Eagles vs. Patriots: What's the Game Plan for New England?
The New England Patriots may have dodged a bullet on the injury front last week, but in the short term, Bill Belichick's squad is severely short-handed. Without Rob Gronkowski, Julian Edelman or Dont'a Hightower, there are schematic limitations to what New England can do on both sides of the ball.
In fact, the Patriots are probably at a disadvantage against the Philadelphia Eagles this week simply in terms of pure talent. Of course, Chip Kelly's squad has underachieved unlike almost any team this season, imploding en route to a 4-7 record and three consecutive losses. The Eagles are still firmly in the moribund NFC East title race, but Philly hardly has the look of a team capable of pulling off an upset at Gillette Stadium.
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Still, the Patriots are not in any position to take an opponent for granted. Whatever margin for error the offense had dissipated with Gronkowski's injury, and the defense looked surprisingly shaky in blowing a two-touchdown lead against the Denver Broncos last Sunday. New England is still one game up on the AFC field for home-field advantage, but it needs to rebound from that rare late-game wobble.
Read on for a complete breakdown of how the Patriots can continue Philadelphia's slide and find their way back into the win column.
Offensive Game Plan
The Eagles' defensive collapse over the past two weeks has arisen seemingly out of nowhere. Through the season's first 10 weeks, Philadelphia ranked sixth in yards allowed per play and ninth in points allowed per game. However, in allowing 90 points and 10 passing touchdowns over their past two games against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Detroit Lions, the Birds have somehow morphed into the league's worst defense overnight.
Philly's actual talent lies somewhere in the middle, but it's not difficult to see where the issue lies for the defense. During the first 10 weeks, Philadelphia was tied for second in takeaways per game and 11th in sacks per game. However, over the past two weeks, the Eagles defense has generated just a single takeaway and three sacks, both bottom-10 marks over that span.
Thus, it appears clear the Patriots should thrive offensively if they can avoid the negative plays Philadelphia depends on. Tom Brady did well to protect the ball against Denver, as the Pats didn't commit an offensive turnover in that game, but the offensive line continues to hemorrhage pressure. According to Pro Football Focus' charting, New England has conceded 35 pressures over the past two weeks, the league's third-highest total in that span.
One way to shield the offensive line is to revert to the three-receiver spread sets and quick-timing passing game that the Pats used more frequently early in the season. The Lions had lots of success on Thanksgiving spreading the Eagles defense out from shotgun and targeting the middle of the field against Philly's man-coverage principles:
Look at how much room Eric Ebron had to run after the catch on that play! Ebron managed to escape the tackle from slot corner Malcolm Jenkins and pick up 19 yards on the reception. Philadelphia experienced a similar problem defending the middle of the field against the Bucs the previous week, as Josh Paunil of the excellent Eagles blog Birds 24/7 illustrated in an All-22 breakdown.
The Patriots will probably need to turn to more spread sets if tight end Michael Williams is unable to suit up. Williams missed last week's game with a knee injury and has been limited in practice all week. If Williams joins Rob Gronkowski on the inactive list, the Patriots tight ends will be Scott Chandler and Asante Cleveland, neither of whom are natural fits playing on the line of scrimmage.
Speaking of Chandler, the Eagles should provide a soft landing spot for him to shine in his first game as Brady's primary receiving tight end. Look for the Patriots to isolate Chandler out wide on lots of 2x2 or 3x1 formations this week. This is essentially what Gronkowski does all the time; his first-quarter touchdown against the Broncos came when he split out wide and matched up one-on-one against a defensive back:
Also notice Denver's pre-snap alignment on the play. The Broncos play lots of single-high safety man coverages, which exactly matches what New England should see from Philadelphia on Sunday. Like Wade Phillips, Eagles defensive coordinator Billy Davis has been fairly inflexible in his principles, a practice that has come under scrutiny over the past two weeks.
But that's not New England's problem, and Brady will happily exploit a predictable defense if given the opportunity. Remember the Ebron play from above? Chandler should also receive an opportunity to do damage from the seam as an inside slot receiver. This 22-yard seam route, which helped catalyze New England's last-ditch field-goal drive at the end of the fourth quarter, should work its way into this week's offensive game plan:
So far, though, we've only discussed how the Pats can pick up big chunks. In reality, Chandler will still remain a changeup in the offense, especially with Danny Amendola's expected return to the lineup. As I mentioned in this week's game preview, Philly slot corners Malcolm Jenkins and E.J. Biggers have struggled all season. New England should be able to free Amendola for his usual assortment of in-breaking routes if they motion into stack formations as often as they did last week:
Sub out Keshawn Martin in the above screenshot for Amendola, and you should have an idea of how New England will attempt to set up its receivers. Stack formations not only keep Amendola from facing press coverage, but they also give him more room to operate against defensive backs who will surely be playing off coverage. As such, it would be an upset if Amendola does not lead the team in targets, receptions and first downs.
