MLB Bold Predictions for Final 2 Months of 2026 Season
With the MLB trade deadline now more than a week in the past, the 2026 season is only getting deeper into its stretch run. And yet, the long-held notion that you can't predict baseball still applies.
So, who's up for trying to predict some baseball?
Ahead are eight bold predictions for the remainder of the 2026 campaign. Four concern individual players and awards races. The other four concern the playoff races in the American League and National League. It's that simple.
But to show we're not bluffing on "bold," let's start with how much Paul Skenes stinks.
Paul Skenes Will Finish with an ERA Over 4.00
1 of 8
Why It's a Hot Take
Paul Skenes' ERA currently sits at 3.96, so he's already almost there. Heck, his ERA could climb over 4.00 as soon as Tuesday.
Nonetheless, skepticism as to whether he is truly this mediocre is warranted. And not just because he entered this season with an all-time-great 1.96 ERA to show for his first 55 starts.
The massive disparity between Skenes' actual mark and his expected ERA of 3.01 hints that he's been wildly unlucky. There's still time for Lady Luck to come to his rescue, and it shouldn't hurt his cause that the Pittsburgh Pirates have the NL's third-easiest remaining schedule.
Why It Will Happen
All that being said, Skenes has been struggling for long enough (5.20 ERA since May 17) that questions about what the heck is going on are unavoidable.
And by now, it's no secret that his velocity is not what it once was. And hitters are taking advantage, teeing off on Skenes to such a degree that his average exit velocity has steadily risen from 85.4 mph in April to 90.7 mph in his first start this month.
Has there truly been some bad luck along the way? Well, sure. But it's also not as if the Pirates are a good defensive team, as they rank in the bottom third of the league with -14 Outs Above Average.
Jacob Misiorowski Will Get to 300 Strikeouts
2 of 8
Why It's a Hot Take
Is this a hot take, though? Didn't Jacob Misiorowski just become the second-fastest pitcher to record 200 strikeouts in a season?
He did, but that's by innings and not by time. The Milwaukee Brewers have been careful not to overwork their ace. "The Miz" has made eight of his 22 starts on at least six days rest. He also sat for a couple weeks because of arm fatigue.
Per FanGraphs' calculations, the flamethrowing righty is projected to finish with 278 strikeouts. Still a lot, to be sure, but there's quite a bit of daylight between there and 300.
Why It Will Happen
Let's say Misiorowski has eight starts left. If so, he would need to average 12 strikeouts in those eight starts to get the 96 he needs to reach 300.
It seems outrageous—but also doable.
At 40.6 percent, he currently has the highest strikeout rate ever for an ERA title qualifier in a non-shortened season. And believe it or not, it's trending up. He's come out of the All-Star break with a 45.7 K% in four starts, which is closer-caliber levels of excellence that most starters never come close to.
Matt Olson Will Claim the MLB Home Run Lead
3 of 8
Why It's a Hot Take
This is another one of those borderline-lukewarm takes. Matt Olson has 34 home runs, which puts him just one shy of the shared MLB lead between Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Schwarber.
Talk about a tough race, though.
Schwarber's pedigree speaks for itself, and he busted out of a recent funk in a big way with a two-homer outburst on Sunday. And while Alvarez has a career peak of "only" 37 homers, the four-time All-Star has never been more locked-in than he is this season. He leads all hitters in all three triple-slash categories.
Why It Will Happen
Ah, but Alvarez has been slowing down a touch since the All-Star break. Whereas he slugged .633 with 31 homers in the first half, he's at .585 and four homers in the second half.
He's thus on the opposite track from Olson, who has come out of the break slugging .609 with nine homers. And the shoe fits in this case, as he has historically been a stronger finisher than beginner throughout his career.
Also, dude's been there and done that as a major league home run leader. Though he got a little lost in the 20-homer wilderness in 2024 and 2025, it was only three years ago that he slammed 54 homers to lead MLB.
.png?w=2560 "MLB Power Rankings")
Pete Crow-Armstrong Will Bury Shohei Ohtani in the NL MVP Race
4 of 8
Why It's a Hot Take
This is going against the grain of MLB.com's most recent MVP polling, which had Shohei Ohtani firmly in the lead for the NL award over Pete Crow-Armstrong.
Even if he doesn't return to the mound by the end of the season, the 1.79 ERA that Ohtani posted in 14 starts still counts toward his overall value. Otherwise, 99.99 percent of hitters would love to have a .937 OPS and 26 homers in a "down" year.
There's also the sneaking suspicion that counting on Ohtani not to come through in any kind of race is a bad idea. For instance, his 1.211 OPS for his last 12 games pretty much coincides with the recent vibe shift in PCA's favor.
Why It Will Happen
As it is, though, Crow-Armstrong already has significant leads over Ohtani for both rWAR (7.5 to 6.3) and fWAR (8.0 to 6.5). And those only figure to grow.
For one thing, it sure doesn't sound like Ohtani will be able to pitch for the Los Angeles Dodgers again before October. And for another, PCA has been the hotter hitter if you expand the scope beyond the last couple of weeks.
He's batting .300/.410/.590 with 25 homers and 26 stolen bases over his last 103 games. That's absurd production for any hitter, much less one who is also the best defensive center fielder in baseball today—or maybe ever, for that matter.
