NBA Playoffs 2016: 1st-Round Predictions and Title Odds for All 16 Teams
The road to the 2016 NBA title runs through Oakland, California. That was no mystery, what with the Golden State Warriors following up their first championship in 40 years with the winningest season in league history.
Now that the rest of the playoff field is set, we know who else will be braving that treacherous road through the East Bay en route to the Larry O'Brien Trophy. The San Antonio Spurs and Oklahoma City Thunder will have to face familiar foes in the first round. The Los Angeles Clippers must get by a plucky Portland Trail Blazers squad if they're to go toe-to-toe with their archrivals.
In the East, LeBron James' path to a sixth straight Finals will be filled with opponents from his past: the Detroit Pistons, against whom he authored his first great postseason legend; the Boston Celtics and Atlanta Hawks, each of whom his Cleveland Cavaliers swept last spring; and potentially, the Miami Heat, who tie-broke their way to the conference's No. 3 seed.
Before the action tips off Saturday, let's have a look at how each of the 16 postseason participants figures to fare, based on its own condition and that of its opponents. We'll also look at each team's odds of winning a championship in the coming months, courtesy of Odds Shark.
Atlanta Hawks
1 of 16
Championship Odds: 75-1
The Atlanta Hawks own the NBA's longest playoff streak outside the Alamo City, with nine straight appearances. Unlike the San Antonio Spurs, though, the Hawks have yet to return home from their postseason travels with hardware.
Last spring, they came as close as they have since moving to Atlanta in 1968. This year's Hawks fell far short of last season's franchise-record 60-win squad but may be better equipped to crack the Finals. As ESPN.com's Zach Lowe noted, Paul Millsap, aside from being an All-Star, has spearheaded a defensive renaissance in Atlanta:
"...he has developed into the keystone of the league's stingiest defense since Jan. 1 -- a jack-of-all-trades with the speed to extinguish pick-and-rolls 30 feet from the basket, glue-trap hands that rip more steals than almost any big man in league history, and the guts to initiate an airborne collision at the rim. Millsap is averaging 1.7 blocks per game, by far a career high, and he's the only rotation player in the league topping 1.7 blocks and 1.7 steals per night.
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That even-more-elite defense makes the Hawks a threat to upset the presumed order in the East.
Atlanta's frontcourt—its longtime foundation—provides a clear advantage in the first round against the Boston Celtics. Millsap and Al Horford should have a field day against Boston’s half-baked bigs. They certainly did during the regular season, combining for 36.8 points, 17.3 rebounds and eight assists to help the Hawks go 3-1 against the C’s.
So long as Atlanta stays healthy and the two-headed point guard hydra of Jeff Teague and Dennis Schroder doesn’t succumb to Boston’s perimeter pressure, the Hawks should soar into the second round with relative ease.
First-round prediction: Hawks advance in six games.
Boston Celtics
2 of 16
Championship Odds: 66-1
The Boston Celtics are still well short of championship contention, but they're right on schedule.
They followed up a first-round sweep at the hands of the Cleveland Cavaliers with a 48-win season marked by an All-Star turn for Isaiah Thomas and full-court feistiness from the rest of his comrades. Now, the onus is on Brad Stevens' squad to parlay that frenetic style into postseason success.
The basketball gods didn’t do him any first-round favors. The Celtics dropped three of four this season to a Hawks squad that led the league in defensive efficiency once the calendar turned to 2016.
The bigger issue for Boston will be handling Atlanta’s bigs. Stevens searched high and low all season for a single frontcourt player (other than Jae Crowder, who’s more of a wing anyway) who could be a consistent factor on both ends. The Hawks, on the other hand, have two of them in All-Stars Paul Millsap and Al Horford.
It’s not as though Boston’s backcourt is loaded with playmakers, either. Thomas put together a fantastic campaign in his own right, but who else among the Celts is going to step up when the proverbial chips are down?
First-round prediction: Celtics lose in six games.
Charlotte Hornets
3 of 16
Championship Odds: 150-1
Will the Charlotte Hornets be more than just another nice Eastern Conference story? Or will they finally make Michael Jordan a proud postseason papa as owner?
That will depend, in large part, on the health of their roster. Cody Zeller returned from a one-game shoulder injury in time for the season finale. Nicolas Batum, the team leader in assists and its second-best scorer, is coping with a sprained left ankle. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist won't come back from a torn labrum any time soon.
