Biggest Takeaways from Indianapolis Colts' Week 16 Win
Some may advocate for the Indianapolis Colts to move on and abandon this season, but none of those people resides in the locker room, as evidenced by another ugly but persistent win in Week 16.
The Colts didn't play well, but they played better than their opponent, and that's all that matters. The 18-12 road win over the Miami Dolphins goes down into the record books as a win for Indianapolis, regardless of the rest of the box score or the game's entertainment value.
The game was ugly on both sides—with two teams that are likely looking at coaching staff and potentially front-office shake-ups and with players who know their next offseason could look different from what they're used to.
Still, the game ended with a four-down stand in the red zone with one team having a chance to win it, so excitement was at least present.
The Colts still have a slim chance to make the playoffs, thanks to their win, while the Dolphins are spiraling downward toward a potential bottom-five pick in the draft. Some optimism remains for Indianapolis, but the win was also costly for Indianapolis in a number of ways.
The Colts Have a Chance
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First things first: The Colts' playoff hopes are alive.
They are on life support, plugged in by a cord that's frayed and weathered, but they're alive.
The Colts' win, followed by a number of key results around the league (including Denver's win on Monday night), ensured they'll have a chance to tie the Houston Texans at the top of the AFC South in Week 17. However, they'll need quite a bit of help, as eight other Week 17 games need to fall their way in order for the tiebreaking scenarios to work out.
According to Andrew Siciliano of NFL Network, the Colts will need to beat Tennessee to start it off and then wait for the following results:
But while the Colts' playoff chances may have stayed barely alive, the win also cost them a significant jump in draft position. Because they are guaranteed to finish with at least seven wins, 10 teams are already guaranteed to finish below them in record. With a 6-10 record, the team could have had a top-10 pick, but Indy is now more likely to land around No. 14 or 15, even if it loses in Week 17.
If the Colts manage to somehow beat the odds and make the playoffs, the win will have been worth it, but given the unlikely nature of that proposition, it may have cost them more in the long run.
The Quarterback Situation Is a Mess
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Surprisingly, the title to this slide is not referring to the Colts' quarterback play, which is as bad as it gets in the NFL.
Both Matt Hasselbeck and Charlie Whitehurst have struggled to move the ball consistently, much less finish drives in the red zone and consistently provide big-play opportunities. The Colts quarterbacks have combined for a passer rating of 77.5 this season, a mark that 31 quarterbacks (including Blaine Gabbert) have beaten, on average, this season.
No, this slide is merely referring to the availability and health of those quarterbacks.
Andrew Luck has yet to be cleared for team drills, according to Kevin Bowen of Colts.com. He hasn't played since lacerating his kidney in Week 9.
Hasselbeck missed half of Sunday's game with a shoulder injury, which has been classified as an AC joint sprain and makes him doubtful for Week 17, according to head coach Chuck Pagano, per Zak Keefer of the Indy Star.
Whitehurst hurt his hamstring late in Sunday's game and was place on the injured reserve list Monday, which makes him unavailable for Week 17 and any other potential playoff games.
Stephen Morris is the Colts' projected starter for Sunday, and he was signed off the Eagles' practice squad last week. The Colts also worked out Josh Freeman this week. Week 17 is always a grab-bag of activity in the NFL, but the Indianapolis offense could be the worst prize of the bunch.
Frank Gore Is Still Good
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Poor Frank Gore.
The 32-year-old veteran came to Indianapolis in search of the first stable quarterback situation in his career, a chance at a title and an explosive offense with defenses defending the pass first.
Instead, he got as messy of a quarterback situation that exists in the league, a team with zero realistic title hopes and an offense stuck in first gear as defenses load the box.
"According to @PFF, #colts Frank Gore has faced 8-plus in box on 48% of runs over last 5 wks. 5th highest in league. Last 5: 78-207, 2.7/att.
