New York Giants vs. New England Patriots: What's the Game Plan for New England?
For the New England Patriots, the best-laid plans of mice and men have gone horribly awry in recent meetings against the New York Giants. The G-Men have been the kryptonite to the Superman act of the Tom Brady-Bill Belichick era, defeating the Patriots in three of the team's past four meetings, two of which came in the Super Bowl.
Maybe the Patriots will get a third chance at redemption in the big game, as these two teams have met the last two times they've faced off in the regular season (2007 and 2011). Of course, the ghosts of past matchups will have very little bearing on this matchup, where the 8-0 Patriots hold a distinct talent advantage.
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That doesn't mean the Pats are infallible, however, especially given the spate of injuries that have robbed New England of dynamic running back Dion Lewis and depleted the now-unrecognizable offensive line. The NFC East-leading Giants have been an unsteady bunch, but they do possess the high-end talent to give the Patriots' unblemished record a serious scare.
Being the superior team on paper hasn't always worked for the Patriots in this matchup. Read on for complete analysis of how New England can avoid another upset at the hands of the Giants.
Offensive Game Plan
Perhaps I jinxed Rob Gronkowski last week in suggesting that New England's All-Pro tight end would post a signature game against a seemingly exploitable Washington defense. Between the Patriots' run-heavy approach, two turnovers and spotty red-zone efficiency, Gronk was actually held to his worst statistical output of the season (four catches, 47 yards).
Nevertheless, we'll run it back with the same assertion this week: Gronkowski really should feast against a vulnerable back seven that appears ill-equipped to contain him. The Giants' safety corps has been ravaged by injuries this season, with New York having five safeties on injured reserve. Along with rookie Landon Collins, post-training camp signees Brandon Meriweather and Craig Dahl have come together to form New York's motley group of safeties.
That subpar personnel, combined with a season-ending injury to top coverage linebacker Jon Beason, has allowed opposing tight ends to exploit the Giants. According to Football Outsiders' DVOA metric, the Giants rank 25th in pass coverage against tight ends, having conceded a league-high 79.4 receiving yards per game to the position.
In reviewing the film, it's telling how, repeatedly, tight ends have gotten past Big Blue's coverage linebackers to threaten the deep seams of the field:
In the first screenshot, which features a Ben Watson touchdown, we can also see the poor angle Collins takes to cut off the pass. The rookie out of Alabama was seen as more of a box safety who needed development in coverage, but the injuries have forced him into a much more multidimensional role right away.
Collins is raw in the deep half; coupled with the limitations of Meriweather and Dahl, it's not hard to see why New York has been spotty defending the middle of the field.
Obviously, the seam route to Gronkowski is a huge part of New England's passing repertoire, and the matchup should be winnable if Brady gets time. Unfortunately for the Pats, that's no longer an assurance, given the injuries along the offensive line. With starting tackles Marcus Cannon and Sebastian Vollmer both declared out for this game, the Patriots will probably start Cameron Fleming at left tackle and Bryan Stork at right tackle.
Neither Fleming nor Stork had ever played those positions at the NFL level before last week, and while the Giants possess a fairly toothless pass rush (32nd in sack percentage, per TeamRankings.com), New York did get its best pass-rusher back last week. Jason Pierre-Paul played a sub-package role against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but he was surprisingly effective in his first action since his infamous fireworks accident.
Pro Football Focus gave JPP credit for six total pressures against the Bucs, most of which came in crunch time. On back-to-back plays late in the fourth quarter, he beat left tackle Donovan Smith with a rip move around the corner, exhibiting the quick first step and speed that have defined his game for years:
Pierre-Paul didn't use his damaged club hand on either play, but as a right defensive end, his inside arm still gives him the quickest direct access into the body of the tackle. Fleming has had issues with speed moves from Muhammad Wilkerson and Cameron Wake in recent weeks, so whether he's able to handle Pierre-Paul's length and quickness should play a large factor in whether Brady has enough time to exploit New York's depleted back seven.
Of course, we should also expect to see a fairly consistent dose of LeGarrette Blount. New England ran the ball a season-high 37 times against Washington last week, and while the Giants have a statistically respectable run defense, New York has seen its fortunes change in recent weeks. After conceding just 3.13 yards per rush attempt through the first four weeks of the year, second best in the league, the Giants have since hemorrhaged 4.9 yards per carry, 26th in the league since Week 5.
