Bold 2026 MLB Trade Deadline Predictions with 2 Months to Go
It sometimes feels like Major League Baseball's 2026 trade deadline on August 3 is still a long way off.
Remember Opening Day, though?
That game on Netflix with the first-ever regular-season ABS challenge in which the Yankees blanked the Giants 7-0 in an early indication of how bad things might go this season in San Francisco?
That is now officially further behind us than the trade deadline is ahead of us.
And with about 50 games per team remaining until the grand ol' swap meet kicks into high gear, we've got a new batch of bold predictions, ranging from impending fire sales to a prediction on where Tarik Skubal will be finishing his final season before free agency.
In total, there are four bold trade deadline predictions from each league, with teams presented in no particular order aside from oscillating between NL and AL.
San Francisco Has the Biggest Fire Sale
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While wallowing in mediocrity from 2022-24, the San Francisco Giants just kind of did nothing at the trade deadline year after year.
However, since Buster Posey replaced Farhan Zaidi as the president of baseball operations, they've been much more...volatile.
Last June, Posey pulled the plug on LaMonte Wade Jr. and then made that blockbuster deal for Rafael Devers a week later. When it didn't work out, they pivoted to a moderate deadline sale of Tyler Rogers, Mike Yastrzemski and Camilo Doval.
Without so much as a close runner-up, the most substantial trade to transpire thus far this season was San Francisco shipping Patrick Bailey's Gold Glove (and hapless bat) to the Guardians in early May for a pitching prospect.
And if Posey so chooses, the Giants could have quite the fire sale over the course of the next two months, as they could be headed for more than 100 losses for what would be the first time in franchise history.
Because of the sheer amount of money still owed to each of them, it's unlikely they'll move any of Matt Chapman, Willy Adames or Devers.
But Robbie Ray and Luis Arraez finishing the season elsewhere as impending free agents is likely. Same goes for Tyler Mahle if he can start providing any value when he returns from his hamstring strain.
Harrison Bader is signed through 2027, but could be one of the better outfielders available, pending his recovery from plantar fasciitis. He has played for multiple teams in three of the past four seasons, so it's practically tradition at this point.
The big one to monitor, though, is Logan Webb.
It would be a stunner, for sure. Webb has been their ace in each of the past five seasons and is signed forย two more years at a team-friendly $23 million in 2027 and $24 million in 2028.
If they're actually trying to accomplish something other than saving a bit of money at the deadline, though, they could get back one heck of a prospect haul for Webb.
White Sox Go on a Shopping Spree
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Usually, when a team starts to show some signs of life after a multi-year rebuild, that first trade deadline as a potential buyer is relatively uneventful. Shipping out prospects for rentals at the beginning of the proverbial window of opportunity is a fine way to ensure it isn't a very long window.
However, emerging from several years in the basement isn't typically fueled by the signing of a two-year contract with one of the best home run hitters in the world.
And if the 32-27 White Sox don't make a serious push to reach the 2026 postseasonโespecially in the AL Central, where the Tigers and Royals appear to be dead, and where the Guardians never do any legitimate spending at the deadlineโthen what was the point in signing Munetaka Murakami in the first place?
Their top prospects figure to be untouchable.
What the White Sox can do, though, is eat some money.
Their Opening Day 26-man payroll was $86M, but their average Opening Day payroll between 2022 and 2023 was $187M. And unless you want to count the $2M buyouts they'll owe Seranthony Dominguez and Anthony Kay for their mutual options in 2028, they presently do not have a single contract figure on the books beyond next season.
It's why I've suggested several times in the past two months that if Mike Trout is getting traded anywhere, the White Sox might make the most sense.
Or if they have an opportunity to add an established-but-pricy starting pitcher to a rotation presently devoid of household names, the dollar cost shouldn't be the problem.
Maybe they crater between now and the deadline. That upcoming 12-game stretch against the Phillies, Braves, Dodgers and Yankees certainly could prove deadly. But if they're still in the hunt in two months' time, look for the White Sox to be one of the most aggressive buyers.
Milwaukee Makes a Big Splash as a Buyer
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Milwaukee has been to the postseason in seven of the past eight years and fell just one game shy of October in the lone exception to that rule.
In other words, it's not exactly breaking news that the Brewers have one of the best records in baseball and figure to be in a buying position at the trade deadline.
Milwaukee actually doing something substantial to improve its roster at the deadline, though?