Charlotte will also be short on postseason experience compared to the Miami Heat. As far as overall competence, though, there may be no closer first-round matchup than this one. Both teams finished 48-34 and split their season series.
To come out ahead, the Hornets, who posted the lowest turnover rate in the league, will need to do more than not beat themselves. Kemba Walker must extend his breakout campaign into the postseason and keep Charlotte's offense humming.
"He’s the engine that gets them going," Heat coach Erik Spoelstra said, per the Miami Herald's Manny Navarro.
If Walker holds his own opposite Goran Dragic and Dwyane Wade, the Hornets could pull out their first playoff series win since 2002. If not, Charlotte should still have the goods to push Miami to the brink.
First-round prediction: Hornets lose in seven games.
Cleveland Cavaliers
4 of 16
Championship Odds: 4-1
The defending Eastern Conference champs could use a fresh start. Between a coaching change, locker-room turmoil, silly social media drama and uneven defensive effort, the Cavs might just as soon forget the 2015-16 regular season ever happened, even though they won 57 games and clinched the East's No. 1 seed.
Such are the expectations in Cleveland, where it's championship or bust for LeBron James and company.
As overwhelming a favorite as Cleveland may be in the East, this team could be in for a dogfight during its first-round matchup with the Detroit Pistons. The Cavs dropped three of four to their Central Division rivals but never lost by more than eight points, including overtime in a battle of B teams during the campaign’s final day.
The Pistons could have more than a puncher’s chance should they pounce on the Cavs early. But if LeBron and Co. can flip that postseason switch quickly, Cleveland should make quick work of an inexperienced Detroit bunch.
James, for one, has been in playoff mode for at least a couple of weeks now.
"I've been going to the gym even more, dialed in more on what needs to be done and what needs to be better," he said recently, per ESPN.com's Dave McMenamin. "I've been in this league a long time and I know what I need to do for my game to be even more sharp, so I'm glad I was able to deliver and not just talk about it, be able to deliver for my teammates because that's what means more to me than anything."
First-round prediction: Cavaliers advance in five games.
Dallas Mavericks
5 of 16
Championship Odds: 250-1
Kobe Bryant will be watching this year's playoffs as a retiree, but thanks in part to Dirk Nowitzki and the Dallas Mavericks, his generation will be well represented.
For the third time in six years, the Mavericks will match wits with the Oklahoma City Thunder in the playoffs. Each team has beaten the other once before moving on to the Finals, with Dallas winning the title in 2011 and OKC falling short to the Miami Heat in 2012.
This year’s Mavs would be fortunate to make an actual series of their bout with the Thunder, let alone ride another hot streak all the way into June.
Chandler Parsons has been done for the season since undergoing another knee operation in mid-March. J.J. Barea (groin), David Lee (heel) and Devin Harris (thumb) are all listed as questionable for Game 1 in OKC on Saturday. Wesley Matthews has been inconsistent, though not unexpectedly, throughout a campaign marked by his recovery from a torn Achilles. Deron Williams played well (17 points, 5.3 assists) in three games following his return from strains in his groin and abdomen.
That once again leaves Nowitzki as the lone reliable ranger defending the Metroplex, this time from a hungry, athletic Thunder team that went 4-0 against Dallas during the regular season.
Five years ago, that might have been enough to beat an elite team or two. Now? It looks like a recipe for disaster in Big D.
First-round prediction: Mavericks lose in five games.
Detroit Pistons
6 of 16
Championship Odds: 200-1
For the first time since 2009, the sounds of "DEEEEEEEETROIIIIT BAAAASKETBAAAAAALL" will ring through Auburn Hills during Detroit Pistons playoff games.
How long through the spring those chants last is another story.
The Pistons have five players on their roster (Reggie Jackson, Steve Blake, Aron Baynes, Jodie Meeks, Joel Anthony) who know firsthand what playoff basketball is all about. The rest, including league double-double and rebounding leader Andre Drummond, will just be dipping their toes in those waters.
That’s bad news for a squad that is slated to face an opponent as steeled by postseason experience as the Cavaliers. Detroit doesn’t yet know how some of its talented youngsters will fare in the hot house of playoff competition.
