a 6-7 mark in 2013 before last year's 9-4 performance. The pieces are in place for the Cougars to have another strong season, possibly good enough to make their first Rose Bowl since 2002.
West Virginia
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At the time West Virginia's move to the Big 12 was announced, then-President James P. Clements called it âa perfect fitâ for the university despite being hundreds of miles away from every other team in the conference. The Mountaineers football program is still trying to find the new league.
A 15-21 record in Big 12 play isn't likely what was envisioned, with no finish better than a tie for fourth place in 2014.
West Virginia had five players taken in last month's NFL draft, tied with TCU for second most in the league, but developing pros and producing wins aren't valued the same.
Wisconsin
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Wisconsin might not be part of college football's elite or a program that's regularly in the hunt for national titles, but that doesn't mean it hasn't been wildly successful for a long time. The Badgers have posted 14 straight winning seasons, trailing only Florida State (34), Oklahoma (17) and LSU (16) in terms of consecutive above-.500 seasons, and they've had at least eight wins in 12 of those years.
Somehow, though, a school this consistent has had to hire new coaches twice this decade. First Bret Bielema left for Arkansas after 2012, and two years later Gary Andersen opted to go to Oregon State, succeeded by Paul Chryst.
Being able to maintain that winning level despite changes in leadership is a key ingredient in Wisconsin's upward momentum.