One more thing: While Josh McDaniels has not hesitated to abandon the run against stout fronts, this shouldn't be one of those weeks. Philadelphia's run defense has totally collapsed since the season-ending pec injury to impressive rookie middle linebacker Jordan Hicks four weeks ago. Since Hicks' injury, the Eagles have allowed 5.0 yards per carry. And within the past two weeks, Philly has hemorrhaged 5.4 yards per carry, the worst mark in the league over that span.
Football Outsiders' Andrew Healy recently noted how badly the Eagles had struggled against power backs who run between the tackles, a description that certainly fits LeGarrette Blount. There isn't much new information to talk about here; the Patriots are a between-the-tackles, gap-blocking rushing team and have stuck to that identity regardless of opponent. Everyone wants to talk about how they can patch together the passing game, but against Philly, Blount should help alleviate pressure off of Brady.
Defensive Game Plan
Chip Kelly's mad science experiment worked wonders over the first season-and-a-half of his tenure, but the collapse that kept the Eagles out of the playoffs last season has carried over into 2015. Kelly's offense has always relied on warp-speed tempo to compensate for simplicity, but after two seasons, opposing defensive coordinators have caught on and created the perception that the Eagles offense is among the league's most predictable.
Formationally, there really isn't much mystery. The Eagles are an 11-personnel (3 WR, 1 RB, 1 TE) and 12-personnel (2 WR, 1 RB, 2 TE) offense and will almost exclusively operate from the shotgun. Philly also uses lots of pre-snap motion but will typically keep the spacing between their receivers spread out rather than using stack and trips formations like the Patriots often will.
The foundation of the Eagles offense is the outside zone, which they will use as their core running play and to set up play action. Though Philly's rushing game is certainly different from Denver's (the Broncos prefer to line up under center with multiple tight ends), the zone concepts will require the same gap discipline and read-and-react tackling, which were lacking at times for the Patriots defense last week.
Many of those struggles did occur after Dont'a Hightower's exit, as MassLive.com's Kevin Duffy pointed out earlier in the week, but Hightower wasn't the only player who was keeping the run defense afloat. In posting their worst run defense performance since September, the Pats defense had multiple breakdowns on numerous plays down the stretch:
Jerod Mayo and Jonathan Freeny, circled on both plays, rarely penetrated the offensive line and often got down blocked. That's the exact worst-case scenario for linebackers against zone-run schemes, and to be sure, Mayo and Freeny probably earned the largest slice of the blame pie in allowing the Broncos to accumulate 179 rushing yards and three scores on 5.6 yards per carry. However, as the second screenshot illustrates, New England's defensive backs were also unusually shoddy in their tackling throughout the game, missing four tackles, according to PFF's charting.
Simplicity will be the Patriots' friend against the Eagles. According to Football Outsiders' pace stats, the Eagles average just 22.18 seconds between plays, the fastest pace in the league. As such, expect the Pats to play relatively standard man coverage while toning down the amount of different pressure looks they might throw at Sam Bradford.
Speaking of Bradford, Philly's starter is expected to return after missing two games with a shoulder injury and concussion. While the former top overall pick has hardly been impressive during his first season in Philadelphia, the offense undeniably missed him during his absence. Though the Birds ran essentially the same offense with Mark Sanchez at the helm, Sanchez generated significantly more negative plays than Bradford:
| Air Yards/Att. | 2.96 yds. (40th) | 3.01 yds. (39th) |
| Time to Pass | 2.68 sec. (24th fastest) | 2.60 sec. (22nd fastest) |
| Sack % | 5.1 percent (15th) | 9.0 percent (31st) |
| INT % | 3.0 percent (26th) | 4.4 percent (31st) |
As the table illustrates, the Eagles will run lots of quick-hitting timing concepts, usually meant to stretch the field horizontally. If that sounds familiar, it's because Bill Belichick has implemented facets of Kelly's offense into the Patriots system in recent seasons, a byproduct of the friendship between the two coaches. It's paid dividends for the Pats, and on Sunday, it might give them a leg up in game-planning for Kelly's squad.