"Everything is just, it's so uptight now," Drummond told NBA.com's David Aldridge." You've got to take every single play at a time, every practice at a time. You can't look forward, because you start putting too much pressure on yourself, you start to feel it. So for us, we just take it game by game, practice by practice, take it step by step."
If there’s one key Piston who understands what the playoffs are all about, it’s Jackson, who’s risen to the occasion before, albeit with the Oklahoma City Thunder.
"I like it," Jackson said, per the Miami Herald’s Ethan Skolnick. "I don't want to fight Goliath's homeboy or little brother. I want to fight Goliath."
Be careful what you wish for, Reggie.
First-round prediction: Pistons lose in five games.
Golden State Warriors
7 of 16
Championship Odds: 2-3
The Golden State Warriors' 73-win season was brilliant, but it won't matter nearly as much without a championship cherry to top it all off. The journey to a second straight Larry O'Brien Trophy will begin with a rematch of last year's Western Conference Finals against the Houston Rockets.
This year's Rockets may not play like their predecessors—certainly not on the defensive end, where they slipped to 20th in 2015-16—but they still look like them. The Dubs can ill-afford to overlook a foe that fields James Harden and Dwight Howard, with Patrick Beverley ready to harass Stephen Curry.
Then again, Golden State isn't the same, either. Curry might be the MVP and the Most Improved, Draymond Green has morphed into a working-class Scottie Pippen, and the Warriors have hit a stride rarely seen by even their group who won 67 games and went all the way last year.
As NBA.com's John Schuhmann pointed out, the key to this series might not be Steph, Green or Klay Thompson but the reigning Finals MVP: "The Warriors outscored the Rockets by 54 minutes in 93 minutes with Andre Iguodala on the floor and were outscored by 17 points in 51 minutes with Iguodala on the bench. His 44 total points were the most he scored against any opponent."
With Iguodala back from an ankle injury, the Dubs should be ready to roll against the Rockets come Saturday.
First-round prediction: Warriors advance in four games.
Houston Rockets
8 of 16
Championship Odds: 300-1
The Houston Rockets sneaked into the playoffs by the hair on James Harden's chinny-chin-chin. A 116-81 whooping of the Sacramento Kings on the last day of the season ensured the Rockets wouldn't be conference finalists-turned-lottery participants.
Then again, Houston might have been better served long-term by taking a step back. Instead, the team will brace for a rematch with a Warriors squad that, on the heels of a record-breaking 73-win campaign, looks to be head and shoulders better than the one that put them out of the NBA's Final Four last spring.
Personnel-wise, this Houston team is essentially identical to the one that succumbed to Golden State's wrath in five games. Harden is still one of the best offensive players on the planet, Dwight Howard can dominate the glass on any given night, and the rest of the roster remains stocked with energetic athletes who can shoot and defend.
"We do have a solid chance," Rockets general manager Daryl Morey said during an appearance on SportsTalk 790 in Houston, per the Bay Area News Group's Diamond Leung.
What, exactly, Houston has a solid chance of is up for debate. The Rockets lost all three of their games against Golden State this season and sport a defense that's tied with that of the Portland Trail Blazers for the worst in the playoffs.
It's no wonder, then, that Rockets fans have such little faith in their team's prospects of advancing.
First-round prediction: Rockets lose in four games.
Indiana Pacers
9 of 16
Championship Odds: 200-1
Last year, the Indiana Pacers fell a Brooklyn tiebreaker shy of sneaking into the playoffs with Paul George hobbling back from a horrific leg injury. This time, a healthy George made sure a revamped Pacers squad wouldn't have to sweat out the season's stretch run.
Indy could (and should) be more than first-round roadkill for the Toronto Raptors. While the Raptors’ current core has yet to advance in the playoffs, Indy still has three players in its starting lineup—Paul George, George Hill and Ian Mahinmi—who partook in the team’s back-to-back conference finals appearances in 2013 and 2014.
Those Pacers squads would have had the brute strength up front to bully Toronto’s softer bigs. Instead, Indy will have to lean on its perimeter playmakers opposite the All-Star tandem of Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan, lest it leave the heavy lifting to Mahinmi, Lavoy Allen, Jordan Hill and rookie Myles Turner.
More importantly, the Pacers can’t afford to let the Raptors parade their way to the free-throw line. Toronto attempted an average of 35.3 freebies per game in taking three of four from Indiana this season.