Well now, that would be a deviation from the norm, because their biggest summer splash in recent years was when they traded away Josh Hader ahead of the 2022 deadline.
But after scoring four runs in the process of getting swept by the Dodgers in last year's NLCS, could this be the year the Brew Crew switches things up and goes for broke?
They certainly have the prospect capital necessary to swing big, landing at No. 3 in Joel Reuter's farm system rankings in late May. And with major holes at third base, shortstop and several spots of the starting rotation, there's no question they could stand to gain from a few upgrades.
They won't trade away Jesรบs Made or Luis Peรฑa, but they do have a handful of fringe top 100 prospects who could be the main attraction moving out in a minor blockbuster for someone like Houston's Isaac Paredes or Minnesota's Joe Ryan.
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Tigers Burn It Down
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No, Kevin McGonigle isn't going anywhere. Riley Greene and Dillon Dingler might be just about untouchable, too.
Aside from that?
Gentlemen, start your offers.
Tarik Skubal is, of course, the Big Kahuna here, and we are starting to believe at this point that it is more likely he will be on the move than not. The two-time Cy Young winner is nearing a return from his elbow surgery, but it's likely too little, too late for a Tigers team that has lost 21 of its last 25 games. And there's bound to be some team willing to part with one heck of a prospect platter in order to get Skubal for the stretch run.
Casey Mize is also an impending free agent who will be highly coveted. He is currently on the IL for a second time already this season, but he has a 2.27 ERA (and 2.38 FIP) in nine starts thus far in 2026, this after he was named an All-Star in 2025. Could be a solid No. 2 or No. 3 postseason starter in a lot of rotations.
Gleyber Torres is another rental who could be quite the trade chip. He has been out for a month with an oblique injury and wasn't slugging worth a darn in April, but if he can re-establish that .389 on-base percentage from his first 32 games, there are plenty of teams out there desperate for guys who can get on base.
And those are just the clearly desirable rentals.
They also have Justin Verlander and Jack Flaherty headed for free agency, as well as Framber Valdez, Kyle Finnegan and Drew Anderson among their stockpile of eight players with one year of team control remaining. (Though, Valdez's big salary and his player option for 2028 might make him just about untradeable.)
This season hasn't gone anywhere close to plan for the Tigers. But in what figures to be quite the seller's market, they could make out like bandits.
Phillies Acquire the Best Outfielder(s) Available
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It's difficult to say at this point who will be the best outfielder on the trade block.
It could be either Byron Buxton or Mike Trout, if either one is willing to waive his no trade clause and if either one's current team is willing to part with him.
Maybe it's Riley Greene if the Tigers are throwing in the towel for the foreseeable future. Or Boston's Jarren Duran, regardless of whether the Red Sox are buying or selling.
It might be Colorado's Mickey Moniak, although he needs to make it back from his ankle injury and resume mashing like he did through the first seven weeks of the season before anyone would be willing to give up much to get him.
Whomever ends up being the most noteworthy outfielder traded, though, our early assumption is that said player will become a member of the Phillies.
They already have the fourth-highest payroll in baseball, $70M clear of the competitive balance tax threshold. And aside from likely untouchable top prospect Aidan Miller, they don't have a whole lot to offer from down on the farm.
However, where there's a will, there's a way. And they will find a way to upgrade a lineup in which only three players (Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper and Brandon Marsh) currently have an OPS+ greater than 76.
With the likes of Trea Turner, JT Realmuto, Bryson Stott and Alec Bohm, the Phillies are presumably just going to cross their fingers and hope they start hitting like they have hit for them over the past three seasons. But if they can bring in a quality outfielder to take Adolis Garcรญa's spot in the lineup/field, that would be huge.
And, heck, if Justin Crawford doesn't start hitting like he did over the past three seasons in the minors, the Phillies might even trade for the top two outfielders on the block, depending on how things are looking two months from now.
Red Sox Double Down, Acquire Infield Bat(s)
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Ten series into the Chad Tracy chapter of Boston Red Sox managerial history, things aren't going much better than when they fired Alex Cora in late April. Boston has lost seven of those series and has an overall losing record while continuing to languish in dead last in the AL East.
Nevertheless, the 25-33 Red Sox remain well within shouting distance of a wild card spot in the lackluster American League, a mere three games behind the Blue Jays for the No. 6 seed. If they had to pick a lane right nowโespecially with the hope that both Garrett Crochet and Roman Anthony should be back from the IL before too much longerโthey would almost certainly be buying.