Much of the damage came from the zone-running schemes of Dallas and Philadelphia, neither of which bears a strong resemblance to the Patriots' more power-oriented running game. However, with Beason and top defensive tackle Jonathan Hankins out for the season, New York has also lost two core front-seven players who used to anchor the middle.
Makeshift offensive lines tend to fare better in run-blocking than pass protection, since the offensive line gets to dictate to the defensive line off the snap rather than reacting to whatever pressure schemes or pass-rush moves the defense throws at them. As juicy as the matchups in the passing game might appear, look for the Pats to also establish the ground game early to ward off New York's pass rush.
Defensive Game Plan
Any defensive game plan against the Giants starts with Odell Beckham Jr. The sophomore receiver hasn't quite maintained his historic rookie year pace, but nevertheless, he ranks sixth in receptions (59), fourth in receiving yards (759) and is tied for second in receiving touchdowns (seven). Consequently, it's not difficult to decipher where Bill Belichick and Matt Patricia have devoted the majority of his attention this week.
However, while Beckham's bottom-line stat totals look strong, the Giants' top receiver hasn't been the consistent play-to-play terror he was in 2014.
In particular, defenses have been effective at neutralizing Beckham in the second half. Following New York's ugly 27-7 loss to Philly four weeks ago, NJ.com's James Kratch noted how the Eagles' bracket coverage completely eliminated Beckham from the game after halftime:
"The Eagles were double-covering Beckham with a low defender and a high defender, Giants coach Tom Coughlin said. Eagles defensive coordinator Billy Davis said his unit doubled Beckham for most of the night, and his touchdown catch was the lone breakdown. The Eagles also threw some looks at the Giants they have not shown all year to confuse.
But, this was not just the Eagles putting together a strong effort on defense in the second half. Rather, Beckham's lack of production in the second half was a continuation of a trend the Giants need to reverse, and fast. Because Beckham being "taken out" of games after halftime is becoming a weekly issue.
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The Giants have played four more games since, but the first- and second-half trends haven't really changed:
| Targets | 56 | 36 |
| Receptions | 37 | 22 |
| Rec. Yards | 451 | 308 |
| TDs | 4 | 3 |
As a man-oriented, single-high safety type of defense, Philadelphia's coverage scheme has a lot of overlap with what New England likes to run. Thus, the Week 4 game, which was New York's most lopsided loss of the season, might be instructive for the Patriots.
Philly chose to play press coverage throughout the game, bracketing Beckham with a safety shaded toward his side while devoting other resources to underneath zones. The game plan placed a lot of faith in the Eagles pass rush, as well as the secondary corners to hold up in iso man coverage:
Philadelphia generated consistent pressure on Eli Manning through this game plan, a byproduct of the Giants' shoddy receiver depth and the Eagles' pass-rushing depth. With Jabaal Sheard potentially returning after a three-game absence, New England should have its full complement of edge-rushing depth for the first time since Week 6.
Sheard's return alongside Chandler Jones and Rob Ninkovich would also arrive at a particularly timely moment, given the struggles of Giants offensive tackles Ereck Flowers and Marshall Newhouse.
According to PFF's pass-blocking efficiency stat, both are among the bottom quarter in terms of pass protection among tackles this season. Flowers and Newhouse have combined to surrender 65 of New York's 110 quarterback pressures, which should have Jones, Ninkovich and Sheard salivating for passing downs on Sunday.
New York's rushing attack shouldn't represent a big factor. The Giants run the ball on less than 40 percent of their offensive plays and average a meager 3.8 yards per attempt (25th in the league). Advanced metrics aren't a fan of the G-Men's ground game either, as they rank 24th in rushing DVOA.
Thus, New England should see plenty of old friend Shane Vereen, who is on pace for career highs in receptions and receiving yards this season. While Vereen remains a situational passing back, the Giants haven't been nearly as creative with him as the Patriots were.