The Boston Red Sox Will Finish Ahead of the New York Yankees
5 of 8
Why It's a Hot Take
Just on its face, this doesn't sound remotely implausible. The Red Sox are only 2.0 games behind the Yankees. As deficits go, not exactly insurmountable.
Of course, the Red Sox's deficit is as small as it is because they were basically unbeatable for six weeks. They have won 32 out of their last 40, a swing that has taken them from 14 games under .500 to 10 games over .500.
No team on that kind of run can avoid the high-water mark forever, and the Red Sox may have found theirs. They have lost three straight to the Athletics and the Toronto Blue Jays, two of the four worst teams in the AL.
Why It Will Happen
Yet as unlikely as Boston's rise has been, it feels luckier than it actually has been. Since it began on June 25, they have outscored opponents by 2.3 runs per game due to a combination of outstanding pitching and balanced offense.
Meanwhile, anyone else notice the Yankees are 40-40 in their last 80 games? This malaise began a little after Aaron Judge first hurt his rib, which pretty much reinforces how hard it is for this team to go without him.
To this end, his injury is still "healing" rather than healed. If he returns at all, it might be after the Red Sox get Roman Anthony, Trevor Story and possibly even Garrett Crochet back. They could also call up shortstop Franklin Arias, who B/R's Joel Reuter has ranked as MLB's No. 4 prospect.
The Detroit Tigers Will Win the AL Central
6 of 8
Why It's a Hot Take
The Tigers as AL Central winners? In this Tarik Skubal-less economy?
It's a tall order, alright, and the stars wouldn't necessarily be aligned in Detroit's favor even if Skubal was still around. They're 3.5 games behind the Chicago White Sox, who have had a way of bouncing back just when everyone has been ready to write off their rise from the ashes.
Plus, never count out the Cleveland Guardians as the best bet for a late-season run. They did it last year, and their advantage right now is the easiest remaining schedule of any American League team.
Why It Will Happen
Speaking of strength of schedule, though, Detroit has it easier than the White Sox the rest of the way. And the teams on the Tigers' schedule are in for a real challenge.
As wild as it sounds, their +87 run differential is the best in the American League. A lot of that comes down to an offense that has been on one since June 1, averaging 5.4 runs and 1.6 home runs per game.
Besides, who needs Tarik Skubal when you have Troy Melton? His 1.46 ERA is as shiny as they come, and he could ask for worse support in the rotation than Framber Valdez and a healthy Jackson Jobe.
The Seattle Mariners Will Win the AL West
7 of 8
Why It's a Hot Take
This is such a bad idea—perhaps even an insult to bad ideas. All the available evidence suggests the 2026 Mariners are a cursed team.
Cal Raleigh has been off the IL for two months now, so we can dispense with the theory that his oblique is why he's batting .161 with a .303 slugging percentage. The rest of the offense has caught whatever malady he has. Since moving to a season-high four games over .500 on June 9, Seattle has averaged 3.4 runs per game.
The only thing keeping the Mariners competitive most nights is their starting pitching, and even that aspect isn't perfect. Bryan Woo is the only one who isn't prone to home runs, and he somehow has a 6.71 ERA on the road.
Why It Will Happen
Again, this is a bad idea. Still, it is tempting to believe Raleigh cannot possibly be this bad just one year after a 60-homer season. Julio Rodríguez and Josh Naylor have underperformed, too.
Further, Seattle could benefit more from roster expansion in September than any other team. Kade Anderson is arguably baseball's best prospect, while Lazaro Montes and Michael Arroyo are among the hottest hitters in the minors. All three are in line to get called up.
There's also the reality that a 4.5-game deficit isn't such a bad penalty for how poorly the Mariners have played so far. If things finally do click for them, it'll be a short trip to the top of the AL West.
The Philadelphia Phillies Will Miss the Playoffs
8 of 8
Why It's a Hot Take
As of now, the Phillies are tied with the Arizona Diamondbacks in the NL wild-card standings, with the San Diego Padres just 1.0 game behind the pair.
Of the three, the Phillies are probably the safe bet to hang on. It obviously helps to have Zack Wheeler, Cristopher Sánchez and Jesús Luzardo sharing a rotation, and there's hope for the offense, too.
We mentioned Schwarber's recent funk-buster earlier. Bryce Harper has also been warm with a 1.045 OPS over his last 15 games. And Trea Turner is finally showing up, with his last 23 games yielding a .911 OPS.
Why It Will Happen
Yet the Phillies do have one major disadvantage, in that their remaining strength of schedule is harder than those of Arizona and San Diego:
- Philadelphia Phillies: .502
- San Diego Padres: .499
- Arizona Diamondbacks: .496
The latter two clubs have also started the second half strongly, each going 15-9, while the Phillies are 10-13. And the Padres, especially, can hope for further helium.
They badly needed their deadline additions of Casey Mize and Robbie Ray. And now their offense is getting hot precisely because the right guys (i.e., Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Jackson Merrill) have shown up to carry it. As a result, San Diego is fifth in scoring since the break.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
.jpg?w=2560 "Grading Monday Night Raw 🔠")
.jpg?w=2560 "Bills Fans RIP New Stadium")
.jpg?w=2560 "Buzz: Dolphins Trading for Pats OL")