Besides, they didn't include an "Eject" button when they constructed this year's roster.
Boston has just three unrestricted free agents at the end of this season, and no one is exactly going to be calling them day after day about Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Danny Coulombe or Patrick Sandoval. (Sonny Gray is also headed for free agency, but has a $10M buyout on a $30M mutual option that might make it difficult to move him.)
So, they might as well go for it and make some effort to improve their thoroughly underwhelming infield situation.
Luis Arraez is the low-hanging fruit as a free agent-to-be on a Giants team with a .390 winning percentage. He could be Boston's second baseman for the stretch run with Marcelo Mayer moving back to third base.
They could also target Oswald Peraza from the woebegone Angels. He entered 2026 as a career .189 hitter, but he has really found something this season. He still has three years of arbitration eligibility remaining, though, and might not be readily available.
The big fish is Washington's CJ Abrams, except the Nationals have won 20 of their last 33 and maybe won't be deadline sellers for the first time since 2020? With that pitching staff, though, it still feels like fools' gold. At any rate, none of the forecasting models even have Washington at 20 percent odds of making the postseason. And if Abrams is available, Boston may well be his next home.
New York Mets Get Stuck in No-Man's Land, Have Rare Quiet Deadline
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During Steve Cohen's time as the majority owner of the New York Mets, they have typically steered headlong into one lane or the other at the trade deadline.
Last year, they brought in Ryan Helsley, Gregory Soto and Tyler Rogers in hopes of bolstering their bullpen. They also acquired Cedric Mullins, parting with a combined total of 11 prospects for those four rentals.
The previous summer, they traded for Paul Blackburn, Jesse Winker, Huascar Brazobรกn and Ryne Stanek.
But the biggest one was the fire sale in 2023, when they unloaded Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander and several other veterans in the name of turning the page to a brighter tomorrow.
In each of those years, though, it was kind of clear what they had to do. They were leading the NL East when they started buying last summer. They were basically in a four-way tie for the three wild card spots at the 2024 deadline. And they were seven games back for the No. 6 seed when they threw in the towel in 2023.
This year might not be so simple.
The Mets are already looking at an all-in cost north of $500M for this season. And in their tax bracket, every additional dollar spent effectively adds $2.10 to their tab. Maybe that does nothing to slow them down, or maybe it forces them to think twice about buying.
Conversely, even if they wanted to sell, the Mets don't have a ton to offer aside from Freddy Peralta and a few left-handed relievers.
Maybe they could get something for Luke Weaver, too, but they are basically drowning in contracts that nobody would want and would have to retain the vast majority of those salaries to drum up any interest.
If they bottom out and enter the deadline 10 or more games out of the playoff picture, then, sure, they'll do some selling and probably send president of baseball operations David Stearns packing shortly thereafter. Or if they catch fire over the course of their next 50 games and appear destined to reach the postseason, spending almost $20M for about 10 Tarik Skubal starts might land at the top of their to-do list.
But our prediction is that they'll land in betweenโsomewhere around 56-57 overall and 3-5 games back for the No. 6 spotโand will just let it ride with what they've got, much to the chagrin of Mets fans.
Seattle Mariners Win Tarik Skubal Sweepstakes
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When the Tarik Skubal trade rumors first escalated about 10 days ago from pipe dreams to "you know what, they might actually do it," USA Today's Bob Nightengale reported that the four teams that rival executives believe to have both the funds and the prospects to make it happen are the Dodgers, Yankees, Blue Jays and Padres.
If we're talking bold predictions here, though, we'd better avoid those four possible landing spots.
Well, why not the Seattle Mariners?
The urgency to swing big for a rental is surely there. They made major investments/trades this past offseason, and this is their last year with Randy Arozarena and J.P. Crawford, as well as their next-to-last season with Logan Gilbert. The window won't stay open forever.
Moreover, they undeniably have the prospect capital necessary to make it happen, boasting one of the best farm systems in the business for several years running.
The M's do already have a solid rotation. However, not having a true ace hurt them big time in the 2025 ALCS against the Blue Jays, and it is already looking like an issue again for this coming fall.
The money might be the biggest holdup, as Seattle had its highest ever Opening Day payroll and would need to embrace a 40-man tax payroll north of $200M if it adds Skubal without trimming elsewhere.
But his prorated cost if acquired at the trade deadline is $9.4M. It would be outrageous to balk at that figure when it gives you a real chance to not only make but win the World Series for the first time in franchise history.
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