This season, Vereen has lined up almost exclusively as an offset back in shotgun formations, which allows him to generate leverage on routes against linebackers:
However, New York rarely aligns him out wide, and Giants offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo doesn't call many screen passes. The majority of Vereen's targets have come on either checkdowns, flat routes or angle routes, like the one in the screenshot above. Covering the slippery back will be a challenge without Jamie Collins, but Jonathan Freeny appears to possess the adequate lateral-movement skills to at least challenge Vereen.
Against a pass-oriented Giants team lacking weapons such as Victor Cruz and Larry Donnell, look for the Pats to hone in on Beckham and Vereen. Reuben Randle and Dwayne Harris might subsequently win their share of battles, but those kinds of matchups should favor New England over the course of the game.
Key Players and Matchups
Every week in this space, we'll list two offensive and two defensive players critical to the game plan who haven't necessarily received much attention in the sections above. Not all of these selections will necessarily be the most obvious choices, but each figures to play a key factor in New England's chances of victory.
Chandler Jones
As alluded to in the defensive game plan section, Jones could be in for a big day against the rookie left tackle Flowers. The league's sack leader with 9.5 take downs, Jones is on pace for 19 sacks, which would shatter his previous career high of 11.5 set back in 2013.
Jones' sacks have been clustered this season; he's had three games with multiple sacks, but also three games without a single sack. New York runs a quick-strike West Coast passing game, which could limit the overall chances for pressure, but in longer down-and-distance situations, expect Jones to wreak havoc in the Giants backfield.
Danny Amendola
Sophomore running back James White should bear the majority of the burden in replacing Dion Lewis, but Amendola could also see an uptick in usage. With Brandon LaFell back at full speed the past two weeks, Amendola has played just 48 percent of the offensive snaps in that period, down from his 61.1 percent clip over the first seven weeks, per PFF.
Given his effectiveness on wide receiver screens this year, Amendola could see more featured plays as the Pats work around the loss of Lewis. Apart from Julian Edelman, Amendola might be New England's most dangerous yards-after-the-catch threat, making him an integral part of the roster moving forward.
Dont'a Hightower
Hightower saw his role reduced last week, playing a niche role while Freeny took control of the linebacker corps. Earlier this week, though, Hightower explained on sports radio WEEI (via ESPN.com) that the reduction in playing time was due to "a little virus" and suggested he would be at full strength for the Giants.
Though Freeny played well as the defensive signal-caller last week, expect Hightower to assume that role in Collins' absence this week. And given that Hightower is also at his best attacking the line of scrimmage, he should also play a significant factor as a blitzer on stunts and A-gap rushes throughout the game.
Michael Williams
An afterthought when the Pats traded for him at the end of training camp, Williams has since carved out a significant niche as the No. 2 blocking tight end. Williams has received more playing time than Scott Chandler, who received more fanfare as a free-agent arrival and even played a few snaps at right tackle last week when Stork needed a breather.
It wouldn't be surprising to see Williams play some tackle again this week, in addition to his normal role in "12" personnel packages (2 WR, 2 TE, 1 RB). The Pats will likely seek to keep extra blockers in to aid this ragtag offensive line, potentially resulting in an uptick of snaps for Williams.
Prediction
This isn't the first time the Patriots have possessed the clear talent edge over the Giants. There's very little personnel overlap from the last time these two teams met four years ago, but with the same head coach-quarterback combination on each sideline, the media has reopened some old wounds for New England this week.
Nonetheless, with the laser focus this year's squad has exhibited, it's hard to imagine the Patriots experiencing a letdown against the Giants. Those past meetings hold no meaning for the majority of the roster, so while Brady and Belichick might harbor a little extra juice for New York, the trip to MetLife Stadium should be business as usual for most of the roster.
After a relatively breezy three-game homestand, the Pats' next four games against the Jets, Buffalo Bills, Denver Broncos and Philadelphia Eagles will represent the toughest stretch of their season and the most serious threat to their perfect record. The 16-0 talk has sounded premature for most of the year, but if the Pats escape the next month unscathed, it will finally sound legitimate.
Reaching that endpoint starts with a strong performance on Sunday. As always, the Giants have the high-end talent and stable leadership to give New England everything it can handle. However, expect a happier ending for the Patriots in this meeting.
Prediction: Patriots 35, Giants 25
Spread information courtesy of Odds Shark.
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