"Usually, playoffs is all about hard fouls and guys get rewarded for playing hard,” George said, per the Indianapolis Star’s Candace Buckner. "But we’ve got to be smart at the same time."
If they’re not, the Pacers won’t live to see the second round amid a Raptors parade to the stripe.
First-round prediction: Pacers lose in six games.
Los Angeles Clippers
10 of 16
Championship Odds: 28-1
All eyes will be on Blake Griffin's tender quad as the Los Angeles Clippers embark on their franchise-record fifth straight playoff quest. Whatever he can bring to the table against the Portland Trail Blazers' frontcourt will be key to the Clippers seizing control.
L.A. may need more than that out of its superstar forward if its guards aren't firing on all cylinders—and they might not be.
Chris Paul's stamina could be a concern after all the effort he expended to keep the Clippers afloat while Griffin was out. J.J. Redick has been battling a bruised heel.
Neither reads as good news when they'll be operating and defending against younger, quicker, more explosive opponents such as Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum. The more trouble the Clippers have containing those two, the longer this series will go and the greater the danger of Doc Rivers' squad slipping out of the first round becomes.
All the more important, then, that Griffin and DeAndre Jordan do their damage up front.
First-round prediction: Clippers advance in six games.
Memphis Grizzlies
11 of 16
Championship Odds: 500-1
Not even an unsightly spate of injuries could keep the Memphis Grizzlies from gritting and grinding their way to a sixth straight playoff appearance. Now, they'll need similar catastrophes to befall all of their opponents, beginning with the San Antonio Spurs.
Good luck with that, especially with all the rest Gregg Popovich has afforded his guys.
The Grizzlies, for their part, won't lie down and offer up a footpath to the Finals like some freshly laid red carpet. Memphis still packs quite the spiritual punch, with intimidators such as Zach Randolph, Tony Allen, Matt Barnes and Lance Stephenson leading the charge.
It'll take more than a pugilistic approach to keep the Grizzlies within arm's reach of the Spurs, though. San Antonio could be vulnerable, between LaMarcus Aldridge's sore finger and the aging of the team's Big Three.
Just not against a Memphis team that backed its way into the playoffs (1-9 in its final 10 games).
First-round prediction: Grizzlies lose in four games.
Miami Heat
12 of 16
Championship Odds: 75-1
With Chris Bosh, the Miami Heat might have mounted a serious challenge to the Cavaliers in the Eastern Conference. They might still do that without him.
Before Dwyane Wade can set his sights on upsetting his good buddy LeBron James, he and the Heat will have to focus on a first-round fight with the Hornets.
Miami will have the upper hand when it comes to experience and should be able to control the game from the inside out. While the Hornets lean heavily on the three-point line (fourth in attempts, eighth in percentage), the Heat can counter with slashers like Wade, Goran Dragic, Joe Johnson and Luol Deng to low-post behemoth Hassan Whiteside.
"You have two really evenly matched teams," Heat coach Erik Spoelstra said, per the Miami Herald's Manny Navarro. "The styles are a little bit different. But, they’re extremely well coached. They have some corporate knowledge of guys being in the playoffs together, playing some seasons together. And you can see that they’ve responded with a very good regular season. This is going to be a challenge for both teams. This is what you want."
The close quarters of this series should suit the Heat just fine. They're stocked with proven crunch-time performers and, according to NBA.com, were the fourth-most clutch team in the league, just ahead of—you guessed it!—the Hornets.
First-round prediction: Heat advance in seven games.
Oklahoma City Thunder
13 of 16
Championship Odds: 10-1
Kendrick Perkins might know something about Kevin Durant's future that the rest of us don't. The former teammate of Durant's with the Oklahoma City Thunder and current New Orleans Pelicans center said his old pal has "a few teams that he will be looking at" but couldn't reveal which those were on account of a "confidentiality form," per ESPN.com's Chris Forsberg.
"[The Thunder] win it all, he can’t leave, in my opinion," Perkins said. "But if they don’t, it might be time for a change."
Those are the stakes for the Thunder in the playoffs, which begin with the Mavericks on the other end. OKC swept Dallas during the regular season and could have the goods to do so again.
The Mavs, though, won't go quietly. They take much better care of the ball (second-lowest turnover ratio in the league) than the Thunder (third-highest), are far more efficient in the clutch and own a clear edge in coaching, with the championship-tested Rick Carlisle looming over Billy Donovan's first foray into the NBA playoffs.