— Mike Chappell (@mchappell51) December 24, 2015"
It's led to a narrative that Gore was another one of Ryan Grigson's washed-up free-agent signings, but that couldn't be farther from the truth. While Gore hasn't contributed in the passing game as much as the team hoped in the offseason because of his inconsistent hands and a lack of open-field speed, his vision and power in the run game have still been on display throughout the season.
While poor offensive circumstances have led to statistical struggles, games like Sunday's remind us that Gore still has talent left in those "old" legs.
He powered his way to 72 yards on just six rushes in the first half, using the aforementioned power and vision for runs of 37, 18 and 11 yards, two of which were touchdowns.
Whether the Colts honor the second year of Gore's contract or not is yet to be seen and will likely depend on the new coaching staff and/or front office, but the aging back still has potential in some kind of role.
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The Colts Defense Has Pieces to Build Around
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People will remember the Colts allowing 45 and 51 points in consecutive weeks when they look back at the 2015 defense and likely ignore games like Sunday, where the Colts sacked Ryan Tannehill six times and had the game-winning stop in a goal-to-go situation.
That's just how people are. They naturally remember what matches up with preconceived notions, like the Colts having a terrible defense.
The reality is that the defense has been rather average all season, and the numbers back it up. Even before Sunday's much-needed performance, the Colts ranked 15th in Football Outsiders' DVOA, which accounts for situation and opponent adjustments.
While the defense isn't necessarily an advantage, the Colts have promising pieces to build around going forward. Vontae Davis has had a good season despite falling back a bit from 2014, after adding another interception Sunday. Jerrell Freeman has bounced back from an injury-riddled 2014 for a solid 2015 campaign and has done enough to (ideally) get re-signed.
The defensive line was dominant against a weak Miami line, with young players like David Parry, T.Y. McGill and Zach Kerr all making plays, while recent free-agent addition Kendall Langford racked up two sacks and five defensive stops.
The defense needs plenty of work in the secondary and linebacker positions, particularly in depth, but it's not a unit that needs a total overhaul by any means.
Pat McAfee Was Snubbed
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With a disappointing season comes a disappointing year-end awards period.
So, it was no surprise the Colts didn't have a single Pro Bowler announced last week. That being said, Pat McAfee was still robbed of what should have been his second consecutive Pro Bowl appearance.
He is averaging a career-high 48 yards per punt, which leads the league. He also leads the NFL in Pro Football Focus' grading with a plus-39.9 grade.
On Sunday, McAfee was brilliant yet again, punting five times and averaging 51 yards per punt. Just one of the punts was returned (for 15 yards), as McAfee averaged 44 net yards per punt, a figure that would lead the league. As a result, the Dolphins started eight of their nine drives inside their own 25.
Here's an example of how much of a weapon McAfee is: On the first drive of the game, he perfectly placed a 40-yard punt to pin the Dolphins on their own 4-yard line. The Colts would force a safety three plays later, setting the tone for the game.
Up 15-6 in the third quarter, the Colts had a fourth down on their own 37. The defense had kept the Dolphins at bay all game but had been blessed with long fields to defend and some well-timed turnovers. With an opportunity to pin the Dolphins deep yet again, McAfee boomed a 51-yard punt that was recovered by the Dolphins at their own 8-yard line.
Unfortunately, the Colts were called for holding, nullifying the punt and pushing Indianapolis back to its own 27. But McAfee came right back with another big punt, this one a 52-yarder that was fair-caught at the Dolphins 21-yard line. It wasn't a punt that would go down in the record books as pinning the Dolphins inside their own 20, but it effectively flipped the field even after a demoralizing penalty and forced the Dolphins to attempt to drive 80 yards for a touchdown (which they couldn't do, eventually kicking a field goal on the drive).
Punting isn't exciting to most football fans, and McAfee's exploits often go unnoticed by those outside of Indianapolis. But they shouldn't. McAfee is the best punter in the league, and this season has been another year in which Colts fans have been grateful once again to have him on their side.
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