Bradford's propensity for safe, quick throws might make the pass rush less of a focus, but if New England can stifle DeMarco Murray on early downs, the front seven might be able to exploit a leaky Eagles offensive line. In particular, Lane Johnson has shown signs of vulnerabilities having been shuttled back and forth between left tackle and right tackle. Johnson has had issues with quick moves, both to the inside and outside:
That should sound exciting to Chandler Jones and Jabaal Sheard, both of whom possess the quickness and length to give Johnson issues. While Jason Peters has practiced this week and should be back at left tackle, the 34-year-old vet has experienced an injury-riddled season, missing two games and failing to finish two others. With Peters coming off an ankle injury against Detroit, it's possible Johnson will play both sides and face New England's full assortment of pass-rushers.
The secret to stopping Kelly's offense has long been exposed and is in plain view for anyone with access to coaches film. Shaky fundamentals let New England's defense down in crunch time against Denver, but a return to the basics should help the unit rebound against the flailing Eagles.
Key Players and Matchups
Every week in this space, we'll list two offensive and two defensive players critical to the game plan who haven't necessarily received much attention in the sections above. Not all of these selections will necessarily be the most obvious choices, but each figures to play a key factor in New England's chances of victory.
Jamie Collins
The long-awaited return of New England's most explosive and versatile defender couldn't come at a better time. Though the Pats would surely prefer to ease Collins back after a month away from game action, the Hightower-less defense will likely need him to play the vast majority of the snaps, with only intermittent rest in between.
We discussed the importance of better run defense from New England's linebackers, and Collins has always proved adept at knifing through gaps to disrupt rushing plays in the backfield. Additionally, watch to see if the Pats are willing to give him full coverage duties right away, as he'll likely need to cover the shifty Darren Sproles at times.
Sebastian Vollmer
After Marcus Cannon started at left tackle in his Week 10 return, Vollmer flipped back to the blind side against the Broncos last week. The switch was due in part to Cannon's toe injury on his right foot, which apparently prevented him from playing with proper technique on the left side. Given that Cannon's toe injury has lingered for nearly two months now, one would expect Vollmer to remain on the blind side indefinitely, if not for the rest of the season.
Vollmer had his share of issues against Von Miller last week, but this week won't require him to win such a clean one-on-one matchup. Philly will deploy Connor Barwin, Brandon Graham and Vinny Curry as weak-side rushers, so Vollmer should see a variety of rushers, which require him to stay on his toes this week.
Devin McCourty
With the Pats using three- and even four-safety sets in recent weeks, McCourty has played quite a bit of slot corner when teams utilize big inside receivers. The Eagles certainly fall into that category, as Philly deploys its top receiver, Jordan Matthews, as the No. 3 in lots of 3x1 formations, meaning that Matthews is the innermost slot receiver.
Granted, even though the second-year pro leads Philadelphia in targets (89), receptions (58) and receiving yards (625), he hasn't been particularly dangerous on a down-to-down basis and has had issues with drops. Still, with Matthews likely to see the most balls from Bradford, look for the Pats to utilize their best cover man on the Eagles' top inside receiver when possible.
Danny Amendola
This is a bit of an obvious selection, but with how thin the Pats are offensively, it stands to reason they'll lean on their stable stars. Amendola now falls into that category. He certainly did a nice job of replicating Julian Edelman's production against the Buffalo Bills two weeks ago (nine catches, 117 yards in less than three quarters), but the Pats need him to make it through the full 60 minutes this time.
Besides his almost guaranteed feature role in the offense, also watch to see if Amendola retains his role as the kick and punt returner. New England's midweek moves suggest that Belichick views Amendola as too valuable to the offense to expose to increased hits, as both Damaris Johnson and Trey Williams can inherit the returner jobs and keep Amendola confined to a purely offensive role.
Prediction
With Tom Brady as the starter, the Patriots have lost back-to-back games on just eight occasions and have not done so since September 2012. When recalling how furious Brady and the rest of the locker room was after losing a double-digit fourth-quarter lead last week, it's easy to envision a highly motivated Patriots squad taking the field.
Philadelphia has not demonstrated much mental toughness in recent weeks, so a fast start could potentially run the Eagles off the field. Of course, New England has had its share of first-quarter difficulties the past two weeks, scoring just 10 points against Buffalo and Denver. Even with Gronkowski in the lineup, the offense hasn't been able to deliver a knockout punch in either game, allowing the Bills to hang around and giving the Broncos enough opportunities to complete the comeback.
Still, despite being an unfamiliar opponent, the Eagles present less of a schematic challenge than most NFC teams. In other words, the Patriots have likely been able to spend less time worrying about Philadelphia's scheme and tendencies and more time re-drilling the fundamentals and situational execution that escaped them against Denver.
Even as battered as they are, the Patriots have no excuse for a letdown if home-field advantage remains the top priority. Perseverance has always been a defining characteristic of Belichick's squads, and look for the Pats to flash that trait as they return to the win column on Sunday.
Prediction: Patriots 27, Eagles 17
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