Still, only one of these teams has Durant and Russell Westbrook on its side. That may not be true for long, but for now, it should be enough to shove Dallas out of the way.
First-round prediction: Thunder advance in five games.
Portland Trail Blazers
14 of 16
Championship Odds: 150-1
It's same seed, different day for the Portland Trail Blazers.
Last spring, they slipped to fifth in the West after losing Wesley Matthews to a torn Achilles. This time, they're once again No. 5, albeit without Matthews, LaMarcus Aldridge, Nicolas Batum, Robin Lopez and Arron Afflalo.
The Blazers will have plenty to prove in their first-round showdown with the Clippers. Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum exceeded expectations by boosting the Blazers back into the postseason after a tumultuous summer. It'll be up to Portland's brilliant young backcourt to turn a surprising season into something more than a "happy to be here" playoff cameo.
As the Oregonian’s Mike Richman noted, the gap in postseason experience between the two combatants could hardly be more cavernous:
"The 14 players on the Blazers' active playoff roster have played a combined 1,762 minutes in 83 playoff games. For comparison sake, Los Angeles Clippers point guard Chris Paul has played 2,501 playoff minutes. Four of the five Clippers starters have logged at least 1,300 minutes of postseason action and played in over 40 playoff games. Clippers forward Paul Pierce has played in 158 postseason games while six Blazers have never been to the playoffs.
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Given that disparity, Portland may have to rely on foolhardiness to carry the team through. How else can the likes of Mason Plumlee, Ed Davis and Noah Vonleh hope to hold their own against Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan?
Then again, maybe it won’t come down to that if Lillard and McCollum can get hot opposite Chris Paul and J.J. Redick. Each has the capacity to win a game practically by himself, but from where else will the Blazers draw strength to claim two more victories?
First-round prediction: Trail Blazers lose in six games.
San Antonio Spurs
15 of 16
Championship Odds: 15-4
Three losses in four regular-season meetings with the Warriors don't bode well for the San Antonio Spurs this spring. But Gregg Popovich's guys have plenty of other business to attend to before they start scheming new ways to upend the defending champs.
The Spurs will face the Grizzlies for the fourth time in a playoff series. Two of the previous three meetings ended with San Antonio sweeps.
The latest edition figures to end the same way, even with LaMarcus Aldridge nursing a sore finger. The Spurs are loaded with talent from top to bottom. The Grizzlies, on the other hand, have been fortunate to field anything close to an NBA roster since losing Marc Gasol and Mike Conley to injury and then trading away Jeff Green and Courtney Lee.
San Antonio could use the relative respite to begin its latest postseason push.
Assuming the Spurs dispatch the Grizzlies, they'll have to steel themselves for a second-round showdown with the athletic Thunder before they can even contemplate a conference finals date with the Warriors, who beat them three out of four times during the regular season.
First-round prediction: Spurs advance in four games.
Toronto Raptors
16 of 16
Championship Odds: 33-1
The Toronto Raptors' franchise-best 56-win season won't mean a lick if it once again ends with first-round extinction.
This should be the year the Raptors finally break through. The Pacers, their first-round opponent, have the size and athleticism up front to give Toronto’s bigs fits, but Indy, as a whole, may still be a year or two away from being a bona fide threat in the Eastern Conference.
Not that the Raptors will be in perfect shape themselves.
James Johnson (foot) is listed as questionable for Game 1 on Saturday. Kyle Lowry’s elbow bothered him during the season’s homestretch. DeMarre Carroll is still working his way back into shape following a 41-game absence. The frontcourt of Jonas Valanciunas and Luis Scola could be ripe for exploitation by Indiana's athletic (Ian Mahinmi, Myles Turner) and physical (Lavoy Allen, Jordan Hill) bigs.
For what it's worth, Toronto is not pinning all of the franchise's hopes to this year's playoff appearance.
"No, definitely not," head coach Dwane Casey said, per TSN's Josh Lewenberg. "We don't go into it thinking that way."
Nor should they be. If the Raptors play some honest-to-goodness defense and let Lowry and DeMar DeRozan do what they've done all season, they should snag the second playoff series victory in team history.
First-round prediction: Raptors advance in six games.
Josh Martin covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@JoshMartinNBA), Instagram and Facebook.
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