What Makes the Oklahoma City Thunder a Serious Threat in the Playoffs?

The Thunder blew out the Celtics 130-109 Wednesday, and while fans in Boston were more concerned with Kevin Durant’s plans for this summer, Oklahoma City showed once again people shouldn’t ignore what the team is capable of doing before then.

Most of the talk about the Western Conference this season has been about the Golden State Warriors, and rightfully so. Golden State may finish this season with the best record in league history. What little time is left after people are done gushing about Steph Curry and Co. is spent lauding the San Antonio Spurs, who are winning at a ridiculous pace of their own.

That completely justified adoration has nonetheless crowded out any conversation about the Thunder that doesn’t have to do with Durant’s impending free agency.

Meanwhile, Oklahoma City has calmly gone 4-2 since its loss at Golden State on March 3, with an average margin of victory of 18.75 points in those four wins. It beat Boston by 21 on Wednesday after defeating the Portland Trail Blazers by 34 earlier in the week.

All that to say the Thunder are starting to peak at the right time. If that’s the case, Oklahoma City may be able to make it further in the playoffs than previously thought, particularly if its offense can continue to be as good as it looks right now.

The perception is the Thunder’s greatest weakness is how much their offense relies on isolation plays for Durant and Russell Westbrook. The ball doesn’t move as quickly and easily around the court as it does for the Warriors and Spurs.

While that is still true to an extent, Oklahoma City has had much better offensive flow this season because of how Durant and Westbrook are now playing together.

Durant has been playing off the ball much more this year. The former MVP has elected to allow Westbrook to keep the ball in his hands and attack the basket.

When Westbrook does this, opposing defenses shift to stop his drive, leaving Durant and other Thunder players open for the point guard’s quick passes.

You can see the effects in these highlights against Portland. Almost every time Westbrook has the ball inside the arc, a big man slides over to help, leaving a Thunder big open in the lane.

Durant, one of the best shooters in the game, benefits as well. As defenses collapse on Westbrook’s drives, Westbrook whips it out to Durant for open looks from deep. That’s part of why Durant is taking a career-high 6.5 three-pointers a game.

The Thunder did all of these things when Durant was playing on the ball more, but not as well. With this slight change, the Thunder offense has become far more fluid. They are averaging more points per 100 possessions (112.9) than during Durant’s MVP season (110.5), according to Basketball-Reference.com.

The result is an attack that is actually the second-most efficient in the league—even ahead of the machine that is San Antonio. Golden State is the only team in the league that leads Oklahoma City in points per game or offensive efficiency.

	PPG	Off Rtg
GSW	115.7 (1st)	114.9 (1st)
SAS	104.6 (T-6th)	110.9 (3rd)
OKC	110.1 (2nd)	112.9 (2nd)

Statistics courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com.

And when the offense inevitably breaks down in the playoffs as defenses tighten up, the Thunder can go back to their iso-heavy offense.

The Thunder are the only team in the NBA with two players in the top 10 in the league in scoring: Durant scores 28 points per game, while Westbrook scores 24. Both of them are former scoring champions who can take over when their team needs a bucket.

The ability to either move the ball or give it to a go-to scorer makes the Thunder extremely versatile on offense. As such, they are probably the only team that can hope to match up with Golden State on offense in a seven-game series.

Defense, however, is what will determine how far Oklahoma City goes in the postseason.

The Thunder are pretty average defensively. They are 14th in the league in defensive efficiency. Their greatest advantages are versatility and rebounding.

Oklahoma City boasts a very flexible lineup. It can go big with its normal lineup, featuring Steven Adams at center, Serge Ibaka at power forward and Durant on the wing. That is a solid matchup against bigger teams like the Spurs.

Against small-ball teams like the Warriors, the Thunder have an answer too. They can slide Ibaka to center and let Durant play the 4. That lineup has better spacing on offense and quickness to keep up with anyone on the defensive end.

Then there’s rebounding, where the Thunder are the best in the league. They are among the top three teams in the league in total rebounding, defensive rebounding and offensive rebounding.

Durant and Westbrook are two of the best rebounders in the league at their positions. Between them, Ibaka, Adams and Enes Kanter, they aren’t going to lose many boards.

Compared to Golden State and San Antonio, the Thunder have a significant advantage on the glass, particularly on offense.

	Total RPG	Off RPG	Def RPG
GSW	46.4 (3rd)	10.3 (T-17th)	36.2 (1st)
SAS	44.4 (10th)	9.4 (24th)	35.0 (4th)
OKC	48.4 (1st)	12.9 (1st)	35.5 (3rd)

That advantage will be crucial in the playoffs. Their rebounding on the defensive end will keep opponents from getting many extra shots.

Their league-leading offensive rebounding will create more opportunities for their offense while simultaneously taking away possessions from the other team.

Offensive rebounding was the difference during Cleveland’s run to the Finals last season, and it was the main advantage the Cavaliers had against Golden State. Should the Thunder face the Warriors, that’s an area they could exploit.

The Thunder obviously would like to avoid that matchup for a while, though. They currently sit as the No. 3 seed in the West. Keeping that seed would protect them from having to face the Warriors in the second round.

Instead, they would likely face the Spurs. That’s not an easy matchup, but at least the Thunder are 1-1 against San Antonio compared to 0-3 against Golden State.

With their unique combination of versatility and rebounding on both ends of the floor, this season for the Thunder has the chance to be memorable because of more than just the drama leading up to Durant’s free agency.

The Warriors and Spurs are favored to make the Western Conference Finals, and they should be. If either of those teams face the Thunder in the playoffs, the smart money would go against Oklahoma City.

But keep this in mind: Since the start of the 2013 postseason, the Thunder have yet to lose a playoff series in which Durant, Westbrook and Ibaka were all available.

That’s why the Thunder aren’t looking ahead to July just yet. And neither should we.